Economic Survey 2025-26 Reveals Critical Disconnect: Educational Attainment Rises as Employment Certainty Declines, Setting Stage for Budgetary Litmus Test

The Economic Survey 2025-26 presents a stark analytical portrait of India's evolving human capital landscape, identifying a troubling divergence between rising educational qualifications and diminishing employment security. The report delineates three critical fracture points where the system loses talent: post-Class 8 attrition, the precarious school-to-work transition, and the accelerating emigration of students pursuing predictable career pathways abroad. This analysis arrives on the eve of the Union Budget, transforming the fiscal conversation from mere scheme proliferation to a fundamental test of structural reinforcement. The central budgetary question now pivots on whether public expenditure can fortify these identified weak joints in the education-employment continuum. The imperative is to construct a public infrastructure of opportunity robust enough that families no longer feel compelled to invest private resources—often at significant cost—to purchase the certainty that the formal system currently fails to guarantee. This intelligence suggests the forthcoming budget will serve as a key indicator of the government's strategic commitment to aligning educational output with labor market demands and stemming the outflow of human capital seeking stability elsewhere.