JPMorgan Chase faced an onslaught of new rules this year as Biden appointees pursued the most significant slate of regulations since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

Those efforts threaten tens of billions of dollars in industry revenue by slashing fees that banks impose on credit cards and overdrafts and radically revising the capital and risk framework they operate in. The fate of all of those measures is at risk if Trump is elected.

Trump is expected to nominate appointees for key financial regulators, including the CFPB, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that could result in a weakening or killing off completely of the myriad rules in play.

“The Biden administration’s regulatory agenda across sectors has been very ambitious, especially in finance, and large swaths of it stand to be rolled back by Trump appointees if he wins,” said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy at Wolfe Research.

Bank CEOs and consultants say it would be a relief if aspects of the Biden era — an aggressive CFPB, regulators who discouraged most mergers and elongated times for deal approvals — were dialed back.

“It certainly helps if the president is Republican, and the odds tilt more favorably for the industry if it’s a Republican sweep” in Congress, said the CEO of a bank with nearly $100 billion in assets who declined to be identified speaking about regulators.

Still, some observers point out that Trump 2.0 might not be as friendly to the industry as his first time in office.

Trump’s vice presidential pick, Sen. JD Vance, of Ohio, has often criticized Wall Street banks, and Trump last month began pushing an idea to cap credit card interest rates at 10%, a move that if enacted would have seismic implications for the industry.

Bankers also say that Harris won’t necessarily cater to traditional Democratic Party ideas that have made life tougher for banks. Unless Democrats seize both chambers of Congress as well as the presidency, it may be difficult to get agency heads approved if they’re considered partisan picks, experts note.

“I would not write off the vice president as someone who’s automatically going to go more progressive,” said Lindsey Johnson, head of the Consumer Bankers Association, a trade group for big U.S. retail banks.

— Hugh Son

Inflation Reduction Act.

Harris hasn’t been as vocal a supporter of EVs lately amid slower-than-expected consumer adoption of the vehicles and consumer pushback. She has said she does not support an EV mandate such as the Zero-Emission Vehicles Act of 2019, which she cosponsored during her time as a senator, that would have required automakers to sell only electrified vehicles by 2040. Still, auto industry executives and officials expect a Harris presidency would be largely a continuation, though not a copy, of the past four years of Biden’s EV policy.

They expect some potential leniency on federal fuel economy regulations but minimal changes to the billions of dollars in incentives under the IRA.

— Mike Wayland

more than $4 trillion a year.

Despite spending more on health care than any other wealthy country, the U.S. has the lowest life expectancy at birth, the highest rate of people with multiple chronic diseases and the highest maternal and infant death rates, according to the Commonwealth Fund, an independent research group.

Meanwhile, roughly half of American adults say it is difficult to afford health-care costs, which can drive some into debt or lead them to put off necessary care, according to a May poll conducted by health policy research organization KFF. 

Both Harris and Trump have taken aim at the pharmaceutical industry and proposed efforts to lower prescription drug prices in the U.S., which are nearly three times higher than those seen in other countries. 

But many of Trump’s efforts to lower costs have been temporary or not immediately effective, health policy experts said. Meanwhile, Harris, if elected, can build on existing efforts of the Biden administration to deliver savings to more patients, they said.

Harris specifically plans to expand certain provisions of the IRA, part of which aims to lower health-care costs for seniors enrolled in Medicare. Harris cast the tie-breaking Senate vote to pass the law in 2022. 

Her campaign says she plans to extend two provisions to all Americans, not just seniors: a $2,000 annual cap on out-of-pocket drug spending and a $35 limit on monthly insulin costs. 

Harris also intends to accelerate and expand a provision allowing Medicare to directly negotiate drug prices with manufacturers for the first time. Drugmakers fiercely oppose those price talks, with some challenging the effort’s constitutionality in court. 

Trump hasn’t publicly indicated what he intends to do about IRA provisions.

Some of Trump’s prior efforts to lower drug prices “didn’t really come into fruition” during his presidency, according to Dr. Mariana Socal, a professor of health policy and management at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

For example, he planned to use executive action to have Medicare pay no more than the lowest price that select other developed countries pay for drugs, a proposal that was blocked by court action and later rescinded. 

Trump also led multiple efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, including its expansion of Medicaid to low-income adults. In a campaign video in April, Trump said he was not running on terminating the ACA and would rather make it “much, much better and far less money,” though he has provided no specific plans. 

He reiterated his belief that the ACA was “lousy health care” during his Sept. 10 debate with Harris. But when asked he did not offer a replacement proposal, saying only that he has “concepts of a plan.”

— Annika Kim Constantino

Paramount Global and Skydance Media is set to move forward, with plans to close in the first half of 2025, many in media have said the Biden administration has broadly chilled deal-making.

“We just need an opportunity for deregulation, so companies can consolidate and do what we need to do even better,” Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav said in July at Allen & Co.’s annual Sun Valley conference.

Media mogul John Malone recently told MoffettNathanson analysts that some deals are a nonstarter with this current Justice Department, including mergers between companies in the telecommunications and cable broadband space.

Still, it’s unclear how the regulatory environment could or would change depending on which party is in office. Disney was allowed to acquire Fox Corp.’s assets when Trump was in office, but his administration sued to block AT&T’s merger with Time Warner. Meanwhile, under Biden’s presidency, a federal judge blocked the sale of Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House, but Amazon’s acquisition of MGM was approved. 

“My sense is, regardless of the election outcome, we are likely to remain in a similar tighter regulatory environment when looking at media industry dealmaking,” said Marc DeBevoise, CEO and board director of Brightcove, a streaming technology company.

When major media, and even tech, assets change hands, it could also mean increased scrutiny on those in control and whether it creates bias on the platforms.

“Overall, the government and FCC have always been most concerned with having a diversity of voices,” said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Integrated Media, which specializes in digital media investment.
“But then [Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter] happened, and it’s clearly showing you can skew a platform to not just what the business needs, but to maybe your personal approach and whims,” he said.

Since Musk acquired the social media platform in 2022, changing its name to X, he has implemented sweeping changes including cutting staff and giving “amnesty” to previously suspended accounts, including Trump’s, which had been suspended following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection. Musk has also faced widespread criticism from civil rights groups for the amplification of bigotry on the platform.

Musk has publicly endorsed Trump, and was recently on the campaign trail with the former president. “As you can see, I’m not just MAGA, I’m Dark MAGA,” Musk said at a recent event. The billionaire has raised funds for Republican causes, and Trump has suggested Musk could eventually play a role in his administration if the Republican candidate were to be reelected.

During his first term, Trump took a particularly hard stance against journalists, and pursued investigations into leaks from his administration to news organizations. Under Biden, the White House has been notably more amenable to journalists. 

Also top of mind for media executives — and government officials — is TikTok.

Lawmakers have argued that TikTok’s Chinese ownership could be a national security risk.

Earlier this year, Biden signed legislation that gives Chinese parent ByteDance until January to find a new owner for the platform or face a U.S. ban. TikTok has said the bill, the Protecting Americans From Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which passed with bipartisan support, violates the First Amendment. The platform has sued the government to stop a potential ban.

While Trump was in office, he attempted to ban TikTok through an executive order, but the effort failed. However, he has more recently switched to supporting the platform, arguing that without it there’s less competition against Meta’s Facebook and other social media.

— Lillian Rizzo and Alex Sherman

Washington Post previously reported.

In keeping with the campaign’s more labor-friendly approach, Harris is also pledging to eliminate the tip credit: In 37 states, employers only have to pay tipped workers the minimum wage as long as that hourly wage and tips add up to the area’s pay floor. Since 1991, the federal pay floor for tipped wages has been stuck at $2.13.

