The Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir is happening after 10 years, and the people have voted not merely to elect their representatives or their government but also to participate in elections and draw attention to some of the challenges they face. The voting happened in three phases, on September 18, 25, and October 1. Unlike in the past, the participation of voters in this election is widely perceived as a vote for change, for a return to statehood, and to bring back the voices of civil society and political parties. Moreover, the people are voting for the politics of recognition and the politics of redistribution.

Some months ago in Shopian, Gulzar, in his early 30s, had just entered his house and closed the main gate when a person from an Army convoy came to him, sought his ID card, and ordered him to come to their camp. At the camp, Gulzar was asked to cut his long hair since, according to the Army man, only militants have long hair. Much against his will, Gulzar cut his hair to protect himself from conflict.

The whys of the vote in Kashmir

Gulzar’s story is not unique in Kashmir, but what is important is that in this election, all his family members voted, the women doing so for the first time, but Gulzar did not vote. He believes that the state did not treat him as a free citizen, so he refused to participate. His elder brother, who runs a small business, said he voted for an Independent although he thinks the National Conference (NC) candidate and a rebel of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have a better chance of winning in his constituency. But he hopes that the independent candidate, being a local person, will hear him out whenever he has problems. With no boycotts announced by any group, this Assembly election has seen a high turnout in Shopian in South Kashmir.

Not just Shopian, but other districts such as Kulgam and Pulwama have also seen among the highest voter turnouts in this election, which is significant for three reasons. First, this region has been a hotbed of militancy and seen many street protests in the past years, mainly after the Burhan Wani encounter killing in 2016.

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Second, the PDP has a strong base in this region; the party won 12 out of 16 Assembly seats in South Kashmir in both the 2014 and 2008 Assembly elections. The party is facing a tough fight to retain its base. In the past, the PDP got the anti-NC votes and also received tacit support from Islamic outfits such as the Jamaat-e-Islami. But it is facing the brunt of voter opposition for forming a government with the BJP in 2015. In the years that followed, the government was dissolved, Jammu and Kashmir lost statehood, and Article 370 of the Indian Constitution was abrogated.

Third, the Jamaat-e-Islami, which has a strong presence in this region and usually calls for boycott of elections, is not only appealing to people to vote but is also contesting the election for the first time—after 35 years—in alliance with Baramulla MP Sheikh Abdul “Engineer” Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP).

Of the 13 districts that voted in the first two phases, more places showed an increase in voter turnout (from the previous Assembly election) in phase one. The story changed in the second phase, which saw a lower turnout compared with the previous election. Table 1 shows that of the 13 districts, the turnout jumped only in 5, 3 of them in South Kashmir, and 1 each in Central Kashmir and Chenab Valley. Of the four districts in South Kashmir, barring Anantnag, all districts showed a significant jump in turnout.

Kishtwar saw the highest voter turnout at a little over 80 per cent. The district saw the second-highest jump after Shopian in voter turnout from the previous Assembly election. Voter participation in Srinagar district was very low but still improved by around 2 percentage points from the previous Assembly election. The maximum decline in turnout was observed in Budgam district in Central Kashmir.

Decline in voter turnout among Hindus

If we delve deeper, a significant trend in turnout emerges from the Hindu population. Barring Kishtwar, all districts with a high Hindu population have seen a significant decline in voter turnout. Reasi, which has a 49 per cent Hindu population according to the 2011 Census, saw a 7 per cent decline in voter turnout (Table 2). Similarly, in Rajouri, which has a 35 per cent Hindu population, the turnout declined by 8 per cent.

Table 2 shows another significant relation between turnout change and the BJP’s performance in the 2014 Assembly election when the BJP won 25 Assembly seats, most of them (18) in the Jammu region (which voted on October 1). The sudden rise of the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014 also helped it expand its strength beyond the Jammu region. Of the 50 seats that voted in the first two phases, the party won 7 seats in the 2014 election. These seven seats are spread over five districts in Chenab Valley, Jammu, and the Pir Panjal region. Of the five districts where the BJP won any seats, four saw a decline in turnout.

Another turnout trend can be analysed around the Scheduled Tribe population. According to the 2011 Census, the Scheduled Caste population in the Union Territory is 19 per cent and the ST population is 12 per cent, but the UT has a unique demographic feature: SCs are concentrated in the Jammu region, while STs are concentrated mostly in the Pir Panjal and the Chenab Valley. However, some of the districts in Central and South Kashmir also have an ST population.

Among the STs, the Bakarwal (a nomad community) and the Gujjar have the lion’s share. The share of the ST population will change dramatically in the next Census as the Central government has included the Pahari community (those who live in the mountains of Poonch and Rajouri districts) in the ST category.

