Jharkhand is heading for a polarised Assembly election, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) raising the issue of Bangladeshi infiltration and vowing to implement the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), and the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) banking on its tribal leadership and its demand for a separate code for the Sarna tribal religion to gain victory.

Releasing the BJP’s manifesto on November 3 in Ranchi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah promised to “identify and deport” every infiltrator and take back the “land they usurped” from the tribal people. Shah also said that the tribal communities would be kept out of the ambit of the UCC, and announced that it would be implemented adopting the Uttarakhand model.

On this part, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at an election rally in Chaibasa in Kolhan division on November 4, “They are snatching your bread, they are taking away your daughters and they are also usurping your land (ye aapki roti cheen rahe hain, aapki beti bhi chcheeni rahe hain aur ye aapki maati ko bhi hadap rahe hain). It drew a sharp reaction from the Congress and the Trinamool Congress, who called it a new low after Modi’s remarks in Rajasthan and Gujarat during the Lok Sabha election about the Opposition “stealing away the Mangalsutra” and “stealing away buffaloes” from the people.

Also Read | Back as Chief Minister, Hemant Soren aims to ride sympathy wave in Jharkhand Assembly election

This was a scale-up of the BJP’s ongoing campaign in the Santhal Pargana region, which claimed that Muslims from Bangladesh were marrying tribal women and changing the demography.

Shah attributed the alleged decline in the tribal population in Jharkhand to this reason and promised to put an end to it as the BJP government did in Assam, where the National Register of Citizens (NRC) was implemented in 2018-2019.

In both Assam and Uttarakhand, the BJP has drawn flak for undermining the Muslim population but has retained power in a polarised atmosphere.

Rattled at the BJP’s attempt to create a rupture in the tribal-Muslim alliance assiduously built by the INDIA coalition in the State, Chief Minister Hemant Soren asserted that neither the UCC nor the NRC will be allowed in Jharkhand. He also said that his government would rely solely on the Chota Nagpur Tenancy Act (CNT) and the Santhal Pargana Act (SPT), the laws in force in the State, to protect the land ownership rights of the tribal people.

The JMM also upped the ante by promising to include the Sarna tribal religion (centred around the worship of nature) in the national census and implement a Sarna Code to govern tribal people. Four years ago, in 2020, the Jharkhand Assembly passed a resolution in its favour. Months ago when the Lok Sabha election was held, the BJP was cornered over the issue of the Sarna Code and lost all five seats reserved for the tribal communities.

With or without an alliance

In the NDA, while the BJP is contesting the majority of seats—68 out of 81—the lead alliance partner in the INDIA bloc, the JMM, is contesting only 43 seats. The Congress is contesting 30 Assembly seats as a part of the alliance and there are apprehensions that it might be the weak link, like in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh and 2020 Bihar Assembly elections.

While both the BJP and the JMM have a strong cadre base in the State, the former is also aided by the RSS. The other parties are mostly oriented around their leaders in the respective regions. But the Congress is confident of a good show. Party leader Alok Dubey said there is renewed confidence that the INDIA bloc will form the government once again.

After a strategy meeting of the party, Dubey said, “We took stock of our election preparations and various management activities for the final stretch of the campaign. We discussed ways to put our strategy into motion, from the Central and State level all the way to each booth. Our alliance is mounting a formidable campaign and we are in a strong position to form the government once again and continue the welfare and growth of Jharkhand for another five-year term.” However, Jharkhand has never re-elected an incumbent government in the past 24 years since the State was carved out from Bihar in 2000.

Of the five divisions—Kolhan, Santhal Pargana, North Chota Nagpur, South Chota Nagpur and Palamu—BJP was ahead in 2019 in only two—North Chota Nagpur and Palamu. Out of 25 seats in North Chota Nagpur, the BJP alone had won 10. It also won five out of nine assembly seats in Palamu division. Of the 14 seats in Kolhan, the BJP won none while it secured only 4 out of 18 seats in Santhal Pargana.

