Senior National Conference leader and former minister Abdul Rahim Rather was elected speaker of the Jammu and Kashmir assembly, which convened in Srinagar on Monday, November 4, for its first session in six years.

The Union Territory’s Minister for Agriculture Production, Rural Development, Panchayati Raj, and Cooperatives, Javid Ahmed Dar, moved the motion to elect Rather as the speaker of the 90-member house.

After his election, Rather was escorted to the chair by the Leader of the House, Omar Abdullah, and BJP’s Sunil Sharma, the Leader of the Opposition.

Rather had earlier held the post of the Speaker in the legislative assembly of the erstwhile State of Jammu and Kashmir. He was also the Leader of the Opposition from 2002 to 2008, when the PDP-Congress coalition government ruled the State.

All eyes will be on the Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, Manoj Sinha‘s address scheduled at 11:30 am. The session will continue for 5 days.

All eyes on Article 370 resolution

The NC, which won the UT’s assembly polls in alliance with the Congress party, is expected to move a resolution on Article 370 to ‘register a protest against the Centre’s measures taken on August 5, 2019’.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Union government’s move in 2019 not only abrogated the special provision but also split the erstwhile state into two Union Territories – Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, also NC vice president, had pledged to bring a resolution on Article 370 in the Assembly in its first session.

The NC has the support of 55 MLAs in the 90-member Assembly, which was elected in September-October after a 10-year gap. Jammu and Kashmir was under the President’s rule from 2018 until the latest assembly elections.

Abdul Rahim Rather’s election as Speaker symbolizes a new chapter in Jammu and Kashmir’s legislative history.

The Assembly’s first session started on November 4 and will conclude on November 8. Besides the L-G address, obituary references for former legislators who passed away since the last session of the erstwhile J&K Assembly are also scheduled to be taken up.

As per the schedule, the Motion of Thanks on the L-G’s address will be discussed on November 6 and 7.

Autumn is calling and the leaves of Kashmir’s famed chinar tree are falling, as if to draw attention to the multiple layers of the region’s complex political landscape. The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC)—the region’s oldest political formation since 1931, originally founded as the All Jammu and Kashmir Muslim Conference and later rechristened as NC in 1939—won a decisive mandate in the 2024 Assembly election, held after a yawning gap of a decade. In a significantly altered political setting after August 2019, there are myriad challenges and a few opportunities for Omar Abdullah, the new Chief Minister of what is still a Union Territory.

Omar Abdullah is aware that the path ahead is not rosy. He wears a crown of thorns as the Chief Minister of a restive region that lost its semi-autonomous status, its Constitution and separate flag, and also statehood on August 5, 2019. That is perhaps why he is making conciliatory gestures toward the BJP-led Central government and avoiding confrontation—at least for now—after getting enough votes to resist the saffron party’s “Kashmir project” during his high-decibel election campaign.

In his first Cabinet meeting, he passed a resolution on the restoration of statehood, which was, interestingly, approved by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha, but it remains to be seen if his party will now move a similar resolution in the first session of the Assembly to be convened on November 4. The Cabinet meeting left the issue of special status and abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A untouched. This was the first signal that Omar Abdullah’s pacifying tone has the BJP’s backing.

While the pressure is mounting on Omar not only to pass this resolution but also to demand the restoration of Articles 370 and 35A in the Assembly, Omar for his part talks about pragmatism. “The people who took Jammu and Kashmir’s special status away from us in 2019 are not going to be the ones to give it back to us in 2024. This is not the Assembly we deserve. But this Assembly will get us to that Assembly,” he said in a recent interview with a foreign media outlet.

In a recent statement, Farooq Abdullah, Jammu and Kashmir’s former Chief Minister and Omar’s father, downplayed the need to restore Article 370. In a marked departure from his earlier stance, the senior Abdullah highlighted the need to resolve “people’s everyday issues” first. “The most important task for the current government is to address the problems faced by ordinary citizens,” he told local reporters in Srinagar.

Restoring Articles 370 and 35A plus statehood

Omar Abdullah’s opponents were swift to remind him that his party won the mandate to undo the changes made five years ago. They insinuated that the NC was “ratifying and normalising reading down of Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution”. Omar’s political rivals described his latest statements as a “U-turn”.

Sajad Lone, member of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly from North Kashmir’s Handwara constituency and Omar Abdullah’s fiercest rival, expressed surprise that people voted for the NC despite knowing the party’s “long history of U-turns and betrayals”. “In the context of political aspirations of the people of Jammu and Kashmir, the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly is the proper institution for addressing major issues like that of statehood or Article 370,” Lone told Frontline, adding that “the will of the people of Jammu and Kashmir is reflected in the Assembly, not in the Cabinet”.

Also Read | Kashmir’s guarded optimism 

Waheed ur Rehman Parra, the MLA representing South Kashmir’s Pulwama constituency and a youth leader of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), told Frontline: “Instead of vociferously condemning the abrogation of Article 370 and demanding restoration of special status, the Omar Abdullah-led Cabinet has put a stamp of approval on the BJP’s ‘Mission Kashmir’. In its first Cabinet meeting, the new government should have respected the mandate by demanding restoration of special status, and of Jammu and Kashmir’s constitution and flag.”

Reliable sources in the NC told Frontline that a resolution rejecting the abrogation of Article 370 and demanding restoration of special status for Jammu and Kashmir will be passed inside the Assembly at an “appropriate time”. Sources added that the statehood resolution came up first in the cabinet because “it is the first logical step”, as Article 370 remains the purview of the legislature. “A confrontational approach is not the way forward. An incremental approach is the path ahead. The National Conference stands committed to what has been promised in its manifesto. Give us some time,” a top NC source told Frontline.

In its party manifesto, the NC pledges that it will “strive for the full implementation of the Autonomy Resolution passed by the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly in 2000. We strive to restore Articles 370, 35A, and statehood as prior to August 5, 2019.” The manifesto also promises that “in the interim period we will endeavour to redraw the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, 2019, and the Transaction of Business of the Government of Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir Rules, 2019”.

In its detailed manifesto, the NC vociferously talks about identity, dignity, and development. In the 12 guarantees, restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s political and legal status tops the list. Additionally, the manifesto promises a comprehensive job package for youths; restoring normalcy; granting relief to consumers from inflated electricity and water bills; creating robust health infrastructure and more.

Previously, Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir would be fought for local governance, administrative issues, and “sadak, bijli, aur pani” (roads, electricity, and potable water), as unionists would emphasise the need to delink the electoral process from external factors and the larger Kashmir issue. They would make a case before the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, a pro-resolution conglomerate, that boycotting elections was a wrong strategy.

In 2024, however, the NC has linked the electoral process with the larger Kashmir issue. “We advocate for Indo-Pak dialogue as the best method to resolve ongoing conflicts,” the NC manifesto reads.

“On August 5, 2019, the BJP once again betrayed the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Degrading the constitution, the BJP harmed the constitutional, moral, ethical, and legal relationship with Jammu and Kashmir for electoral gains. For the first time in independent India’s history, a prosperous state was downgraded and divided into two Union Territories,” the manifesto reads, adding, “This act exhibited the BJP’s disdain for the people of Jammu and Kashmir, devoid of any sense of righteousness.”

In the words of Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, the MP from Central Kashmir’s Srinagar constituency, “The National Conference represents the sentiments and aspirations of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. The voters have collectively registered their dissent against the unconstitutional and undemocratic abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A.” At his residence in Central Kashmir’s Budgam district, Mehdi told Frontline: “These elections happened after the decisions made on August 5, 2019, when the status of our State was degraded and constitutional guarantees abrogated without the consent and concurrence of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. We do not accept this degraded status where we feel as second-class citizens.”

Mehdi has been a vocal critic of reading down of Articles 370 and 35A. According to the outspoken parliamentarian, if any member from his party even thinks about diluting their stance on the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy or special status, he or she “will have to face opposition from Ruhullah Mehdi”. The senior NC leader sounded confident that his party colleagues in government would meet the people’s expectations.

‘Political wisdom’ of voters

The last Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir was held in 2014. In August 2019, the region lost its semi-autonomous status and statehood, and Jammu and Kashmir was downgraded to the status of a federally administered territory, with Ladakh carved out as a separate Union Territory. Given this backdrop, a decisive mandate in favour of the NC, Congress, and the CPI(M) is being viewed by political pundits as a resounding rejection of the changes made on August 5, 2019.

A decisive mandate in favour of the NC is less about the party’s popularity on the ground and more about the “political wisdom” demonstrated by the voters to telegraph an unambiguous verdict against the changes made on 5 August 2019, according to veteran political scientists.

Professor Noor Ahmad Baba, one of Kashmir’s leading political scientists, is of the view that Kashmiri voters have “exhibited a high degree of wisdom” to keep the BJP out. “The verdict carries an important messaging that a vast majority in Jammu and Kashmir is displeased with what was done to the region in August 2019,” Baba told Frontline, adding that in a powerless Assembly, Omar Abdullah will find it difficult to deliver results if he does not remain in constant dialogue with his voters and people.

The analyst made another key point about the huge expectations of voters, especially in the Kashmir Valley. “The new Chief Minister must focus on the ‘doables’ first. The regional and religious divide between Kashmir and Jammu plains has sharpened and needs to be bridged with a responsible and responsive governance model.”

Also Read | Jammu and Kashmir: The battle that lies beyond elections

Omar addressed concerns raised about the representation of Jammu to an extent by choosing Surinder Kumar Choudhary, who defeated Jammu and Kashmir BJP chief Ravinder Raina in the Nowshera Assembly segment in the Jammu region, for the post of Deputy Chief Minister.

“The reality on the ground tells a different story. We appointed a Deputy Chief Minister from Jammu, a Hindu who is not a member of my family. This decision refutes the baseless accusations of those who sought to sow discord between the two regions,” Omar said, adding that the appointment showcased “the deep commitment of the NC to the people of Jammu”.

J&K Assembly: ‘Almost a handcuffed creature’

Not everyone seems impressed, though.

Pravin Sawhney, who writes on defence and security matters, said it was a bitter pill to swallow for the people of Kashmir to see Omar Abdullah forgetting and backtracking about Article 370 and telling media that his “priority was to make the Union territory a State”.

“This is a vote by the people of Jammu and Kashmir against the Narendra Modi government at the Centre, a clear rejection of what the BJP did to Kashmir on August 5, 2019,” Sawhney told Frontline. According to him, “the first order of business should have been to seek restoration of Article 370, as the voters were expecting the same.”

According to Mehmood Ur Rashid, Kashmir’s well-known political commentator, “the powers of the government have been curtailed to a degree where the Assembly would be an almost a handcuffed creature.” In his newspaper column, Rashid argued that the voters’ verdict is not “a moment of celebration” but “a catharsis of sorts”.

“The faceless bureaucracy that held sway for all these years (since August 2019) is no less than an affliction for any people. The people have felt suffocated because they had no-one to share their day-to-day miseries with,” the veteran commentator wrote.

Haseeb Drabu, an economist and Jammu and Kashmir’s former Finance Minister in the PDP-BJP coalition government (2015-18), believes that Omar Abdullah will find it hard to administer a Union Territory. “Historically, the NC’s model of governance has been to keep Delhi on its side. However, in a powerless Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, there will be serious administrative challenges for the new government,” Drabu told Frontline. In his understanding, the BJP is under no political compulsion whatsoever to restore statehood immediately, although Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have repeatedly made public statements committing to the restoration of statehood.

Apart from navigating the power tussle between the elected representatives and the Lt Governor’s office, another challenge for the new government is to address issues related to routine governance, provide jobs to the unemployed youth, revisit the exorbitant electricity tariff, control price rise, and deal with security challenges.

On October 20, at least seven persons, including six migrant labourers and a Kashmiri doctor, were killed when armed militants attacked a tunnel construction site on the Srinagar-Leh highway in Central Kashmir’s Ganderbal district. According to the Jammu and Kashmir Police, at around 8 pm, a group of unidentified gunmen opened fire upon labourers associated with Apco Infratech (which is constructing a 6.5 km Z-Morh tunnel to connect the Gagangir area with Sonmarg, a popular tourist resort). The NC government will be under pressure to prevent such incidents going forward.

A political earthquake

Earlier, on a pleasant afternoon of October 8, many people shared scenes capturing a fleet of cars ferrying enthusiastic supporters of the NC on Srinagar’s famed Boulevard and Gupkar roads bearing the party flags. The images were symbolic in more ways than one.

Exactly 19 years ago on October 8, 2005, Kashmir Valley had woken up to a 7.6 magnitude earthquake, resulting in the death of at least 1,350 people while thousands lost their homes either partially or completely. Nearly two decades later, the people of Jammu and Kashmir have witnessed a political earthquake, as the NC won 42 Assembly constituencies, 35 of those from the Valley, in the 90-member House. By forenoon, as it became obvious that the NC would emerge as the single largest party, it was perhaps for the first time since August 2019 that party workers and supporters chanted slogans against the BJP with a “sense of achievement” and without “fear of retribution”.

Also Read | Kashmir Assembly election 2024: A vivid portrait of democracy in action

The Congress party, which fought the election as a pre-poll alliance partner of the NC, won only six Assembly segments, five from Kashmir and one from Pir Panjal region but none from either the Chenab Valley or Jammu plains. In terms of electoral arithmetic, the mandate has been in favour of the NC-Congress grouping but not winning seats in the Jammu plains remains a major worry for the Rahul Gandhi-led party. Still, with Kashmir’s lone Communist leader Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami winning a seat from South Kashmir’s Kulgam region, always a CPI (M) citadel, the INDIA-bloc won 49 seats, a substantial mandate to form the government. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and four Independents later offered support to take the anti-BJP alliance’s tally to 54.

Even with such numbers, the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly does not enjoy full powers. For all intents and purposes, the Lt Governor will be calling the shots in the near future in what Omar Abdullah calls a “disempowered legislature”.

Gowhar Geelani is a senior journalist and author of Kashmir: Rage and Reason.

Hurriyat Conference Chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, the religious head of Kashmiri Muslims, talks to Amit Baruah in this episode of the Frontline Conversations podcast at his home in Nigeen, Srinagar. After years of house arrest, he shares his views on Kashmir’s current situation and its future. The Mirwaiz discusses the recent elections in Kashmir, calling them a “consolidated ballot” against the changes made by New Delhi since 2019. He says people voted to show they reject these changes, not because they’re happy with the “Naya Kashmir” idea. He talks about how the BJP government’s actions have affected Kashmir.

The Mirwaiz believes that removing Article 370 hasn’t solved any problems. Instead, he thinks it has made the Kashmir issue more international, with China now involved because of Ladakh. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq compares the current BJP government with Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s time. He remembers Vajpayee’s efforts to solve the Kashmir issue “within the ambit of insaniyat” (humanity). The Mirwaiz sees the current government’s approach as very different, saying it wants to “finish the identity of the people of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).”

Edited transcript of the podcast:

Also Read | Kashmir’s guarded optimism 

Also Read | Can you have peace minus the people?: Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami

Amit Baruah is a senior journalist and author of Dateline Islamabad. He has reported from Delhi, Colombo, Islamabad, and Southeast Asia.

Historically, in Haryana, the Congress has had strong support among Jats, Muslims, and Jatavs, who represent about 40 per cent of the electorate: but the BJP managed to navigate through this and gain support from the Jatavs and Muslims by focusing on other criteria, particularly following the Supreme Court’s verdict on Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) categorisation, election analyst Ashish Ranjan tells Frontline Conversations. As for Jammu and Kashmir, while the most striking issue remains the call for Statehood, the National Conference (NC) was their best option.

Also Read | How did the BJP pull off an unexpected win in Haryana?

Also Read | Kashmir election: Quest for electoral autonomy versus social engineering-led development

Saba Naqvi is a Delhi-based journalist and author of four books who writes on politics and identity issues.

Sunny day in Ganderbal, a constituency recently won by Omar Abdullah in the Assembly elections. Omar Abdullah’s comeback paints a picture of guarded optimism, with locals torn between hope for change and skepticism about the new government’s limited powers.
| Photo Credit: Amit Baruah

Amit Baruah is a senior journalist and author of “Dateline Islamabad”. He has reported from Delhi, Colombo, Islamabad, and Southeast Asia.

Jammu and Kashmir held its first Assembly election in 10 years, a significant event following the region’s loss of special status under Article 370 and statehood on August 5, 2019. While numerous political leaders contested the election, the entry of Sheikh Abdul “Engineer” Rashid, founder of Awami Ittehad Party and Lok Sabha MP from Baramulla, drew particular attention. Recently released from Delhi’s Tihar jail (from where he contested the Lok Sabha election and won, defeating National Conference’s Omar Abdullah), Rashid’s campaign rallies attracted large crowds, though opposition leaders from the NC and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) accused him of being a BJP proxy. Ahead of the October 8 results, Engineer Rashid spoke to Frontline in an exclusive interview. Excerpts:

Also Read | Jammu and Kashmir: The battle that lies beyond elections

Also Read | The fundamental demand is the restoration of Statehood: Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami

Irfan Amin Malik is a journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir.

National Conference chief Farooq Abdullah insisted on Sunday that his party would form the Jammu and Kashmir government in alliance with the Congress. The remarks came mere hours after exit polls broached the possibility of a hung Assembly while giving a clear lead to the combine. The NC chief also indicated that his party would welcome a coalition with former Gupkar Alliance member PDP.

“..I am confident that NC and Congress will comfortably form the govt. I congratulate them (to PDP if they want to extend their support to our alliance). We all are on the same path, we need to end the hatred and keep Jammu and Kashmir integrated,” he said.

The Mehbooba Mufti-led party might find itself playing kingmaker in the northern union territory after exit poll broached the possibility of a hung verdict. Six exit polls suggest that no single party will secure a clear majority. However some placed the Congress-NC combine within reach of the majority mark.

PDP leader Zuhaib Yousuf Mir had earlier hinted at the possibility of an alliance with the Congress and NC in order to keep BJP at bay. The Lal Chowk candidate stressed the need to form a secular government ‘against the BJP’ on Friday amid exit polls predictions.

“PDP is confident that it will be an indispensable and important part of the secular government that will form in J-K. PDP will have an important role in forming any secular government,” Mir had said.

“Congratulations to them, this is a great thing. We are all on the same track, nafrat ko hume khatam karna hai, aur Jammu and Kashmir ko ikhate rakhna hai (we need to end the hatred, and keep Jammu and Kashmir united),” Abdullah told ANI in response.

According to TV-Today C-voter projections, the NC-Congress alliance is likely to win 40-48 seats while the BJP can win 27-32. Former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party is likely to win 6-12 seats whereas others can win 6-11. As per Dainik Bhaskar’s projection, the NC-Congress alliance can win seats ranging from 35-40. The BJP can win 20-25 seats, PDP 4-7 while the others can win 12-18 seats.

The People Pulse survey has predicted 46-50 seats for the NC-Congress alliance and 23-27 for the BJP. As per them, the PDP can win 7-11 whereas the others can win 4-6 seats.The Gulistan News projection on Republic TV projected 28-30 seats for the National Conference, 3-6 seats for the Congress, 5-7 seats for the PDP and 8-16 seats for other parties and independents.

(With inputs from agencies)

A woman shows her inked finger after casting her vote at a polling booth during the third and final phase of the Assembly election, at Tangmarg in Baramulla district, Jammu and Kashmir, on October 1.
| Photo Credit: PTI

In the contested and storied valleys of Jammu and Kashmir, the political atmosphere teems with unprecedented fervour as people vote in the third phase of the Assembly election on October 1. After years of uncertainty and fractured governance, both political stalwarts and nascent independent voices are vying for the reins of a region whose identity remains suspended between memory and modernity. In the first election since the erstwhile State was split into two Union Territories and lost its semi-autonomous status, everything is new and different. Voters are electing in a completely new landscape that is largely seen as having been shifted to align with the BJP’s political interests.

For the people of Jammu and Kashmir, this election presents a crossroads: between participating in a process that symbolises the erosion of their political autonomy or rejecting it as a hollow spectacle. For regional parties, long sidelined under direct Central rule, the election signifies a fraught re-entry into a landscape where their agency has been profoundly circumscribed. The electoral framework has been stripped of its historical safeguards, forcing both people and parties to navigate a terrain redefined by a central authority whose grip has tightened, leaving a fundamental question: does this election restore legitimacy or entrench disempowerment?

A symbolic election

Jammu and Kashmir’s electoral landscape has often mirrored its political turbulence, where elections became symbols rather than instruments of popular will. The 1953 arrest of Sheikh Abdullah marked the beginning of a fraught relationship between democracy and the region’s unique identity. From the dismissal of Sheikh Abdullah in 1953 to the blatant rigging of the 1987 State election, the Centre has orchestrated political outcomes to maintain its grip on the region. These interventions already sabotaged the autonomy promised under Article 370, eroding trust in electoral legitimacy.

The formal abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 without consulting local representatives was the ultimate display of coercive federalism, further disenfranchising the people and rendering democratic participation superficial. The delayed Assembly election, even after the abrogation of Article 370, left Jammu and Kashmir under prolonged Central rule, sidelining democratic processes. The 2020 District Development Council elections were marred by the detention of key political leaders and restrictions on opposition parties. These tactics underscore the Centre’s calculated attempts to manipulate political outcomes while projecting a facade of electoral legitimacy.

Also Read | Kashmir election: Quest for electoral autonomy versus social engineering-led development

Even the present election, held after a decade, is constrained within a suffocating, controlled space, dictated by the BJP’s aggressive integrationist agenda. Once-diverse political parties are forced to compete within a framework that limits autonomy and stifles dissent. The idea of political competition is a façade, where the narrative of integration overpowers all other concerns and alternative visions for the region’s future. This is less a return to democracy and more a sanctioned performance of compliance.

The BJP’s strategy has turned Jammu and Kashmir’s regional parties into caricatures of their former selves. They find themselves vying for relevance within the same political framework that stripped them of power. This is no accident—it is a deliberate move by the BJP to erode their credibility. By making them complicit in a system they once opposed, the BJP has ensured that these parties now appear two-faced, alienating their base and making them politically impotent.

However, the establishment of a bona fide electoral mechanism is also today the foremost prerequisite to conveying the message that the political agency and genuine representation of the people of Jammu and Kashmir is indispensable.

Ideological battle

More than five years after the unilateral move to redraw the political map of the restive Valley, peace is not only fragile, but elusive. The BJP’s narrative that the abrogation has heralded a new era of democracy rings hollow, as it coincides with the centralisation of power, suppression of dissent, and the incarceration of political leaders and journalists.

The abrogation was framed as a move that would spur economic development and tackle unemployment in Jammu and Kashmir. However, the data shows a different reality. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, the unemployment rate in Jammu and Kashmir was as high as 23.1 per cent in May 2023, significantly above the national average of around 7 per cent. Additionally, foreign direct investment remains negligible, and industrial growth has been limited.

The election here is not for better amenities but is a barometer of trust in the Centre and the future. Until the foundations of peace are laid firmly, no lofty blueprint of development can be drawn up. A persistent longing for the reinstatement of a political order that gave exclusive rights—from residency privileges to entitlements for employment and educational benefits—solely for the local populace can be heard through the Valley. Only through the re-establishment of such legal and constitutional guarantees can the Valley’s historical autonomy and regional specificity be preserved, ensuring that the original ethos of localised governance is not permanently eroded.

The way forward

The challenges facing Jammu and Kashmir require thoughtful solutions that balance political, social, and constitutional considerations. The new legislature must not be reduced to a colonial relic, devoid of real authority and functioning merely as a rubber stamp for directives from New Delhi. Restoring statehood stands at the heart of any resolution, as it would revive the region’s political identity and grant its people a sense of autonomy. An empowered Legislative Assembly must follow, one that is not merely symbolic but vested with genuine authority to govern effectively, addressing local needs and aspirations.

Also Read | Statehood not a gift for BJP or government to give: Omar Abdullah

With boycott calls fading and an eager electorate, the moment is ripe for the Centre to signal its commitment—one that transcends mere politics—to safeguarding the dignity, identity, and agency of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. By embracing this opportunity, the government can affirm that the will of the people, and not political manoeuvring, will be the driving force in the region’s future.

Democracy has been denied to the people of Jammu and Kashmir for the last seven decades. But today, when the BJP is pushing for a greater Hindu-isation of India at the cost of minority rights, and with its semi-autonomous status now removed, the region’s residents fear a threat to their identity, dignity, and agency. Empowering the people to shape their own destiny will not only restore trust but also lay the foundation for a more inclusive and peaceful governance in the future.

Bilal Ahmad Wagay teaches politics at Government Degree College, Beerwah. Binish Qadri is Assistant Professor, Cluster University Srinagar.

Despite allegations that he is a “proxy” of the BJP, Sheikh Abdul “Engineer” Rashid—with his “shared victimhood” narrative—seems to have struck a chord with a section of the electorate in Kashmir, much to the chagrin of established parties.

“This naya Kashmir is a Kashmir of atrocities, killings, and torture…” said Engineer Rashid at a rally in North Kashmir’s small town of Delina on September 12.

His statement resonated deeply among a few thousand people who had gathered in Delina to hear and catch a glimpse of the parliamentarian speak at his first rally since being released from Tihar Jail. Among them was 29-year-old Waseem Ahmed from Malangam village in Bandipora district, who had travelled over 31 km to attend the event.

“Every Kashmiri feels this but is too afraid to speak up,” Ahmed said, referring to Rashid’s criticism of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s vision of “Naya Kashmir”, which the saffron party claims is a new golden era for Jammu and Kashmir since the revocation of the erstwhile State’s special status. “Only Rashid truly understands the suffering of ordinary Kashmiris because he has endured it himself.”

Rashid, who was arrested in the run-up to the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 and charged under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) that accused him of funding separatist activities in Jammu and Kashmir, was addressing his first rally following his interim bail from a Delhi court to campaign for the ongoing Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election.

Following his release, Rashid did not pull his punches. He called for resolution of the Kashmir issue, highlighted the plight of Kashmiri prisoners needing medical attention, and repeatedly vowed to fight for the restoration of Article 370.

Also Read | Engineer Rashid’s defiant victory a turning point for Kashmir’s democratic future

“Unlike other leaders, only Rashid has the will to fight Modi,” Ahmed told Frontline in Delina. “When other leaders came out of captivity [after Article 370 was revoked], they acted like nothing had changed. People heard their cries for power, not for Kashmir’s suffering.”

Others at the rally shared similar sentiments. Mohammed Nazim Bhat, a 32-year-old salesman from Azad Gunj in Baramulla, attended the rally despite his family’s support for the National Conference (NC). “My family has long supported the NC,” Bhat said. “But since 2019, Rashid has suffered far more than the entire NC. Why shouldn’t I support someone who truly understands my pain?”

Disruptor or ‘proxy’?

However, besides highlighting distinct perspectives, Rashid’s release has also introduced a fresh dynamic to Kashmir’s politics, making him appear more disruptive. While mainstream parties in Kashmir are trying to capitalise on the anger against New Delhi for its actions since August 5, 2019, many political observers believe Rashid resonates with the deep-seated humiliation felt by ordinary Kashmiris who find his return as a revival of resilient politics, filling a void left by Delhi that even the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) could not address. This shift could significantly affect the political landscape by drawing votes away from established regional parties and altering expected election outcomes.

Even though Rashid won the Lok Sabha election by outmanoeuvring heavyweights like former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and People’s Conference chief Sajad Lone with a margin of over 4 lakh votes, his party, the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), appeared to lose momentum after the victory.

Several AIP leaders resigned after the party chose to field new candidates in several Assembly segments instead of loyalists. However, Rashid’s bail has somewhat revived his party’s fortunes, although it has also brought with it accusations of being a “proxy”. Since his release, Omar Abdullah, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) president Mehbooba Mufti, and Sajad Lone have labelled Rashid as yet another addition to the BJP’s list of proxies in Kashmir.

“PDP’s youth leader Waheed [Parra] was given bail in a UAPA case by the same court, Farooq Abdullah was given a clean chit in a scam case by the court, and Lone’s brother is with Hurriyat while he himself is with BJP,” AIP leader and Rashid’s brother Sheikh Khursheed told Frontline. “But, these parties have an issue with Rashid’s bail. This shows AIP and Rashid have both unnerved them.”

The allegations against Rashid may strike a chord with many Kashmiris, especially since New Delhi has been attempting to forge different alliances with new political fronts that have largely followed its directives regarding the region’s altered political landscape.

“Since 1953, New Delhi has been trying to cut down the hegemony of regional parties in the valley,” said a political observer, wishing not to be named. “Rashid’s unleashing on the scene is all about devouring the cadre supremacy of a particular party. He may not be directly involved but Rashid’s presence is Delhi’s gain.”

Unconventional approach

Ironically, beyond the allegations, Rashid’s engagement in non-traditional politics and his confrontational style make him more formidable than other political leaders in the race. The same unconventional approach could disrupt many political equations in the Assembly election.

As a two-time legislator from the Langate Assembly seat, Rashid has a history of boldly confronting Delhi and State governments on the issue of Kashmir. While many might have changed during five years of imprisonment, Rashid stands out as an exception.

“After his release, he immediately returned to being the same defiant politician willing to confront Delhi,” the observer noted. “After 2019, no other political leader has maintained such a firm stance against Delhi. In that context, Rashid’s politics now reflects resilience against Central rule in Kashmir. This role used to belong to separatists, who had greater acceptance among the public than mainstream parties. Rashid has now consistently stepped into that space, effectively making the narrative of him being a proxy irrelevant.”

Rashid’s party, AIP, has fielded 34 candidates across Jammu and Kashmir, contesting 33 seats in the Kashmir Valley and only one in the Jammu region. Recently, the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and AIP also stitched an alliance for the upcoming election.

“The JeI and AIP alliance looks natural in a way—given the way they have been treated by the Centre since 2019,” said a senior journalist based in Kashmir. “While that may be a guiding commonality between the two, the alliance also reveals the lack of organisational capacity of the AIP, as it is still a new party.”

The critics, the journalist continued, might see it as some kind of an understanding between the two facilitated by external players. “But the JeI and AIP alliance fits the victim and sympathy narrative that actually helped Rashid win a Lok Sabha seat while being in jail,” he added.

Capitalising on resentment

What is new about Rashid’s resurgence is that established regional parties have recognised that his presence in the political arena has attracted a new constituency of voters, which they find disconcerting. This large group is made of Kashmiris who have boycotted elections for nearly three decades as a way to express their resentment against India.

“Since the eruption of militancy, a huge section of voters would always boycott elections. As a result, we used to have a substantial expectation about the turnout,” the senior journalist, who has reported on Assembly elections in Kashmir in the past, told Frontline. “With militancy at its lowest and people finding no outlet to their anger other than casting vote, the voting percentage in Kashmir might break the record of past elections—like we saw in the Lok Sabha election.”

Therefore, if, let us say 40 per cent of people used to vote earlier, he continued, it would be divided among different political players in the fray and the person who gets the most votes will be the winner. “With Rashid’s entry, as we saw in the Lok Sabha election also, a huge chunk of the ‘boycott constituency’ might get attracted to polling booths,” he added. “In that sense, if we have 70 per cent voting this election, we will be having a new constituency of voters who will be casting votes to only one contestant—Engineer Rashid.”

The journalist added: “In simple words, the traditional vote will be divided among traditional mainstream players while the boycott vote might go into the single kitty of Rashid. That’s why Rashid may not become a king himself, but he will certainly have a role in deciding who the king will be.”

Failure of PAGD

A year after the BJP-led Union government abrogated Jammu and Kashmir’s special status on August 5, 2019, and detained Kashmiri politicians, including three former Chief Ministers, these leaders came out of captivity and established the PAGD—a coalition of seven parties including the NC and the PDP.

However, the alliance failed, leaving Kashmiris puzzled and disillusioned. “The PAGD was, in a real sense, a promise of the NC and the PDP to the people that they will wage an honourable battle against Delhi to regain Kashmir’s lost status,” said the political observer mentioned earlier. “Ultimately, people could see through their bluff and realised that both have left them high and dry.”

The lack of a symbolic stance from established regional parties like the NC and PDP is seen as an advantage for Rashid, who is capitalising on the sentiments of ordinary Kashmiris. For many, it seems that the Valley-based political parties have accepted the new reality of Kashmir. In fact, during his first Facebook Live after his release, Rashid criticised the top leadership of the NC and the PDP for their previous alliances with the BJP.

A few days later, during a press conference, Rashid targeted the NC and the PDP again, stating that Article 370 could not be restored by making statements from the comfort of homes. “When Amit Shah said no one can give back the statehood to Jammu and Kashmir except the BJP government, they [the NC and the PDP] did not even dare to say we will fight for it.”

“Both the NC and PDP have played a politics of compromise after 2019,” another political analyst based in Kashmir told Frontline. “People have come to understand that a change is needed, and Rashid aligns better with their interest.”

Even though the NC is still seen as one of the favourites due to its large cadre base, its former PAGD partner, PDP, is facing a crisis that could lead to further erosion of its already dwindling support.

“The PDP had always lived by the rhetoric of being a substitute to the National Conference,” Kashmir-based political scientist Noor Ahmad Baba told Frontline. “It failed because Rashid represents a more ethnic periphery in the politics and underlines the victimhood of Kashmiris more than the PDP.”

A PDP leader currently contesting the Assembly election told Frontline that rather than the NC, Rashid poses a “much bigger threat to our existence”. “People still remember what our government did in 2016… it was our failure,” said the PDP leader, wishing anonymity. “As we’re yet to apologise to the people for what happened, it’s hard for them to trust us.”

