The Group of Seven (G7) defence ministers are meeting in Italy against a backdrop of brewing tensions in the Middle East and the drawn-out conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The one-day gathering on Saturday marks the group’s first ministerial meeting dedicated to defence, and is being held in Naples, the southern Italian city that is also home to a NATO base.

In his address, Italian Minister of Defence Guido Crosetto said the global security framework is growing increasingly precarious due to competing world visions.

“The brutal Russian aggressions in Ukraine and the indeed critical situation in Middle East, combined with the profound instability of sub-Saharan Africa and the increasing tension in the Indo-Pacific region, highlight a deteriorated security framework,” Crosetto said in his opening speech.

“Ample space” would be given to discussing the escalating Middle East conflict during the one-day summit, Crosetto had said a day earlier in Brussels.

There is also deep concern over China’s military activities around Taiwan and heightened tensions along the border of North and South Korea.

Warning that forecasts for the near future “cannot be positive”, Crosetto said tensions were fuelled by “a common driver: the confrontation between two different, perhaps incompatible, visions of the world”.

On the one side are the countries and organisations that believe in a world order based on international law, said Crosetto, a prominent member of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy party.

“On the other side, [there are] those who systematically disrespect democracy to pursue their objectives, including by a deliberate use of military force.”

On Ukraine, the G7 ministers will contemplate Kyiv entering a third winter at war, battlefield losses in the east – and the prospect of reduced US military support should Donald Trump be elected to the White House next month.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, under mounting pressure from Western allies to forge a winning strategy against Russia, on Thursday presented what he called a “victory plan” to the European Union and NATO.

Under discussion will also likely be reports, based on South Korean intelligence, that North Korea is deploying large numbers of troops to support Moscow’s war against Ukraine. NATO was not yet able to confirm that intelligence, its Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Friday.

His surprise death will shake the region’s destiny again, leaving Hamas leaderless, Gaza without any semblance of governance and Israel able to claim that a key war aim has been met at last and at a huge cost in lives. All this raises the previously slim possibility of a ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza. And if that takes place there is a narrow pathway to a de-escalation across the region even as a war rages in Lebanon and the prospect of Israeli retaliation against Iranian missile strikes looms large.

Read all our coverage of the war in the Middle East

Mr Sinwar, aged 61, spent years planning the attack on October 7th 2023 in which thousands of Hamas fighters caught Israel by surprise, bursting through the Gaza border and killing nearly 1,200 and taking back 250 hostages. Since then he had been in hiding, lurking underground in a labyrinth of tunnels, communicating with his minions through hand-written notes and runners, and eschewing mobile-phones which could be tracked. Holed up in the filth and darkness for much of the past year he appeared to be just as in control of events as world leaders in their plush offices; inspecting the Israeli hostages; negotiating through proxies with the CIA; and directing military attacks.

He was top of the hit-list for the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) as its armoured divisions tore up the coastal strip and its aircraft pounded it. In the end it wasn’t massive force or high-tech intelligence that caught him, but a chance encounter. According to initial reports he was with two other men at night near Rafah. Spotted by an IDF foot patrol which was accompanied by tanks he was killed by the ensuing fire. The patrol had not been searching for him and his body was only identified the day after when a drone surveyed the half-ruined building where he had been sheltering.

Mr Sinwar believed that his attack on Israel would mark the beginning of the end of the Jewish state. A Hamas enforcer since the movement was founded in the 1980s, he spent 23 years in an Israeli prison, after being sentenced for murdering four Palestinians accused of collaborating with Israel. Released in a prisoner exchange in 2011, he began planning what would become the October 7th attack when he returned to Gaza, according to Israeli intelligence. Documents captured by Israel suggest that he engaged with Hizbullah, another Iran-backed militia, based in Lebanon, in the hope of co-ordinating a multiple-front attack on Israel. But while Hamas achieved its immediate objective on October 7th, overwhelming IDF bases on Gaza’s borders and massacring Israelis, Hizbullah made do with firing short-range rockets. The IDF put reinforcements on the Lebanon border and evacuated civilians near it. Then it invaded Gaza.

There are two views of Mr Sinwar’s legacy within Israeli intelligence. Some believe he made a fatal mistake, thinking that the IDF would be too risk-averse to send its soldiers into Gaza city. “Sinwar thought he knew Israeli society and that it had gone soft,” says one analyst. Others think he was motivated by fanaticism. “Sinwar was fully prepared to sacrifice Gaza and its people,” says a senior IDF officer who has spent years studying the Sinwar file. Either way the consequences of his attack have been no triumph even by his brutal standards. Israel has reduced Hamas’s military wing to a husk, although in the process laid waste to Gaza, killed over 40,000 people and induced global outrage. The IDF has decapitated Hizbullah’s leadership too. And while Iran has launched missile attacks at Israel, most recently on October 1st, Israel has re-established military deterrence by striking at Iranian proxies across the region and, possibly, by retaliating directly against Iran with air strikes in the coming days.

Three giant questions now loom. One is what happens to Hamas. It has a leadership vacuum that could see its remaining grip on Gaza slip away. Israel has now eliminated the troika of hardliners that had control of the organisation, Mr Sinwar, Muhammad Deif and Marwan Issa, along with at least half of the movement’s senior leadership in Gaza. In addition to being the boss in Gaza since 2017, Mr Sinwar was the overall leader of the movement for the past three months, replacing Ismail Haniyeh, head of its political bureau who was assassinated by Israel in Tehran on July 31st.

