महाराष्ट्र में 20 नवंबर को विधानसभा चुनाव के लिए वोटिंग होनी है, इसे लेकर प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी ने गुरुवार को मुंबई के दादर स्थित शिवाजी पार्क मैदान में रैली की, लेकिन इस रैली में डिप्टी सीएम अजित पवार और उनकी पार्टी के अन्य वरिष्ठ नेताओं ने हिस्सा नहीं लिया. साथ ही NCP उम्मीदवार सना मलिक, नवाब मलिक और जीशान सिद्दीकी भी महायुति गठबंधन की रैली में शामिल नहीं हुए. जबकि शिवसेना (शिंदे गुट) और रामदास अठावले की अगुवाई वाली आरपीआई समेत महायुति के सभी उम्मीदवार रैली के दौरान मंच पर मौजूद थे.

पीएम मोदी ने रैली के दौरान कहा कि महाविकास अघाड़ी के लोग तुष्टिकरण के गुलाम हो चुके हैं. ये वो अघाड़ी है, जो राम मंदिर का विरोध करते हैं. भगवा आतंकवाद शब्द गढ़ते हैं. कश्मीर में 370 की वापसी के लिए प्रस्ताव पारित करते हैं, आज महाराष्ट्र विधानसभा चुनाव की मेरी आख़िरी सभा है. हर क्षेत्र के लोगों से मेरा संवाद हुआ है. उन्होंने कहा कि पूरे महाराष्ट्र का आशीर्वाद आज महायुति के साथ है. 

‘सरकार बनाने के लिए कांग्रेस बिना पानी के मछली जैसी तड़प रही’

उन्होंने कहा कि महाविकास अघाड़ी वालों के लिए देश से ऊपर उनका दल है. जब भारत आगे बढ़ता है, तो अघाड़ी वालों को तक़लीफ होती है. ये लोग भारत की उपलब्धि पर सवाल उठाते हैं. अघाड़ी के लोग जाति के नाम पर लोगों को लड़ाने में लगे हैं. सरकार बनाने के लिए कांग्रेस बिना पानी के मछली जैसी तड़प रही है. 

‘एससी-एसटी की जातियों को लड़ाना चाहती है कांग्रेस’

पीएम ने कहा कि कांग्रेस एससी-एसटी की जातियों को आपस में लड़ाना चाहती है. मैं बार-बार कह रहा हूं कि जिस प्रकार से महाविकास अघाड़ी के लोग कारनामे कर रहे हैं, जिस प्रकार से ‘कांग्रेस के शहज़ादे’ तबाही की भाषा बोल रहे हैं, ऐसे में एक बात बहुत ज़रूरी हो गई है- ‘एक हैं तो सेफ हैं’.

महाविकास अघाड़ी पर साधा निशाना

पीएम मोदी ने कहा कि अघाड़ी में एक ऐसा दल है, जिसने बालासाहेब का अपमान करने वाले दल के हाथ में अपना रिमोट सौंप दिया है. हिम्मत है तो एक बार को ‘कांग्रेस के शहज़ादे’ के मुंह से निकलवाइए- हिंदू हृदय सम्राट बालासाहेब ठाकरे. उन्होंने कहा कि ‘आज देश में मोदी की सरकार है, आतंक के आकाओं को पता है, इन अघाड़ी वालों को पता हो या ना हो कि भारत के खिलाफ कुछ किया, मुंबई के खिलाफ कुछ भी किया तो पाताल में भी मोदी नहीं छोड़ेगा.’

With a budgetary allocation of ₹46,000 crore this year, Ladki Bahin Yojana is the centrepiece in a host of populist cash transfer and welfare schemes offered by chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Mahayuti government in its bid to return to power when the state goes to the polls on Wednesday. The Mahayuti comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (SS) and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

Launched just months before the election, it is similar to the Ladli Bahna Yojana in Madhya Pradesh, which helped the incumbent BJP win the state election last winter. But it is not the only scheme being offered in Maharashtra.

