Maharashtra Assembly election – TheNewsHub

Women voters: New political powerhouse?

Aseem — Wed, 11 Dec 2024 04:56:00 +0000

The recent electoral outcomes in Jharkhand and Maharashtra, two very different geographical terrains, reveal three common factors. First, in both States the incumbent alliances won by a huge margin. Second, despite poor performances in the Lok Sabha election held six months earlier, the ruling alliances in both States staged a dramatic recovery in the Assembly elections. Third, they benefited significantly from the implementation of women-centric direct cash transfer schemes, particularly the Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana offering Rs.1,000 a month in Jharkhand and the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana providing Rs.1,500 a month in Maharashtra.

Significantly, Jharkhand and Maharashtra are not the first States to implement cash transfer schemes for women. It started in West Bengal in 2021, just a few months before the Assembly election. In the 2023 Karnataka election, the Congress promised a similar scheme called the Gruha Lakshmi Scheme. The party that promised or implemented the scheme first reaped the electoral benefits.

Also Read | The myth of the ‘women vote bank’

Does this mean that women vote as a distinct electoral constituency? Do women vote more for parties that deliver or promise economic incentives specifically for them? There are indications that unlike in the past, financial assistance has helped mobilise women politically, with large-scale cash transfers or other women-centric schemes enabling them to discuss governance at home and in society.

The history of women’s participation in elections suggests three trends. First, their participation has increased tremendously. The voter turnout of men and women is now almost equal, after continuously showing a double-digit gap in the initial few decades of Independence.

At a polling booth in Sarauli village of Ghaziabad constituency in Uttar Pradesh in April 2019. Since 2014, the women’s turnout has been above 65 per cent.
| Photo Credit:
MOORTHY RV

Second, although their participation has increased, women voters’ choices have not differed significantly from that of their male counterparts. In other words, the voting patterns of women have largely been the same as that of their male counterparts.

Third, although women’s participation has increased significantly, this change has been driven from the top and not the bottom. This means that, rather than women making specific demands of political parties, the parties themselves have been wooing them with economic incentives.

Frontline addresses these three basic questions and traces how the woman voter has emerged as a mobilising factor in elections across India.

Electoral participation

In the past two Lok Sabha elections, the male and female turnout was equal; however, the journey to reach this point has been long. In the 1957 Lok Sabha election, only 39 per cent of women voted compared with 56 per cent of men. In 2024, the turnout of both men and women had risen to 66 per cent (see Chart 1). Since 1962, the male turnout has been continuously above 60 per cent, but the female turnout did not surpass the 60 per cent mark until the 1998 Lok Sabha election.

Since 2014, the women’s turnout has been above 65 per cent. Although women’s participation has steadily increased over the years, there have been a few occasions when it increased significantly: 1977, 1984, 1998, and 2014. Except in 1984, when the sympathy wave following the death of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi played a role, the incumbent party has lost power in all other occasions.

Women’s mobilisation in the Indian electoral system has been a top-down phenomenon, with them responding to political leaders and parties making promises or decisions in favour of women; women have not made any aggressive demands of the state. In the 1970s and 1980s, a period of rights-based movements across the world, the major demand from women in India was for suraksha (safety) from crimes such as rape. As such, for a long time, politicians and parties focussed on public safety to win women over. Parties such as the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh focussed on law and order issues to gain women’s support.

In 2007, Nitish Kumar launched the Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojana providing free bicycles to every girl child in class IX to prevent them from dropping out of school after a certain age. In the picture, beneficiaries of the scheme on the outskirts of Patna in 2018.
| Photo Credit:
RANJEET KUMAR

From 2005 to 2020, State and Central governments began to prioritise women’s education and health along with safety. Leaders such as M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) and Jayalalithaa (Tamil Nadu), Nitish Kumar (Bihar), Mamata Banerjee (West Bengal), and Shivraj Singh Chouhan (Madhya Pradesh) focussed on increasing the enrolment of girls in schools and on women’s health, especially in reducing mortality among girl children. In 1982, as Chief Minister, MGR targeted mothers by promising nutrition in schools and encouraging them to enroll their children. This he did by extending the noon-meal scheme that had existed in some form since the 1920s to cover children in the age group of 2-5 years in anganwadis and those aged 5-9 years in primary schools in rural areas.

Bihar, Odisha, and West Bengal followed suit and implemented many schemes to promote the girl child and increase their enrolment in schools. In 2007, Nitish Kumar launched the Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojana providing free bicycles to every girl child in class IX to prevent girl students from dropping out of school after a certain age.

Nitish Kumar went on to launch the Mukhyamantri Kanya Utthan Yojana in 2018 providing Rs.1,000 to every girl completing class XII, Rs.50,000 upon graduation, and Rs.2,000 for sanitary napkins annually. He also banned the use of alcohol in Bihar, which helped him win the election. In the tightly contested Assembly election in 2020, it was women voters who helped him overcome a huge anti-incumbency wave.

A survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in 2020 shows that although the Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal, had a 1 percentage point lead over the Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) among men, Nitish Kumar had a 2 percentage point lead among women voters. Another significant data point suggests that the Mahagathbandhan had a 6 percentage point edge among youths (aged 18-29 years), while the NDA had a 4 percentage point edge among young women. According to a news report, there was a 5 percentage point lead for the NDA among women aged 30-39 years (The Indian Express, November 19, 2020).