Will sympathy translate into votes?

Even though Rashid achieved what once seemed like a distant dream for his small party in the Lok Sabha election, political analysts like Baba believe that the support he garnered during that campaign has faded. “A parliamentary constituency hides a number of things,” Baba told Frontline. “Winning a parliamentary election doesn’t guarantee success in all segments of the Assembly [election].”

According to Baba, people have different kinds of approaches to two elections. “One is from the nationalistic point of view while people have more stakes in the Assembly election,” he explained. “They would see it from the point of view of governance and who is likely going to form the government.”

Also Read | Statehood not a gift for BJP or government to give: Omar Abdullah

Baba believes that Rashid, as a victim with a certain kind of political past, invoked a certain degree of sentiment and sensitivity among people. “But, that sentiment won’t necessarily translate into support for his party in this election,” he said, noting that Rashid’s party is unlikely to secure as much backing as he received in the parliamentary election.

“The kind of emotional appeal he had as a victim, as a prisoner, and as a representative of many Kashmiris who have suffered has all faded since his release,” Baba added. “He cannot dislodge an already existing party like NC.”

However, the first observer mentioned earlier believes that Rashid has done his homework well. “He hasn’t become embittered; instead, he has sharpened his stand and identified the loopholes in the existing parties, capitalising on them,” the observer said. “Even though people realise that Rashid’s claims, like those of other leaders, are also a facade, they connect well enough to make them a cheerleader for a while.”

He added: “Whether this cheering will sustain or not, only time will tell.”

Zaid Bin Shabir is a journalist based in Srinagar.

It has been a year of unusually intense political activity in Jammu and Kashmir. The erstwhile State, now a Union Territory, saw record turnout in the Lok Sabha election and is now holding its first Assembly election in ten years. In an interview with Frontline in Srinagar, Omar Abdullah, vice president of the National Conference, former Chief Minister, and a candidate himself (from Ganderbal and Budgam Assembly constituencies) speaks about the revocation of Article 370, the restoration of statehood, the BJP’s electoral tactics in the region, and more. Excerpts:

Also Read | Kashmir braces for its first Assembly election in a decade with hope and scepticism  

But if you have your constituents with you, then it shouldn’t be a problem whether there are vote cutters and vote dividers.

I’m sure that when push comes to shove, ultimately none of this will work. But that doesn’t mean that we go silent about it now because people need to realise what is happening. One of the dangers we face as a result of a fractured mandate is the possibility that the Indian government will just continue to extend Governor’s rule.

Central rule will be maintained indefinitely and they’ll leave the Assembly in suspended animation. One of the risks that we face is the BJP forming a government. But the second risk we face is that the BJP will then impress upon the Union government to leave the Assembly suspended. All this would have been for nothing. So, the people of J&K need to realise that this election, perhaps more than the previous ones, is important. So, that they vote carefully while considering the fallout of their vote.

Concerning fractured mandates, what are the options if you are in a scenario where you have the most number of seats but you are not in a position to form a government?

At the moment we are concerned with offering the people with the best route to an elected government with the understanding that we have with the Congress. Therefore, it would be highly premature to contemplate the possibility that this alliance will not come to part with its own majority.

I just want to push this a bit further.

No, I know you’d want to but my answer won’t change. We are not looking at that possibility.

What is the main issue in this election?

 I don’t think there is any one main issue. There is the overwhelming issue of what was done to J&K on August 2019. There is the whole sort of humiliation that was heaped on us with the downgrading to a Union Territory status. But then, coupled with this, there are the day-to-day governance issues on which the administration, over the last 5-6 years, has failed miserably. So whether it is services like electricity, health, education, clean drinking water, unemployment, which has only grown worse, or the debt. Today, J&K’s GDP to debt ratio is 49 per cent. We are, along with Punjab, the most debt-ridden territory in this country and a lot of that has to do with this double-engine, so-called government that we’ve had in J&K for the past 10 years.

“One of the things that holds us back is violence in Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP has been responsible for this through its failures in promoting and allowing militancy to regroup in the Jammu region.”

So, if you form the government, what would your first order of business be?

Well, of course, there is the legislative business, which I believe any incoming administration will have to initially battle, that includes restoration of statehood. Enough commitments have been made publicly, privately, in Parliament, and in the Supreme Court, about statehood being restored to J&K. So, I think the first thing any government should do is to demand the restoration of that, failing which, they should explore legal options.

Before this election, you said this Chief Minister would have no powers and that you don’t see yourself waiting outside his office for files to be cleared. So if you form the government and you are the chief ministerial face of this campaign…

Again, this is all very premature because none of these things are a factor until the results are out.

How do you foresee the equation between the Chief Minister and the elected government?

Obviously, any elected Chief Minister in the current scenario will find the going difficult. Even with States like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, etc., opposition-ruled governments have found it very difficult to get their work done thanks to the BJP using the Raj Bhavan to scuttle their agenda. More often than not they end up approaching the Supreme Court to have pressure put on Raj Bhavan to make sure proposals are cleared.

With a Union Territory, things are going to be worse. That said, an elected government is still able to push back. The Governor will not have free rein as he has had for the last 5 or 6 years. There will be a certain amount of checks and balances that will automatically get built into the system which will come into play. But as I said, most importantly, the elected government, the incoming Chief Minister will have to fight for the restoration of statehood. And then, of course, the scenario changes.

National Conference supporters hold a rally in support of Reyaz Bedar from Pattan assembly constituency for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election at Pattan in Baramulla on Sept. 15, 2024.
| Photo Credit:
ANI

Home Minister Amit Shah said, in a statement, that statehood has to be given by the government at the Centre.

