Rivian Automotive Inc – TheNewsHub

Rivian lowers earnings guidance after missing Wall Street's third-quarter expectations

suimt — Thu, 07 Nov 2024 22:40:01 +0000

Rivian Automotive lowered its earnings forecast for the year after missing Wall Street’s third-quarter expectations, including a significant miss in revenue.

Here is how the company performed in the quarter, compared with average estimates compiled by LSEG:

Loss per share: 99 cents adjusted vs. a loss of 92 cents expected
Revenue: $874 million vs. $990 million expected

Rivian said it now expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of between a loss of $2.83 billion and a loss of $2.88 billion. That compares to a previous guidance of a roughly $2.7 billion loss.

But Rivian reconfirmed plans Thursday to achieve a “modest positive gross profit” during the fourth quarter of this year, which is being closely monitored by Wall Street.

“Our core focus is on driving toward profitability,” Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe told CNBC’s Phil LeBeau on Thursday. “Looking at Q4, we continue to guide toward gross margin.”

The company reported a negative gross profit of $392 million for the third quarter compared with a loss of $477 million a year earlier.

Shares of electric vehicle companies Rivian, Lucid and Tesla in 2024.

Shares of Rivian during after-hours trading Thursday were up roughly 2% after initially declining. The stock closed Thursday at $10.05, up 3.5%

RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said the company maintaining the gross profit target should benefit the stock: “Many analysts we spoke to into the print thought the company might withdraw this target. On that basis, we could see shares trade higher,” he said in an investor note Thursday.

The automaker’s net loss narrowed year over year to $1.1 billion compared to $1.37 billion during the third quarter of 2023. Its revenue, including $8 million in sales of regulatory credits, dropped 34.6% compared to a year ago amid supplier disruptions that affected the company’s production.

“This has been a tough quarter for us,” Scaringe told investors Thursday about the supplier issues. “We’re seeing this as a short-term issue.”

Rivian last month lowered its annual production forecast from 57,000 units to between 47,000 and 49,000 units due to the disruption. It reconfirmed that range Thursday.

The supplier disruptions have occurred as the automaker attempts to launch its second-generation “R1” vehicles. The 2025 model-year redesigns included significant changes to the vehicle’s internal parts.

Separate from third-quarter results, Rivian on Thursday announced an “important strategic partnership” with LG Energy Solution to supply U.S. manufactured battery cells for the company’s upcoming R2 vehicles in 2026.

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What Trump's election to the White House could mean for EVs

suimt — Wed, 06 Nov 2024 21:19:02 +0000

Production is now set to begin at the former Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant, less than two years after GM announced the massive $2.2 billion investment to fully renovate the facility to build a variety of all-electric trucks and SUVs.

Photo by Jeffrey Sauger for General Motors

DETROIT – President-elect Donald Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to send the U.S. electric vehicle industry into a period of uncertainty.

Republicans, led by the former president, have largely condemned EVs, claiming they are being forced upon consumers. Trump has vowed to roll back or eliminate many vehicle emissions standards under the Environmental Protection Agency as well as incentives to promote production and adoption of the vehicles such as the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

Auto industry insiders and other officials have said it would be difficult for Trump to completely gut the IRA, but he could defund or limit EV subsidies through executive orders or other policy actions.

Several people said they would expect Trump to target federal consumer credits that currently offer up to $7,500 for the purchase of an EV rather than target industrial production credits for companies.

“The IRA will probably have some adjustments … I don’t think the IRA will go away,” David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group investment firm, told CNBC on Wednesday. “It has some really good things in it that I think Republicans and Democrats will like.”

Many of the investments into EV production under the IRA having been taking place in Republican states such as Ohio, South Carolina and Georgia.

Automotive executives are also quick to say they don’t base investment decisions on who holds the White House, but there are natural adjustments with new administrations.

“Anytime there’s an administration change, it’s an interesting time for the industry because we have to go through new policies and regulations and have to bring new people up to speed on who we are and what we do,” David Christ, group vice president and general manager of the Toyota Division in North America, said Wednesday during an Automotive Press Association event near Detroit. “Administrations sometimes change every four years, so we don’t really do a lot of modifying the strategy.”

