Shake Shack Inc – TheNewsHub https://thenewshub.in Sun, 17 Nov 2024 13:00:01 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1 Restaurant executives can't wait for 2025 after slow traffic and wave of bankruptcies https://thenewshub.in/2024/11/17/restaurant-executives-cant-wait-for-2025-after-slow-traffic-and-wave-of-bankruptcies/ https://thenewshub.in/2024/11/17/restaurant-executives-cant-wait-for-2025-after-slow-traffic-and-wave-of-bankruptcies/?noamp=mobile#respond Sun, 17 Nov 2024 13:00:01 +0000 https://thenewshub.in/2024/11/17/restaurant-executives-cant-wait-for-2025-after-slow-traffic-and-wave-of-bankruptcies/

A McDonald’s restaurant in El Sobrante, California, on Oct. 23, 2024.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

After a tough year for the restaurant industry, executives can’t wait for 2025 to start.

“I don’t know about you guys, but I’m ready for ’24 to be behind us, and I think ’25 is going to be a great year,” Kate Jaspon, CFO of Dunkin’ parent Inspire Brands, said at the Restaurant Finance and Development Conference in Las Vegas this week.

Restaurant bankruptcy filings have soared more than 50% so far in 2024, compared with the year-ago period. Traffic to restaurants open at least a year declined year over year in every month of 2024 through September, according to data from industry tracker Black Box Intelligence. And many of the nation’s largest restaurant chains, from McDonald’s to Starbucks, have disappointed investors with same-store sales declines for at least one quarter.

But green shoots have appeared, fueling tepid optimism for the future of the restaurant industry.

Sales are improving from this summer’s lows. Traffic to fast-food restaurants rose 2.8% in October compared with a year ago, according to data from Revenue Management Solutions. The firm’s data confirms anecdotal evidence from companies like Burger King owner Restaurant Brands International, which said earlier this month that its same-store sales grew in October.

Plus, interest rates are finally falling. Earlier in November, the Federal Reserve approved its second consecutive rate cut. For restaurants, lower interest rates mean that it’s cheaper to finance new locations, fueling growth. Previously, higher interest rates didn’t hurt development much because restaurants were still catching up from pandemic delays and riding the high of the post-Covid sales boom.

Shake Shack storefront with illuminated sign on a bustling street, New York City, New York, October 22, 2024.

Smith Collection | Gado | Archive Photos | Getty Images

At burger chain Shake Shack, higher interest rates in the last few years did not slow down development, according to CFO Katie Fogertey. But she’s expecting a “big boost” in consumer confidence as rates fall.

“If credit becomes cheaper, people feel like they can borrow more, even though it doesn’t make sense that it would necessarily drive a $5 burger spend. It’s just the psychology behind it,” Fogertey told CNBC.

Shake Shack has reported increasing same-store sales every quarter so far this year, even as consumers have been more cautious.

Restaurant valuations are also improving, prompting hope that the market for initial public offerings will finally defrost.

“We’re working with a number of different folks right now on getting ready,” said Piper Sandler managing director Damon Chandik at RFDC. “The window currently is not wide open … I think that just with the traffic pressure that we’ve been seeing across the industry, the bar is particularly high.”

He added that he expects to see some restaurant IPOs next year, hopefully in the first half.

A sign marks the location of a Cava restaurant in Chicago, Illinois, on May 28, 2024.

Scott Olson | Getty Images

No major restaurant company has gone public since Mediterranean restaurant chain Cava’s IPO in June of last year. While Cava’s stock has climbed more than 500% since its debut, its success hasn’t encouraged any other large private restaurant companies to take the plunge. Instead, the broader market conditions have scared off other contenders.

Nearly a year ago, Panera Bread confidentially filed to go public again, but an IPO hasn’t yet come to fruition. Inspire Brands, which is owned by private equity firm Roark Capital, is another likely candidate for a blockbuster IPO in the future. Inspire’s portfolio includes Dunkin’, Buffalo Wild Wings, Jimmy John’s, Sonic, Arby’s and Baskin-Robbins.

Still, it’s not all optimism within the industry.

“I think we’ll still see headwinds next year within the macro and within the industry,” Portillo’s CFO Michelle Hook told CNBC.

The fast-casual chain, best known for its Italian beef sandwiches, has reported falling same-store sales for three straight quarters. Portillo’s has stayed away from some of the discounts offered by others in the restaurant industry, like McDonald’s and Chili’s.

The value wars will likely continue into 2025, pressuring restaurants’ profits and intensifying the competition between chains. For example, McDonald’s plans to unveil a broader value menu in the first quarter, after extending its $5 value meal through the summer and into the winter. For some restaurants, the looming threat of bankruptcy hasn’t disappeared, particularly for the chains that are leaning on discounts to win back customers.

And while a recession looks unlikely next year, the consumer might take longer to bounce back from years of high costs than anticipated.