In the last few months, the ruling coalition has announced a series of other sops and schemes, including waiving of electricity costs for agriculture pumps up to 7.5 horsepower capacity, training and stipend for youth, free pilgrimages for senior citizens, and even a toll waiver on light vehicles at five entry points to Mumbai. Some estimates put the annual allocation for such schemes upwards of ₹96,000 crore.

Not to be outdone, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), too, has promised enhanced monthly financial aid for women, electricity for the poor, subsidized gas cylinders, as well as farm debt waivers in its manifesto. The MVA comprises the Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and NCP Sharadchandra Pawar (NCP-SP).

Maharashtra is a politically crucial state, with the second highest number of parliamentary seats in the country. The assembly election in the state comes just months after the Lok Sabha polls, where the Congress-led MVA won more seats than the BJP-led Mahayuti. This is the first state election since Maharashtra’s two key regional parties—the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Shiv Sena (SS)—split.

Maharashtra is the biggest contributor to India’s GDP (gross domestic product). Historically, cutting across party lines, farm loan waivers and farm power bill waivers have been a recurring theme in the state’s political landscape. But experts say the scale of the populist pitch in this state election is breathtaking.

These populist schemes (and promises) come at a time when the state is steeped in massive debt and red flags have been raised by the finance department on the profligate spending on sops as well as infrastructure projects.

Voters in India’s second most populous state say inflation, unemployment and rural distress are key electoral issues and are divided over whether the competitive populism will influence their voting choices. Experts feel that while such populism will help mobilize voters, it does not necessarily guarantee a win.

Women voters

On a hot November afternoon, eight women in their late thirties sit and chat at a neighbour’s home in a densely populated slum in Mumbai’s Sakinaka locality. All except one are beneficiaries of the Ladki scheme. Three of them also received a household utensil set in the runup to the elections from the domestic workers welfare board. They all have varied views on the scheme.

Vandana Prakash Gaekwad, a domestic worker who first found out about the scheme from a YouTube reel, said she feels it will be stopped after the election. Manisha Gaekwad, a housewife, said that she would prefer to see the scheme stopped if in return the government reduces the cost of everyday items such as vegetables and groceries. And Samta Wahul said that “women are smarter than politicians think” and will keep several factors in mind while getting their fingers inked.

There are 4.66 crore women voters in Maharashtra (and 4.97 crore men). Of them, more than 2.34 crore women are already beneficiaries of the scheme. If it returns to power, the Mahayuti has pledged to increase the monthly assistance under the scheme to ₹2,100. Other women-specific schemes introduced in this summer’s state budget include pink e-rickshaws (under which 10,000 women in 17 cities will be financed to buy rickshaws), equipment for health sub-centres for breast and cervical cancer screening, a startup scheme for small entrepreneurs, and three free gas cylinders.

Most of the women voters Mint spoke to highlighted how rising inflation had made it difficult to run households and questioned why the ruling alliance waited till a few months before the election to announce the Ladki scheme.

Keshav Upadhye, the Maharashtra BJP’s chief spokesperson, said that it was unfair to link the scheme with elections because it has been five months since it was first announced. “This scheme has brought about a big change on the ground, especially in rural areas. Women feel self-reliant as they have been using this money to do something of their own,” he told Mint.

In response to a question on concerns over the stress on the state’s finances, Upadhye said these schemes should not be viewed as a “financial burden” and said each state has its own financial situation within which such calls are taken.

An increase in women’s political participation in the last decade has meant that political parties, especially the Congress and BJP, have eyed their votes. In the past, gender-targeted schemes have helped parties win elections. Examples include prohibition for the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar, Mission Shakti for the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, and subsidized gas cylinders under the Ujjawala Yojana for the BJP nationally.

Prithviraj Chavan, a former Maharashtra chief minister and chief of the Congress’ manifesto committee in the state, gave a spirited defence of the party’s proposed cash transfer scheme for women. “There is evidence in international economic theories on universal basic income about how direct cash transfers help women. We promised the same in Karnataka and Telangana and it has helped women a lot,” he told Mint.