Hamas still has thousands of fighters in Gaza, who are now in what the IDF calls “guerilla mode,” having lost most of their commanders. Mr Sinwar’s brother and right-hand man is mentioned as potential interim commander in Gaza, but is more of a local strongman, without leadership heft beyond Gaza. Some Israeli analysts anticipate a vacuum in which some Gazans oppose Hamas and local leaders come to the fore. Hamas has an “outside” leadership mainly based in Qatar, Turkey and Lebanon. The surviving senior figure of this wing, former politburo chief Khaled Meshal, a rival of Mr Sinwar, may take up the reins. He is a more pragmatic figure and has been opposed to the relationship with Iran, which under Messrs Haniyeh and Sinwar intensified.

That leads to the second question: whether the conditions may now be right for a ceasefire in Gaza. What remains of Hamas may try to do a deal using the remaining 101 Israeli hostages (around half of whom are presumed dead) in order to trigger a truce which allows it to try to keep control of the strip, or its leaders to secure safe passage from it. In a statement announcing Sinwar’s death, Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, offered this prospect to those holding hostages. “Those who lay down their arms, we will allow them to leave and live.” The Israeli government has already reached out to the mediators who had been handling ceasefire talks.

Mr Sinwar had demanded a full and permanent withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza as a condition for such a deal. Mr Netanyahu, despite the entreaties of his security chiefs, adamantly opposed such a step. Now he may have an incentive to accept a deal, which the Biden administration has also been urging upon him, if Hamas is indeed prepared to lower its demands. Mr Netanyahu, whose popularity collapsed after the October 7th attacks, may fancy he can stage yet another revival in his long career of improbable comebacks. Outside of a wing of religious extremists inside the cabinet, Israel has little interest in taking responsibility for Gaza let alone rebuilding it. If an alternative governing authority of some kind takes over notional responsibility following a ceasefire, it is at least possible that the strip’s future is something other than permanent destitution and anarchy or eventual annexation.

The final question is whether the prospect of a ceasefire and release of hostages in Gaza could lead to a broader de-escalation across the region. Iran’s leaders may now want this, at least temporarily. While they and their proxies including Hizbullah and the Houthis in Yemen claim to be fighting with Israel in sympathy towards the Palestinians, they are also participants in a parallel struggle between Israel and the Iranian regime. Still, after the devastation wrought on Hamas and Hizbullah their appetite to fight this struggle may be waning. Both Mr Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah, the chief of Hizbullah, have been killed by Israel. There may be more pain to come. On October 17th America bombed Houthi sites in Yemen, while Iran is awaiting Israel’s retaliation against its missile attack: Israel is most likely to target military sites after America objected to it hitting Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities.

Does Israel believe it can safely stop fighting? Mr Sinwar succeeded in landing the most grievous blow on the Jewish state in its history. But Israel has now gone a long way to re-establishing military deterrence—albeit at huge reputational cost outside the Middle East and at enormous human cost in Gaza. The long-term war between Israel and Iran isn’t over, nor is the tragedy of the stateless Palestinians. Still it is possible to see a route out: a calibrated Israeli retaliation on Iran; a ceasefire negotiation in Gaza and a de-escalation in Lebanon. Mr Sinwar would hate to hear it but his death creates an opportunity for Israel to take an off-ramp that could, perhaps, lead to an end to this war.

© 2024, The Economist Newspaper Ltd. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under licence. The original content can be found on www.economist.com

Conflicts in the Middle East have intensified, with Israel now engaged in a multi-front war involving Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, and more recently, Iran. This escalation comes amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which began in early 2022. These crises have led to growing concerns that the situation may evolve into a broader global conflict, potentially even another World War.

Veteran investor Shankar Sharma stirred discussions on geopolitical tensions with a tweet, predicting an inevitable escalated global conflict. He foresees the formation of two opposing blocs in the world, with the US, UK, Israel, and Europe on one side and Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea on the other.

“Apna prediction kilear hai: aaj nahi to Kal, ek World War hona hi hai. US UK Israel Europe: Side 1. Iran Russia China N Korea: Side 2. India? Referee without Penalty Powers,” Sharma said in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on October 2.

The tweet hinted at India’s uncertain role, likening it to a “referee without penalty powers” – a position of neutrality but with limited influence in mitigating the global conflict.

Sharma’s prediction aligns with growing concerns about escalating global tensions, particularly surrounding the US-China relations, the Russia-Ukraine war, and Middle Eastern conflicts involving Iran and Israel. The inclusion of major nuclear powers such as Russia, China, and the US intensifies the potential consequences of such a scenario.

Middle East tensions escalated significantly on October 1, when Iran launched around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Tehran, while Iranian officials warned that any further targeting of their country would provoke an even more devastating counterstrike.

Sharma’s comment on India’s role as a “referee” reflects its current foreign policy of strategic autonomy and its ‘neutral’ position. While India maintains strong ties with the West, it has also sought to balance its relations with Russia and other non-aligned nations.

This is evident in its approach during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, where India has preserved diplomatic ties with both Russia and Ukraine. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has engaged with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, aiming to foster dialogue without explicitly taking sides.

Financial markets have been rattled by the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, with the Indian stock market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, dropping over 2% each on Thursday. The heightened volatility in the markets have added to broader concerns about the global economic outlook amid speculations over how the conflict will evolve.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

CNN
 — 

A Syrian who arrived in Germany as a refugee in 2015 has won a mayoral election in the southwestern German state of Baden-Württemberg.

