Donald Trump’s electoral victory has left Mexico bracing for potential trade tensions, tariffs and mass migrant deportations that experts say could pose a major test of relations between the closely connected neighbours.

On the eve of the election, Trump vowed to impose tariffs of at least 25 per cent on goods coming from Mexico unless it stops an “onslaught of criminals and drugs.”

The Latin American nation “has to take what Trump says seriously” given his past actions such as building a border fence, said Pamela Starr, an expert on US-Mexican relations at the University of Southern California.

At the same time, “Trump likes to negotiate from a position of strength, which means he tends to use coercive rhetoric to lay out an extreme position from which he can negotiate down,” she told AFP.

Trump’s win sent the Mexican peso sliding to a two-year low against the dollar as markets prepared for increased trade frictions.

Gabriela Siller, head of economic analysis for the financial group Banco Base, described tariffs of 25pc as “no small threat”. “They would affect exports, formal job creation, foreign direct investment and economic growth,” likely leading to downgrades in Mexico’s sovereign credit rating, she said.

President Claudia Sheinbaum reassured Mexicans that Trump’s victory was “no cause for concern.” Mexico and the United States have “a very important economic integration that benefits both countries. It is a strength of both. We do not compete with each other, but on the contrary, we complement each other,” she said.

‘Credible threats’

Experts think Trump’s vow to carry out the largest mass deportation of migrants in American history will be one of the biggest tests for ties with Mexico.

Trump “will absolutely try to deport as many undocumented migrants in the United States as possible, and that’s going to create a real challenge in US-Mexico relations,” Starr said.

On the same day that Americans voted, hundreds of migrants in southern Mexico set off on foot in a caravan heading to the US border.

Heyson Diaz, from Venezuela, urged Trump to offer migrants an immigration procedure “to be able to enter the United States legally.” It is not the first time that Trump has threatened to impose steep tariffs unless Mexico does more to curb migrant flows – he did the same during his last presidency.

“And he got exactly the reaction that he wanted from Mexico,” which sent a high-level team to Washington to negotiate an agreement, said Duncan Wood, president of the Pacific Council on International Policy, a US nonprofit organization.

“These are credible threats. And Trump is not a free trader. The people around him this time around are not free traders. I think that there is every reason to believe that he would use that kind of threat to get Mexico to do exactly what he wants,” he said.

Trade relations were likely to “get very messy,” according to Wood, a longtime Mexico watcher who does not rule out Trump seeking to renegotiate a regional free trade agreement to obtain better terms.

That uncertainty would throw up a major hurdle to Mexico’s efforts to lure US-owned factories from Asia — a trend known as “nearshoring.” The free trade deal between Mexico, the United States and Canada — which Trump successfully pushed to revamp during his last presidency — is due to be reviewed in 2026.

“A Republican victory could imply a more aggressive negotiation style, generating more uncertainty that could permeate the exchange rate and inflation in particular,” said Ramse Gutierrez, vice president at investment firm Franklin Templeton in Mexico City.

Tough talk on cartels

When it comes to tackling drug trafficking, however, tough talk about bombing Mexican cartels or sending troops over the border is unlikely to become a reality, Wood said.

“Launching missile strikes into Mexico is not what the US military wants to do,” he said. “And any kind of boots-on-the-ground action in Mexico just would not fly,” he added.

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum speaks during her daily press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on November 6. — AFP
On a personal level, relations between Washington and Mexico City are also expected to be rockier than they would have been if Democrat Kamala Harris had won.

“The problem is that Sheinbaum’s not only a woman, but she’s a strong, smart woman. And those aren’t the kind of women that Donald Trump is comfortable around,” Starr said.

“I think he will challenge her and push her and corner her. But she’s tough, and I suspect that she will hit back as hard and he will realize that he has to come to some sort of an agreement with her, ultimately,” she said.

The death toll from Hurricane Milton rose to at least 16 on Friday, officials in Florida said, as residents began the painful process of piecing their lives and homes back together.