General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis — would be the biggest winners of a second Trump term and Republican control of Congress.

“We see F and GM as the main beneficiaries from the Trump administration,” BofA Securities analyst John Murphy said in a Wednesday investor note. “The current environmental regime would pressure the core business of legacy [automakers, trucks,] to decarbonize by the end of the decade while shifting quickly to an EV portfolio.”

GM’s aspirations for an “all-electric future” and profitable EV business in the near term are highly reliant on federal tax credits.

Analysts had indicated EV startups such as Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group would benefit more with a Democratic win.

Toyota could also be a winner if EV regulations are reduced or eliminated, as the Japanese automaker has been slow to invest in all-electric models compared to hybrid vehicles.

Shares of GM and Ford closed Wednesday up 2.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Stock prices for Toyota and Stellantis, which is experiencing significant problems in the U.S., were essentially level. Lucid and Rivian were each down, 5.3% and 8.3%, respectively.

Shares of automakers after President-elect Donald Trump’s victory.

An outlier is U.S. electric vehicle leader Tesla. CEO Elon Musk heavily campaigned in swing states for Trump, who has discussed making the billionaire a government efficiency czar.

Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday by 15% and earlier notched a new 52-week high.

“We see RIVN and LCID challenged, which is largely reflected in the stocks,” Murphy said. “We don’t expect meaningful issues for TSLA since it has already reached profitability and will introduce more entry level products that could be attractive for the larger public.”

Several automakers did not immediately return request for comment after NBC News and several other media outlets called the election for Trump.

Others such as the Detroit automakers and Hyundai Motor congratulated Trump and the newly elected officials across all levels of government.

“We look forward to working with the new Administration and Congress on policies that strengthen the U.S. automotive industry, which supports 9.7 million American jobs and drives more than $1 trillion into the economy each year,” Ford said.

“We congratulate and look forward to working with the President-elect, Congress, and all elected officials to ensure that the U.S. continues to lead the world in technology and innovation, to the benefit of American workers and consumers alike,” GM said.

“Advanced Clean Cars II” regulations of 2022 call for 35% of 2026 model year vehicles, which will begin to be introduced next year, to be zero-emission vehicles. Battery-electric, fuel cell and, to an extent, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles qualify as zero emission.

Before the election, automotive officials said regardless of who won the White House, many automakers will push for the mandates to be postponed.

The California Air Resources Board reports 12 states and Washington, D.C., have adopted the rules; however, roughly half of them did so starting with the 2027 model year. They are part of CARB’s Advanced Clean Cars regulations that require 100% of new vehicle sales in the state of California to be zero-emission models by 2035.

EVs made up 10% or more of local market shares in just 11 states and the District of Columbia to begin this year, according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade association and lobby group that represents most major automakers operating in the U.S.

Auto executives and industry experts also expect Trump could roll back or freeze the Corporate Average Fuel Economy, or CAFE, standards for model years 2027-2031.

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Harris vs. Trump: Auto insiders weigh in on both candidates, top issues

suimt — Tue, 29 Oct 2024 17:00:01 +0000

New Ford F-150 trucks go through the assembly line at the Ford Dearborn Plant on April 11, 2024 in Dearborn, Michigan.

Bill Pugliano | Getty Images

DETROIT — The automotive industry has become a crucial topic during the 2024 presidential election as Michigan — home of the Motor City and 1.1 million automotive jobs — remains a critical swing state.

Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump, and their running mates and supporters have made Michigan a second home in recent weeks as the campaigns attempt to win over undecided voters in the Great Lakes State.

Since 2008, whichever candidate has won the state has moved into the White House, including Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020.

“Michigan’s 16 electoral votes have helped thrust Autos into the debate. Between Trump’s hyperactive and contradictory statements and Harris’ quieter views lay deep differences but also convergence,” Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois wrote in an investor note Monday.

While major automakers and suppliers have shied away from publicly endorsing either presidential candidate, executives and lobbyists from several companies spoke to CNBC on the condition of anonymity to discuss how they’re preparing for each candidate, as well as a likely divided Congress.