“In the short term, if [restaurants] have to pay higher wages to their waiters, they’re going to have to raise menu prices, which is going to lower demand,” said Michael Lynn, a tipping expert and Cornell University professor.

— Amelia Lucas

has said she and Biden “reject the false choice that suggests we can either protect the public or advance innovation.” Last year, the White House issued an executive order that led to the formation of the Commerce Department’s U.S. AI Safety Institute, which is evaluating AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic.

Trump has committed to repealing the executive order.

A second Trump administration might also attempt to challenge a Securities and Exchange Commission rule that requires companies to disclose cybersecurity incidents. The White House said in January that more transparency “will incentivize corporate executives to invest in cybersecurity and cyber risk management.”

Trump’s running mate, Vance, co-sponsored a bill designed to end the rule. Andrew Garbarino, the House Republican who introduced an identical bill, has said the SEC rule increases cybersecurity risk and overlaps with existing law on incident reporting.

Also at stake in the election is the fate of dealmaking for tech investors and executives.

With Lina Khan helming the FTC, the top tech companies have been largely thwarted from making big acquisitions, though the Justice Department and European regulators have also created hurdles.

Tech transaction volume peaked at $1.5 trillion in 2021, then plummeted to $544 billion last year and $465 billion in 2024 as of September, according to Dealogic.

Many in the tech industry are critical of Khan and want her to be replaced should Harris win in November. Meanwhile, Vance, who worked in venture capital before entering politics, said as recently as February — before he was chosen as Trump’s running mate — that Khan was “doing a pretty good job.”

Khan, whom Biden nominated in 2021, has challenged Amazon and Meta on antitrust grounds and has said the FTC will investigate AI investments at Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft.

— Jordan Novet

]]> https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/13/trump-or-harris-here-are-the-2024-stakes-for-airlines-banks-evs-health-care-and-more/feed/ 0 https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/11/jeff-shell-is-about-to-lead-paramount-he-may-have-runway-to-make-bold-changes-he-couldnt-at-nbc/ https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/11/jeff-shell-is-about-to-lead-paramount-he-may-have-runway-to-make-bold-changes-he-couldnt-at-nbc/?noamp=mobile#respond Fri, 11 Oct 2024 13:00:42 +0000 https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/11/jeff-shell-is-about-to-lead-paramount-he-may-have-runway-to-make-bold-changes-he-couldnt-at-nbc/

Jeff Shell, CEO of NBCUniversal, speaks during a conference at the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity in Cannes, France, June 22, 2022. 

Eric Gaillard | Reuters

Less than two years after NBCUniversal fired Jeff Shell for alleged sexual harassment, the former CEO is close to finding himself back in the saddle leading a storied media company.

The longtime media executive is primed to help run the day-to-day media operations of Paramount Global as president of the company when its merger with Skydance Media closes in the first half of 2025, assuming regulatory approval. He’ll report to current Skydance CEO David Ellison, who will take the top job as the combined company’s CEO.

While neither Shell nor Ellison has publicly declared specific intentions for Paramount Global due to regulations banning “gun-jumping” in pending mergers, Shell’s recent tenure as the CEO of Comcast’s NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC, offers clues to what may be in store for Paramount.

CNBC spoke with a dozen people who worked closely with Shell during his tenure as CEO from 2019 to 2023. They described Shell as a person with big ideas and a willingness to make bold moves but with a style that depends on those around him to talk him out of decisions that may not make sense. Some of Shell’s boldest ideas — such as giving NBC’s 10 p.m. hour over to affiliates, merging with a rival, and turning CNBC primetime into a Fox News facsimile — never played out.

Comcast CEO Brian Roberts chose Shell to replace Steve Burke as NBCUniversal CEO in 2019. Shell had consistent success running a variety of different divisions within Comcast and NBCUniversal, including NBCU International and Universal Filmed Entertainment Group.