Ryyan Alshebl, who left his hometown of As Suwayda in Syria eight years ago, ran as an independent in the municipality of Ostelsheim. He won 55.41% of the votes on Sunday, beating two German candidates, Marco Strauss and Mathias Fey.

Locals cheered the 29-year-old when he welcomed his win, a victory he described as “sensational,” German local broadcaster SWR reported Monday.

“Today, Ostelsheim sent an example for broad-mindedness and cosmopolitanism for the whole of Germany,” he said, according to to German public broadcaster ZDF. “That’s not something that can be taken for granted in a conservative, rural area.”

Alshebl’s first call after his victory was to his mother in Syria, who was thrilled with the news, SWR reported.

The Association of Municipalities of Baden-Württemberg said Alshebl is the first man with Syrian roots to run for and win a mayor’s office. He will start his role in June.

Ostelsheim residents have welcomed their incoming mayor. “The fairy tale has come true, and the right man has become our mayor,” Annette Keck, who lives in the village, told SWR.

Strauss, one of his opponents, congratulated Alshebl. “I wish you good luck and at the same time ask for support for Mr. Alshebl, for our shared Ostelsheim,” he said on Facebook.

The state’s Integration Minister Manne Lucha said that Alshebl’s victory showed that diversity is a natural part of Baden-Württemberg. “I would be very pleased if Ryyan Alshebl’s election encourages more people with a migration history to run for political office,” he said.

Not everyone has been so warm to the 29-year-old. ZDF reported the Syrian received hateful comments on the campaign trail.

The young politician went from house to house, promoting his election program, and “the experiences were predominantly positive,” but there was also a minority of far-right fringe voters in Ostelsheim that did not want to accept him due to his Syrian roots, Alshebl told ZDF.

Born to a schoolteacher and agricultural engineer in Syria, Alshebl described his life as carefree until the age of 20, according to his campaign website.

At the time, protests against the Syrian government that began in 2011 soon devolved into chaotic war. The fighting and later rise of ISIS forced 10.6 million people from home by late 2015 – about half of Syria’s pre-war population.

Alshebl faced the dilemma of being drafted for military service with the Syrian army or leaving the country, according to his website.

While many Syrians were displaced internally or fled to countries in the region, others like Alshebl made the dangerous journey to Europe. He was 21 years old at the time, and said he crossed from Turkey to the Greek island of Lesbos in a rubber dinghy.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel had implemented a brief open-door policy in 2015 that saw the country take in about 1.2 million asylum seekers in the following years, including Alshebl.

The move sparked a backlash in Germany and the sudden growth of the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the wake of summer 2015.

Once in Germany, Alshebl lived close to Ostelsheim and said at the time he felt “there is only one thing you can do: get back on your feet quickly and start investing in your own future quickly.”

For the last seven years he worked in the administration of Althengstett town hall, in a neighboring town. He drew from his experience, he said in his campaign, and made digital access to to public administration services one of priorities. Flexible childcare and climate protections are also on his agenda.

Alshebl, who is a member of the Green Party and now has German citizenship, pledged during his campaign that once elected as mayor he would move to Ostelsheim.

Tel Aviv
CNN
 — 

In a sea of Israeli flags, Yiftach Golov holds one that looks a little different.

Among the hundreds of thousands of protesters who took to the streets for the 13th week in a row on Saturday, Golov hoists a brown flag that represents a group called “Brother and Sisters in Arms.”

They are veterans – many, like Golov, from elite forces – who now feel they are fighting on a new battlefield: To save Israeli democracy.

“We believe this is our responsibility to go once again called to the flag of the nation to stop this madness to defend Israel,” Golov said, as he weaved his way through the protesters on Tel Aviv’s Kaplan street, between the high-rises that house many of Israel’s high tech companies.

During the second intifada, in the early 2000s, Golov served in a special forces reconnaissance unit. He was never before particularly political, focusing more on getting his PhD in biophysics from Tel Aviv University.

But when the protest movement against the Israeli government’s judicial overhaul plan began in January, Golov attended one a demonstration and soon became one of thousands of veterans, and now military reservists, who have taken up the cause as their new mission.

Some, including elite Air Force reservists, have taken it a step further, threatening not to heed the call to train or even serve in protest of the government’s plans planned judicial changes, which would give the governing parties more control over Israel’s judiciary.

Others have taken to becoming some of the most active organizers and demonstrators. Last week, a group from Brothers and Sisters in Arms protested by carrying a figure wrapped in the Israeli flag on a stretcher, the way they would carry a wounded comrade off the field.

While Golov says he has not taken the drastic step to refuse service, he understands the motivation.

“We’re fighting for justice and liberty, just like the American story, that’s the values that that are being represented symbolized back when we look at our flag, that’s something that was lacking lacking for the last few decades. So basically, we reclaim the flag,” he said.

Fellow members of the group, all wearing brown shirts with the organization’s logo, come up and say hello. They’re sprinkled all throughout the protests. One is even leading the “Pink Front,” a group of coordinated drummers who look like they are dressed for a rave, and often lead the chants at the protests.

They’re using skills they learned in the military – how to organize, how to mobilize – now for the protests. But more importantly, they say they have the same type of motivation.

“The very deep feeling that you are part of something bigger than yourself, that (you’re) allowed to sacrifice anything that is needed, whether it’s your career, health, seriously mental health,” Golov said. “We all have a mission, you’re willing to do it at any cost. You’re very determined, you know that you are on the right side, you’re carrying the torch of light. That keeps us being highly motivated despite the fact that we’re not sleeping for days.”

Israel’s protest movement is made up of many disparate groups, but the pressure from Israel’s much vaunted veterans has been seen as a key to moving the needle.

Last Monday, after weeks of sustained protests and the largest general strike in Israeli history, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a pause to the legislation, to allow time for negotiations with the opposition.

But despite the announcements, protesters are still out in the streets in large numbers. CNN affiliate Channel 12 in Israel estimated the size of Saturday’s demonstration in Tel Aviv at about 150,000 people. Organizers claimed it was 230,000.

Last week’s mass protests and widespread strike action came after Netanyahu said he had decided to fire Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for advocating a delay in passing the legislation – a move that Netanyahu has since delayed, sources told CNN, due to “the present security situation.”

In his televised speech calling for a delay, Gallant had said the pause in the legislation was needed “for the security of Israel,” citing the refusal of some Israel Defense Forces reservists to train in protest of the government plans. He said pressing ahead with the proposals could threaten Israel’s security.

Under pressure at home and from allies abroad, Netanyahu said he would delay votes on the remaining legislation until after the Knesset’s Passover recess in April “to give time for a real chance for a real debate.”

“Out of the responsibility to the nation, I decided to delay … the vote, in order to give time for discussion,” he added.

But Netanyahu indicated that the delay was only temporary. He insisted that the overhaul was necessary, and reiterated criticism of refusal to train or serve in the military in protest at the planned changes. “Refusing is the end of our country,” he said.

Many protesters don’t believe that the pause is real, or say it’s simply a stalling tactic to give Netanyahu some breathing room and get the protesters to go home before he plows on with the reforms.

“We will start doing deactivation only when we will know 100% that Israel state will stay a functional democratic country. Whatever needs to be done for that,” Golov said.

Editor’s Note: A version of this story first appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, a three-times-a-week look inside the region’s biggest stories. Sign up here.

Abu Dhabi, UAE
CNN
 — 

Turkey’s persecuted pro-Kurdish party has emerged as a kingmaker in the country’s upcoming election, playing a decisive role that may just tip the balance enough to unseat two-decade ruler Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

In a key setback to the Turkish president and leader of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) last month announced that it would not put forward its own presidential candidate, a move analysts say allows its supporters to vote for Erdogan’s main rival.

“We are facing a turning point that will shape the future of Turkey and (its) society,” said the HDP in a statement on March 23. “To fulfill our historical responsibility against the one-man rule, we will not field a presidential candidate in (the) May 14 elections.”

It is a twist of irony for the Turkish strongman, who spent the better half of the past decade cracking down on the party after it began chipping away at his voter base. Its former leader Selahattin Demirtas has been in prison for nearly seven years and the party faces possible closure by a court for suspected collusion with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and affiliated groups. But its influence may nonetheless determine the course of Turkey’s politics.

The HDP’s decision not to field a candidate came just three days after head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Erdogan’s main rival, visited the party’s co-chairs. He told reporters that the solution to Turkey’s problems, “including the Kurdish problem” lies in parliament,” according to Turkish media.

Kilicdaroglu, who represents the six-party Nation Alliance opposition bloc, is the strongest contender to run against Erdogan in years. And while the HDP hasn’t yet announced whether it will put its weight behind him, analysts say it is the kingmaker in the elections.

“It was a carefully crafted political discourse,” Hisyar Ozsoy, deputy co-chair of the HDP and a member of parliament from the predominantly Kurdish province of Diyarbakir, told CNN. “We are not going to have our own candidate, and we will leave it to the international community to interpret it the way they wish.”

Experts say the crackdown on the HDP is rooted in the threat it poses to Erdogan politically, as well as its position as one of the main parties representing Turkey’s Kurds, an ethnic minority from which a separatist militant movement has emerged.

The party and the Kurdish people have had a complicated relationship with Erdogan. The leader courted the Kurds in earlier years by granting them more rights and reversing restrictions on the use of their language. Relations with the HDP were also cordial once, as Erdogan worked with the party on a brief peace process with the PKK.

But ties between Erdogan and the HDP later turned sour, and the HDP fell under a sweeping crackdown aimed at the PKK and their affiliates.

Kurds are the biggest minority in Turkey, making up between 15% and 20% of the population, according to Minority Rights Group International.

It is unclear if the HDP will endorse Kilicdaroglu, but analysts say that the deliberate distance may be beneficial for the opposition candidate.

The accusations against the HDP place it in a precarious position during the elections. It currently faces a case in Turkey’s Constitutional Court over suspected ties to the PKK, which is designated as a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and the European Union. Knowing it may be banned at any moment, its candidates are running under the Green Left Party in parliament.

If the opposition is seen as allying with the HDP, Erdogan’s AK Party may use its influence in the media to discredit it as being pro-PKK, said Murat Somer, a political science professor at Koc University in Istanbul and author of Return to Point Zero, a book on the Turkish-Kurdish question in Turkey.

The HDP’s threat to Erdogan’s hold on power became apparent after the June 2015 election, the first general election it participated in. It won 13% of the seats, denying the ruling AK Party its majority for the first time since 2002. Erdogan, however, called a snap election five months later, which led to a drop in the HDP’s support to 10.7%, as well as the restoration of the AK Party’s overall majority.