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee at an event to mark 10 years of Kanyashree Prakalpa, a flagship scheme of the Trinamool Congress government for girl empowerment.
| Photo Credit:
DEBASISH BHADURI

Similarly, in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee launched schemes such as the Kanyashree Prakalpa (2013), the Rupashree Prakalpa (2018), and the Lakshmir Bhandar (2021) targeting women voters. In the 2021 Assembly election, women supported Mamata overwhelmingly; the BJP could not depose the Trinamool government despite its good performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The CSDS post-election data reveal that the Trinamool Congress had a 13 percentage point lead over the BJP among women. Even in the 2021 election, 4 per cent more women voted for the Trinamool than men.

At the national level, the Narendra Modi government also launched schemes such as the Pradhan Mantri Jan-Dhan Yojana (2014), the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (2016), and the Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (2017) to assist and empower women.

Significantly, the focus of political parties in the past few years has shifted from safety and schooling to financial assistance schemes. The main trigger for the BJP to turn its attention to financial assistance was the NYAY (Nyuntam Aay Yojana) schemes the Congress party promised in the 2019 Lok Sabha election to provide poor households with financial assistance of Rs.72,000 annually.

Highlights

Women’s electoral participation has increased significantly, with voter turnout now almost equal to that of men. In some States, women even outnumber men at polling booths, reflecting a steady rise in their engagement with electoral democracy.
Political parties have increasingly used women-centric welfare schemes to mobilise women voters. The Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana in Jharkhand and the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana in Maharashtra helped the incumbent governments reap electoral benefits.
Increased participation of women in electoral politics signals anew democratic upsurge, which will shift the political discourse from being male-dominated to being more equitable. However, women have to begin to vote on the pressing issues that concern them for real woman-oriented polity.

It was the Jan-Dhan scheme that enabled even the poor to open bank accounts with minimum requirements, thus paving the way for large-scale cash transfers by the government. In the past, incentives or subsidies were common strategies. For instance, Jayalalithaa was renowned for announcing schemes during election campaigns, like free mixer grinders or a 50 per cent subsidy for buying mopeds, which helped her garner significant electoral support from women.

From 2019 onwards, across parties, governments have increasingly announced direct cash transfers. The BJP, which had proclaimed that it was reluctant to increase the economic burden on the exchequer, was the first to launch such schemes. Just a few months before the 2019 Lok Sabha election, Modi announced the Kisan Samman Nidhi providing financial assistance to farmers. Later, the BJP-led government in Haryana announced the Berojgari Bhatta Yojana providing an unemployment allowance to educated women—a monthly allowance of Rs.1,500 for graduates and Rs.3,000 for postgraduates.

Why target women?

In 1962, women made up only 40 per cent of the total voters. Even in the 1998 Lok Sabha election, this rose to 45 per cent. The gender gap was in double digits (10 per cent) until 2004, but since 2009 it has changed significantly, and the gap has narrowed steadily. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the gap was reduced to just 1 per cent (see Chart 2).

Chart 2 suggests that not only women’s turnout during elections but also women’s participation in elections has increased significantly in the past two decades, bringing their numbers close to that of men. Expectedly, the growth rate of women voters in recent years has surpassed that of men. In the last two Lok Sabha elections, the growth rate of women was 2 percentage points more than men (see Chart 3).

Overall, there has been an increase in enrolment in electoral rolls, the growth rate of women voters, and their turnout. In some States, women have outnumbered men in polling booths. These three data points suggest that women are more active during elections than in the past. The drivers of this change could be many: increased women’s representation at local levels of governance, initiatives such as SVEEP (Systematic Voter’s Education and Electoral Participation) led by the Election Commission of India, and the transactional benefits inherent in the process. All these appear to have attracted more women to participate in electoral democracy.

Since women’s share is almost half of the total electorate, a few percentage points inclination towards any political party/alliance could lead to a significant change in the electoral outcome.

Conclusion

As their numbers increase, the influence of women voters is likely to grow significantly. The results suggest that women prioritise transactional benefits and do not carry any ideological burden. However, it would be a mistake to interpret this to mean they have no interest in the politics of identity. They seem to respond positively to cash benefits, which is why welfare schemes have yielded electoral dividends for parties.

In India’s highly patriarchal society, any kind of direct cash transfer empowers women. And the digitisation measures have enabled all political parties to reach women beneficiaries directly, without the help of male intermediaries.

In the 2015 Bihar Assembly election, for instance, this writer met a female senior citizen in Saharsha who said she would vote for Nitish Kumar as he had provided Rs.500 a month as old-age pension. This meant, she said, that she did not have to depend on her son to eat bari (fried savoury).

Also Read | Editor’s Note: The Machiavellian manipulation of mahila schemes

In another instance, during this writer’s fieldwork in the 2024 Jharkhand Assembly election, a woman in her early 30s said she had voted for Modi in the Lok Sabha election as she had eaten Modi ka ration (5 kg free grain) but that in the Assembly election she would vote for Hemant Soren, who had delivered Rs.1,000 under the Maiya Samman scheme.

Jayalalithaa introduced schemes aimed at women like free mixer-grinders and 50 per cent subsidy for buying mopeds. In picture, a beneficiary with a moped given by the State government.
| Photo Credit:
SATHYAMOORTHY M

Any benefit that targets women empowers them economically, politically, and socially. The 73rd Constitutional Amendment gave one-third (in some places 50 per cent) reservation for women in panchayats, the one-third reservation in jobs (for example, Bihar), and now the cash transfer schemes have empowered women in several, often undocumented, ways. These have given women a new yardstick with which to evaluate parties rather than fall back on communal and identity-based sentiments. However, it is still not clear whether they vote as a bloc or along traditional caste and community lines.

The caveat is that increased cash transfers will lead to an increased financial burden on the exchequer, with all parties trying to up the ante. This is not a long-term sustainable plan and will invariably benefit the incumbent government, which holds the purse strings, the most.

Of course, the larger trend—that of increased participation of women in electoral politics—signals a new democratic upsurge, which will shift the political discourse from being male-dominated to being more equitable. However, it is only when women begin to vote on the pressing issues that concern them that we will see a real woman-oriented polity.

Ashish Ranjan is an election researcher and co-founder of the Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies (DALES).

Editor’s Note: The Machiavellian manipulation of mahila schemes

Aseem — Tue, 10 Dec 2024 17:16:47 +0000

Women form 50 per cent of the population and persuading them to vote, if with cash, shifts the balance.
| Photo Credit: Utpal Sarkar/ANI

Earlier this year, LibTech, a grouping of academics and activists, published numbers that showed the deletion of over 39 lakh registered workers from the rolls of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS). The trend of deletions began around 2022, when the government started pushing the Aadhaar Based Payment System, which lays down stringent conditions of eligibility: Aadhaar cards linked to job cards, identical names on both, bank accounts seeded with Aadhaar, and so on.

These conditions have forced several workers, a large number of them women, out of the scheme. The Centre has also steadily lowered the budget for MGNREGS (it is about 1.8 per cent of the total budget now) and governments have steadily failed to pay wages on time. Moreover, the unemployment allowance mandated by law for workers who do not get MGNREGS jobs is not paid in a vast majority of cases. This scenario continues despite the increased pressure on MGNREGS given the persistent high unemployment rates and the pandemic-driven reverse migration.

It is, therefore, particularly depressing to be told that the Maharashtra and Jharkhand Assembly elections might have been won largely on the back of a Rs.1,500 and Rs.1,000 monthly payout to women voters. Notice that there appear to be no conditions attached nor payment delays for any election-related dole. While the immediate benefits of a direct cash transfer to women are obvious, the overall cynicism behind such schemes becomes painfully obvious through statistics such as those put out by LibTech.

Only a Pollyanna would imagine that the myriad aggressively marketed mahila schemes today have anything to do with real women’s empowerment. Or that they signal women getting a bigger say in the country’s polity. They are merely a Machiavellian use of demographics—women form 50 per cent of the population and persuading them to vote, if with cash, shifts the balance.

The announcement of such schemes by the Congress in Karnataka or the DMK in Tamil Nadu is less surprising because the social welfare manifestos of these political parties have never been a secret. (How efficient they are or how free of corruption is a different discussion.) But one was told repeatedly by fond financial columnists that the BJP holds no truck with social welfare payouts. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi called them “revdi”, it was rapturously broadcast across television channels and broadsheets. Now, with absolutely no irony, these voices attribute the BJP-led Mahayuti’s win in Maharashtra to the masterstroke of a cash grant.

In February 2022, I wrote in The Hindu about Priyanka Gandhi’s Women’s Manifesto launched for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. The Congress lost badly, but the manifesto was astonishingly progressive. It spoke of reservations for women as bus drivers, ration shop owners, and constables; of mahila chaupals; of suspending police personnel who don’t register complaints within 10 days. Even the promise of smartphones for girls in Class 12 was based on the fact that these luxuries are usually reserved for sons. It was a women-centric manifesto, which foregrounded education, employment, empowerment, and gender justice. Only when an election is won on the back of such a manifesto can we claim that women have begun to own democracy.

But when a political party that denounces feminism and divorce as “Western” notions, believes marital rape is fiction, and whose IT cell has a free pass to viciously target women uses a cash grant to woo female voters, it would be a great delusion to misread it as anything but opportunistic.

Writing in 2022, I envisaged the Congress women’s manifesto presaging a time when women might consolidate as a progressive vote bank. It is safe to say that it has not happened yet.

How BJP became the dominant political force in Maharashtra, replacing Congress

Aseem — Mon, 09 Dec 2024 11:53:04 +0000

The verdict in favour of the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in the Maharashtra Assembly election has not only surprised voters and observers but even seasoned political analysts and politicians by the sheer scale of its victory. The BJP and its alliance partners, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and the Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar), got incredible strike rates: BJP with 132 Assembly seats had a strike rate of 85 per cent; Eknath Shinde’s party with 57 seats had a strike rate of 72 per cent, while Ajit Pawar’s party with 41 Assembly seats had a strike rate of 69 per cent.

Much of the credit has been attributed to popular welfare distribution schemes such as Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin YojanaandKisan Samman Nidhi on the one hand, and careful management and consolidation of OBC voters by the Mahayuti against the uproar of the Maratha reservation issue on the other, and rightly so.

However, in this article, we explain the rise of the BJP in Maharashtra, from what some scholars have described as its once “shaky dominance”, to a stage of more consolidated dominance. Using long-term electoral data, we argue that the BJP in Maharashtra has now completely replaced the Congress as the dominant party, and by appropriating its allies under the umbrella of Hindutva ideology, it has achieved hegemonic domination wherein any oppositional politics in the State will have to directly counter the BJP in the ideological and political space. This is a big step by the party towards achieving its goal of shat pratishat bhajap (100 per cent BJP) in Maharashtra.

The BJP, which got 7 per cent votes in the 1985 Assembly election has now got more than 25 per cent in the last three Assembly elections.

In the 2014 Assembly election, despite contesting alone, the BJP got 28 per cent votes, the highest for the party so far. In 2024, the BJP received 27 per cent of the total votes, but their vote share in the seats contested was 52 per cent, the highest for any political party in the State in the last four decades.

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Before we explore the BJP’s new dominance, let us understand the earlier dominant party that it has marginalised. Several scholars, as for instance, the political scientist Rajni Kothari, had categorised Maharashtra as one of the few States that represented the dominance of the Congress “system”. It was this “system,” which included the entrenchment and accommodation of political elites in the State, that allowed the Congress to continue its grip on power in Maharashtra even when it faced organisational crises across the country.

In an important recent book, The Last Fortress of Congress Dominance: Maharashtra Since the 1990s, political scientists Suhas Palshikar and Rajeshwari Deshpande attribute several reasons for the dominance—the entry of non-Brahmin masses and leaders of the non-Brahmin movement into the party; accommodation of district-level aspirants in the power structure of government and/or party; carefully organised electoral strategies; capacity to attract workers and leaders from outside the party; introduction of policies that balanced welfare claims and the interests of entrenched social sections; Bahujan Samaj ideology that facilitated the party’s political-economic domination to mix with people’s democratic aspirations and the compulsions of competitive politics.

The 1985 Assembly election is crucial to understand the Congress dominance: it was the year it received around 44 per cent of votes. It was also the last election when it won more than 100 Assembly seats. The party’s withering started in the post-1985 phase, recovering partially in 2004, but since then the party has not come close to, or crossed, 40 per cent. Except in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, when the Congress received more than 40 per cent votes in the seats it contested. Contrary to this, the BJP vote in seats contested has consistently grown since 2014, crossing the 50 per cent mark in 2024. Even in the 2019 Assembly election, it had got 45 per cent, and this time it managed to pull in an additional 7 per cent. With 122 seats in 2014, 105 in 2019, and 132 in 2024, the BJP has achieved the remarkable feat of crossing the 100-seat mark in three successive elections.

One can see some similarities and differences in the way the BJP has used the pathways to power that had earlier helped the Congress establish its dominance in the State.

The BJP’s emergence from its shopkeepers, dominant-caste, urban-centric vote base to a party that now has a pan-Maharashtra presence with a broad cross-caste coalition is important to understand. Two factors have contributed immensely to this nationally—the politics of Hindutva and the politics of consolidation of non-dominant OBCs. Vasantrao Bhagwat came up with the Ma-Dha-Va (Mali-Dhangar-Vanjari) formula to mobilise the non-dominant OBC communities in a State where Marathas had been the dominant political force for the longest time. This gave rise to a new BJP leadership in the State in the form of Gopinath Munde, and Pramod Mahajan, who were able to tackle the dominant Maratha leadership in the State.

Along with one of its most stable alliance partners in the form of the undivided Shiv Sena, the BJP was able to promote the politics of Hindutva to increase its foothold in State politics and expand electorally even in rural areas. The expansion into the hinterlands that Shiv Sena enjoyed in Marathwada and the BJP enjoyed in North Maharashtra and Vidarbha canboth be attributed to the promotion of the Hindutva ideology. In the 2024 Assembly election, the BJP has gained significantly in its old bastion, North Maharashtra and Vidarbha.

What is remarkable is the BJP’s double-digit jump in western Maharashtra, which was the bastion of Sharad Pawar. The alliance with Ajit Pawar helped to achieve this. In Marathwada, the BJP gained narrowly, but even that is significant because it is the region of the Maratha reservation movement, which had harmed the BJP in the Lok Sabha election. In the Assembly election, the BJP managed to get close to half the total votes polled in the seats contested.

The electoral success of the Hindutva ideology marks a clear distinction between the dominance of the Congress and that of the BJP. The Congress dominance was centred around the Bahujan Samaj ideology—propagated by stalwart leader Yashwantrao Chavan, who is seen as the most important Congress leader of modern Maharashtra, and it essentially represented a broad social alliance between Dalits, Muslims, Kunbis (DMK) in some regions and Maratha-Adivasi-Muslim (MAMU) in other regions. This broad social coalition was forged on the basis of opposition to the Brahmin community, emerging as it did from the non-Brahmin ideological basis. In the case of the BJP, however, given the ideological basis of Hindutva, the social coalition that includes Hindu Dalits, OBCs, Brahmins and the dominant caste of Marathas, it excludes Muslims and Adivasis, who are still voting in large numbers for the Congress.

Considering that there might be parallel efforts on the sidelines by the RSS to reach out and co-opt the Adivasis into its ideological framework, the real exclusion in that case seems to be that of the Muslims. In the past three Assembly elections since 2014, in its dominant phase, the BJP has not fielded a single Muslim candidate. In a State where Muslims consist of 12 per cent of the total population, this is a matter of concern. The marginalisation of this religious community in State politics is evident from the fact that the overall representation of Muslim MLAs in the State Assembly has also been on the decline, despite the entry of parties such as All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). Any further marginalisation of oppositional politics might also mean that the representation of Muslims in Maharashtra politics falls lower than what it already is.

The role of welfare schemes and strategic redistribution of government resources in the BJP’s rise has drawn a lot of attention. Whether the Jal-Yukt Shivir Yojana in drought-affected regions between 2014 and 2019 or the Ladki Bahin Yojana in 2024, the BJP has been able to use welfare distribution in a highly efficient manner to mobilise electoral support. The role of technology in direct benefit transfers and a centralised distribution system has allowed the party not only to reach more beneficiaries but also to consolidate them into voters: what some have described as the conversion of labharthis to voters.