Table 3 suggests that all the districts where the ST population is in double digits have seen a decline in turnout. Poonch and Rajouri, which have the highest share of the ST population, show a 4 and 8 per cent decline in turnout respectively. This trend across social segments and in the absence of a boycott call may point to a general reluctance to participate in the electoral process. It becomes more interesting when one considers the significant social engineering, in terms of reservation, undertaken by the Centre.

How reservation changed the game

In March 2024, the UT government announced a 10 per cent reservation in jobs for the Pahari ethnic group and three other tribes (Gadda Brahman, Koli, Padderi). The total reservation for STs in Jammu and Kashmir is now 20 per cent. Earlier, when the Bakarwal and the Gujjar had ST status, they had 10 per cent reservation in the State. In 2020, the government approved a 4 per cent reservation in jobs for the Pahari-speaking population. This year, the government extended this quota to 10 per cent and added three new communities to the quota. The major beneficiaries of the Pahari reservation are the populations in Poonch and Rajouri districts who live in the hills (with a special explanation) and include all religions and caste communities.

The STs in Kashmir are mostly Muslim. The Gujjar and the Bakarwal are Muslim, and because of Mian Altaf Ahmed Larvi of the NC, the Gujjar have been a strong support base for the party for a long time.

Owing to the extension of reservation to the Pahari, the BJP has become a major gainer in the Pir Panjal region. During his field visit, the author met many Muslims who were ready to support the BJP because of the reservation, and because the BJP candidate was a Muslim. In Surankote Assembly constituency of Poonch district, the BJP used to be a marginal player but is a strong contender this time, having fielded the NC turncoat Mushtaq Ahmed Bukhari, a Pahari who was vocal for Pahari reservation.

A similar situation favours the BJP in the Poonch Haveli constituency as well, where aspirational youth and even Sikhs are inclined to support or vote for the BJP due to the Pahari reservation. In Poonch Haveli, Tripti Sharma, who hopes to become a civil servant, was happy with the decision because she believes that due to this, her competition is just among the Pahari (especially from Poonch and Rajouri), and not with the well-facilitated students from Jammu and elsewhere.

The 10 per cent reservation for the Pahari, however, may lead to many questions. First, if language is the criterion for reservation, then should the people who speak Pahari but not live in the hills get the benefits? Second, if habitation is the criterion for reservation, then is it good practice to give reservation to those who are socially and economically well off (a significant number of Paharis own a good share of land)? If these are the criteria, will it not dilute the basic concept of reservation?

All elections are fought on the development plank, but the puzzle in Jammu and Kashmir is about the kind of development. Road, rations, electricity, and other infrastructure are one dimension of development. The other is providing reservation to suppressed communities to uplift them. Both of these could come under the politics of redistribution.

On the other hand, allowing space for people to move about and speak freely is also another kind of development that is required for the human mind. This dimension could fall under the umbrella of the politics of recognition.

In Jammu and Kashmir, this author found a strong demand for both the politics of recognition and redistribution. People accept the fact that the Valley has become more peaceful in the past few years and that road infrastructure has improved tremendously. Governance has also become more accountable. A Sikh in his late 30s, based in Mattan, who works in the National Highways Authority of India, said that under the Lieutenant Governor’s rule they have to reach work on time by sharing their GPS location. While travelling in a local bus from Surankote to Poonch, this author saw some employees of the education department trying to send their GPS coordinates to supervisors.

But the people of Kashmir also believe that after August 2019, under the Lt Governor’s rule, their voices have been suppressed, their basic rights curtailed, and that local people have lost job opportunities to outsiders.

‘Someone to hear us out’

The election campaigns of the NC, the PDP, the AIP, and so on are more focussed on the slogan “sarkar banane se bolne ki aazadi milegi” (electing a government will bring freedom of speech). In Shopian, outside a polling booth, a 50-something man said: “People want change, no election took place in 10 years. We want to elect our representative, someone who will hear us out.” There is no concrete data yet, but voter participation is likely to be higher in rural areas than urban from what one noted on the field. This is because people in rural areas want to have their own MLAs to help them get roads, electricity, water, etc.

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At present, the NC seems to have an edge because it has not been in power for the past 10 years and so, unlike the PDP, it does not face an anti-incumbency sentiment, secondly it has a committed and long-standing cadre base, and thirdly, it is associated with the famous land-to-tiller reform scheme.

This election is being fought on two main planks: electoral autonomy and social-engineering-led development. Which one will weigh uppermost in voters’ minds has emerged as the crucial question.

Ashish Ranjan is an election researcher and co-founder of Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies.