Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini is set to be sworn in for another term on October 17, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in attendance. The oath-taking ceremony will be held at the Dusshera ground in Panchkula Sector 5 at 10 am, the party said in a statement on Saturday, October 12. According to the reports, senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders and chief ministers of some BJP-ruled states will attend the swearing in of Nayab Singh Saini.

BJP leader Sanjay Bhatia had earlier said that the swearing in ceremony will be a big event and smooth arrangements will be made for the people. “We have come to know that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the ceremony. Chief Ministers of nearby states and some Union ministers will also attend it,” he said.

Union Minister Manohar Lal Khattar said, “We have got the nod of the prime minister and on October 17, the oath-taking ceremony of the chief minister and his council of ministers will take place in Panchkula.”

The BJP had indicated during the Assembly election that Nayab Singh Saini, who replaced Manohar Lal Khattar as chief minister of Haryana in March, would be its choice for the top post if the party won the state.

Haryana election results: The Haryana election results were announced on October 8 and the BJP ended up with its best-ever haul of 48 seats, 11 more than the Congress. Three independent MLAs from Haryana, Devender Kadyan, Rajesh Joon and Savitri Jindal have also extended their support to the BJP. The Congress won 37 seats.

The JJP and AAP were decimated and the INLD managed to win just two seats.

Earlier in the day, Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini assured the farmers in the state that it is his government’s commitment to buy crops at MSP and deposit the money directly in the accounts. He also said that the Haryana government is youth welfare-oriented.

“…So far we have bought 5.73 lakh metric tonnes of paddy in the state of Haryana at MSP…and also lifted it and along with this we have also bought about 1.30 lakh metric tonnes of millet and it is our commitment that we will buy the farmer’s crop at MSP and deposit the money directly in the accounts. Today I and all our MLAs were on inspection in the mandis, we will not let any farmer face any problem,” he said.

Defying all exit polls as well as election pundits, the BJP wrested Haryana for the third consecutive time—and entirely on its own. It secured a simple majority, winning 48 seats in the 90-member Assembly.

The outcome shows that the election was largely a bipolar one, with both national parties securing 79.03 per cent of the vote share between themselves and around 11.64 per cent going to independent candidates. The regional parties were more or less sidelined in this election.

The Congress, which was expected to win due to a range of reasons, including a perceived anti-incumbency, secured 37 seats, 9 less than the simple majority required to form the government. If it was some solace, the party secured six more seats than its 2019 tally and bettered its vote share by 12 percentage points.

Politically, the results have been a major setback to former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, under whose leadership the election was fought. The reasons why the Congress could not make a mark are manifold. Among them are the Congress’ failure to assess the extent of anti-incumbency, the infighting in the party, the high command’s interference in candidate selection that possibly led to poor picks, the party’s obduracy to go it alone sans alliances, and just plain hubris. It is likely that the party was overconfident of a victory after it won 5 of the State’s 10 seats in the Lok Sabha election. At the time, it was in an alliance with the AAP and the Left. In the Assembly polls, however, it preferred to stand on its own, save for a seat-sharing arrangement with the CPI(M) for the Bhiwani seat.

Close contest between national parties

The contest between the two national parties was close, with the BJP having secured 39.94 per cent of the vote share and the Congress 39.09 per cent. In Ucchana Kalan where the BJP candidate narrowly defeated former Hisar MP Brajendra Singh, the victory margin was as small as 32 votes. The highest margin, of over 98,000 votes, was secured by the Congress’ Mamman Khan who won the Ferozepur Jhirka seat with a total of 1,30,497 votes. Thirteen women were elected this time: five from the BJP, seven from the Congress and one Independent.

Also Read | BJP scores hat-trick in Haryana, NC-Congress combine sweeps Jammu and Kashmir

The vote share of both parties suggests that held on to their support base and also added a bit more, edging out the regional parties. The BJP bettered its 2019 vote share by 2.94 per cent. Both parties improved their vote shares considerably at the expense of regional parties such as the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and even the Aam Aadmi Party.

Congress, BJP gain at JJP’s expense

The JJP, as Frontline had written earlier, was reduced to a cipher, failing to win even a single seat. Its alliance with the Aazad Samaj Party did not yield any dividends. Its vote share fell to less than 1 per cent from 14.84 per cent in 2019, when it had won 10 seats and formed the government along with the BJP. The gains of the Congress and partly of the BJP seem to have come entirely at the expense of the JJP. Dushyant Chautala, the JJP chief, came a poor fifth in Ucchana Kalan.

The INLD too was confined to two seats in Sirsa but in contrast to its breakaway party, the JJP, it bettered its vote share. The INLD, which had an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), secured 5.96 per cent of the vote share, denting the Jat-Dalit vote base to an extent that otherwise would have benefitted the Congress. Abhay Chautala, the INLD national general secretary, lost the Ellenabad seat to the Congress’ Bharat Beniwal by over 14,000 votes. Chautala had been winning this seat from 2010 onwards.