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'Swicy' items take over restaurant menus as Gen Z seeks heat https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/22/swicy-items-take-over-restaurant-menus-as-gen-z-seeks-heat/ https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/22/swicy-items-take-over-restaurant-menus-as-gen-z-seeks-heat/?noamp=mobile#respond Tue, 22 Oct 2024 18:46:25 +0000 https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/22/swicy-items-take-over-restaurant-menus-as-gen-z-seeks-heat/

A general view of atmosphere during ‘Sonic Desert’ presented by Coca-Cola Spiced and Topo Chico in partnership with BPM Music on April 13, 2024 in Thermal, California. 

Randy Shropshire | Getty Images

The hottest food and drink trend this year isn’t just spicy — it’s also sweet.

“Swicy,” a portmanteau of sweet and spicy, has taken over restaurant marketing. While the term hasn’t actually appeared on menus, the shorthand has become a popular way to describe the resurgence of foods and drinks marrying sweet and spicy flavors. The Food Institute even dubbed it the “Summer of Swicy” this year.

Nearly 10% of restaurant menus have “sweet and spicy” items, up 1.8% over the last 12 months, according to market research firm Datassential. Over the next four years, its menu penetration is expected to rise 9.6%.

A slew of restaurant chains have embraced the trend, from Shake Shack’s swicy menu to Burger King’s Fiery Strawberry & Sprite to Starbucks’ Spicy Lemonade Refreshers. Common menu items have paired fruity flavors and chili powder, or used sauces like hot honey and gochujang, a red chili paste that’s a popular Korean condiment.

Starbucks Spicy Lemonade Refreshers.

Courtesy: Starbucks

Although the menu items were largely only available for a limited time, culinary experts think that the swicy trend has staying power.

Buzzy, trendy menu items are more important now to restaurants, which are leaning on both discounts and innovation to attract diners and reverse declining sales. In August, traffic to U.S. restaurants fell 3.6%, the industry’s second-worst monthly performance this year since January, according to Black Box Intelligence. Limited-time menu items are particularly attractive to Gen Z customers, a key demographic because they account for roughly a fifth of Americans.

McCormick first called out the reemerging trend in its 2022 flavor forecast report, according to Hadar Cohen Aviram, executive chef for the spice and flavoring company’s U.S. consumer division.

McCormick highlighted “plus sweet,” when sweetness acts as a flavor enhancer rather than being the star of the show. The forecasters were even considering naming the trend “swicy” in their report but went with “plus sweet” because it was broader, she said.

The following year, McCormick, which owns Frank’s RedHot and Cholula, called out “beyond heat,” or using other flavors to bring out more flavor in addition to the spiciness.

“We see lots of different people wanting to add some heat to their plates, but they do want to make sure that there’s something for everyone,” Cohen Aviram said.

Shake Shack’s culinary team was inspired to make Korean-inspired items for a limited-time menu, according to John Karangis, the company’s executive chef and vice president of culinary innovation.

One of the menu items was a Korean fried chicken sandwich, coated in a sweet and spicy gochujang glaze. After it created the limited-time menu, Shake Shack’s marketing team pitted the chicken sandwich against the Korean BBQ burger, with savory and salty flavors. It told customers to pick a side: team swicy or team umami.

The swicy trend also appeals to Gen Z, the cohort born between 1997 and 2012.

“We have a new generation, Generation Z, that’s really excited about complex flavor profiles — but there’s only so many you can taste: sweet, salty, bitter, umami,” Nielsen said.

Here’s one example of the generation’s heat-seeking behavior: over half of Gen Z consumers identify as “hot sauce connoisseurs,” according to a survey conducted by NCSolutions.

And with swicy, achieving the perfect ratio can be tough because it’s so personal, McCormick’s Cohen Aviram said.

Feedback from Shake Shack’s customers reflects that, too.

“Of course, we hear a lot of great feedback from guests, and we also heard other feedback like ‘Hey, you could have punched it up a little bit,'” Karangis said.

Cohen Aviram prefers about 40% sweet, 60% spicy when she’s creating swicy concoctions, like a Frank’s RedHot ice cream bar.

“The thing with sweetness if that it kind of hijacks your palate, so if you use too much of it, you’re just not going to sense the nuance,” she said.

When Burger King released its Fiery menu this summer, it ranked the items on a scale of spiciness. At one – meaning the least spicy – was its Fiery Strawberry & Sprite drink. The swicy menu item was inspired by another trend: “dirty sodas,” the combination of soda, creamers and syrups started in Utah, according to Pat O’Toole, Burger King North America’s chief marketing officer.

The drink marked the first time that Burger King tweaked a classic fountain beverage, but it previously introduced a Frozen Fanta Kickin’ Mango, with a similar swicy flavor profile.

“Guests can easily and accessibly try a ‘swicy’ beverage offering and work their way up the spice scale with other food items, if they so choose,” O’Toole said, adding that the chain saw strong interest across its focus groups for a spicy take on Sprite.

Of course, not all swicy profiles resonate with customers. For example, Coca-Cola in September discontinued its spiced Coke just six months after it hit shelves, after it initially intended it as a permanent offering.

But despite some missteps, the swicy pairing is likely here to stay – at least for a while.

“The flavors will stick around, for sure. I think the name will get tiresome. … It probably still has a couple of years to go,” Nielsen said.

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