Despite appointing prominent tribal leader Babulal Marandi as its State chief and vesting another key Jharkhand leader, Arjun Munda, with the key portfolios of tribal affairs and agriculture at the Centre, the BJP lost all five tribal parliamentary seats in Jharkhand in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Now, the party is leaving no stone unturned as it attempts to erode the support base of the Hemant Soren-led Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) ahead of this year’s Assembly election.

The BJP’s strategy is two-pronged: the first involves a version of “Operation Lotus” by which it tries to poach leaders of various tribal communities to slice away the solid support base of the JMM-led alliance. The second prong focusses on launching a high-pitched campaign around “love jehad” and “land jehad”, claiming that Muslims from Bangladesh are entering Jharkhand through West Bengal, marrying tribal girls, and taking away their lands. Experts are doubtful that either of these strategies will work, but what is clear is that the BJP has gone into overdrive to bring tribal people back into its fold. Jharkhand was carved out of Bihar by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led National Democratic Alliance government in 2000, after which the BJP formed the first government in the State led by the tribal Chief Minister Babulal Marandi.

In a State marred by significant political instability, with 13 Chief Ministers in just 24 years, the BJP is the only party that has provided a full-term Chief Minister, Raghubar Das (2014-19). But Das is a non-tribal leader, and that seems to have upset the tribal communities. After Chief Minister Hemant Soren, a Santhal, was sent to jail in an Enforcement Directorate case in February 2024, the tribal vote appears to have further consolidated behind the JMM.

In the 2019 Assembly election, the JMM-Congress alliance won 25 of the 28 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes in the State. But just ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP poached two prominent leaders from the opposition camp—Hemant’s sister-in-law Sita Soren (his late brother Durga Soren’s wife), who was a JMM MLA in the Santhal Pargana region, and the Congress MP Geeta Koda (wife of former Chief Minister Madhu Koda) in the Kolhan region. Both candidates lost.

This time around, as Jharkhand gears up for the Assembly election due in November-December, the BJP has hit the JMM hard by poaching former Chief Minister Champai Soren, who walked out of the JMM claiming to have been humiliated when he was asked to make way for Hemant Soren after the latter’s release from jail.

Tribals as vote bank in Assembly election

The total number of Assembly seats in Jharkhand is 81. The key tribal communities in the State are Santhal, Oraon, Munda, and Ho. While the JMM is very strong in the Santhal belt and did very well in alliance with the Congress in South Pargana and Kolhan—constituencies reserved for the Scheduled Tribes—the BJP thinks that the combined might of Geeta Koda (from the Ho tribe) and Champai Soren (a Santhal known as “Kolhan Tiger”) will ensure it a smooth sail in the Kolhan region.

There are 14 Assembly seats in the Kolhan region, spread across three districts: Jamshedpur, Chaibasa, and Seraikela Kharsawan. Champai is a six-term MLA from Seraikela while Koda was an MP from West Singhbhum. The JMM, the Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Nationalist Congress Party, and the CPI(Marxist-Leninist) Liberation together won 13 of the seats in the 2019 Assembly election while 1 seat was won by the so-called Chanakya of Jharkhand politics, Saryu Rai, who as an independent candidate had defeated the then Chief Minister, Das. If Champai manages to divide the tribal votes, the BJP could avoid drawing a blank again in Kolhan. Champai’s son has also defected.

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Sources said that the BJP was hoping that Champai could bring some MLAs along with him, but it seems that the legislators close to him have chosen the safe option of staying with Hemant Soren. Both sides are playing safe. The BJP is hopeful of winning the Assembly election with Champai’s support; if not, he might be considered for a ministerial position at the Centre, similar to how Jitan Ram Manjhi, the former Chief Minister of Bihar, was rewarded for his services. Alternatively, he could be offered a gubernatorial role. The buzz on the ground suggests that the controversy centres on the JMM leadership’s refusal to grant Champai’s son a ticket in the upcoming Assembly election.

The BJP is also hopeful that Sita Soren will effectively cut into Santhal votes in the JMM bastion of Santhal Pargana since it believes that the sympathy wave in favour of Hemant Soren has evaporated after he was let out on bail in June. The BJP is also likely to field Arjun Munda in the Assembly election after he lost the Khunti Lok Sabha seat. There are 18 Assembly seats in the Santhal Pargana region.

Jharkhand’s tribal population is 26 per cent while Kurmis constitute 16 per cent. Out of 28 reserved Assembly seats for tribal candidates, the BJP could win only 2 in the 2019 Assembly election. Kurmis constitute a substantial bloc in 30 Assembly segments. The BJP has traditionally relied on its ally the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) for the Kurmi vote. However, the rise of Jairam Mahato has cast doubt on the AJSU’s ability to retain this support, as his party, the Jharkhandi Bhasha Khatiyan Sangharsh Samiti, secured a significant number of votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

The BJP is comfortable in the North Chotanagpur division, which has 26 Assembly seats, and in the Palamu division, which has 9 seats. Of the 35 seats in the two divisions, the BJP won 16 in the 2019 Assembly election and 17 in the 2014 Assembly election. South Chotanagpur has 14 Assembly seats. The BJP has lost its edge in this region and won only five seats in 2019. This region is dominated by the Oraon and Munda tribes and not by the Santhal tribe to which the JMM’s Soren family belongs.

