In a stunning electoral verdict, Jharkhand has broken its 24-year jinx of never returning an incumbent government to power. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led INDIA bloc’s sweeping victory, securing a two-thirds majority despite the BJP’s highly polarising campaign, is inarguably an outcome of a strong social coalition powered by an array of welfare schemes.

The scale of victory is also impressive: while the INDIA partners the JMM, the Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation [CPI(M-L)] delivered strong performances across the board, only the BJP in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) camp managed to stay afloat, emerging as the second-largest party while its allies, the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) and the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)], failed to make an impact.

The INDIA bloc is set to win 56 of 81 seats in the State. The JMM looks set to win 34 seats, 9 more than the 25 it won in 2019; its ally the Congress 16 seats, equal to what it won in 2019; and the RJD won 4, close to the 6 seats it won in 2019. The CPI(M-L) has won 2 seats.

The JMM, riding on sympathy votes for Hemant Soren after his arrest and subsequent bail in a corruption case, has registered a rise, while other INDIA partners have by and large retained their seats. In the NDA bloc, while the BJP is set to win 21 seats, its allies AJSU, JD(U), and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP(RV)] have only one seat each.

The JMM’s strike rate is spectacular at nearly 75 per cent compared with the BJP. While the saffron party as the lead party in the NDA contested 68 of 81 seats, the JMM in the INDIA bloc contested only 43 seats. A reason for Sudesh Mahato-led AJSU’s poor show is the rise of the new entrant in Jharkhand politics, Jairam Mahato, who won the Dumri Assembly seat. Both Sudesh and Jairam come from the same Kudmi-Mahato community, which is the second-largest voting bloc after tribal people in the State.

Jairam’s Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha seems to have damaged the NDA’s prospects in several seats. The Kurmis, accounting for nearly 14 per cent of votes, are key to victory in over 30 of the 81 Assembly seats in Jharkhand, particularly in the districts of Ranchi, Dhanbad, Hazaribagh, Jamshedpur, and Giridih.

Also Read | BJP’s ‘poach and polarise’ strategy for Jharkhand

The BJP-AJSU alliance had bagged 47 seats (BJP-42 and AJSU-05) in the 2014 Assembly election. In 2019, when they fought separately, they won 25 and two seats, respectively. When they united again in 2024, hopes were high for recreating the 2014 scenario. However, they performed nowhere close, with the BJP winning only 21 seats and AJSU just one. The addition of JD(U) and LJP(RV) also did not help the BJP significantly.

Despite an extremely divisive pitch of “Jamai Jehad” and “Zameen Jehad” centred on allegations of infiltration by Bangladeshi Muslims and their acquisition of tribal lands and marriages with tribal women, the BJP could achieve a strike rate of below 30 per cent.

The Congress, which had proved a weak link in the INDIA bloc in the Bihar and Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, performed well in Jharkhand, winning 16 of the 30 seats it contested.

JMM’s steady ascent

This election marks the JMM’s consistent rise in Jharkhand. It won 18 seats in 2009, 19 in 2014, 30 in the 2019 State election, and now 33 Assembly seats. The BJP, though down to 21 from the 25 seats it won in 2019, remains a significant force in the tribal-dominated State. But its performance will dampen spirits, as it has deployed a battery of tribal leaders this time, including many imports from parties like the JMM and the Congress.

Prem Singh, a former teacher at Delhi University and former fellow of the Indian Institute of Advanced Study, Shimla, told Frontline: “The communal issue of infiltration of Bangladeshi Muslims in the State backfired on the BJP. This election result has made it clear that the BJP’s communal campaign has not yet spread to rural Jharkhand. It remains a city-centric party in the State.”

Singh noted that the BJP could not counter several ground factors: sympathy among tribal communities following Hemant Soren’s arrest, support from non-tribal women due to Maiya Samman Yojana, and the polarisation of Muslim minority votes in favour of the INDIA bloc.

“It was said that the BJP tried to harm the JMM and the INDIA bloc by providing resources to Jairam Mahto of Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha. But this strategy failed. The BJP also angered some of its old leaders and voters by fielding new faces picked from political families,” Singh observed.

A look at Jharkhand’s electoral map shows that the BJP’s attempt to woo tribal votes by raising concerns about Bangladeshi infiltration has flopped, as it failed to win many seats in the Santhal Pargana region. Most of its victories came from its traditional strongholds in Palamu and North Chotanagpur.