“There can always be an argument over where the money is going to come from. But money must be found and must be spent where absolutely needed,” Chavan added.

Inflation, unemployment woes

Several low-income voters, especially informal workers, domestic workers, farmers and fisherfolk, spoke about the introduction of schemes such as Ladki in conjunction with rising inflation, rural distress, and lack of regular employment opportunities. A constant refrain was that the modest financial gain through these schemes is soon offset by high spending on everyday items and services.

Vishnu Laxman Vartha, a 62-year-old farmer from Vire village in Dahanu taluka near Palghar, said that farmers have borne the brunt of rising input costs. “We are not asking for free seeds or free electricity. We simply say: give us a good subsidy on fertilizers and ensure constant electricity supply,” he said.

Sitting on their home’s porch, his younger sister-in-law, Hiroo Chandrakant Vartha, 45, quipped that in remote villages like theirs, getting access to basic facilities and government schemes is a challenge. “This challenge gets compounded when everything from vegetables to vegetable oil is costly,” she added.

Several people from villages near Palghar (including Vire and Ranshet) and near Uran (Hanuman Koliwada (Sheva) and Gavhan Koliwada) told Mint that young men prefer migrating to Mumbai and Navi Mumbai in search of work.

However, concerns over inflation and lack of regular employment resonated in urban areas as well. Ram Kishan Khillare, a 42-year-old construction worker in Navi Mumbai’s Belapur, migrated from his hometown Hingoli decades ago. Every morning, he along with hundreds of others stands at a labour chowk to find work. In a good month, he said, there are 12-14 days of work, at a daily wage of ₹600.

“We have got a one-time safety kit and a household utensil kit from our board. It helps, but it is not critical to our jobs. We need more jobs, regularisation of work and effective medical assistance,” Khillare added.

A survey by MIT-SOG-CSDS-Lokniti (MIT School of Government and Centre for the Study of Developing Societies) published in The Hindu newspaper last month showed that 24% of voters in the state identified unemployment as their primary issue, while 22% cited inflation.

To address unemployment, the state government has launched a Ladka Bhau Yojana under which 10 lakh youths will be trained annually with a monthly stipend of up to ₹10,000. The annual expenditure on this scheme is ₹10,000 crore. The MVA, too, has promised a ₹4,000 monthly allowance to educated youths if it gets voted to power.

Neeraj Hatekar, an economist from Maharashtra, said that unlike loan waivers, direct cash transfer schemes require regular committed expenditure by governments. The MVA has promised a farm loan waiver of up to ₹3 lakh in its manifesto, while the Mahayuti has pledged to increase existing financial assistance to farmers.

Also read: Will Haryana shocker impact Maharashtra elections? Should AAP & Congress unite to win Delhi? 3 key questions answered

“The kind of debt profile that we are in, it all comes down to where the resources are being used. And right now, rural infrastructure should be the priority,” he said, adding that the state has not been able to provide effective basic services such as health and education.

News reports peg Maharashtra’s total debt burden at ₹7.11 trillion while its fiscal deficit has crossed the ₹2 trillion mark. Last month, deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar, who also holds the finance portfolio, justified overruling concerns raised by the state’s finance department.

According to Hatekar, such schemes amount to “official buying of votes” and could only offer marginal political returns as other factors, such as caste, religion, local candidates etc, could override populism.

Electoral stakes

Along with Maharashtra, the Jharkhand assembly election is also being held this month. In that state, too, both the ruling coalition led by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), and the opposition BJP are banking on a slew of populist promises to win. Counting will take place on 23 November in both states. The stakes are high for both the national parties as well as regional players in the two polls.

Sanjay Kumar, political analyst and co-director of Lokniti, a research institute, said that political parties are ‘mistaken’ if they believe that they can win elections only on populist schemes.