“They are a kingmaker in these elections because the HDP gets about half of the votes of the Kurdish population in Turkey,” said Somer, adding that the other, more conservative Kurdish voters have traditionally voted for Erdogan’s AK Party. And last month, the Free Cause Party (HUDA-PAR), a tiny Kurdish-Islamist party announced support for Erdogan in the elections. The party has never won seats in parliament.

The HDP knows that its position is key to the outcome of next month’s vote, but that it’s also in a delicate situation.

“We want to play the game wisely, and we need to be very careful,” said Ozsoy, adding that the party wants to avoid a “contaminated political climate” where the elections are polarized “between a very ugly ultra-nationalist discourse against Kilicdaroglu and others.”

The party was founded in 2012 with a number of aims, said Ozsoy, one of which was “peaceful and democratic resolution of the Kurdish conflict.”

Somer said that the party was seen to be “an initiative” of the PKK, which later led to a heavy government crackdown on it in the name of counterterrorism.

Its former leader Demirtas remains an influential figure.

The Turkish government has been trying to link the HDP to the PKK but has so far failed to prove “a real connection,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC.

A post-Erdogan Turkey may give some breathing space to the Kurds and Kurdish-dominated parties in Turkey, Aydintasbas told CNN, noting that many Kurdish voters have recently left Erdogan’s camp. “For HDP, this is more than just an ideological choice,” she said. “It’s a matter of survival.”

Ozsoy says his party understands what’s at stake, not only for Turkey’s Kurds but for all its minorities.

“We are aware of our responsibility here. We are aware of our role. We know we are in a kingmaker position,” the HDP lawmaker said.

Two women arrested for not wearing hijab following ‘yogurt attack’

Two women were arrested in Iran for failing to wear the hijab in public, after a man threw a tub of yogurt at them at a store in the city of Shandiz on Thursday, according to Mizan News Agency, the state-run outlet for Iran’s judiciary.

Oil prices surge after OPEC+ producers announce surprise cuts

Oil prices spiked Monday after OPEC+ producers unexpectedly announced that they would cut output. Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped 5.31% to $84.13 a barrel, while WTI, the US benchmark, rose 5.48% to $79.83. Both were the sharpest price rises in almost a year. The collective output cut by the nine members of OPEC+ totals 1.66 million barrels per day.

Iran blames Israel for the killing of second IRGC officer, vows to respond

A second Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officer died following an attack in Syria on Friday, according to Iranian state media on Sunday. Iranian state media said the Iranian military adviser died after an Israeli attack near the Syrian capital Damascus left him wounded. The attack also killed another IRGC officer. In a tweet on Sunday, Iranian government spokesman Ali Bahadori Jahromi said the alleged Israeli attack wouldn’t go unanswered. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said on Sunday that Iran has the right to respond to “state terrorism.”

Iranian-American comedian Maz Jobrani, who has been touring the Middle East, spoke to CNN’s Becky Anderson about his support for the protests in his homeland, saying that he used his standup comedy platform to highlight the “brutality against the Iranian people.”

“It was an opportunity for me to say, ‘let’s keep fighting,’” he said.

Watch the interview here.

An Iranian state news outlet is gloating at what it sees as the demise of the US dollar.

IRNA recreated a popular meme to mark China and Brazil’s decision to reportedly ditch the US dollar as an intermediary in trade, citing the Chinese state news outlet, China Daily. It shows two men representing China and Brazil posing in front of a grave labelled “USD.”

The meme was pinned to the top of IRNA’s Twitter page, and was met with laughter and ridicule. “Dream on,” said another user, pointing to the dollar’s use as the main reserve currency around the world.

China Daily said that the agreement was part of “the rising global use of the Chinese renminbi.” It would reportedly enable China and Brazil to conduct trade and financial transactions using local currencies instead of the dollar.

Sydney
CNN
 — 

Australia’s men’s cricket team has withdrawn from a series of upcoming matches against Afghanistan in protest over the ruling Taliban’s restrictions on women and girls’ education and employment, Cricket Australia (CA) said in a statement Thursday.

The teams were scheduled to play three One Day International (ODI) games in the United Arab Emirates in March, but CA decided to cancel the series after “extensive consultation” with “several stakeholders including the Australian government,” the statement said.

“CA is committed to supporting [and] growing the game for women and men around the world, including in Afghanistan, and will continue to engage with the Afghanistan Cricket Board in anticipation of improved conditions for women and girls in the country,” it added.

In December, the Taliban announced the suspension of university education for all female students. The move followed a decision in March to bar girls from returning to secondary schools, coming after months-long closures that had been in place since the hardline Islamist group took over Afghanistan in August 2021.

Later that month, the Taliban ordered all local and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to stop their female employees from coming to work, warning that non-compliance would result in the revocation of their licenses.

The Afghanistan Cricket Board (ACB) responded to CA’s decision on Thursday, describing it as “pathetic” and “an attempt to enter the realm of politics and politicize the sport.”

“By prioritizing political interests over the principles of fair play and sportsmanship, Cricket Australia is undermining the integrity of the game and damaging the relationship between the two nations,” the statement added.

“The decision to withdraw from playing the upcoming ODI series against Afghanistan is unfair and unexpected and will have a negative impact on the development and growth of cricket in Afghanistan, as well as affect[ing] the love and passion of the Afghan nation for the game.”

The ACB said it was considering what action to take on the matter, including the possibility of writing to the International Cricket Council (ICC) and “rethinking the participation of Afghan players” in Australia’s domestic Twenty20 competition, the Big Bash League (BBL).