It is not a gift to be bestowed upon us. They had no business taking it away from us in the first instance. And what are they trying to suggest? That the people of J&K have to beg, bow, and scrape before them before we get it. Let’s not forget that this election is hardly something they willingly conducted in J&K. It has been forced on them as a result of the observations of the Supreme Court, while the Article 370 issue was being adjudicated. Left to the Central government, these elections would not have been happening. This is why I previously mentioned that we now have Supreme Court’s records which state that the government committed itself to the restoration of statehood. So if they don’t do it willingly, we’ll ask the Supreme Court to remind them of their promise.

If the intention is to keep the BJP out, why is it that the Gupkar Alliance fell apart?

Well, it was never an electoral alliance, but the PDP needs to answer for the fact that they never supported the alliance in the parliamentary election. They put their own interest ahead of that of the people of J&K. When they were told, in no uncertain terms, it looked like five parliament seats, of which the National Conference already held three, the possibility of a seat-sharing arrangement for the Lok Sabha election was highly unlikely. But should the PDP work to support alliance candidates, we would have no hesitation in opening a dialogue with them for seat sharing in the Assembly election. But clearly that was something that was unacceptable to the PDP.

Their campaign is singularly focussed on the National Conference. It’s almost as if the BJP doesn’t exist. I guess in some ways they’re embarrassed by the fact that they were the ones who were responsible for bringing the BJP into the fold. Look, we always knew that the BJP was going to be the villains in J&K. The PDP didn’t need to bring them in and show them where all the treasure lay. But that’s what they did. They brought the BJP in and showed them the route to dismembering J&K. And that’s what the BJP did.

But the NC also allied with the BJP once…

Well, if you can’t see the difference between that NDA and this BJP, then there’s nothing in my answer that will convince you. If you can’t see the difference between [former Prime Minister Atal Bihari] Vajpayee sahib’ssort of dealings with J&K and Prime Minister Modi’s, then again nothing I say will convince you. Prime Minister Vajpayee’s approach to contentious issues like [Article] 370, like dialogue with Pakistan, like how to handle an internal dialogue, opening up the routes like the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road. These are all part of the record. And, I mean, compare that to how this current government and its muscular approach has been used to deal with Jammu and Kashmir.

Would a government headed by you push for peace with Pakistan? Would that be one of the agendas?

So clearly normalising relations with Pakistan is not sort of the domain of an elected State government. That said, we can at least, any elected State government should try and create conditions that are conducive for such a dialogue. One of the things that holds us back is violence in J&K. The BJP has been responsible for this through its failures in promoting and allowing militancy to regroup in the Jammu region. The BJP has said that if the Congress is elected, militancy will start again, yatris will be targeted, so on and so forth. In reality, yatriswere targeted while the BJP and the PDP were allies. Militancy has regrouped and restarted in Jammu during their regime. We were the ones who had actually cleared Jammu of militancy. It was their failures that have led to this situation. So instead of blaming or accusing us of being the ones who will restart militancy, they need to explain why militancy started again during their regime.

Also Read | Jammu and Kashmir Lieutenant Governor gets more power, and it doesn’t bode well for democracy

How do you see the Jammu region’s response to the BJP and what it has done in removing Article 370?

I don’t think we can quantify that response right now because we have no results on which to base it. Let the election results come and then we’ll understand. There is certainly a lot of anger in large sections of the Jammu population, whether it’s to do with the Darbar move and what that has meant for the status of Jammu, whether it has meant, it has been about the system of recruitment into the army, the Agniveer system, whether it has been about the sort of regrouping of militancy, but to what extent Jammu will move away from voting on religious lines and vote to express this anger and this unhappiness, we’ll wait and see.

Regarding [Article] 370, there was this fear that there would be a demographic change and that people would come purchase land and take our jobs. Have those fears come true?

Well, it is never going to be an overnight thing. It is always going to be a creeping effect and you have started to see that, and again, more in parts of Jammu than here but it’s not sort of gone totally unnoticed even in the way in which assets here are now being sort of mortgaged off or sold or handed out to people who don’t belong to J&K. Again, it is there for you to see how the Centaur Hotel in Srinagar has been given to people who don’t belong to J&K, how this government is trying to part with the club and other tourist assets in Pahalgam. There are similar instances and stories Jammu side. I mean, as I said, it’s more a sort of creeping effect rather than a sudden overnight change.

So would the State government be able to reverse those decisions?

Certainly. All States have the right to frame their own domicile laws and our domicile laws in J&K today are amongst the weakest. We only have to look at States like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and others to see their domicile laws and compare them to ours. Or even for that matter, look, Ladakh and J&K were born out of the same sort of decision: the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act. Look at the laws that have been implemented in Ladakh in terms of domicile, land and purchase and other things. And then look at J&K. So there is certainly scope for building in further protections.

Would you also push for reunification of Ladakh and J&K?

People of Kargil were not happy with what was done but Leh was more celebratory. Today, that euphoria, that sense of celebration has all but disappeared. Whether that territory would want to come back to J&K is something that one can only sort of figure out after sort of talking to the people there. But at least we can continue to highlight the government’s failures to address their concerns.

One last question. Your sons are campaigning in this election and they were as well in the looks of our election. Is that the new generation of the NC’s leadership?

No. They are just helping out in a small way, as families do. You have, of course, the biggest example in the Engineer Rashid campaign, where his sons helped out. More recently, there is Ghulam Nabi Azad’s campaign, where I recently saw a video of his daughter campaigning. Families help out in campaigns, as families help out in most sorts of work, but nothing beyond that. Left to me, I’d be more than happy for this campaign to end and they can go back to building their law practice, which I think is far more important than anything else.

Nirupama Subramanian is an independent journalist who has worked earlier at The Hindu and at The Indian Express.