On the whole, the prominent winners include the outgoing Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Olympian Vinesh Phogat, Aditya Surjewala, Shruti Choudhry, Jindal Group chairperson Savitri Jindal, Arjun Chautala, and outgoing Home Minister Anil Vij. Vij retained the Ambala Cantt seat for the fourth time defeating his nearest rival Chitra Sarwara, a Congress rebel who contested as an Independent, by 7,277 votes. It is possible that had there been no rebel candidate, the results would have swung in favour of the Congress. The official Congress candidate, who got slightly over 14,000 votes, forfeited his security deposit.

A total of 17 sitting Congress candidates lost in the election. Prominent among those who lost across parties include Abhay Chautala, Dushyant Chautala, Bhavya Bishnoi, outgoing Haryana Speaker Gian Chand Gupta, Captain Abhimanyu, and O.P. Dhankar. Five outgoing Ministers lost in this election, including prominent Jat leaders in the BJP such as Captain Abhimanyu and O.P. Dhankar.

Hooda has much to answer for

The outcome in Haryana was a surprise even for the BJP. It could not have bargained for a better result. As for the Congress, its State leadership under Hooda has a lot to answer for. Sources said that some five candidates who were picks of the Congress high command lost. The expected Jat-Dalit consolidation also did not take place to the desired extent in favour of the Congress as this vote got diversified among other parties, especially the INLD-BSP which together secured a vote share of 6.96 per cent.

It also cannot be said that the BJP got most of the non-Jat vote in the State. It has been argued that some of its prominent Jat candidates like O.P. Dhankar or Captain Abhimanyu would not have lost had they received the full backing of the non-Jat votes in their respective constituencies.

Also Read | Haryana: Caste as the swing factor

Likewise, the defeat of almost all the sitting Ministers barring Chief Minister Saini needs explanation. They would have won if all it took was smart social engineering in the nature of a non-Jat OBC consolidation behind the BJP. Similarly, it cannot be said that the Congress secured only the votes of the Jats or that the Dalits moved away from the party because Ambala MP Kumari Selja was sidelined. Of the 17 reserved constituencies, the Congress won in 9 and the BJP in 8.

In Ambala, Selja’s own Lok Sabha constituency, the Congress won all the segments barring the Ambala Cantt seat. It lost this seat only because of a rebel Congress candidate. But this candidate’s father, who was the official Congress candidate from Ambala city, won.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the INDIA bloc as a whole had secured 47.61 per cent of the vote share, with the Congress alone getting 43.67 per cent. In contrast, the BJP secured 46.11 per cent on its own, without any alliance. The Congress was perhaps optimistic because it had secured a lead in 46 Assembly segments compared to the BJP’s 44. But then, overconfidence always has a price.

The BJP coasted towards a hat-trick win with its biggest tally in Haryana and the National Conference (NC)-Congress combine was set to form the government in Jammu and Kashmir, voters in both places giving the victors a decisive edge as counting day progressed with many a surprise on October 8.

One State, one Union Territory, and three main stakeholders. Bucking exit poll predictions and pollsters in the first elections after the June 2024 Lok Sabha verdict, the results threw up a mixed bag for the BJP, sobering lessons for the Congress but clear-cut unambiguous victory for the NC, which led the alliance to power in Jammu and Kashmir.

With wins or leads in 48 of the 90 seats, according to the Election Commission website, Haryana’s ruling BJP readied for a third consecutive term—after early morning trends showed it trailing behind the Congress. However, trends showed the saffron party ahead or winning only in 29 of 90 seats in Jammu and Kashmir.

If the results were a timely boost for the BJP ahead of the election in Maharashtra later this year, they were a massive downer for the Congress, hoping to consolidate its gains from the Lok Sabha verdict and had begun the morning with enthusiastic leaders distributing sweets.

Battling discord in its top leadership in Haryana, where it was expecting to come to power, the Congress had won or was leading in 36 seats in the State, five more than it got last time but far below the 46 needed to form the government. In Jammu and Kashmir, the party piggybacked on the NC to come to power but was ahead only in six of the 32 seats it contested.

Haryana: Writing on the wall

The party raised with the Election Commission the issue of an “unexplained slowdown” in updating results of the Haryana election and urged it to direct officials to update accurate figures so “false news and malicious narratives” can be countered immediately.

But the writing on the wall was loud and clear. As the vote count in Haryana oscillated between the ruling and the opposition parties with the morning hours delivering a nail-biter, the vote share was also tantalisingly close. Three hours after counting began at 8 am, the BJP was at 38.7 per cent and the Congress a little more at 40.5 per cent. By 3.45 pm, the Congress was down to 39.05 per cent and the BJP had inched ahead at 39.89.

