Is Engineer Rashid’s release a game-changer in the Kashmir election?

Despite allegations that he is a “proxy” of the BJP, Sheikh Abdul “Engineer” Rashid—with his “shared victimhood” narrative—seems to have struck a chord with a section of the electorate in Kashmir, much to the chagrin of established parties.

“This naya Kashmir is a Kashmir of atrocities, killings, and torture…” said Engineer Rashid at a rally in North Kashmir’s small town of Delina on September 12.

His statement resonated deeply among a few thousand people who had gathered in Delina to hear and catch a glimpse of the parliamentarian speak at his first rally since being released from Tihar Jail. Among them was 29-year-old Waseem Ahmed from Malangam village in Bandipora district, who had travelled over 31 km to attend the event.

“Every Kashmiri feels this but is too afraid to speak up,” Ahmed said, referring to Rashid’s criticism of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s vision of “Naya Kashmir”, which the saffron party claims is a new golden era for Jammu and Kashmir since the revocation of the erstwhile State’s special status. “Only Rashid truly understands the suffering of ordinary Kashmiris because he has endured it himself.”

Rashid, who was arrested in the run-up to the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 and charged under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) that accused him of funding separatist activities in Jammu and Kashmir, was addressing his first rally following his interim bail from a Delhi court to campaign for the ongoing Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election.

Following his release, Rashid did not pull his punches. He called for resolution of the Kashmir issue, highlighted the plight of Kashmiri prisoners needing medical attention, and repeatedly vowed to fight for the restoration of Article 370.

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“Unlike other leaders, only Rashid has the will to fight Modi,” Ahmed told Frontline in Delina. “When other leaders came out of captivity [after Article 370 was revoked], they acted like nothing had changed. People heard their cries for power, not for Kashmir’s suffering.”

Others at the rally shared similar sentiments. Mohammed Nazim Bhat, a 32-year-old salesman from Azad Gunj in Baramulla, attended the rally despite his family’s support for the National Conference (NC). “My family has long supported the NC,” Bhat said. “But since 2019, Rashid has suffered far more than the entire NC. Why shouldn’t I support someone who truly understands my pain?”

Disruptor or ‘proxy’?

However, besides highlighting distinct perspectives, Rashid’s release has also introduced a fresh dynamic to Kashmir’s politics, making him appear more disruptive. While mainstream parties in Kashmir are trying to capitalise on the anger against New Delhi for its actions since August 5, 2019, many political observers believe Rashid resonates with the deep-seated humiliation felt by ordinary Kashmiris who find his return as a revival of resilient politics, filling a void left by Delhi that even the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) could not address. This shift could significantly affect the political landscape by drawing votes away from established regional parties and altering expected election outcomes.

Even though Rashid won the Lok Sabha election by outmanoeuvring heavyweights like former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and People’s Conference chief Sajad Lone with a margin of over 4 lakh votes, his party, the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), appeared to lose momentum after the victory.

Several AIP leaders resigned after the party chose to field new candidates in several Assembly segments instead of loyalists. However, Rashid’s bail has somewhat revived his party’s fortunes, although it has also brought with it accusations of being a “proxy”. Since his release, Omar Abdullah, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) president Mehbooba Mufti, and Sajad Lone have labelled Rashid as yet another addition to the BJP’s list of proxies in Kashmir.

“PDP’s youth leader Waheed [Parra] was given bail in a UAPA case by the same court, Farooq Abdullah was given a clean chit in a scam case by the court, and Lone’s brother is with Hurriyat while he himself is with BJP,” AIP leader and Rashid’s brother Sheikh Khursheed told Frontline. “But, these parties have an issue with Rashid’s bail. This shows AIP and Rashid have both unnerved them.”

The allegations against Rashid may strike a chord with many Kashmiris, especially since New Delhi has been attempting to forge different alliances with new political fronts that have largely followed its directives regarding the region’s altered political landscape.

“Since 1953, New Delhi has been trying to cut down the hegemony of regional parties in the valley,” said a political observer, wishing not to be named. “Rashid’s unleashing on the scene is all about devouring the cadre supremacy of a particular party. He may not be directly involved but Rashid’s presence is Delhi’s gain.”

Unconventional approach

Ironically, beyond the allegations, Rashid’s engagement in non-traditional politics and his confrontational style make him more formidable than other political leaders in the race. The same unconventional approach could disrupt many political equations in the Assembly election.

As a two-time legislator from the Langate Assembly seat, Rashid has a history of boldly confronting Delhi and State governments on the issue of Kashmir. While many might have changed during five years of imprisonment, Rashid stands out as an exception.

“After his release, he immediately returned to being the same defiant politician willing to confront Delhi,” the observer noted. “After 2019, no other political leader has maintained such a firm stance against Delhi. In that context, Rashid’s politics now reflects resilience against Central rule in Kashmir. This role used to belong to separatists, who had greater acceptance among the public than mainstream parties. Rashid has now consistently stepped into that space, effectively making the narrative of him being a proxy irrelevant.”

Rashid’s party, AIP, has fielded 34 candidates across Jammu and Kashmir, contesting 33 seats in the Kashmir Valley and only one in the Jammu region. Recently, the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and AIP also stitched an alliance for the upcoming election.

“The JeI and AIP alliance looks natural in a way—given the way they have been treated by the Centre since 2019,” said a senior journalist based in Kashmir. “While that may be a guiding commonality between the two, the alliance also reveals the lack of organisational capacity of the AIP, as it is still a new party.”

The critics, the journalist continued, might see it as some kind of an understanding between the two facilitated by external players. “But the JeI and AIP alliance fits the victim and sympathy narrative that actually helped Rashid win a Lok Sabha seat while being in jail,” he added.

Capitalising on resentment

What is new about Rashid’s resurgence is that established regional parties have recognised that his presence in the political arena has attracted a new constituency of voters, which they find disconcerting. This large group is made of Kashmiris who have boycotted elections for nearly three decades as a way to express their resentment against India.

“Since the eruption of militancy, a huge section of voters would always boycott elections. As a result, we used to have a substantial expectation about the turnout,” the senior journalist, who has reported on Assembly elections in Kashmir in the past, told Frontline. “With militancy at its lowest and people finding no outlet to their anger other than casting vote, the voting percentage in Kashmir might break the record of past elections—like we saw in the Lok Sabha election.”

Therefore, if, let us say 40 per cent of people used to vote earlier, he continued, it would be divided among different political players in the fray and the person who gets the most votes will be the winner. “With Rashid’s entry, as we saw in the Lok Sabha election also, a huge chunk of the ‘boycott constituency’ might get attracted to polling booths,” he added. “In that sense, if we have 70 per cent voting this election, we will be having a new constituency of voters who will be casting votes to only one contestant—Engineer Rashid.”

The journalist added: “In simple words, the traditional vote will be divided among traditional mainstream players while the boycott vote might go into the single kitty of Rashid. That’s why Rashid may not become a king himself, but he will certainly have a role in deciding who the king will be.”

Failure of PAGD

A year after the BJP-led Union government abrogated Jammu and Kashmir’s special status on August 5, 2019, and detained Kashmiri politicians, including three former Chief Ministers, these leaders came out of captivity and established the PAGD—a coalition of seven parties including the NC and the PDP.

However, the alliance failed, leaving Kashmiris puzzled and disillusioned. “The PAGD was, in a real sense, a promise of the NC and the PDP to the people that they will wage an honourable battle against Delhi to regain Kashmir’s lost status,” said the political observer mentioned earlier. “Ultimately, people could see through their bluff and realised that both have left them high and dry.”

The lack of a symbolic stance from established regional parties like the NC and PDP is seen as an advantage for Rashid, who is capitalising on the sentiments of ordinary Kashmiris. For many, it seems that the Valley-based political parties have accepted the new reality of Kashmir. In fact, during his first Facebook Live after his release, Rashid criticised the top leadership of the NC and the PDP for their previous alliances with the BJP.

Iltija Mufti, candidate from Bijbehara constituency and daughter of former Chief Minister and PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti, addresses her supporters on September 18. Rashid’s ascendance could add to PDP’s existing crises and lead to further erosion of its already dwindling support.
| Photo Credit:
TAUSEEF MUSTAFA

A few days later, during a press conference, Rashid targeted the NC and the PDP again, stating that Article 370 could not be restored by making statements from the comfort of homes. “When Amit Shah said no one can give back the statehood to Jammu and Kashmir except the BJP government, they [the NC and the PDP] did not even dare to say we will fight for it.”

“Both the NC and PDP have played a politics of compromise after 2019,” another political analyst based in Kashmir told Frontline. “People have come to understand that a change is needed, and Rashid aligns better with their interest.”

Even though the NC is still seen as one of the favourites due to its large cadre base, its former PAGD partner, PDP, is facing a crisis that could lead to further erosion of its already dwindling support.

“The PDP had always lived by the rhetoric of being a substitute to the National Conference,” Kashmir-based political scientist Noor Ahmad Baba told Frontline. “It failed because Rashid represents a more ethnic periphery in the politics and underlines the victimhood of Kashmiris more than the PDP.”

A PDP leader currently contesting the Assembly election told Frontline that rather than the NC, Rashid poses a “much bigger threat to our existence”. “People still remember what our government did in 2016… it was our failure,” said the PDP leader, wishing anonymity. “As we’re yet to apologise to the people for what happened, it’s hard for them to trust us.”

Will sympathy translate into votes?

Even though Rashid achieved what once seemed like a distant dream for his small party in the Lok Sabha election, political analysts like Baba believe that the support he garnered during that campaign has faded. “A parliamentary constituency hides a number of things,” Baba told Frontline. “Winning a parliamentary election doesn’t guarantee success in all segments of the Assembly [election].”

According to Baba, people have different kinds of approaches to two elections. “One is from the nationalistic point of view while people have more stakes in the Assembly election,” he explained. “They would see it from the point of view of governance and who is likely going to form the government.”

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Baba believes that Rashid, as a victim with a certain kind of political past, invoked a certain degree of sentiment and sensitivity among people. “But, that sentiment won’t necessarily translate into support for his party in this election,” he said, noting that Rashid’s party is unlikely to secure as much backing as he received in the parliamentary election.

“The kind of emotional appeal he had as a victim, as a prisoner, and as a representative of many Kashmiris who have suffered has all faded since his release,” Baba added. “He cannot dislodge an already existing party like NC.”

However, the first observer mentioned earlier believes that Rashid has done his homework well. “He hasn’t become embittered; instead, he has sharpened his stand and identified the loopholes in the existing parties, capitalising on them,” the observer said. “Even though people realise that Rashid’s claims, like those of other leaders, are also a facade, they connect well enough to make them a cheerleader for a while.”

He added: “Whether this cheering will sustain or not, only time will tell.”

Zaid Bin Shabir is a journalist based in Srinagar.