Despite the Ladki Bahin scheme being floated under the branding of Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde, the incumbent Chief Minister, who played the role of the Ladka Bhau or “favourite brother” to all the Ladki Bahin (sister) voters, it is the BJP that has reaped its benefits. Going beyond the Chief Minister’s post now taken by Devendra Fadnavis, however, it is important to see how the BJP has mobilised and consolidated its voters more effectively using three important factors.

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First, the BJP has a strong organisation in the State, which includes booth-level micro-management of a high level. From booth visataraks to panna pramukhs, from making every polling booth a shakti kendra to campaigns such as mera booth sabse majboot (my booth is the strongest) have helped the party establish a party organisation unmatched in geographic spread. One could argue that parties such as Shiv Sena too have a dedicated cadre, but their presence has limited geographical spread, which makes the BJP’s reach unparalleled in Maharashtra. Adding to this is the significant influence of RSS karyakartas. Maharashtra has typically seen politics centred around personalities who represent their own factions. It will be interesting to see how the BJP’s party-centric organisation holds its own in the traditionally leader-centric politics of the State.

Second, the BJP successfully accommodated regional political elites from other parties, either by allowing them into its party (such as Vikhe-Patil or Ashok Chavan or Madhukar Pichad) or by accommodating them in its allied parties. This helped the BJP co-opt the ruling Maratha classes into its fold. Allied organisations such as the Shiv Pratishthan Hindustan allowed poor Maratha youth in rural areas to find some meaning by being co-opted into the larger cause of making or “reclaiming” a Hindu Rashtra. This ultimately helped the BJP strengthen its broad social coalition.

The third and most important factor is the BJP’s control over the levers of the political economy and its use of State resources to further redistribute this control. In the run-up to the election, development corporations for every possible micro OBC community were mobilised to facilitate State patronage. Similar strategies were used to reach out to the Maratha community by accommodating leaders including Narendra Patil in Cabinet positions via the Annasaheb Patil Arthik Magas Vikas Mahamandal when it first came to power as the dominant partner in an alliance government with the Shiv Sena in 2014. The BJP could use the existing patronage networks controlled by these political elites in addition to its own strong organisational presence on the ground.

Clash of elites

Two examples of this synchronisation of BJP organisations with local patronage networks were seen. In Rani Ahilyabainagar, formerly Ahmednagar, the Vikhe-Patils helped the Mahayuti candidate, a farmer’s son, to defeat the eight-time MLA from Sangamner and Congress stalwart Balasaheb Thorat. In Nanded, former Congressman Ashok Chavan’s networks of sugar cooperatives, educational institutions, and Zila Parishads allowed the BJP to extend its lead on all six constituencies in the district even though the Congress had won the Parliamentary seat earlier based on his own patronage networks. However, in the clash of elites in Nanded, the stronger party organisation of the BJP became the clincher.

The political ramifications of the BJP’s strong consolidation of power will be important for the future course of politics in Maharashtra. While there is some similarity with the Congress party’s earlier control of State resources, large-scale welfare delivery, and accommodation of political elites, there are differences in the social alliance realignment of the Bahujan Samaj under Hindutva from the previous form of Bahujan Samaj politics based on a broader idea of social justice. There is also the shift from personality-centric to party-centric politics. These changes might be influential in changing the nature of future politics in Maharashtra.

Sarthak Bagchi is assistant professor, Ahmedabad University.

Ashish Ranjan is the co-founder of DALES (Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies).

Devendra Fadnavis: The architect of Maharashtra’s new political order

Aseem — Wed, 04 Dec 2024 14:01:27 +0000

Five years ago, in the 2019 monsoon session of the Legislative Assembly, then Chief Minister of Maharashtra Devendra Fadnavis, while looking for another term, recited a poem in the house: “Mi Punha Yein (I will return).” It went viral, praised by supporters and mocked by the opposition.

On November 23, 2019, Fadnavis took the oath as Chief Minister again, aided by NCP’s Ajit Pawar. The swearing-in ceremony shocked the nation, but the government could not last more than 70 hours. Fadnavis 2.0 was short lived.

But with hard work and the complete support of the central government, Fadnavis has indeed made his prophetic poem come true: he is set to become the Chief Minister of India’s richest State yet again.

Fadnavis’s story is one of ambition, providence, and early success. At just 22, he became a corporator in Nagpur. At 27, he became the Mayor of Nagpur. Two factors aided him: His father, Gangadhar Fadnavis, was an MLC, although he passed away before his son entered politics; the young Fadnavis also had a close association with RSS (headquartered in Nagpur), the strongest factor that led to his political rise from Nagpur to Delhi. At 29, he was elected into the Assembly, representing the Nagpur Southwest Assembly constituency.

His first two terms (1999 and 2004) as an MLA were not extraordinary. He would speak essentially on civic matters related to Vidarbha. But by 2009, Fadnavis became a force to reckon with. That year, the BJP became the biggest party in the opposition camp. Eknath Khadse became Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly. Fadnavis used to often take over from Khadse with his erudite speeches.