“The Congress will get a majority. Congress will form government in Haryana,” veteran Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda told reporters in Rohtak earlier in the morning. Kumari Selja, his party colleague and a rival for the chief ministerial post had the Congress won Haryana, was also sure her party would emerge victorious. “Hold your horses. Congress will form a government with overwhelming majority,” she said. After that though, the party was mostly silent.

Among the party’s high profile winners was Vinesh Phogat, the wrestler-turned-politician who broke a million hearts when she lost out on her Olympic medals. She won the Julana seat by 6,015 votes. However, hers was also a seesaw battle for much of the day.

Also Read | Haryana: Caste as the swing factor

The BJP, which had 41 seats in the outgoing assembly, was triumphant with its largest tally till date. “I am confident of forming the government for a third time in Haryana. In less than 45 minutes, Ashok Tanwar joined Rahul Gandhi from the BJP rally… that shows the quality of infrastructure and roads the BJP government developed,” outgoing Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini said, tongue firmly in cheek as he took a swipe at his former party colleague Tanwar.

With the BJP set to form power, party leader Anil Vij also threw his hat into the ring. “In our party, individuals do not announce these things. Earlier, I had only made it clear that I am not averse to it [being named Chief Minister]. The decision will be taken by the high command,” Vij, who was set to win from Ambala Cantt after trailing in the morning, said.

Interestingly, the numbers in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir almost mirrored each other: both 90-member assemblies, the BJP winning or leading in the former with 48 seats and the NC-Congress-CPI(M) firmly ahead in the latter with a similar number (49).

Jammu and Kashmir: Clear victory for NC-led combine

The NC scored big in Jammu and Kashmir, where the Assembly election is being held for the first time since Article 370 of the Constitution was abrogated and the State bifurcated into two Union Territories. It won 41 seats (leading in one more seat) of the 51 it contested while its “junior partner” Congress bagged six of the 32 it fought. The BJP was leading in 29 seats, Independents in seven, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in four. Among those who lost her election was PDP’s Iltija Mufti, daughter of party president Mehbooba Mufti.

“I accept the verdict of the people. The love & affection I received from everyone in Bijbehara will always stay with me. Gratitude to my PDP workers who worked so hard throughout this campaign,” Iltija Mufti posted on X.

BJP candidate Devender Rana won from the Nagrota segment with the highest margin in the Assembly election. Rana, who had won in the 2014 Assembly election on the NC ticket, retained the Nagrota seat on the BJP ticket by a margin of 30,472 votes. His nearest rival, NC’s Joginder Singh, got 17,641 votes.

AICC general secretary Ghulam Ahmad Mir also won big with a margin of 29,728 votes, closely followed by Rana’s fellow NC defector to the BJP, Surjit Singh Slathia, who won by a margin of 29,481 votes from the Samba seat. Also among the prominent winners was CPI(M) leader M.Y. Tarigami, who won from Kulgam for the fifth time by defeating the former head of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), Sayar Ahmad Reshi, by over 7,800 votes. The AAP also opened its account in Jammu and Kashmir, with its candidate Mehraj Malik emerging victor in Doda by polling 23,228 votes against the BJP candidate Gajay Singh Rana’s 18,690 votes.

Baramulla MP Sheikh Abdul “Engineer” Rashid, who had made headlines after defeating NC’s Omar Abdullah earlier this year in the Lok Sabha election, however failed to make an impact, with his Awami Ittehad Party bagging just one seat in Langate, where his brother Khursheed Ahmad Sheikh won by a margin of over 1,600 votes.

The day, however, belonged to NC leader Omar Abdullah, who won from both Budgam and Ganderbal seats in the Valley he contested.

Ready for a second stint as Chief Minister—he was last Chief Minister from 2009-14—he told reporters that efforts had been underway to finish his party. “But those who wanted to finish us have been wiped out. Our responsibilities have increased,” he said. As the party readied for power along with the Congress, his father, NC president Farooq Abdullah, said categorically: “Omar Abdullah will be the chief minister.” The NC president also said the verdict was proof that the people of Jammu and Kashmir were against the abrogation of Article 370.

Also Read | Jammu and Kashmir: The battle that lies beyond elections

“The people have given their verdict and proven that the decisions taken on August 5, 2019, are not acceptable to them,” he said. “I am thankful to everyone that the people participated in the polls and did so freely. I am grateful to God for the results.”

Farooq Abdullah said the elected government would have to do a lot of work to end the “sufferings” of the people. “We have to end unemployment and address issues like inflation and drug menace. Now, there will be no LG and his advisors. Now, there will be 90 MLAs who will work for people,” he said.

(with inputs from agencies)