Nearly 2.5 million households and businesses were still without power, and some areas in the path cut through the Sunshine State by the monster storm from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic Ocean remained flooded.

Milton crashed into the Florida Gulf Coast late on Wednesday as a Category 3 storm, with powerful winds smashing communities still reeling from Hurricane Helene two weeks ago, which killed 237 people across the US southeast, including in Florida.

So far, though, it appeared that tornadoes, rather than floodwaters, were responsible for many of the storm’s deaths.

“It was pretty scary,” said Susan Stepp, a 70-year-old resident of Fort Pierce, a city on Florida’s Atlantic coast where four people died in a tornado spawned by Milton.

“They did find some people just outside dead, in a tree,” she told AFP. “I wish they would have evacuated.” Stepp’s husband Bill said a tornado “picked up my 22-ton motor home and threw it across the yard.”

“Scary and heartbreaking at the same time, to see much damage and all things you really love just gone, but it’s only things, and we’re still here,” the 72-year-old said.

At least six people were killed in St Lucie County, four in Volusia County, two in Pinellas County, and one each in Hillsborough, Polk, Orange and Citrus counties, local officials said.

The storm downed power lines, shredded the roof of the Tampa baseball stadium and inundated homes, but Florida was able to avoid the level of catastrophic devastation that officials had feared.

“The storm was significant, but thankfully this was not the worst-case scenario,” Governor Ron DeSantis told a news conference.

The National Weather Service issued 126 tornado warnings across the state on Wednesday, the most ever issued for a single calendar day for the state in records dating back to 1986, wrote hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

“It is not easy to think you have everything and suddenly you have nothing,” said Lidier Rodriguez, who was forced to leave his flooded apartment near Tampa Bay.

‘Get a life’

Search operations were ongoing on Friday, and the Coast Guard reported the spectacular rescue of a boat captain who rode out the storm clinging to a cooler in the Gulf of Mexico.

“This man survived in a nightmare scenario for even the most experienced mariner,” Dana Grady, the US Coast Guard’s Sector St Petersburg command centre chief, said in a statement.

President Joe Biden on Thursday urged people to stay inside in the aftermath of the storm, with downed power lines and debris creating dangerous conditions.

In a video posted on social media, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said he and his wife Melania were praying for Florida residents affected by the storm and urged them to vote for him.

“Hopefully, on January 20th you’re going to have somebody that’s really going to help you and help you like never before,” the former president said, referring to the presidential inauguration date.

Hurricane Helene struck Florida late last month, and the back-to-back storms have become election fodder as Trump spreads conspiracy theories claiming Biden and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris are abandoning victims.

Biden snapped back on Thursday, telling Trump to “get a life.”

‘Wake-up call’

Scientists say extreme rainfall and destructive storms are occurring with greater severity and frequency as temperatures rise due to climate change. As warmer ocean surfaces release more water vapour, they provide more energy for storms as they form.

“There is no question it needs to be a serious wake-up call for everyone in terms of climate change,” Kristin Joyce, a 72-year-old interior designer, told AFP in Sarasota Bay as she surveyed the damage.

At least 192 people have been killed in a wave of violence that began last month between warring drug gangs in Mexico’s northwestern state of Sinaloa, the State Public Security Council, a local civilian-led watchdog, said on Wednesday.

The council, which consists of members of Sinaloan society such as academics, business representatives and nonprofits, said that to date, nearly 200 murders and 226 disappearances have been reported since the onset of the violence on September 9.

Around 200 families have fled the violence, with 180 businesses closing and 2,000 jobs lost amid the armed conflict between the leading factions of the Sinaloa Cartel.

Following the arrest of notorious drug kingpin and Sinaloa Cartel co-founder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada on July 25, a violent shift in the power dynamics of the cartel founded by Zambada and Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, who is serving a life sentence in a US prison, took place.

As the 70-year-old Zambada was taken into custody by US authorities in El Paso, Texas, the sons and heirs of El Chapo, the second largest force inside the cartel, called The Chapitos, embarked on a violent power grab and ignited a brutal war in their hometown in Sinaloa.