“Populist schemes and promises help political parties mobilize voters but they cannot ensure a victory. At the same time, they do no harm either,” said Kumar. “So, it comes down to what is the degree of benefit. I think the benefit is far less compared to what we or political parties generally tend to believe.”

He added that surveys show there is usually a tilt among beneficiaries in favour of ruling parties. “But that does not mean, all of them will vote for incumbents; some also vote for the opposition. Non-beneficiaries voting for incumbents is also sizable,” he added.

In Mumbai, voters are divided over the impact of such policies on their lives and on the election outcome. Anita Navnath Mane, a beneficiary who is a sweeper with the municipal corporation, feels that the Mahayuti government deserves her vote because of the steps they have taken for women. “I am a single mother and the money under Ladki Bahin scheme came just when my daughter fell ill. I could use the money for medical expenses,” she said.

But Sunil Bendre, a 43-year-old auto driver from Bhandup, whose wife is a Ladki beneficiary, said that everyday life for his family in the metropolis is difficult because of how costly things are. “You tell me: ₹1,500 a month comes down to ₹50 a day. What do you get in Mumbai for that amount? Maybe four vada pavs from a cart. That is not even food for one day, for one person,” he said.

Anuja, an independent journalist based in Delhi, writes on politics and policy

Ajit Pawar says there is “absolutely” no chance of him rejoining his uncle Sharad Pawar in the future.
| Photo Credit: PTI

Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar politically broke away from his uncle Sharad Pawar almost a year ago. His claims on the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and its symbol were accepted by the Election Commission but the matter is now with the Supreme Court. He contested as a partner of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Lok Sabha election and could win one seat out of four. This time, in the State Assembly election, Ajit’s party is contesting 55 seats. He believes that the Mahayuti has improved its election position in the last four months and is going to win this election. He spoke to Frontline during his campaign in Marathwada. Excerpts.

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Also Read | In Maharashtra election, it is caste over crops

Before the formation of the BJP in 1980, the Congress dominated Maharashtra’s politics with the formidable support of Marathas, Dalits, Kunbis, tribal people, and Muslims. The appeal of the BJP’s predecessor, the Jana Sangh, was limited to Brahmins and, very nominally, some other castes. In order to break this equation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the ideological parent of the saffron parties, decided to change tack. It brought its ideologue and full-time member Vasantrao Bhagwat to the helm of organisational affairs in the State. Bhagwat, a Brahmin from Ratnagiri district of the Konkan region, was asked to make the BJP a statewide party. Towards this, he introduced the Ma-Dha-Va formula.

Ma-Dha-Va is a Marathi acronym for Mali (gardener), Dhangar (shepherd), and Vanjari (a semi-nomadic caste from Marathwada). Bhagwat understood the crux of the politics of the time: the Marathas, the State’s ruling caste, which accounted for 32 per cent of the population, made up the majority of the Congress vote bank. The BJP had little scope for getting Muslims, Dalits, and tribal people into its fold. What remained were the smaller castes, which had no political representation in the Congress.

Those were the days of the Mandal Commission (its recommendations were submitted in 1980), which laid emphasis on the “Other Backward Classes”. With many smaller communities eyeing OBC status, Bhagwat focussed on the Malis, Dhangars, and Vanjaris, which were the dominant communities in that category. Thus emerged the first generation of BJP leaders in Maharashtra: N.S. Farande (Mali), Anna Dange (Dhangar), and Gopinath Munde (Vanjari).

The BJP’s strategy to consolidate the non-Maratha smaller castes, or OBCs, paid off. It helped the party expand its influence among the Bahujan. The term “Bahujan” was in use a thousand years ago in the Pali language to describe the non-elite classes. In modern India, the social reformer Jyotirao Phule, himself from the Mali community, used it in his path-breaking essay on the history of non-Brahmins. Babasaheb Ambedkar expanded the concept further in his works.

Also Read | Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024: The talking heads

Bhagwat’s outreach gave the BJP, hitherto known as a Brahmin-dominated party, a Bahujan tag. In 2024, following the defeat of the Mahayuti (grand alliance) led by it in the Lok Sabha election held in April-May, and with the Maratha reservation movement emerging as a dominant political issue, the party has returned to the social engineering days of the Ma-Dha-Va formula to save the day.