The ACB statement followed comments from prominent Afghan player Rashid Khan.

Khan, who played for the Adelaide Strikers in this year’s BBL, accompanied a statement on Twitter with the words: “Keep politics out of it.”

“I am really disappointed to hear that Australia have pulled out of the series to play us in March,” Khan wrote.

“I take great pride in representing my country and we have made great progress on the world stage. This decision from CA sets us back in that journey.

“If playing vs Afghanistan is so uncomfortable for Australia then I wouldn’t want to make anyone uncomfortable with my presence in the BBL. Therefore I will be strongly considering my future in that competition.”

CA had previously backed out of a proposed Test match against Afghanistan due to be hosted in Tasmania in November 2021 over the Taliban’s ban on women participating in sports.

“Driving the growth of women’s cricket globally is incredibly important to Cricket Australia. Our vision for cricket is that it is a sport for all, and we support the game unequivocally for women at every level,” CA said at the time.

Australia’s sports minister Anika Wells on Thursday said Canberra supports Cricket Australia’s move.

“The Australian government welcomes Cricket Australia’s decision to withdraw from the upcoming men’s One Day International series against Afghanistan, following the Taliban’s increased suppression of women and girls’ rights,” she tweeted.

Although the Taliban repeatedly claimed it would protect the rights of girls and women, the group has done the opposite, stripping away the hard-won freedoms for which women have fought tirelessly over the past two decades.

The United Nations and at least half a dozen major foreign aid groups have said they are temporarily suspending their operations in Afghanistan following the ban on female NGO employees.

CNN
 — 

Three years after fleeing Iran, chess referee Shohreh Bayat fears being further ostracized after challenging the game’s governing body and its president, Russia’s former deputy prime minister, over her choice of clothing at a tournament in October.

Back in 2020, Bayat was criticized in Iran for not wearing the appropriate headscarf at the Women’s World Chess Championship in China and Russia. She refused to bow to the regime’s pressure but, as a result, has not returned home out of fear of punishment.

Now, three years on, Bayat has raised the hackles of the International Chess Federation (FIDE) and its president for wearing clothes in support of the Iranian protests and the people of Ukraine.

The 35-year-old Bayat, who now lives in London with her husband, recently officiated at the 2022 Fischer Random World Chess Championship in Reykjavik, Iceland, in October.

The tournament was another opportunity for Bayat to officiate some of the sport’s biggest stars, though it came at a difficult time as protests spread across her home country of Iran after the death of Mahsa Amini.

The 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman died in mid-September after being detained by the country’s morality police, allegedly for not abiding by the country’s conservative dress code, sparking outrage around a range of grievances with the regime.

“It reminded me of my own story,” Bayat told CNN. “So I decided to stand up for women’s rights in Iran. During the tournament I wore a t-shirt with the motto of Iranian people ‘WomanLifeFreedom’ and I wanted to stand with them.”

Bayat said that after the first day of wearing the t-shirt, a FIDE official asked her, unofficially, to not wear it.

In a statement sent to CNN, FIDE said that “arbiters at top events are required to dress in due decor and discretion” and that Bayat “disregarded direct instructions given to her to stop wearing slogans or mottos.”

According to Bayat, such regulations are not found in FIDE’s arbiter handbook and she says no dress code was given for the event in Iceland.

The arbiter’s handbook does say officials must “follow the dress code” and that they must be “dressed properly, helping to improve the image of chess as a sport.” CNN has reached out to FIDE to clarify the dress code that was expected for the October event.

Frustrated by the request to stop wearing the slogan, Bayat said she decided she was not breaking any rules so she wore it again the next day.

Bayat says she was once again asked by an official to take it off, only this time she was told the request came from FIDE President Arkady Dvorkovich, who previously served as Russia’s deputy prime minister and who attended the tournament in Iceland.

Bayat said Dvorkovich never spoke to her in person about the t-shirt, despite being in the same room as her when she wore it.

Dvorkovich, however, messaged her on WhatsApp – messages seen by CNN – to request Bayat not use official FIDE events for “political purposes.”

Angered by Dvorkovich’s request, Bayat says she quickly responded but then deleted her “emotional” reply.

Bayat then informed Dvorkovich she would not wear the t-shirt the next day, though she wanted to do the “right thing.”

Given that FIDE’s charter states that it is “committed to respecting all internationally recognized human rights and shall strive to promote the protection of these rights,” Bayat said she decided she had not violated any rule.

“I thought carefully, and I realized that it is not me that was making chess political but Arkady,” Bayat said.

“I was following FIDE rules, but Arkady was breaking them by forbidding me to stand up for women’s rights in Iran.”

FIDE refuted any notion that politics played a part in Dvorkovich’s request to Bayat.

“We were not judging her views or her activism, but the platform and moment she chose for it,” FIDE told CNN.

The following day, Bayat, who has not seen her parents since leaving Iran over three years ago, said she bought a blue and yellow outfit and wore it in support of the Ukrainian people fighting against the Russian invasion, and also in memory of the 176 people that were killed when Iran said it unintentionally shot down a Ukrainian plane that crashed near Tehran in 2020.

She says nothing was said to her about the blue and yellow outfit but, since leaving the tournament in Iceland, Bayat told CNN that she hasn’t been invited to another FIDE event, despite the organization recognizing her as the best female arbiter in Europe in 2022.