Clearly, the BJP has to do much more to win the tribal vote and that explains its second gambit. After playing up the OBC versus Muslim narrative in the 2024 Lok Sabha election by alleging that the opposition was attempting to allocate a portion of the backward class reservation to the Muslim community, it is now trying to create a similar divide between tribal people and Muslims.

On August 2, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma claimed in Jamshedpur that the demography of Jharkhand was “changing fast” and accused the JMM government of engaging in Muslim appeasement. The number of Bangladeshi infiltrators has risen “from 20 per cent to 48 per cent in 20 Assembly segments of the State”, he asserted, and added: “If this trend continues, the day is not far when infiltrators will sit in Assemblies.”

On July 20, during the saffron party’s extended executive committee meeting in Ranchi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah also claimed that rampant infiltration had led to the shrinking of the tribal population in Jharkhand and said that if the BJP came to power in the State it would publish a White Paper on the subject.

Land jehad: A BJP strategy

A PIL petition alleging large-scale infiltration from Bangladesh into six districts of Jharkhand—Dumka, Pakur, Deoghar, Jamtara, Godda, and Sahibganj—is currently being heard by the Jharkhand High Court. While the district administrations of all six districts have submitted affidavits denying any infiltration from Bangladesh, the court noted that the submissions failed to address the reasons for the decline in the tribal population in these areas. The court also requested a response from the Centre by August 8.

However, there is no let-up in the political sparring over the matter. On July 30, the Jharkhand Assembly had to be adjourned after BJP members created a ruckus over the issue.

In the Lok Sabha too, raising the issue during a zero hour in the monsoon session, Nishikant Dubey, the BJP MP from Godda, went so far as to demand that parts of Jharkhand along with Murshidabad and Malda districts in West Bengal and Kishanganj and Katihar in Bihar be merged to create a Union Territory to counter the challenge of illegal immigration from Bangladesh. Dubey blamed the growing influx of Bangladeshi infiltrators for the decline of the tribal population in Santhal Pargana from 36 per cent in 2000 to 26 per cent now.

As the BJP’s “missing tribals” campaign gained momentum, many public organisations and social activists under the banner of the Loktantra Bachao Abhiyan (LBA) sought to call the party’s bluff by releasing the population figures of all 24 districts of Jharkhand. They said that the claims of the BJP leaders were not based on facts.

Citing the Census figures of 1951, 1991, and 2011, the LBA said that the tribal population was 36 per cent in 1951, 27.67 per cent in 1991, and 26.21 per cent in 2011. In Santhal Pargana, the tribal population came down to 28.11 per cent in 2011 from 29.91 per cent in 2001. The Muslim population grew from 12.18 per cent in 1991 to 14.53 per cent in 2011 in the State.

The LBA said the main reasons for the decline in the tribal population were the arrival of non-tribal people from neighbouring States (mainly Bihar) and the continued migration of tribal people to other States in search of jobs. Even in Santhal Pargana, the LBA said the growth of the Muslim population was just 2.15 per cent between 2001 and 2011, which does not justify the claims of the BJP leaders about large-scale Bangladeshi Muslim infiltration into the area.

“Instead of talking about the main reasons for the decline in the tribal population, the BJP wants to fan religious fanaticism and carry out polarisation by presenting wrong facts,” the LBA said. A look at the district-wise population figures reveals that while there has been some decline in the tribal population and some rise in the Muslim population in the six districts of Santhal Pargana, there is no uniform pattern to suggest any massive demographic changes.

Also Read | With Champai Soren installed as Chief Minister, JMM hopes to shore up support before election

According to Siraj Dutta, a social activist and researcher based in Jharkhand, the BJP’s allegation of Bangladeshi infiltration is a blatant attempt at religious polarisation before the Assembly election. “Contrary to the BJP’s claims, neither is there any ground-level evidence nor any government reports on Bangladeshi infiltration in Jharkhand. Ironically, the BJP-led Central government itself has told Parliament that it does not have any data regarding the number of Bangladeshi infiltrators. The fact is that Bengali-speaking Indian Muslims have been living in Santhal Pargana for several decades, and it is these people that the BJP is branding as infiltrators,” Dutta told Frontline.

While conceding that the change in Jharkhand’s demography, especially in Adivasi areas, is a serious issue, Dutta said that contrary to the BJP’s claim of a reduction in the Adivasi population by 10-16 per cent since the State’s creation, the major reduction happened between 1951 and 1991 when it fell from 36 per cent to 27.67 per cent (as per the Census).

“The fall between 1991 and 2011 (the last Census) was only about 1.5 per cent. In the decades following Independence, a large number of non-Adivasis migrated from bordering States and settled in the Adivasi areas of present-day Jharkhand, especially in the mining and industrial belts. Violations of pro-Adivasi local land laws and Fifth Schedule (constitutional) provisions resulted in massive encroachment, illegal transfer of Adivasi land to non-Adivasis, and forced acquisition of land for mining and industries. It continues to be a serious issue. Large-scale migration of Adivasis to other States and high levels of mortality because of poor health also contribute to lower population growth rates of Adivasis. But the BJP remains silent on these concerns. It is also silent on the demands related to Adivasi identity such as the implementation of the Sarna code and the pro-Adivasi domicile policy,” said Dutta.

Facts, however, take a back seat when communalism raises its head. Even as the matter is pending in court and is being raised in the Assembly and Parliament, the bogey of Bangladeshi infiltration is likely to kick up more of a storm as the election draws near.