Is Haryana’s surprise election result a harbinger for Maharashtra?

The first round of Assembly elections in the second half of 2024 has concluded, with a surprising outcome in Haryana. The BJP secured a hat-trick victory in the State, defying predictions from pollsters and political analysts who had favoured the Congress.

This result was unexpected due to several factors that seemed to be working against the BJP: a resurgent Congress following the Lok Sabha election, 10 years of anti-incumbency against the BJP-led government, farmers’ unrest, the Agniveer scheme, and wrestlers’ protests. However, these elements failed to translate into votes for the Congress. Instead, the BJP made history by winning a third consecutive term in the northern State.

In the wake of the BJP’s victory, political pundits began drawing comparisons between Haryana and Maharashtra, the latter set to go to the polls next month. Despite Haryana’s campaign rhetoric calling for change, similar sentiments are believed to be brewing in Maharashtra. The proximity of the elections and perceived similarities between the States invite such comparisons.

Caste dynamics

Caste politics is a primary point of comparison. In Haryana, the Congress relied on a Jat-Dalit combination, while in Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which is part of the INDIA bloc, banks on consolidating Maratha, Muslim, and Dalit votes. Maratha reservation has been a significant issue in recent Lok Sabha elections. Just as the BJP successfully rallied non-Jat castes in Haryana, many speculate that non-Maratha groups might unite against the MVA in Maharashtra. In Haryana, Jats comprise 25 per cent of the population and Dalits 20 per cent, while in Maharashtra, Marathas account for 30 per cent, Dalits 12 per cent, and Muslims 11 per cent. However, the similarities in caste dynamics end here.

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Maharashtra’s caste politics is more intricate. The reservation issue has intensified identity pride across various communities. Marathas demand inclusion in OBC reservations, a request the Eknath Shinde-led Mahayuti (grand alliance) government has accepted but not yet implemented, leading to fragmentation within the community. The Dhangar community, currently in the OBC-NT category, seeks Scheduled Tribe (ST) status, unsettling the existing ST population, which constitutes 9 per cent of the total. In the recent Lok Sabha election, the Mahayuti secured only one of the four ST seats in Maharashtra, down from a clean sweep in 2014 and 2019. This underscores the distinct nature of Maharashtra’s caste politics compared to Haryana’s.

Maharashtra’s farming crisis

The agrarian crisis forms another point of comparison. Farmers in Haryana were expected to vote against the BJP due to agricultural distress and protests against Central agricultural reform bills. But the results suggest a different reality. In Maharashtra, the farming crisis is equally serious, though farmers were less vocal during the Delhi protests two years ago. Falling prices of key crops like cotton, soybean, and onion significantly impacted BJP’s performance in 18 Lok Sabha seats in May. To address this, the Mahayuti government has implemented measures such as transferring Rs.5,000 per hectare (up to 2 hectares) to 65 lakh cotton and soybean farmers, bridging the gap between minimum support price and market price. The Central government has also lifted the export ban and heavy duty on onions, aiming to bolster the Mahayuti’s standing among farmers.

With the Maharashtra election slated for mid-November 2024, coinciding with the cotton and soybean harvest, the Mahayuti faces the challenge of ensuring favourable prices for farmers’ produce. Real-time management of the agricultural market is a formidable task that will significantly influence voting patterns, particularly in the Vidarbha and Marathwada regions.

Two factors favour the Mahayuti: a good monsoon season and the Ladki Bahin (beloved sister) scheme. A favourable monsoon typically boosts farmers’ morale, especially if crop prices are satisfactory. The Ladki Bahin scheme has already reached 1.85 crore women out of 4.6 crore female voters in the State. The Mahayuti also benefits from control over government machinery, although this is a double-edged sword. Overuse could backfire, but in today’s micro-managed elections, such control can be advantageous.

A new and significant factor in Maharashtra, absent in Haryana, is subnational pride. The splitting of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena is perceived as Delhi’s attack on Maharashtra, causing visible resentment among the public. The exodus of industrial projects to Gujarat, such as Foxconn, Vedanta, Pharma Cluster, and International Financial Centre, has raised concerns. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah hailing from Gujarat, suspicions of favouritism towards Gujarat over Maharashtra have intensified. If the MVA capitalises on this sentiment, it could prove decisive.

Political dynamics

Efforts to create a multi-cornered contest are underway. The MVA comprises the Congress, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray), and the NCP (Sharad Pawar), while the Mahayuti includes the BJP, the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), and the NCP (Ajit Pawar). A potential third front is emerging, with Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena and Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi planning to contest independently. These moves are seen as attempts to divide anti-BJP votes. If the MVA can learn from recent experiences in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana to polarise the battle between itself and Mahayuti, it might consolidate non-National Democratic Alliance votes, a possibility demonstrated in the Lok Sabha election.

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Alliance politics in Maharashtra is more complex than in Haryana. While the Congress in Haryana refused to accommodate the AAP and the Samajwadi Party, the MVA in Maharashtra faces internal seat-sharing challenges, although not yet critical. The Mahayuti’s seat-sharing issues are more pronounced, with the BJP eyeing 150 seats, Eknath Shinde 100, and Ajit Pawar 80, creating tension in allocating the State’s 288 seats.

These nuances reveal that despite similarities on the surface, Maharashtra and Haryana’s political realities differ significantly. The Haryana results primarily impact the BJP, boosting its cadre’s morale after setbacks in the Lok Sabha election in Maharashtra. For the opposition, these results offer a chance to refine strategies and bolster unity.