NEW DELHI: The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) has revised its GDP growth forecast for India to 6.4 per cent for the financial year 2024-25 marking a notable reduction from its September 2024 estimate of 7.0 per cent. GDP growth for the year 2023-2024 was recorded at 8.2 per cent.
FICCI’s forecast for 2025
According to FICCI’s latest economic outlook for 2025, conducted in December 2024, the Indian economy will be undergoing cautious optimism.
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Sector wise outlook
Consumer spending is expected to increase, supported by positive prospects in agriculture and rural consumption.
Growth is likely to be driven by government-led investments in infrastructure, housing, and logistics.
Private capital expenditure, on the other hand, may remain muted due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and uneven domestic demand.
The agricultural sector, including allied activities, is projected to grow at 3.6 per cent in FY 2024-25. The industrial and services sectors are expected to expand by 6.3 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively.
Economic activity is anticipated to gather pace in the latter half of the fiscal year, driven by higher public capital expenditure, festive demand, and the normalisation of industrial activity following the monsoon.
Inflation is expected to ease, with consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation forecasted at 4.8 per cent for 2024-25, aligning with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) projections.
Food inflation, which has strained household budgets over the past year, is also likely to moderate, offering relief to consumers.
Attracting foreign investment
The report also highlights emerging opportunities in manufacturing, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, as global supply chains gradually diversify away from China. Economists have called for targeted policies to attract foreign direct investment and boost India’s manufacturing competitiveness.
The survey highlights the resilience of the global economy despite continuous uncertainties. Easing inflation in advanced economies, relaxed monetary policies, and recovery in interest-sensitive sectors are expected to support growth. However, risks such as geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and climate-induced disruptions remain significant.
Budget 2025
With the Union budget 2025-26 set to be announced on 1 February, economists have stressed the importance of reviving private consumption. Other recommendations include reviewing tax structures to boost disposable income, enhancing welfare programmes like MGNREGA and PMAY, and increasing investments in agriculture and rural infrastructure.
To manage inflation and improve productivity, the survey advises measures to enhance cold storage capacity, streamline supply chains, and reduce food wastage.
Additionally, the Indian economy could benefit from supply chain realignments and emerging opportunities in electronics and renewable energy sectors, despite short-term challenges posed by global trade policies and geopolitical tensions.
Economists have also recommended diversifying export markets, developing advanced industrial clusters, and deepening collaborations in key areas such as artificial intelligence, clean energy, and cybersecurity to strengthen economic resilience and ensure sustained growth.