Colleagues told CNBC they found Shell to be a good listener and a collaborative decision-maker with a predilection for sometimes saying too much. His departure from NBCUniversal was sudden. In April 2023, a Comcast investigation corroborated allegations from a former CNBC reporter of sexual harassment. Shell joined private equity firm RedBird Capital Partners in February. RedBird backed the Skydance-Paramount merger and will assume a minority equity stake.

Soon, Shell, 59, will be at the helm of Paramount and paired with Ellison, who has already expressed his desire to transition Paramount into a more modern media company. That may set up a dynamic where Paramount’s CEO and president both want bold change.

Read more CNBC media news

RedBird executives praised Shell during a conference call in July announcing the merger, with RedBird Partner Andrew Brandon-Gordon saying Shell’s “long-term, results-oriented, proven track record at NBCUniversal” coupled with Ellison’s creativity and tech savvy make for the perfect leadership dynamic for the future of Paramount.

Still, it’s possible the pairing could lead to rash decision-making, warned one executive who worked closely with Shell at NBCUniversal. Even the consideration of dramatic ideas can destabilize an organization if discussed openly without follow through, and Shell developed a reputation at NBCUniversal for what one former coworker described as a “shoot first and aim later” mentality — a sentiment shared by at least six others who spoke with CNBC.

“What Paramount needs is blocking and tackling — mature leadership,” said the executive who worked closely with Shell. “Ellison is a blow-everything-up guy, and Shell needs someone who can minimize his mistakes.”

Shell and Ellison both declined to comment for this story.

welcome gaining the hour as a way to boost advertising revenue.

During a 2022 CNBC interview, Shell confirmed a Wall Street Journal report that he was considering ceding the hour to local affiliates to shift resources from linear broadcast TV toward streaming.

“If we’re being prudent operators, which we try to be, if you’re allocating a bunch of resources to one side of the business, you have to look at the allocation of resources to another,” Shell told CNBC’s David Faber at the time. “We make a lot of money at 10 o’clock. We still have a lot of viewers at 10 o’clock. There’s no question throughout the day as linear declines, you’re going to have to make some tradeoffs, and we’ll be looking at that as our investors would want us to look at.”

The 10 p.m. hour on broadcast networks still serves as a time slot for scripted dramas — a genre that’s largely gone to streaming and, in turn, has seen ratings struggle on traditional TV. CBS’ 10 p.m. programming includes “NCIS: Origins,” “FBI: Most Wanted,” “Elsbeth,” and “Blue Bloods,” which is in its 14th season.

Paramount Global co-CEO George Cheeks, who runs CBS, told Deadline in late 2022 that he was “committed to 10 p.m. and continuing our ratings success in that time period.”

Shell ultimately backed off giving up 10 p.m. for NBC after weighing the potential fallout with Hollywood creatives and agents, according to people familiar with the matter. Such a move at NBCUniversal would risk ruining relationships with TV titans such as “Law & Order” creator Dick Wolf, whose shows have occupied the 10 p.m. hour on NBC for years and have created a deep library for NBCUniversal’s flagship streaming service, Peacock. Irritating Hollywood would have run counter to Shell’s strategy to increase Peacock’s content catalog, as NBCUniversal needed strong relationships to fuel the service with new programming.

Wolf’s shows were also significant moneymakers for NBCUniversal, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Jeff Shell, CEO of NBCUniversal, speaks to the media at the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, July 7, 2021.

Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Ceding the 10 p.m. hour would also have negatively affected the ratings of NBC’s storied late night show, “The Tonight Show.” CBS’ late night show, “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert,” is consistently the top-rated late night show, which could naturally give Shell pause on moving away from 10 p.m. once he’s overseeing Paramount assets.

Still, all of the late night shows are losing audience, and a downsizing has already begun across the genre. Shell may feel it’s finally time to pull the rip cord.

He is clearly aware that the status quo of linear TV needs to change.