As the Chapitos and Zambada’s loyalists have mobilised their troops, Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya announced last week that 590 National Guard troops had moved in to shield the state.

“We hope that they will help us …The National Guard, Air Force, Navy and State Police are also very coordinated in their work, which has helped us reduce [violence]. Unfortunately, however, we cannot say that it has been completely resolved yet,” he said.

Puerto Escondido, Mexico — Hurricane John struck Mexico’s southern Pacific coast with life-threatening flood potential after growing into a major hurricane in a matter of hours. It came ashore near the town of Punta Maldonado late Monday night as a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. John’s rapid intensification forced authorities to rush to keep pace and warn people of its potential destruction.

“Seek higher ground, protect yourselves and do not forget that life is the most important thing; material things can be replaced. We are here,” Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador wrote on the social media platform X.

By early Tuesday, John had weakened to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph maximum sustained winds, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. It was expected to batter Punta Maldonado and the nearby tourist hubs Acapulco and Puerto Escondido before being weakened over the high terrain inland.

The center said before landfall that “life-threatening” storm surges and flash floods were already ravaging the Pacific coast near Oaxaca.

Hurricane John shows growing threat of rapid intensification

The unexpected surge in strength caught scientists, authorities and residents of the area by surprise, something AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Matt Benz and other experts have attributed to warmer oceans, which add fuel to the hurricanes.

As a result, surprise surges in hurricanes’ strength have become increasingly common, Benz said.

“These are storms that we haven’t really experienced before,” he said. “Rapid intensification has occurred more frequently in modern times as opposed to back in the historical record. So that’s telling us there’s something going on there.”

Rapid intensification is defined by meteorologists as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) over a 24 hour period, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  

Residents were tense in Oaxaca’s coastal cities as the forecast shifted and authorities responded.

Laura Velázquez, the federal coordinator of civil protection, told residents of Pacific coastal cities they should evacuate their homes and head to shelters in order to “protect theirs and their family’s lives.”

“It’s very important that all citizens in the coastal zone… take preventive measures,” Velázquez said.

Ana Aldai, a 33-year-old employee of a restaurant on the shores of the tourist hub Puerto Escondido, said businesses in the area began closing after authorities ordered the suspension of all work on the area’s main beaches.

The governments of Guerrero and Oaxaca states said classes would be suspended in a number of coastal zones on Tuesday.

Oaxaca’s governor said the state government had evacuated 3,000 people and set up 80 shelters. It also said it sent out 1,000 military and state personnel to address the emergency.

Videos on social media from Puerto Escondido showed flip-flop-clad tourists walking through heavy rain and fishermen pulling their boats out of the water. Strong rains in previous days have already left some roads in the region in a precarious position.

Aldai said she was “a little bit distressed” because notice from authorities came quickly. “There was no opportunity to make the necessary purchases. That also distresses us,” she said.

A lingering impact for a coast battered a year earlier by Otis

Benz, the meteorologist, expressed concern that the storm could slow once it hits land, leaving the storm hovering over the coastal zone, which could cause even greater damage.

The hurricane is bleak news for the region, which last year was walloped by Otis, a similar rapidly intensifying hurricane.

Otis devastated the resort city of Acapulco, where residents had little warning of the strength of what was about to hit them. One of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes ever seen, scientists at the time said it was a product of changing climate conditions.

Otis blew out power in the city for days, left bodies scattered on the coast and desperate family members searching for lost loved ones. Much of the city was left in a state of lawlessness and thousands scavenged in stores, scrambled for food and water.

The government of López Obrador received harsh criticism for its slow response to Otis, but authorities have since pledged to pick up their speed.

President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum said her government planned to work on improving an early alert system, similar to what the country has with earthquakes.

Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain across coastal areas of Chiapas state with more in isolated areas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated higher totals can be expected through Thursday.

“You’re going to feel the impacts of the storm probably for the next couple of weeks to a couple of months,” meteorologist Benz added.