Strategic Imperative: Green Steel as India's Climate Trajectory Determinant

INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT: India's industrial decarbonization pathway faces a critical inflection point, with green steel emerging as the decisive variable in climate goal attainment. Analysis indicates that continued investment in carbon-intensive steel production technologies represents not merely an environmental liability but a profound economic vulnerability. The current trajectory, if unaltered, risks locking in billions in stranded assets while compromising India's competitive positioning in global markets increasingly shaped by carbon border mechanisms. Our assessment concludes that accelerated transition to hydrogen-based and renewable-powered steel manufacturing constitutes a strategic necessity. This pivot would simultaneously mitigate climate impacts, enhance energy security through reduced fossil fuel dependence, and position Indian industry for leadership in emerging green markets. Failure to prioritize this transition would impose severe long-term costs, including trade disadvantages, increased carbon compliance burdens, and diminished attractiveness for sustainable investment. The window for decisive action is narrowing; immediate policy alignment and industrial mobilization are required to transform this sectoral challenge into a national economic opportunity.