The years between 2009 and 2014 were volatile. The UPA-2 government was facing serious corruption charges along with economic recession. BJP at the national level upped its game and routinely attacked UPA leaders on alleged corruption. In Maharashtra, Khadse and Fadnavis took on this role. Fadnavis became a household name as he took part in TV debates almost every night for those five years. There was enough fodder to attack the UPA: the Adarsh Housing Society scandal, after which Maharashtra Chief Minister Ashok Chavan (then with the Congress) had to resign; the Commonwealth Games scam, where the president of the Indian Olympic Association and Congress MP, Suresh Kalmadi, came under fire; the Lavasa scam, where the plan to build a hill station in Pune district got into controversy and was allegedly linked to NCP chief Sharad Pawar; the 2G scam, where two real estate giants of Mumbai were allegedly linked to Sharad Pawar too.

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It helped Fadnavis that during this time, the BJP’s internal politics turned in his favour. Sudhir Mungantiwar, from Maharashtra’s Chandrapur, the party’s State president, was a close confidante of Nitin Gadkari. Gopinath Munde, the party’s tallest leader, was, however, in competition with Gadkari. So, to make sure that the State unit remains under his control ahead of the crucial 2014 elections, Munde lobbied to change the State BJP chief and favoured Fadnavis, who he was close to, as a replacement. And this is was how, Fadnavis, an MLA, became the State president in 2013.

In the 2014 Assembly election, the BJP went solo. Fadnavis, now a known figure, pulled in massive crowds at rallies. When the BJP became the single largest party with 122 MLAs in 2014, it had two choices for Maharashtra’s Chief Minister: Gadkari, then the Union transport minister, and Fadnavis. While Gadkari was seen as a ‘competitor’ to Narendra Modi, Fadnavis was not. And so, Fadnavis rose to the position of Chief Minister for the first time in 2014.

As he rose in power, Fadnavis never looked back. As an administrator, Fadnavis made his mark: In Mumbai and the suburbs, he pushed for a metro network to enhance transport; the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link, India’s longest sea bridge, became a reality; for rural Maharashtra, Fadnavis came up with the Jalyukt Shivar scheme, a micro irrigation programme (which however was not without criticism from experts).

Fadnavis faced three of the biggest challenges during the first term. First was the Maharashtra drought of 2016. Second, the agriculture crisis, where for the first time in the history of independent India, farmers went on strike in 2017. Fadnavis’s handling of this strike was criticised by many farmer leaders. The third crisis was the Maratha protest. The rape of a minor girl from the State’s biggest community was a trigger point, leading to a massive protest by the community across the State. The Maratha reservation demand became a focal point. But despite this, Fadnavis managed to get his party to win 10 municipalities and more than 200 municipal councils in the 2017 and 2018 local body elections. BJP also won 80 per cent of zilla parishads (district body) in this term.

Unlike in 2014, the BJP and Shiv Sena (then united) fought the 2019 Assembly election in alliance. BJP’s tally was reduced, but it stopped at 105. Shiv Sena won 56 seats. This was when a turning point in Fadnavis’s fortunes as well as in State politics came. Uddhav Thackeray quit the NDA after a tussle and joined hands with the Congress and NCP. Thackeray eventually became Chief Minister. Fadnavis’s stint as Chief Minister with Ajit Pawar ended in 70 hours. Still number one within his party, Fadnavis became Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly.

As Leader of the Opposition, Fadnavis was aggressive, always in attack mode. But this was seen as his desperation for power. From here began the darkest chapter in the history of Maharashtra politics. To topple the Thackeray-led Shiv Sena-Congress-NCP government, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), BJP used its entire government machinery: the Enforcement Directorate, the CBI, and the Income Tax Department.

Also Read | How cash transfers and communal politics propelled Mahayuti’s landslide win in Maharashtra

The central government was determined to topple the Maharashtra government; the results came in June 2022. Thackeray’s lieutenant, Eknath Shinde, broke away with 40 MLAs. Later, Shinde himself said publicly that Fadnavis was the architect of his rebellion. This time, Fadnavis’s supporters believed he would become Chief Minister. But surprisingly, the BJP’s high command went with Shinde. Fadnavis himself had to make the announcement; he had said he would play the role of a guide. But within minutes of this statement, the BJP national president publicly asked him to reconsider his decision and take on the mantle of Deputy Chief Minister in the Shinde government.

This was the lowest point in Fadnavis’s political career in the last 10 years. Later, Ajit Pawar broke away from NCP, joined the government and became the second Deputy Chief Minister.

But being stubborn, Fadnavis didn’t stop there. He kept working hard for the party and to secure his own position within the party. In the past two years, he took complete control of Maharashtra BJP. When in June 2024, NDA lost badly to MVA in Maharashtra, Fadnavis offered to resign as Deputy Chief Minister. He studied the defeat well. Maratha consolidation and the unity of Muslims and Dalits brought success to MVA. Since then, with the help of RSS, Fadnavis began planning for the Assembly elections. Be it welfare schemes, high-pitched Hindu-Muslim binary campaigns, or the consolidation of OBC votes, Fadnavis planned everything minutely and executed them ruthlessly.

The rest is history. His party won an unprecedented 132 seats.

Meanwhile, by 2029, Prime Minister Modi will be 79 years old. If he decides to stay out of electoral politics, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Fadnavis will be the two top choices. One is the aggressive Hindutva face, and the other, while a proponent of Hindutva too, is also a development-orientated one.

With RSS’s unconditional backing and with command over a resource-rich State, Fadnavis’s new era of political power may have just begun.