The Maratha reservation demand

The Maratha reservation demand is not new, but it gained fresh momentum under the leadership of Manoj Jarange-Patil. On October 1, 2023, following a police lathicharge on protesters that Jarange-Patil led in the Jalna district of Marathwada, the agitation for Maratha reservation turned violent for the first time in its 20-year history (“Maratha quota agitation: A cat among the pigeons”, Frontline, published online on November 11, 2023).

The protest by the dominant community of Marathas put pressure on the State government. Jarange-Patil’s demand was to include the Marathas from the Marathwada region in the Kunbi category. The Kunbi community, which is predominant in the Vidarbha region, comes under the OBC category. In a way, Jarange-Patil was demanding OBC status for the Marathas too. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde accepted his demand and announced a committee headed by a retired judge to look into it.

At this point, the government faced a backlash from the OBCs in the State, who were against sharing the space with the Marathas. In late 2023, Chhagan Bhujbal, a Cabinet Minister in the Shinde government, opposed the government decision publicly. He addressed rallies in Marathwada, where the Maratha reservation issue was central to the political discourse. Jarange-Patil’s rallies demanding Kunbi status for Marathas and Bhujbal’s rallies opposing it split the State vertically along caste lines.

The BJP was already in trouble because of careless remarks made by its members ahead of the Lok Sabha election that the party wanted a three-fourths majority in Parliament in order to change the Constitution. This angered Dalits; Muslims were already preparing for tactical voting, and tribal communities were exploring alternatives after incidents of atrocities against them in Manipur and Madhya Pradesh. With the Maratha bloc also turning against it, the Mahayuti won only 17 seats in Maharashtra as against the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) 31. This prompted the BJP to introspect.

Interestingly, the plot thickened soon after the Lok Sabha election results were announced when a protest by Lakshman Hake and Navnath Waghmare on June 13 over the dilution of the OBC quota grabbed the headlines. The protest venue was Vadi Godri village in Ambad tehsil of Jalna district, barely 4 km from Jarange-Patil’s village and his protest venue at Antarvali Sarathi.

Hake was a little-known OBC leader who contested the Lok Sabha election from the Madha constituency and secured just 5,134 votes. He comes from the Dhangar community, a large section of which has been demanding reservation under the Scheduled Tribes category. He highlighted a promise made by the BJP in 2014 to give the community reservation under the ST status if it came to power. Hake’s protest against the inclusion of Marathas in the Kunbi category saying that it will reduce the existing share of OBCs resonated among members of the latter.

The Lok Sabha results came as a shocker not just to the Mahayuti, which won just one of the eight seats in the Marathwada region, but to the OBCs too. Two OBC leaders, Mahadev Jankar of the Dhangar community and Pankaja Munde of the Vanjari community, lost the elections from Parbhani and Beed, respectively. In this context, Hake’s protest became immediately popular among OBC youth. Over the past three months, a perception has been created that Hake has consolidated OBC support across the State.

Hake has asked his supporters to defeat the “wrong candidates”, specifically naming Rajesh Tope and Rohit Pawar, both MLAs of the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) faction, which is a constituent of the MVA along with the Congress and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena faction.

Meanwhile, in the Maratha camp, Jarange-Patil, who had refused to contest the Lok Sabha election on the grounds that he would not enter electoral politics, was under pressure to field candidates for the Assembly election. He held talks with Muslim leaders, mainly the Islamic scholar Sajjad Nomani, with a view to fielding joint candidates in a few seats. But, by the morning of November 4, Jarange Patil seemed to realise that by doing so he would be dividing the Maratha vote, which would ultimately help the BJP. He decided not to contest the election and asked his supporters “to vote for anyone of their choice while keeping the community’s interests in mind”.