Out of the 15 Assembly seats in South Chota Nagpur, 11 are reserved for tribal candidates. Two of the 28 tribal reserved seats that the BJP won in 2019 were from this region. In total, the BJP got five seats in South Chota Nagpur and JMM-Congress eight. One was won by the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) and one by the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) [JVM(P)].

While in Kolhan the BJP is banking on three former tribal Chief Ministers—Champai Soren, Arjun Munda and Madhu Koda—for its revival, it hopes that polarisation will work in Santhal Pargana and that the alliance with AJSU in both divisions of Chota Nagpur. Playing safe, the BJP has fielded current MLAs and former MPs in the region.

As the BJP made a desperate bid to score over the JMM in tribal politics, one was witness to the spectacle of the tribal politician Mandal Murmu—one of the proposers of Hemant Soren’s nomination and a descendant of Sido-Kanhu (Sido Murmu and Kanhu Murmu) who led the 1855 iconic Santhal protest against the British and the zamindari system—joining the BJP on November 4.

Hemant Soren is contesting from Barhait in the Santhal Pargana region, where the JMM is in a relatively strong position. Despite the BJP’s focus on issues like Bangladeshi infiltrators and with Sita Soren, the Chief Minister’s sister-in-law, leaving the JMM and joining the saffron party in March (she is now contesting from the Jamtara seat), the JMM remains resilient.

Kolhan will be crucial

The 14 Assembly seats in the Kolhan region could decide the winner in the election. The BJP, which scored a duck there in the 2019 election, has now deployed all its machinery to change the outcome. It has fielded former Chief Minister Arjun Munda’s wife Meera Munda from Potka in East Singhbhum distirict, former JMM leader and former Chief Minister Champai Soren from Saraikela, and former Chief Minister Madhu Koda’s wife Gita Koda from Jagannathpur in West Singhbhum. All these candidates are from tribal communities. Champai Soren, who left the JMM and joined the BJP in August, is a prize catch for the party. He is called ‘Kolhan Tiger’ and the JMM is trying to prove hard that the tiger is toothless.

Other key seats in Kolhan are East Jamshedpur from where the BJP has fielded Purnima Sahu, the daughter in-law of former Chief Minister Raghubar Das, who was the only Jharkhand Chief Minister to have completed a full five-year term (2014 and 2019). Sahu is contesting against former Jharkhand Congress chief Ajoy Kumar, who as an IPS officer had served as Jamshedpur SP in the past.

The BJP lost the 2019 Assembly election in Jharkhand under the leadership of Das, an OBC candidate. Das himself lost to party rebel Saryu Rai, known once as the “Chanakya” of Jharkhand politics and who is now back in the NDA as the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] candidate from Jamshedpur West.

Rai earlier contested from this seat for the BJP but, after his revolt, he shifted to Jamshedpur East in 2019 and defeated sitting Chief Minister Das.

While the JMM, which had won 11 of the 14 seats in Kolhan in the last Assembly election, has fielded 9 of its sitting MLAs, the BJP has changed candidates in 10 seats. That reveals the state of mind of both the parties in the region.

Some of the Kolhan battles are interesting. Champai Soren had won the Saraikela seat for the JMM in 2019 against the BJP’s Ganesh Mahali. With Champai joining the BJP, the JMM has inducted Mahali and fielded him against the former Chief Minister from the seat.

Feedback from the ground suggests that while it could be smooth sailing for Champai Soren in Saraikela, his son Babulal Soren might find the going tough in Ghatshila. Addressing a rally in Ghatshila on November 5, Hemant Soren’s wife and candidate from Gandey Kalpana Soren cautioned against the BJP’s “money power” but asserted that only the bow-and-arrow symbol of the JMM would work there. JMM Minister Ramdas Soren is pitted against the newbie.

Gita Koda, who is contesting from Jagannathpur, and Meera Munda, the wife of former Chief Minister Arjun Munda, who is being fielded from Potka, are also strong candidates of the BJP.

Both Chief Minister Hemant Soren from Barhait in Santhal Pargana and Kalpana Soren in Gandey of North Chota Nagpur are well placed on the other side. The Gandey seat had fallen vacant after the resignation of Sarfaraz Ahmad this year and was won by Kalpana Soren in a byelection.