Maharashtra election: How the Maratha quota question became irrelevant

Aseem — Tue, 26 Nov 2024 06:01:02 +0000

For those following the Maharashtra Assembly election, the result announced on November 23 came as a surprise: Not because the BJP-led Mahayuti won the State, but because of the enormous margin of its victory. Ironically, just six months ago, during the Lok Sabha election, the party had contested 28 seats and could only win nine. This was the lowest tally for the party since 1998.

There were multiple reasons behind Mahayuti’s defeat in the general election. From the agrarian crisis to the consolidation of Dalits and Muslims votes in favour of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) to the Maratha reservation protest. But each of these issues took a back seat in the Assembly election.

The Maratha reservation demand helped MVA win 12 Lok Sabha seats. So what changed in these six months? The answer, curiously, is nothing. The reservation has not yet been implemented. Maratha leader Manoj Jarange Patil had decided to contest the Assembly election but later withdrew. In the Marathwada region, which was perceived as the epicentre of the protest and where MVA had won seven out of eight Lok Sabha seats, Mahayuti not only made a comeback but won a thumping 41 seats out of 46.

The biggest factor that proved decisive in the BJP’s success to overcome the ‘Maratha Challenge’ in the Assembly election is the party’s capacity to strategise swiftly. It had understood back in June that winning back Marathwada will need a multi-dimensional strategy. For the larger electorate, they come up with two big answers: one was the welfare scheme Ladaki Bahin,and second, an indirect answer of the OBC consolidation against the political challenge posed by the Maratha community.

Also Read | Maratha reservation issue takes a troubling turn

The first protest by Laxman Hake, the OBC leader, started in Jalana district on June 13. Hake, who belongs to the Dhangar (shepherd) community, was the candidate in the Madha Lok Sabha constituency in May 2024. He got less than 6,000 votes. He had been brought from Western Maharashtra’s Madha to Marathwada’s Jalana. Hake opposed the dilution of the OBC quota. This was a direct, anti-Maratha reservation demand.

The State government had assured the Maratha community that they would be included in the Kunbi community, which, in Maharashtra, comes under the OBC category. Soon, a Dhangar leader began a protest in Marathwada to save OBC reservations from the Maratha community. In the Lok Sabha election, the Marathas had decisively tilted in the favour of the MVA, resulting in the defeat of two big OBC leaders, Pankaja Munde (Vanjari) and Mahadev Jankar (Dhangar) from Beed and Parbhani, respectively; both of these constituencies are in the Marathwada region. Within 10 days of the defeat of State’s two biggest OBC leaders, Hake started his fast to protest the dilution of the OBC quota.

The socio-political history

To understand these dynamics, it is important to look at Maharashtra’s socio-political history. The Marathas have been a dominant caste in the State. In Indian history and mythology, there were several Brahmin kings. But in Maharashtra, the Maratha, who are supposed to be second in the Chaturvanya system, have always been kings or the ruling class. They had substantial powers, both pre- and post-independence, in governance, politics, educational institutions, agriculture-based cooperative industries, rural banking, and local body elections. For a long time, it is also a fact that the Maratha did not share this power with other castes, be it Brahmin, Dalit, or smaller castes from OBC communities. It was only later, in the 70’s, that things began changing as the dominant Congress party started expanding its base in Indira Gandhi era.

This predominant upper-caste hold on the power gave way for the demands of the Mandal Commission. Before that, socialists under the leadership of Ram Manohar Lohia were successful in mobilising smaller castes. In Maharashtra, socialist leaders including S.M. Joshi and N.G. Gore succeeded in penetrating smaller pockets as well as cities such as Mumbai and Pune. Jan Sangh, which was at that time a party of mainly upper-caste members, was not keen on the strategy to mobilise the smaller ‘non-political’ castes. The idea of socialists to challenge Congress’ dominance through the mobilisation of smaller castes was simple. If the Congress in Maharashtra is predominantly a Maratha party, then bringing all non-Maratha together would help them get into power. Socialists did not shy away from bringing Muslims and Dalits on the board, unlike the Jan Sangha.

Also Read | Maratha reservation: BJP caught in a fix in Maharashtra

In the post-Emergency era, the new BJP understood the basics of non-Maratha politics. So, in North India, BJP pushed Kamandal politics as a challenge to Mandal. But in Maharashtra, BJP’s Vasantrao Bhagwat, an RSS ideologue, observed that the new leadership comes from non-Maratha Hindu communities. The Mandal Commission termed these communities as OBCs. The BJP brought in Gopinath Munde (Vanjari) and N.S. Farande (Mali) to challenge the Congress’ hegemony in the State. This gave the BJP the space to reach communities such as Mali (gardener), Dhangar (shepherd), Vanjari (a semi-nomadic caste from Marathwada), and others. This helped BJP in the 80s as well as in the 2024 Assembly election.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi used the slogan ‘Ek Hai To Safe Hai’ in the Maharashtra Assembly election campaign, many took it as a communal rhetoric against Muslims. But it was a call for OBCs as MVA was seen as a champion of the Maratha cause during the Lok Sabha election.

There are historical reasons behind the BJP cadre’s strong anti-Maratha undertone. Although the party has now reached out to various OBCs and SCs, its political vocabulary has always been anti-progressive. Maharashtra has had a long history of progressive movements. Mahatma Jyotiba Phule, the doyen of Indian political thought for equality, started the Satyashodhak Samaj movement in 1873. It was the first ideological and action-based challenge to the Brahmin hegemony in Maharashtra’s socio-political scenario.

