Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane headed toward Florida with possible impacts to its western coast, the National Hurricane Center said on Saturday. 

Milton is forecast to undergo a period of rapid intensification and “bring the risk of life-threatening impacts to portions of the west coast of Florida next week,” the hurricane center said. It is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night and strengthen into a major hurricane over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane center forecast. 

A major hurricane is defined as a Category 3 storm or larger with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour. 

As of 5 p.m. Eastern Time Saturday, Milton was centered 245 miles north of Veracruz, Mexico, and 385 miles west-northwest of Veracruz, Mexico. It had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and was inching north-northeast at 3 mph. 

Milton is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night then across the south-central Gulf on Monday and Tuesday before reaching Florida’s west coast by the middle of the week, the hurricane center said.   

The forecast comes a little more than a week after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida and across the Southeast, killing at least 229 people in six states and causing immense destruction. President Biden on Thursday took an aerial tour of Florida’s Big Bend, where Helene struck as a Category 4 storm. Hundreds of people are still missing and Mr. Biden said the work to rebuild will cost “billions of dollars” as communities suffer still without power, running water and passable roads.

In a news release Saturday, the Federal Emergency Management Agency said Milton could bring “storm surge and heavy rainfall to areas recovering from hurricanes Helene and Debby and affect areas far from the coast.”

FEMA said it already had hundreds of staff in Florida assisting with Helene recovery who will also help prepare for Milton’s potential arrival. 

Heavy rain is possible in the region starting Sunday into Monday, CBS Miami reported, and more rain and heavy winds will most likely arrive on Wednesday. Hurricane and storm surge watches will most likely be required for portions of Florida starting Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said.

The hurricane center said rainfall totals of 5 to 12 inches are possible across the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys from Milton. Along with the heavy rainfall, the hurricane center said to expect risks of flooding.  

Residents in the area should ensure they have a hurricane plan in place, the hurricane center said, and follow the advice of local officials and check back for forecast updates.

Puerto Escondido, Mexico — Hurricane John struck Mexico’s southern Pacific coast with life-threatening flood potential after growing into a major hurricane in a matter of hours. It came ashore near the town of Punta Maldonado late Monday night as a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. John’s rapid intensification forced authorities to rush to keep pace and warn people of its potential destruction.

“Seek higher ground, protect yourselves and do not forget that life is the most important thing; material things can be replaced. We are here,” Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador wrote on the social media platform X.

By early Tuesday, John had weakened to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph maximum sustained winds, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. It was expected to batter Punta Maldonado and the nearby tourist hubs Acapulco and Puerto Escondido before being weakened over the high terrain inland.

The center said before landfall that “life-threatening” storm surges and flash floods were already ravaging the Pacific coast near Oaxaca.

Hurricane John shows growing threat of rapid intensification

The unexpected surge in strength caught scientists, authorities and residents of the area by surprise, something AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Benz and other experts have attributed to warmer oceans, which add fuel to the hurricanes.

As a result, surprise surges in hurricanes’ strength have become increasingly common, Benz said.

“These are storms that we haven’t really experienced before,” he said. “Rapid intensification has occurred more frequently in modern times as opposed to back in the historical record. So that’s telling us there’s something going on there.”

Rapid intensification is defined by meteorologists as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) over a 24 hour period, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  

Residents were tense in Oaxaca’s coastal cities as the forecast shifted and authorities responded.

Laura Velázquez, the federal coordinator of civil protection, told residents of Pacific coastal cities they should evacuate their homes and head to shelters in order to “protect theirs and their family’s lives.”

“It’s very important that all citizens in the coastal zone… take preventive measures,” Velázquez said.

Ana Aldai, a 33-year-old employee of a restaurant on the shores of the tourist hub Puerto Escondido, said businesses in the area began closing after authorities ordered the suspension of all work on the area’s main beaches.

The governments of Guerrero and Oaxaca states said classes would be suspended in a number of coastal zones on Tuesday.

Oaxaca’s governor said the state government had evacuated 3,000 people and set up 80 shelters. It also said it sent out 1,000 military and state personnel to address the emergency.

Videos on social media from Puerto Escondido showed flip-flop-clad tourists walking through heavy rain and fishermen pulling their boats out of the water. Strong rains in previous days have already left some roads in the region in a precarious position.

Aldai said she was “a little bit distressed” because notice from authorities came quickly. “There was no opportunity to make the necessary purchases. That also distresses us,” she said.

A lingering impact for a coast battered a year earlier by Otis

Benz, the meteorologist, expressed concern that the storm could slow once it hits land, leaving the storm hovering over the coastal zone, which could cause even greater damage.

The hurricane is bleak news for the region, which last year was walloped by Otis, a similar rapidly intensifying hurricane.

Otis devastated the resort city of Acapulco, where residents had little warning of the strength of what was about to hit them. One of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes ever seen, scientists at the time said it was a product of changing climate conditions.

Otis blew out power in the city for days, left bodies scattered on the coast and desperate family members searching for lost loved ones. Much of the city was left in a state of lawlessness and thousands scavenged in stores, scrambled for food and water.

The government of López Obrador received harsh criticism for its slow response to Otis, but authorities have since pledged to pick up their speed.

President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum said her government planned to work on improving an early alert system, similar to what the country has with earthquakes.

Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain across coastal areas of Chiapas state with more in isolated areas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated higher totals can be expected through Thursday.

“You’re going to feel the impacts of the storm probably for the next couple of weeks to a couple of months,” meteorologist Benz added.