A clear picture emerges

From the outset, Jarange-Patil was seen as a front for the NCP (Sharad Pawar). Many BJP MLCs such as Pravin Darekar, Sadabhau Khot, and Prasad Lad had called him a mask for Pawar. The tallest Maratha leader in the State, Pawar was widely believed to be the hand behind the Maratha movement. However, with Jarange-Patil appealing to his supporters to defeat the BJP’s candidates and Hake asking his followers to defeat Pawar’s candidates, the picture is beginning to get clearer in Maharashtra.

Given the widespread opinion that a Jat-versus-non-Jat binary helped the BJP retain Haryana for a third consecutive time in the recently held Assembly election, it seems likely that the Maharashtra election is being worked along the same lines.

The BJP has tasted success with its social engineering formula on many occasions. In 2016, when Devendra Fadnavis was Chief Minister, the Maratha community hit the streets in large numbers over the sexual abuse of a Maratha girl from Ahmednagar (now Ahilya Nagar) district. The community held 52 rallies across the State, which were seen as attempts by the opposition parties to stir public sentiment against the BJP. At that time too the BJP’s strategy of consolidating non-Maratha Hindu votes in the State paid off. Within four months, in the local body elections (2016-17), the BJP emerged a clear winner, securing almost 200 municipal councils of 320 and 21 municipalities of 26.

Also Read | This battle is for the soul of Maharashtra: Balasaheb Thorat

Political observers, however, point to one difference between 2017 and 2024. Jaydeo Dole, a senior journalist from Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, said: “In 2017, the BJP’s novelty factor under Prime Minister Modi was intact. Also, Dalits and tribal people were not a part of the anti-BJP consolidation at that time. This time, Dalits, Muslims, and tribal people are strongly against the BJP. That is why the 2017 non-Maratha consolidation formula is no longer useful for the BJP.”

According to the 1931 Census, Marathas account for 32 per cent of the State’s population, with Dalits at 14 per cent, Muslims at 11.54 per cent, and tribal communities at 9.35 per cent. Although OBC leaders claim that they constitute 54 per cent of the population, there is no authentic data to substantiate this. However, it is clear that if the Maratha–Muslim–Dalit–Tribal consolidation takes place, accounting for more than 60 per cent of the population, any counter-consolidation will not work.

Recognising this, the BJP has focussed on consolidating OBCs along non-Maratha lines while still trying to get a big chunk of the Maratha vote. To achieve this, it has deployed its Maratha leaders to take aggressive stands on religious lines. Leaders such as Nitesh Rane and Pravin Darekar have been vocal on right-wing Hindutva issues, aiming to appeal to religious sentiments.

Another shrewd move by the BJP is to deploy its alliance partners strategically. Chief Minister Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, both Marathas, are campaigning in every constituency where the party has a Maratha candidate. Of the 152 seats the saffron party is contesting, it has given an almost equal number to OBCs (46) and Marathas (44), which shows its intent to avoid antagonising the Maratha community while appealing to the OBCs.

Maharashtra has around 100 Assembly seats where Maratha voters constitute 25 to 40 per cent, 40 constituencies where Kunbi voters constitute 20 to 30 per cent, and around 35 constituencies where non-Kunbi OBC voters make up 20 to 30 per cent. Polarisation along caste lines will matter in these 170 Assembly constituencies, a significant segment of the total 288 Assembly seats. The outcome of this election will depend solely on which caste consolidation strategy proves successful this time.

 Shiv Sena supporters during the nomination filing rally of party candidate Mahendra Thorve for the Assembly election.
| Photo Credit: PTI

The electorally crucial State of Maharashtra will elect Members to its Legislative Assembly later this month. An electorate of 9.59 crore voters (4.95 crore men and 4.64 crore women) will decide the fate of candidates across 288 constituencies. Nearly 20 lakh people are first-time voters. The ruling Mahayuti is pitted against the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

The split within the Shiv Sena party (into the Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde factions) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) (into the Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar factions)—the two major regional parties—has increased the number of key political players to six. This election will determine which faction of these parties best represents the cadre. The focus areas for the election are progressive identity, the legacy of social justice politics, shifting political dynamics, and declining social indicators.

