“This could mark a turning point in Maharashtra’s social discourse,” noted political analyst Padmabhushan Deshpande. Politicians previously invoked King Shahu, Mahatma Phule, and Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar to align with society’s progressive undertones. This victory, achieved through an openly communal campaign, could transform Maharashtra. Just as Madhya Pradesh became a laboratory for Hindutva politics, Maharashtra might follow suit.”

The Maratha reservation protest emerged as another crucial factor in the electoral discourse. While this issue cost Mahayuti 12 constituencies in the Lok Sabha election, and despite Maratha protest leader Manoj Jarange-Patil’s call to vote against the alliance, the BJP successfully countered it by mobilising non-Maratha Hindu voters. The party deployed what Frontline termed the “Ma-Dha-Va formula”—consolidating Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjari communities.

The Mahayuti’s victory raises fresh questions about Maharashtra’s political future. Having campaigned aggressively as “BJP-led Mahayuti”, the party now faces a crucial decision: installing its own leader as Chief Minister or retaining Eknath Shinde. With local body elections approaching, including the prestigious Mumbai contest, the BJP might temporarily keep Shinde as Chief Minister. If the BJP claims the top post, Shinde’s political future—whether in Delhi or State politics—becomes critical for future alignments. Devendra Fadnavis maintains that there is no conflict, saying, “Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar, and BJP high command will decide the CM post unanimously.”

For the opposition, particularly Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) and NCP (Sharad Pawar), challenges lie in the days ahead. They face an existential crisis, struggling to keep their flock together against the BJP’s aggressive politics. The Congress must rebuild its organisation and nurture new leadership in Maharashtra. Beyond State politics, these results could weaken the INDIA bloc and undermine Congress’ key campaign issues like constitutional protection and caste census.

Beyond numbers

The MVA’s defeat runs deeper than numbers. Several prominent leaders lost their seats: Congress veteran Balasaheb Thorat, a nine-time contestant and chief ministerial aspirant; Ruturaj Patil, nephew of Congress strongman Satej Patil from Kolhapur South; former Health Minister Rajesh Tope in Ambad; and Dhiraj Deshmukh, son of late Vilasrao Deshmukh, in Latur Rural. However, Rohit Pawar from NCP (Sharad Pawar) won his seat in Karjat Jamkhed. Meanwhile, Mahayuti leaders scored significant victories: Eknath Shinde in Kopari Pachpakhadi, Devendra Fadnavis in Nagpur Southwest, Ajit Pawar in Baramati, and several others, including the BJP’s Sambhaji Nilangekar, Jaykumar Rawal, key Shinde Sena figures, and NCP leaders aligned with Ajit Pawar.

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The election results have created another predicament for MVA: the Leader of the Opposition post. Parliamentary rules require an opposition party to have at least 10 per cent of the house strength—28 seats in Maharashtra’s 288-Member Assembly—to claim this position. Though Shiv Sena (UBT) emerged as MVA’s largest party, it won only 20 seats. Consequently, the Assembly might function without a Leader of Opposition. Deputy Chief Minister Fadnavis’s statement (“We will respect the opposition despite its numbers”) suggests the ruling alliance is not inclined to make concessions on this issue.

Maharashtra’s politics since 2019 has been marked by unprecedented volatility and instability, with political discourse hitting new lows. The 2024 results, by delivering a clear majority to the Mahayuti, end speculation about horse-trading and weak government formation. This decisive mandate carries expectations: Mahayuti must now use its political capital to serve Maharashtra’s interests, the very reason voters entrusted them with power.