Bayat said she was initially removed from the arbiter commission – a registry of all qualified arbiters – and, in a message seen by CNN, a top FIDE official told her it was because of her outfits in Iceland.

Her name is currently listed on the database and FIDE told CNN that Bayat was still very much in contention to officiate future events but that it has “more International Arbiters than world events, so we need to establish some rotation.”

FIDE President Dvorkovich was first elected in 2018 and was re-elected for a second term in August. Previously, the 50-year-old served as Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister between 2012-2018 following a stint as the Kremlin’s top economic adviser.

The Kremlin welcomed Dvorkovich being reelected as FIDE president last year, but he has always maintained his proximity to the Kremlin would not impact his work for FIDE and noted that he was one of the most senior establishment figures in Russia to question the war in Ukraine.

However, Bayat told CNN she believes Dvorkovich is not accepting criticism of Iran due to Russia’s links with the country – Iran continues to support Russia with military aid for the war in Ukraine.

She notes FIDE’s handling of the Iranian Chess Federation as further evidence of this.

Dvorkovich wrote a letter urging Iran to comply with FIDE’s regulations in 2020 after it allegedly told its players to not play against Israeli opponents.

The acting president of Iran’s Chess Federation responded, saying that Iran has constantly been in compliance with FIDE’s rules and statutes, and that the athletes themselves decide in which events to participate.

Despite being given a warning, Iranian players are still forfeiting games and FIDE has not yet taken concrete action.

“I find it extremely ironic that FIDE finds my human rights t-shirt political, but when the Iran Chess Federation repeatedly forces its players not to play against Israel, FIDE is silent and turns a blind eye to that,” Bayat said.

Asked by CNN whether it was confident Dvorkovich was working without pressure from Russian authorities in regards to Bayat’s support of the Iranian protests, FIDE said it had total and absolute faith in him.

“While we respect Ms. Bayat’s political stance and activities, any FIDE officials need to follow political neutrality while on duty, and of all the official positions one can hold, that of an arbiter is the one that demands higher standards of integrity, neutrality, and discretion,” FIDE said in a statement to CNN.

“No matter how noble or uncontroversial the cause is, doing activism from that role is inappropriate and unprofessional. She was indeed asked not to wear any slogans while acting as an arbiter and explained the reasons why.”

Bayat’s activism has attracted the attention of the biggest names in the sport after the Iranian chess referee tweeted about the incident again on Sunday.

US grandmaster Hikaru Nakamura recently tweeted “#WomenLifeFreedom #IStandWithUkraine” in response to a message about Bayat’s tweet.

Meanwhile, chess superstar Magnus Carlsen’s coach Peter Heine Nielsen tweeted: “The chess world needs to make up its mind. On which side do we actually stand?”

Bayat, who now also works in primary schools teaching chess, said the support she’s received has been “heartwarming,” as it was when she first sought asylum in England back in 2020.

“I was initially trying to support Iranian women. I think that’s important and it’s very nice to see other people are supporting me for doing the right thing,” she said.

Editor’s Note: A version of this story appears in today’s Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, CNN’s three-times-a-week look inside the region’s biggest stories. Sign up here.

Abu Dhabi, UAE
CNN
 — 

It’s a partnership that’s been hailed as “history in the making.”

One of the world’s most famous soccer stars landed in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Tuesday, where Cristiano Ronaldo was received in an extravagant ceremony, with excited children sporting his new club’s yellow and blue jerseys.

Oil-rich Saudi Arabia’s success in luring the five-time Ballon d’Or winner on a two-year contract with the kingdom’s Al Nassr FC is the Gulf monarchy’s latest step in realizing its sporting ambitions – seemingly at any cost.

According to Saudi state-owned media, Ronaldo will earn an estimated $200 million a year with Al Nassr, making him the world’s highest-paid soccer player.

Shortly after the 37-year-old’s signing with Al Nassr, the club’s Instagram page gained over 5.3 million new followers. Its official website was inaccessible after exceeding its bandwidth limit due to the sudden surge in traffic, and the hashtag #HalaRonaldo – Hello, Ronaldo in Arabic – was trending for days across the Middle East on Twitter.

Analysts say that his recruitment in Saudi Arabia is part of a wider effort by the kingdom to diversify its sources of revenue and become a serious player in the international sporting scene.

It is also seen as a move by the kingdom to shore up its image after it was tarnished by the 2018 dismemberment and killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the hands of Saudi agents, and a devastating war it started in Yemen in 2015.

Critics have decried the kingdom for “sportswashing,” an attempt to burnish one’s reputation through sport.

“I think Saudi Arabia has recognized a couple of years ago that to be a powerful nation internationally, you cannot just rely on hard power,” Danyel Reiche, a visiting research fellow and associate professor at Georgetown University Qatar, told CNN.

“You also need to invest in soft power, and the case of Qatar shows that this can work pretty well,” he said, adding that Saudi Arabia is following in the Qatari approach with sport, but with a delay of around 25 years.

Neighboring Qatar has also faced immense criticism since it won the bid to hosting last year’s FIFA World Cup in 2010.

Despite the smaller Gulf state facing similar accusations of “sportswashing,” the tournament has largely been viewed as a success, not least in exposing the world to a different view of the Middle East, thanks in part to Morocco’s success in reaching the semifinals and Saudi Arabia beating eventual World Cup champion Argentina in their opening group game.

Gulf nations engage in fierce competition to become the region’s premier entertainment and sporting hubs. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain, in close proximity to each other, each have their own Formula One racing event. But their competition hasn’t been confined to the region. Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also bought trophy European soccer teams.