In the recent Lok Sabha election, the MVA, consisting of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar), and the Congress, secured 31 of the 48 seats while the BJP-led Mahayuti won only 17. This was attributed to the Maratha reservation issue (the Maratha community, which accounts for 30 percent of the State’s population, has been agitating for reservation for over a year). This, along with the agricultural crisis, the falling prices of onion, cotton, and soyabean, and subnationalism will be crucial factors in this election.

Other factors include intensifying ideological battles and the resurgence of erstwhile dominant political families. However, the battle is fragmented across the six major parties in the two opposing coalitions. The outcome will be seen in the weeks to come. In this backdrop, Frontline is on the battleground talking to the who’s who of Maharashtra politics to understand the pulse on the ground. Our correspondent Amey Tirodkar is giving you the views from the ground as well as literally from above (he boarded a chopper to talk to veteran Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat). Here’s a list of interviews we did recently.

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In a wide-ranging interview with Frontline, Sunil Tatkare, the Nationalist Congress Party’s (NCP) Maharashtra unit chief and a close confidant of Deputy Chief Minister and party leader Ajit Pawar, forecasts a dramatic reversal of his alliance’s fortunes in the upcoming Assembly election. Despite the Mahayuti’s (as the National Democratic Alliance is known in Maharashtra) disappointing performance in the recent Lok Sabha election, where the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP alliance secured only 17 seats compared to the rival Maha Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) 31, Tatkare argues that key government initiatives and shifting political narratives have transformed Maharashtra’s electoral landscape.

The veteran politician, who defected from Sharad Pawar’s camp, dismisses concerns about Maratha reservations and industrial exodus while expressing confidence in securing an “absolute majority” through improved vote transfer between alliance partners and strategic regional consolidation. His optimism, however, will soon be tested as Maharashtra prepares for a crucial electoral battle that pits former allies against each other, most notably in Baramati’s high-stakes “Pawar versus Pawar” contest. Excerpts:

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In this candid conversation with Frontline, Ashish Shelar, the Mumbai BJP chief and former Minister, discusses his party’s strategy and vision for the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly election. Shelar discusses several contentious issues, including the BJP’s relationship with former ally Uddhav Thackeray, the controversial Dharavi redevelopment project, and the party’s electoral prospects in Mumbai’s 36 Assembly seats. Shelar articulates the BJP’s development-focussed agenda while addressing challenges from the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance.

The conversation also touches on sensitive issues such as religious polarisation and the changing political dynamics in Maharashtra’s capital city. Shelar defends his party’s positions while critiquing the leadership and performance of former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, particularly regarding Mumbai’s infrastructure development. Edited excerpts:

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Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde, Deputy CMs Ajit Pawar and Devendra Fadnavis during the press conference where Mahayuti leaders presented the ‘report card’ of their work in Mumbai. October 16, 2024.
| Photo Credit: EMMANUAL YOGINI

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Maharashtra, known locally as Mahayuti, consists of three major partners: the BJP, Shiv Sena (led by Eknath Shinde), and Ajit Pawar’s faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Despite commanding the support of 210 MLAs out of 288 in the Assembly, the Mahayuti leaders’ confidence was shaken on June 4. In the Lok Sabha election, they managed to win only 17 out of 48 seats in the State. The opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA), operating with limited resources and without strong or influential leaders, secured 30 seats, and one independent candidate later pledged support to the Congress, bringing their total to 31. 

This result was a warning bell for Mahayuti. Recognising that maintaining “business as usual” could lead to similar results in the Assembly election, the leaders initiated a micro-analysis of the results. This detailed examination revealed a more nuanced picture beyond the headline figures.