“Obviously a big chunk of the company is in the linear world, and we know that linear is challenged and declining,” Shell said during the July conference call. “I think a lot of us in the business know, we have got to run these businesses in a different way as they decline. And so, we’ve spent a lot of the last few months really building a bottom-up plan, and our goal is to manage the businesses, particularly the linear businesses, for cash flow generation.”

previously said.

That doesn’t appear to be in Ellison and Shell’s playbook for Paramount. The two have expressed their desire to partner Paramount+ with another streamer to add scale and content to the service, either through a merger or a bundle. Paramount Global has already held talks with a number of media companies about partnering on streaming, including NBCUniversal and Warner Bros. Discovery.

“To be a winner in [streaming] really means being in the ultimate bundle that’s coming,” Shell said during the July conference call. “We’ve had a bunch of inbound calls from a number of people about partnerships that could involve a partnership with another player or players.”

At NBCUniversal, according to people familiar with his thinking, Shell privately pushed the benefits of merging with another content company — again, something that never happened.

He spoke up in meetings about the benefits of merging with Viacom, WarnerMedia and even Netflix to ensure Peacock would have staying power against larger streaming services, according to people who heard him speak.

Ultimately, Comcast CEO Brian Roberts decided the moves weren’t in the best interest of shareholders or that it was too difficult to gain regulatory approval for them, though Roberts nearly approved a deal in 2022 for NBCUniversal to merge with video game developer Electronic Arts — a deal that, according to people familiar with the matter, would have seen Shell lose his job as NBCUniversal CEO. That role would have gone to EA CEO Andrew Wilson, the people said.

Jeff Shell, Chairman of Universal Filmed Entertainment Group, and Brian L. Roberts, Chairman and CEO of Comcast Corporation, seen at Universal Pictures “Sing” after party at the 2016 Toronto International Film Festival on Sunday, Sept. 11, 2016, in Toronto.

Eric Charbonneau | Invision for Universal Pictures | AP

hit Bravo franchises such as “The Real Housewives” and “Below Deck,” it has kept RSNs and news networks MSNBC and CNBC separate.

One of Shell’s big decisions at Paramount will be what to do with a handful of cable channels that have effectively turned into zombie networks, largely airing reruns of the same shows to avoid spending on new content. This includes MTV, VH1 and Comedy Central.

Shell wanted to combine some NBCUniversal cable networks to cut costs and push back on dwindling revenue, people familiar with the matter said, but ultimately decided not to.

Shell also had ideas that didn’t come to fruition about changing programming on some of NBC’s cable networks. He initially wanted CNBC to adopt what he described to others as a center-right primetime lineup, according to people familiar with the discussions at the time.

Then-CNBC chief Mark Hoffman argued the idea didn’t make sense for the network’s brand and likely wouldn’t have much of an audience, and Shell backed down, the people said. CNBC did hire former Fox News anchor Shepard Smith in 2020 to anchor a prime-time show that was canceled in 2022 just months after Hoffman retired. Hoffman declined to comment for this story.

One of Shell’s first accomplishments upon taking the NBCUniversal job was to renew the network’s “Sunday Night Football” deal with the NFL, and one of the last things he did was support NBC Sports moving forward with a bid for NBA rights if it got an opportunity, according to people familiar with the matter. NBC did get the chance to bid, and it’s bringing back NBA games beginning in 2025 after agreeing to pay about $2.45 billion per season to the league.

Both Shell and Ellison touted the importance of CBS Sports during their July conference call. When Paramount laid off hundreds of employees in September, none of them were part of CBS Sports, according to a person familiar with the matter.

CBS owns a Sunday afternoon package of NFL games, part of NCAA March Madness, Big Ten football, UEFA Champions League, and The Masters, among other sports. It wouldn’t be surprising if Shell migrates away from CBS entertainment programming toward sports, even in prime time, if those opportunities present themselves.

Disclosure: Comcast’s NBCUniversal is the parent company of CNBC.

WATCH: Skydance has to prove over time it can change the future trajectory of Paramount

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