In Kolhan, where the BJP had high hopes riding on Champai Soren, the results fell below expectations. Although Champai won his Saraikela seat, his son Babulal Soren lost from Ghatshila. In the last Assembly election, the BJP failed to win any of the 14 Assembly seats in Kolhan.

Overall, the BJP had won just two of the 28 tribal reserved seats in 2019, and this time too, its performance in these constituencies appears limited.

Even former Union Tribal Affairs Minister Arjun Munda’s wife, Meera Munda, lost from the Potka seat. Shibu Soren’s eldest daughter-in-law, Sita Soren, who had earlier lost the Dumka Lok Sabha seat as a BJP candidate, lost by a huge margin of over 43,000 votes in the Jamtara seat.

Former Chief Minister Madhu Koda’s wife, Geeta Koda, lost in Jagannathpur. A former Lok Sabha MP from the Congress, she had joined the BJP before the 2024 general election and lost from the Singhbhum Lok Sabha seat months ago before being fielded as an MLA candidate this time.

Polarisation politics finds few takers

Releasing the BJP’s Sankalp Patra (manifesto) on November 3 in Ranchi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had promised to “identify and deport” every infiltrator and reclaim “land they usurped” from tribal people. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, at an election rally in Chaibasa in Kolhan division on November 4, warned tribal people that “they” (referring to Muslims) were snatching their bread, taking away their daughters, and usurping their land. This escalated the BJP’s ongoing campaign in the Santhal Pargana region, which claimed Muslims from Bangladesh were marrying tribal women and changing demographics.

Clearly, this strategy has not worked.

Siraj Dutta, a social activist and researcher associated with the People’s Union for Civil Liberties in Jharkhand, told Frontline: “The result is a clear rejection of the BJP’s deeply communal and divisive politics. The BJP ran an extremely hateful campaign against Muslims using the bogey of Bangladeshi infiltration. Several mainstream media outlets and digital news portals blindly pushed the BJP’s agenda. It did not resonate with Adivasis and other Jharkhandi communities, even in Santhal Pargana, as it simply doesn’t exist on the ground.”

Dutta noted that contrary to the BJP’s communal agenda based on unfounded claims, INDIA bloc parties, led by the JMM, focussed on people’s issues and questions of Jharkhandi identity in their campaign.

“Along with Adivasis, a large proportion of backward and Dalit Jharkhandi communities have also rejected the BJP’s communal politics in favour of Hemant Soren’s welfare work. The consolidation of Adivasis against the BJP visible in this year’s Lok Sabha election intensified further. In the last five years, the BJP’s agenda of assimilating Adivasis into the Hindutva fold has faced stiff political resistance. The pro-corporate policies of the Modi government at the cost of Adivasi resources are also exposed,” he explained.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won nine of 14 Lok Sabha seats, and the NDA had led in more than 50 Assembly seats. They were hopeful of a better show this time, believing that with Hemant Soren out on bail, the sympathy factor would no longer work for the JMM.

Also Read | In Jharkhand, a contest between BJP’s anti-infiltration stance and JMM’s tribal identity politics

The BJP, which lost the 2019 Assembly election after appointing non-tribal Chief Minister Raghubar Das following its 2014 victory, attempted course correction by bringing back Jharkhand’s first tribal Chief Minister, Babulal Marandi. While Marandi won his Rajdhanwar seat in Giridih, he clearly has not proved to be the BJP’s trump card in the State.

The BJP pitched the Gogo Didi Yojana to counter the JMM-led alliance government’s Maiya Samman Yojana to attract female voters. However, voters seemingly preferred a delivered scheme over a promised one.

The BJP’s manifesto promised to transfer Rs.2,100 monthly to women’s bank accounts under their scheme after forming the government. Under the existing Maiyya Samman Yojana, Rs. 1,000 per month is credited to over 50 lakh women’s accounts in the State. Chief Minister Hemant Soren promised to increase this amount to Rs.2,500 monthly from December if his party returned to power.

Women voters outnumbered men in 32 Assembly constituencies, with female turnout exceeding male turnout in more than 80 per cent of seats this time. One wonders if the caste-neutral women voters were the decisive factor in this outcome.