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First, the Assembly-wise leads were very close. The MVA, despite winning 31 seats, was leading with only 154 seats. Whereas the Mahayuti was leading with 127 seats. In the Assembly of 288, where the halfway mark is 144, the lead on 154 seats was not strong. Mahayuti leaders started working on these seats. Here they found that 60 seats out of 154 were coming from the cotton, soyabean and onion belt. As prices of these agriculture produces crashed, the anger reflected in the Lok Sabha election results. So, to pacify the furious farmers, the NDA came up with a three-point strategy. In an additional State budget presented on June 28, the government decided to waive electricity bills of 44 lakh farmers. Farmers using 7.5 horsepower pump will not get the electricity bills. In Vidarbha and Marathwada, where most farmers use 5 hp pumps, this was a big announcement.

The second announcement regarding farmers came in September. Soyabean and cotton farmers were agitating against the fall in prices. So, they were given Rs.5,000 per hectareto bridge the gap between the MSP and market price. Almost 65 lakh farmers received Rs.2500 crore in this scheme. For onion farmers, export duty was removed by the Central government. This is expected to increase onion prices next season.

NDA also faced a backlash in Lok Sabha for allegedly compromising Maharashtra’s interests and favouring Gujarat. The proposed mega manufacturing projects such as a pharma hub, Foxconn-Vedanta’s semiconductor plant, was shifted out of Maharashtra. Many other industries such as automobiles were already relocating their plants from Pune to Gujarat.

Understanding the need to address this, the State government ran a mega show. They invited Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum (WEF) to Mumbai. Here, the Maharashtra government signed an MoU with WEF to make the Mumbai Metropolitan Region’s economy worth $300 billion. Schwab also promised to help Mumbai grow as a financial centre to international levels. Before this, in July, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had visited Mumbai. He said he wanted Mumbai to be the centre of global financial activity. All these were attempts to wipe out the anti-Maharashtra image of BJP from the minds of the State’s voters.

A hat-tip to Marathi

Marathi voters have for long also appealed for a classical status accorded to the Marathi language. The proposal was submitted to the Center in 2013. Since then, the demand has been in cold storage. But ahead of the State Assembly election, the Union government accepted the proposal and granted the language classical status. This would help BJP, especially in its campaign against Uddhav Thackeray.

Women voters opposed the Modi-led government in the Lok Sabha. To address this, the State government came up with a most ambitious ‘Ladki Bahin’ scheme. Through this, Rs.1,500 per month is being given to 1.85 crore women across the State. Maharashtra has 4.6 crore women voters: this scheme covers almost 40 per cent of them. Mahayuti leaders feel that this scheme would be the game-changer in the upcoming Assembly election. It is also seen that the opposition was confused to react on the scheme from day one. Now there is pressure on the opposition to announce something similar to women voters. The State government also urged the Centre to include 12 smaller castes into Other Backward Classes.

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After Lok Sabha results, the State government faced two major instances of public outrage. One was the protest against the Badlapur school girls sexual abuse case. The second was over the falling of Shivaji’s statue in Malwan. The State government has issued a tender to build a bigger statue on the same place. Modi himself apologised for the incident.

The major challenge the BJP faced in the Lok Sabha was the Maratha reservation protest. It cost the BJP the entire region of Marathwada. The party has since adopted a two-pronged strategy. BJP leaders have gone aggressive against Manoj Jarange Patil, a leader of the Maratha reservation protest. At the same time, the party has reportedly provided all resources to the OBC protest in the State. Laxman Hake, the leader of the OBC community, protested the inclusion of the Maratha community in the OBC category. So, efforts to consolidate all non-Maratha Hindu communities are on.

The election was very close in terms of the total votes and the vote share. MVA’s vote share in the Lok Sabha election was 43.71 per cent, while Mahayuti’s was 43.55 per cent. The votes cast for the MVA was 2,50,15,819, and 2,48,12,627 for Mahayuti. The micro-managed strategies and the huge resources being used could indeed tilt the balance in favour of Mahayuti, and the coming month will show whether these calculated moves can transform their 17-seat Lok Sabha performance into a decisive Assembly victory, or if the MVA’s unexpected surge will continue.