Electric vehicles, trade, tariffs, China, emissions regulations and labor are among the top issues automakers are monitoring, according to industry executives and policy experts.

union President Shawn Fain who has been a combative foe to automakers, is concerning to some.

US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris greets union workers as she tours an International Union of Painters and Allied Trades training facility in Macomb, Michigan, on October 28, 2024.

Drew Angerer | AFP | Getty Images

If Trump wins reelection, automotive industry officials largely expect that he’ll return to policies and actions from his first presidential term, but those stances could be potentially more aggressive than they were before.

If he’s in office, insiders expect he would roll back or eliminate tightening federal emissions and fuel economy like he did during his first term; renew a battle between California and other states that set their own standards; and potentially enact funding changes to the Biden administration’s key Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 legislation.

Officials said it would be difficult for Trump to completely gut the IRA, but he could defund or limit EV subsidies through executive orders or other policy actions.

Automakers, suppliers and other auto-related companies are preparing for both outcomes as well as a split in Congress, insiders said.

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks as he visits a campaign office in Hamtramck, Michigan, U.S. October 18, 2024.

Brian Snyder | Reuters

“There’s no perfect scenario. Both candidates offer some opportunities and challenges,” said a leading lobbyist and public policy expert for a major automaker. “Everyone in our business has to look at the gamut of scenarios.”

Some Wall Street analysts speculate legacy automakers — specifically the “Detroit” companies General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis — would benefit most with Trump and Republican control of Congress.

EV startups such as Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group would benefit more with a Democratic win, largely due to expected plans involving EVs and fuel economy requirements. That’s despite Tesla CEO Elon Musk‘s continued support for Trump.

“Advanced Clean Cars II” regulations of 2022 call for 35% of 2026 model year vehicles, which will begin to be introduced next year, to be zero-emission vehicles. Battery-electric, fuel cell and, to an extent, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles qualify as zero emission.

The California Air Resources Board reports 12 states and Washington, D.C., have adopted the rules; however, roughly half have them starting for the 2027 model year. They are part of CARB’s Advanced Clean Cars regulations that include mandating 100% of new vehicle sales be zero-emission models by 2035.

Only 11 states and the District of Columbia had an EV market share above 10% to begin this year, according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade association and lobby group that represents most major automakers operating in the U.S.

Officials said regardless of who wins the White House, many automakers will push for the CARB mandates to be postponed. They also would expect Trump to roll back or freeze the Corporate Average Fuel Economy, or CAFE, standards for model years 2027-2031.

Several automotive insiders said they expect Harris would work on a middle ground for such standard with the automakers, much like Biden, to an extent, has done.

talking point for Democrats four years ago to a rallying call for Republicans.

Republicans, led by Trump, have largely condemned EVs, saying that they are being forced upon consumers and that they will ruin the U.S. automotive industry. Trump has vowed to roll back or eliminate many vehicle emissions standards under the Environmental Protection Agency and incentives to promote production and adoption of the vehicles.

In contrast, Democrats, including Harris, have historically supported EVs and related incentives.

Harris hasn’t been as vocal about backing EVs lately amid slower-than-expected consumer adoption of the vehicles and consumer pushback. She has said she does not support an EV mandate such as the Zero-Emission Vehicles Act of 2019, which she co-sponsored during her time as a senator, that would have required automakers to sell only electrified vehicles by 2040.

Lucid Group CEO Peter Rawlinson told CNBC on Monday that regardless of which presidential candidate wins the election, he believes America’s EV industry is still in its infancy and needs to continue to be “nurtured.”

Rawlinson, whose company has the most efficient EVs on sale, also argues the IRA should favor not just the size of a battery, like it currently does, but the efficiency of the vehicles.

“That’s effectively incentivizing electron-guzzling EVs,” he said. “It actually incentivized to put more batteries in and be less efficient.”

negotiated under Trump’s first term in office and took effect in 2020. However, the former president and Democrats have said it needs to be improved to better support American automotive production.

While Trump touted the deal when it was renegotiated, Harris was one of 10 U.S. senators who voted against USMCA at the time.

GM CEO Mary Barra last week said the automaker is “paying careful attention” to the election, including how potential changes in trade and tariffs could impact the company.

“We have and we’ll continue to engage constructively with the policymaking process regardless of the election outcome. When you look at the number of jobs created in the U.S., even with some vehicles that are manufactured outside, a lot of them are in our partners from an ally perspective,” she said. “It’s a very complex situation.”

Tariffs are central to Trump’s plan for the auto industry. He has said he would be willing to increase tariffs dramatically to prevent Chinese automakers from importing cars into the U.S. from factories in Mexico.

Chinese automakers are not currently doing that, but are expected to attempt to use that method of importing in the years ahead, as they expand sales and build localized production plants in the country.

Harris has reportedly called Trump’s tariff proposals “a sales tax on the American people.” The vice president hasn’t outlined any specific changes she’d make to the current tariff structure if elected, including on Biden’s announcement of raising the tariff rate on EVs imported from China from 25% to 100%.

Non-U.S.-based automakers, which together account for 48% of U.S. production and 52% of USMCA production, look more positively leveraged to Harris winning, according to Jefferies.

speech at the Democratic National Convention.

The UAW arguably has more political clout than any time in a generation, led by Fain and his top advisors who he brought in from outside the union’s ranks. But there has been a divide in the UAW and other unions regarding the historically Democratic-backed organizations and their members.

While the Teamsters declined to endorse a candidate due to a divide in the union, UAW leaders not only endorsed Harris but have been a driving force for her election campaign in Michigan and other states.

The UAW last week said internal polling showed increasingly “strong support for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, with Harris’ lead over Trump surging in the last month.”

Meanwhile, Trump and Fain have consistently criticized one another over the past year, as the union attempts to organize as many auto plants as possible following major contract gains won during negotiations last year with the traditional Detroit automakers.

Blue-collar workers such as UAW members were viewed as crucial supporters for Trump’s first presidential election over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

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Volkswagen's Scout Motors reveals first EVs as it shifts to include plug-in hybrids

suimt — Fri, 25 Oct 2024 00:49:43 +0000

Scout Terra pickup truck and Scout Traveler SUV concepts

Scout

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Volkswagen-backed Scout Motors revealed its first electric vehicles Thursday and announced plans for the brand to expand its lineup to include an emerging type of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle in addition to EV models.

Scout, a former American vehicle brand from 1961 to 1980, was expected to exclusively offer EVs in a bid for the German automaker to expand its presence in the U.S. However, slower-than-expected adoption of EVs and higher costs have led it to change course and include extended-range electric vehicles, or EREVs.

“Being a startup that moves quickly, we can pivot,” Scout CEO Scott Keogh, a longtime auto executive who previously led VW’s operations in the U.S., told CNBC. “The pivot that we made a number of months ago into offering range extender definitely was a smart play.”

EREVs are basically a type of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. They include EV motors and battery cells, as well as a traditional internal combustion engine to power the vehicle’s electric components when the battery loses its energy. The engine essentially acts as a generator to power the EV components when needed.

Scout Terra pickup truck concept

Keogh said Scout added EREVs to better protect the brand from any market volatility amid less-than-expected consumer demand for EVs.

“We think electrification is the future. Range extender sets it up as an EV car, so it introduces people to electrification, yet it has a super smart, let’s say, ‘backup plan,'” he said during an interview Thursday. “It will drive like an EV.”

He said Scout has no plans to offer a traditional, non-electric vehicle with only an internal combustion engine.

The company’s first vehicles — a full-size pickup truck and large SUV — will cover about 40% of the highly profitable U.S. sales market.

Keogh said the company targets to be profitable on an operational basis within the first full calendar year after initial production of the vehicles, which will be built at a $2 billion plant that’s under construction in South Carolina.

“If you look at these profit pools, these two areas, from this size pickup truck to this sized SUV … these are the largest profit pools in the world,” Keogh said.

Scout Traveler SUV concept

Scout

Being profitable during that timeframe would be quite a success, as current EV startups such as Rivian Automotive and Lucid Group lose tens of thousands of dollars on each vehicle they produce after several years.