Riyadh is playing catchup with neighbors who have long realized the importance of investing in sports, said Simon Chadwick, professor of sport and geopolitical economy at SKEMA Business School in Lille, France, especially as its main source of income – oil – is being gradually shunned.

“This is part of an ongoing attempt to create more resilient economies that are more broadly based upon industries other than those that are derived from oil and gas,” Chadwick told CNN.

Ronaldo’s new club Al Nassr is backed by Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC), a subsidiary of the kingdom’s wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), which has played a pivotal role in Saudi Arabia’s diversification plans.

“It is also a sign of interconnectedness, of globalization and of opening up to the rest of the world,” said Georgetown University’s Reiche.

The move is part of “several recent high profile moves in the sports world, including hosting the Andy Ruiz Jr. and Anthony Joshua world heavywight boxing championship bout in 2019, and launching the LIV Golf championship,” said Omar Al-Ubaydli, director of research at the Bahrain-based Derasat think tank. “It is a significant piece of a large puzzle that represents their economic restructuring.”

The kingdom has been on a path to not only diversify its economy, but also shift its image amid a barrage of criticism over its human rights record and treatment of women. Saudi Arabia is today hosting everything from desert raves to teaming up with renowned soccer players. Argentina’s Lionel Messi last year signed a lucrative promotional deal with the kingdom.

Hailed as the world’s greatest player, 35-year-old Messi ended this year’s World Cup tournament in Qatar with his team’s win over France, making his ambassadorship of even greater value to the kingdom.

The acquisition of such key global figures will also help combat the monarchy’s decades-long reputation of being “secretive” and “ultra-conservative,” James Dorsey, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and an expert on soccer in the Middle East, told CNN’s Eleni Giokos on Wednesday.

Al-Ubaydli said that the kingdom wants to use high profile international sports “as a vehicle for advertising to the world its openness.”

Saudi Arabia bought the English Premier league club Newcastle United in 2021 through a three-party consortium, with PIF being the largest stakeholder. The move proved controversial, as Amnesty International and other human rights defenders worried it would overshadow the kingdom’s human rights violations.

Ronaldo’s work with Saudi Arabia is already being criticized by rights groups who are urging the soccer player to “draw attention to human rights issues” in Saudi Arabia.

“Saudi Arabia has an image problem,” especially since Khashoggi’s killing, says Reiche. But the kingdom’s recent investments in sports and entertainment are “not about sportswashing but about developing the country, social change and opening up to the world.”

Saudi Arabia is reportedly weighing a 2030 World Cup bid with Egypt and Greece, but the kingdom’s tourism ministry noted in November that it has not yet submitted an official bid. Chadwick believes that Ronaldo’s deal with Al Nassr, however, may help boost the kingdom’s bid should it choose it pursue it.

Another way Saudi Arabia may benefit from Ronaldo’s acquisition is that it will be able to improve commercial performance, says Chadwick, especially if this collaboration attracts further international talent.

“It is important to see Ronaldo not just as a geopolitical instrument,” said Chadwick, “There is still a commercial component to him and to the purpose he is expected to serve in Saudi Arabia.”

What Ronaldo’s move to Saudi Arabia shows is that the kingdom aspires “to be seen as being the best” and that it wants to be perceived as a “contender and a legitimate member of the international football community,” said Chadwick.

UAE FM meets Syria’s Assad in Damascus in further sign of thawing ties

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad received the United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed in Damascus on Wednesday in the latest sign of thawing relations between Assad and the Gulf state. The meeting addressed developments in Syria and the wider Middle East, according to UAE state news agency WAM.

Turkish President Erdogan says he could meet with Assad

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech on Thursday that he could meet the Syrian leader “to establish peace.”

Iran shuts down French cultural center over Charlie Hebdo’s Khamenei cartoons

Iran announced on Thursday it had ended the activities of a Tehran-based French research institute, in reaction to cartoons mocking Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and fellow Shia Muslim clerics published by French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo this week.

The prized legacy of iconic Egyptian singer Umm Kulthum re-emerged this year when Rolling Stone magazine featured her in its “200 Greatest Singers of All Time.”

Ranking 61st, Umm Kulthum was the only Arab artist to make it to the list, with the magazine saying that she “has no real equivalent among singers in the West.”

Born in a small village northeast of the Egyptian capital Cairo, Umm Kulthum rose to unmatched fame as she came to represent “the soul of the pan-Arab world,” the music magazine said.

“Her potent contralto, which could blur gender in its lower register, conveyed breathtaking emotional range in complex songs that, across theme and wildly-ornamented variations, could easily last an hour, as she worked crowds like a fiery preacher,” it wrote.

Nicknamed “the lady of Arab singing,” her music featured both classical Arabic poetry as well as colloquial songs still adored by younger generations. Her most famous pieces include “Inta Uumri” (you are my life), “Alf Leila Weileila” (a thousand and one nights), “Amal Hayati” (hope of my life) and “Daret al-Ayyam” (the days have come around). Some of her songs have been remixed to modern beats that have made their way to Middle Eastern nightclubs.

The singer remains an unmatched voice across the Arab World and her music can still be heard in many traditional coffee shops in Old Cairo’s neighborhoods and other parts of the Arab world.

Umm Kulthum’s death in 1975 brought millions of mourners to the streets of Cairo.

By Nadeen Ebrahim