Hemant Soren’s brother Basant Soren’s advantage in the Dumka Assembly seat is that it has traditionally been a JMM seat. The seat has been represented by Hemant Soren umpteen times, including in 2019 when he won both the Dumka and Barhait seats. After he chose to resign from Dumka, Basant Soren won the seat in a byelection in 2020. The BJP’s Lois Marandi, who lost the seat to the JMM both times, has now joined the JMM.

Three-term MLA Sita Soren, the eldest daughter-in-law of Shibu Soren, who lost the Lok Sabha election from Dumka on a BJP ticket after joining the party in March, is also breathing easy in the Jamtara seat. Chances of a win for Purnima Das will depend a lot on the role played by JD(U) leader Saryu Rai.

BJP state president Babulal Marandi, contesting from Dhanwar, might find the going much easier in his traditional seat as both the JMM and the Communist Party of India-Marxist-Leninist (CPI-ML) have opted for a friendly contest fielding separate candidates there. In the BJP stronghold of Ranchi, the State capital, the JMM is making a last-ditch attempt to win by fielding its Rajya Sabha MP Mahua Majhi against six-term MLA C.P. Singh. In the last Assembly election, Singh defeated Majhi by a margin of a little over 5,000 votes. The BJP has traditionally been strong in the urban seats in Jharkhand.

Former Union Minister Rameshwar Oraon is contesting from Lohardaga on a Congress ticket. He had defeated the BJP’s Sukhdev Bhagat in the 2019 Assembly election. The number of votes he got in this tribal seat was more than the combined votes of the BJP and AJSU, which fought separately.

In Bokaro, also called the Steel City, two-term sitting BJP MLA Biranchi Narayan (BJP) will once again face Sweta Singh (Congress). Singh is the daughter-in-law of former BJP veteran Samresh Singh, who is said to have given the lotus symbol to the BJP.

In the coal belt of Dhanbad, the BJP MLA for the last two terms, Raj Sinha, will face Ajay Dubey of the Congress, who had lost the 2014 Lok Sabha election from the seat to the BJP’s P. N. Singh.

It’s all relative

But the more interesting battle is in the coal belt in Jharia where the warring factions of Singh Mansion (residence of the family of former MLA and coal mafia leader late Suryadeo Singh) of Dhanbad, which used to call the shots, are battling it out.

Here the contest is between the sitting MLA from the Congress Purnima Neeraj Singh—wife of former deputy mayor of Dhanbad late Neeraj Singh—and BJP’s Ragini Singh, wife of former BJP MLA Sanjeev Singh. Neeraj was murdered in 2017 and Sanjeev Singh, his cousin, was arrested in the case. The clash between the two sisters-in-law also happened in 2019. Purnima Singh had then won against Ragini Singh. Clearly, the sympathy factor worked for Purnima Singh in the 2019 Assembly election after her husband’s killing, as Sanjeev Singh, who had won the seat in 2014, was arrested.

Alliance is key to power in Jharkhand. In 2014 when the JMM and the Congress fought separately, they could win only 25 seats but after forming the alliance in 2019, their tally rose to 47. The BJP learnt it the hard way in 2019 when it did not ally with the AJSU and could win only 25 seats—a substantial decline from the 42 it had bagged in alliance with that party in 2014.

This time, both sides have strong alliances. While the BJP-AJSU has added JD(U) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) to its grouping, the JMM-Congress also has the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Left parties in the INDIA bloc. With Babulal Marandi back in the BJP as its State chief, his party JVM(P)’s six per cent vote share may also add to the NDA’s numbers.

The new kid on the block

The emergence of the Jairam Mahato-led Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha surprised many people with its vote share in a number of Lok Sabha seats in the last general election. Mahato belongs to the same Kudmi-Kurmi caste that is the support base of the AJSU. His politics of “locals versus outsiders”, a pale remnant of the “diku (outsider) versus native” politics during the Jharkhand movement, could disrupt the existing course and discourse of political alignments in the State.