Meanwhile, Keogh said an announced software deal between VW and Rivian will not impact Scout’s operations. He described the $5 billion software deal, which includes the establishment of a joint venture, as an “exciting opportunity” for Scout.

“It’s good for scaling. It’s good for technology. It’s good for everything,” Keogh said.

Scout’s South Carolina plant is planned to have a production capacity of 200,000 vehicles. Scout expects to use batteries — the most expensive part of an electric vehicle — from VW’s joint venture battery cell manufacturer in Canada.

The company opened reservations for the vehicles Thursday night on its website. Scout plans to sell the vehicles directly to consumers instead of through a traditional franchised dealer network like VW does in the U.S.

North American Charging Standard, an 800-volt architecture with up to 350-kilowatt charging capability, and will be capable of bi-directional charging that will allow the vehicle to act as a generator.

Toyota Land Cruiser. It’s larger than Jeep’s well-known Wrangler, which is currently available as a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.

The truck is a full-size pickup — a segment currently dominated by Ford, General Motors and Stellantis’ Ram brand. But the electric pickup market where Scout will compete remains a developing market.

Automakers such as GM and Ford rushed to release all-electric pickup trucks early in this decade to compete against several EV startups, many of which never materialized, as well as Tesla. Stellantis is expected to release all-electric and EREV full-size pickups by next year.

Scout Traveler SUV concept

But after rushing the vehicles to market, sales slowed. Much like the overall EV industry, the large vehicles went from commanding significant price premiums to being highly incentivized.

Overall, this electric “truck” market, including the SUVs, accounted for nearly 58,000 vehicles sold during the first half of this year, according to estimates from Motor Intelligence. That’s less than 1% of the roughly 7.9 million light-duty new vehicles sold during that time in the U.S., but a 35% quarterly increase from the first to the second quarter, according to the data.

Keogh believes Scout can differentiate itself in the market with its products, lower pricing and brand appeal. Additional Scout products are expected to follow in the years ahead, Keogh said.

“Can we consider some point in the future sizing down? Absolutely,” he said. “You want to throw the dart at the best place first. And I think we’ve done that between these two vehicles.”

Rivian shares fall after EV maker slashes production forecast, misses Q3 delivery expectations

suimt — Fri, 04 Oct 2024 20:46:18 +0000

Workers assemble second-generation R1 vehicles at electric auto maker Rivian’s manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, U.S. June 21, 2024.

Joel Angel Juarez | Reuters

Shares of Rivian Automotive dropped by as much as 8.9% in intraday trading Friday after the electric vehicle startup delivered fewer vehicles in the third quarter than analysts had expected and lowered its annual production forecast for 2024.

The company said the lower production target — down from 57,000 units to between 47,000 and 49,000 — was because of a “production disruption due to a shortage of a shared component” for its R1 vehicles and commercial van.

“This supply shortage impact began in Q3 of this year, has become more acute in recent weeks and continues. As a result of the supply shortage, Rivian is revising its annual production guidance to be between 47,000 and 49,000 vehicles,” the company said in a statement.

Shares of the Rivian, assisted by an expectation-defying jobs report that boosted markets, recovered some earlier losses to close down by 3.2% to $10.44.

A Rivian spokesman said the component causing the problem is part of its in-house motors, but he declined to disclose any further details.

Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe during a Morgan Stanley investor conference last month alluded to problems with a number of suppliers: “We’ve had a couple of supplier issues of recent that have been challenging and in particular, a few issues around our in-house motors with some of the components that have been painful and a reminder of just how a multi-tiered supply chain can be difficult.”

Shares of Rivian, Tesla and GM in 2024.

Despite the shortage, the company reaffirmed its annual delivery outlook of low single-digit growth as compared with 2023, which it expects to be in a range of 50,500 to 52,000 vehicles.

Rivian disclosed the component shortage as part of reporting its vehicle production and delivery for the third quarter.

The company produced 13,157 vehicles at its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, during the period ended Sept. 30 and delivered 10,018 vehicles in that time. Analyst estimates compiled by FactSet expected deliveries of 13,000 vehicles during the third quarter.

Shares of Rivian are down by 56% in 2024, as EV demand has been slower than expected and the company has burned through a significant amount of cash.