Mahato himself had secured 3.47 lakh votes when he contested from the Giridih Lok Sabha seat. This time, he is contesting from the Dumri Assembly seat and many people are sure that he will win.

The Kurmis, accounting for nearly 14 per cent of the votes, can tilt the balance in over 30 of the 81 Assembly seats in Jharkhand, particularly in the districts of Ranchi, Dhanbad, Hazaribagh, Jamshedpur and Giridih.

Also Read | Jharkhand: Defeat in all Lok Sabha seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes could hurt BJP in Assembly elections

Tribal people account for 26.21 per cent of Jharkhand’s population and have 28 seats reserved for them. The JMM had won 19 of them, the Congress 6, the BJP 2 and Marandi’s JVM(P) 1. Despite Marandi now being with the BJP, the party could not win even a single of the five Lok Sabha seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. And Hemant Soren is now out of prison.

Women voters outnumber men in 32 Assembly constituencies. Out of these 32, 26 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes, which means only 2 other seats reserved for STs have more male voters. Men migrate to other cities for work, especially from the tribal and Dalit segments; hence women’s votes are important. That possibly explains why the BJP has fielded more women this time, though most of them are from political families.

The BJP has pitched the Gogo Didi Yojana to counter the JMM-led alliance government’s Maiyan Samman Yojana to attract female voters. The BJP has promised in its manifesto that it would transfer Rs 2,100 per month to the bank accounts of women, under the scheme, after forming the government.

Under the Maiyan Samman Yojana, Rs 1,000 per month is credited to the accounts of over 50 lakh women in the State. Chief minister Hemant Soren said that the amount would be increased to Rs 2,500 every month from December, if his party is voted to power again.

Polarisation and promises apart, people in the tribal state are looking for a real change in their fortune. Will the politicians live up to the expectations? 

Reacting to INDIA bloc leaders’ hate speech accusations, Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma clarified that “talking about Hindus doesn’t mean targeting Muslims” and questioned why opposition leaders are hurt when he speaks “against the infiltrators.”

The controversy erupted when INDIA bloc leaders raised objections against Assam CM Himanta Sarma’s speech in Sarath, Jharkhand on November 1.

Accusing Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma of making “inflammatory and divisive” speeches during an election rally in Jharkhand, INDIA bloc leaders on Saturday sought strict action from the Election Commission of India (ECI) against the BJP leader.

Assam CEO Himanta Biswa Sarma’s “hate speech” is an “example of the divisive politics” as he seeks to “polarise the electorate and consolidate power for his agenda,” INDIA bloc leaders said in a letter to the CEO, according to ANI.

The leaders also demanded strict action against BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma’s “inflammatory and divisive speeches” at an election rally in Jharkhand.

What did Himanta Biswa say in Jharkhand?

During his speech on November 1 in Sarath, the BJP leader stated, “Those people will vote in one place, but our Hindus will vote half here and half there.” He also remarked, “This government invites infiltrators because a special community will vote for them,” reported ANI.

“His use of extremely divisive and hateful words in the speech targeting the Muslim minorities by saying words like “Woh log ek hi jageh par vote daalte hain lekin humaara Hindu aadha vote idhar daalega aadha udhar” and “ye sarkar ghuspaithiya ko bulaata hai Kyuki vishesh samudaay unko vote deta hai” are clear examples of the venomous language being used by him to create a civil warlike situation and incite violence in the ensuing assembly elections,” ANI quoted INDIA bloc’s letter to EC.

Himanta Biswa Sarma’s response to INDIA bloc complaint

Reacting to the INDIA bloc’s complaint, Himanta Biswa Sarma dismissed the allegations and mentioned that he didn’t even utter the word Muslim in his speech.

“Why complain against me? What am I saying? Why they are hurt when I am speaking against the infiltrators? Where it is written, in which law, that it is wrong to speak against infiltrators?… Talking about Hindus doesn’t mean targeting Muslims. I don’t even utter the word – Muslim. India is a Hindu civilization and to talk about protecting them is a positive thing,” ANI quoted Himanta Sarma as saying.