Till then, King Shivaji, a founder of the Maratha Empire, was called Go Brahmin Pratipalak (saviour of cows and Brahmins). Phule called him Kulawadi Bhushan (Kulawadi means Kunbi). In the 1880s, there was no compartmentalisation of castes. All agricultural communities were called Kunabi) and Bahujan Prati Palak (saviour of Bahujan). The Satyashodhak Samaj movement later became a Brahmanetar(non-Brahmin) movement in 1920 and 1930s. The leaders of Brahmanetar were Keshavrao Jedhe and Dinkarrao Javalkar.

Lokmanya Tilak was their main target due to Tilak’s alleged stands on many issues related to Bahujan politics. Until his death, Tilak was the tallest leader of the Congress. After him, Gandhi emerged as the Congress stalwart. Gandhi took the baton from Tilak and expanded the base of the Indian freedom movement. This duo, Jedhe-Javalkar, as they were famously called, joined the Congress under Gandhi’s leadership. This anti-Brahmin movement spread across the then-Mumbai province.

Today’s Western Maharashtra was in the Mumbai province. When in 1948, a Brahmin from Maharashtra, Nathuram Godse, killed Gandhi, this was taken as an attack on Bahujan Asmita (pride) by Brahmins. Many Brahmins had to flee from their native villages to cities such as Pune and Mumbai as the riots erupted in Maharashtra. Jan Sangh, the RSS’s political wing, thus never gelled with the Maratha. This continued later with the BJP too. And this is why the BJP’s political vocabulary, with undertones of Hindutva, does not go well with the Maratha even today.

BJP’s Maratha candidates

So, when Manoj Jarange Patil successfully decimated the OBC leadership of the BJP in the Lok Sabha election, the BJP started mobilising its original vote base. They also worked on the possible division of Maratha votes with strong Maratha candidates.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah waves to an audience during a public meeting in support of BJP candidate from Jintur, Meghana Bordikar. Parbhani, Maharashtra, November 13.
| Photo Credit:
ANI

For example, in Jintu constituency of Parbhani district in Marathwada, the repeated ticket to Meghana Bordikar, the daughter of Maratha strongman from the area, Ramprasad Bordikar. Ramprasad was once in the Congress and close to the then-Chief Minister of Maharashtra, Vilasrao Deshmukh. It helped the BJP divide Maratha votes, and with the help of OBC votes, Meghana Bordikar won the election.

Over time, prominent Marathas from across the State developed financial institutions in their respective areas: sugar mills, education institutions, dairy, or other agro-based industries. This network helps them politically during the elections. In last decade, the BJP has successfully brought some of these Marathas into their camp. After the Lok Sabha election, there was a belief that many of these families would again unite against the BJP to safeguard their interests. But the Assembly results, and especially the BJP’s huge victory, will push them to reconsider going against the BJP. This means the BJP won the election through the clever mobilisation of anti-Maratha forces, especially OBCs. And the party will use this mandate to bring the remaining Maratha leaders in Maharashtra to their knees.

It is a fact that Maharashtra has remained a progressive State for 70 years because Maratha leadership ruled it most of the time. The base of the Maratha leadership was developed during Phule’s movement and afterwards during the Jedhe-Javalkar Brahmanetar movement. The first Chief Minister of Maharashtra, Yashwantrao Chavan, was a product of these movements for social justice.

Sharad Pawar, although compromised much during his political career, was a pupil of Chavan. From bringing in reservations for women in local body elections to OBC reservation in local bodies and renaming Aurangabad (now Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar) university to Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar University, Pawar anchored the State on the line of progressive politics. With this election, the political vocabulary of Maharashtra has decisively changed from King Shahu, Mahatma Phule, and Dr. Ambedkar to Batenge Toh Katenge. This is bound to impact the State’s socio-political scenario in the years to come. And these changes will draw the fault lines of caste politics in Maharashtra.

Jaidev Dole is a senior journalist and author.

Maharashtra’s new reality: Beyond the revolving door

Aseem — Sat, 23 Nov 2024 12:35:34 +0000

The Shiv Sena Bhavan in Mumbai stands deserted during vote counting for the Maharashtra Assembly election on November 23.
| Photo Credit: PTI

Napoleon Bonaparte once said: “Men are ruled by toys.” As the cursed favourite toy, the State of Maharashtra has seen more than its fair share of attention from the country’s central leadership. After five years of a revolving door of leadership, Maharashtra will now enter a phase of more stable leadership—or so one hopes.

The maximum metropolis Mumbai has always been a conurbation of contrasts: tall skyscrapers looking out at a sea of flat blue tin roofs and slum clusters. In the last few years, the State as well has begun to show the same sharp inequities its capital does. Maharashtra’s per capita GDP has seen a slide, moving from second to sixth-highest among States in the last decade. Ironically, even as the State moves lower, its rich and elite rise. The Hurun India Rich List 2024 documents the State-wise distribution of India’s richest people with the highest net worth. Maharashtra continues to hold pole position there, almost doubling its entries from 248 in 2020 to a stunning 470 entries in 2024. Unsurprising, as the State has consistently boasted of the highest number of wealthy individuals.

During the Lok Sabha election, the Mahayuti lost five of the six Lok Sabha seats in the “onion belt” of Dindori, Nashik, Beed, Aurangabad, Ahmednagar, and Dhule seats. The region accounts for over a third of the country’s onion production. A complete ban on onion exports triggered anger among onion farmers, and they voted with their feet. In this round of the Assembly election, the belt has seen more scattered outcomes—a reflection of the BJP’s performance in another agrarian State, Haryana, and the fact that the agrarian crisis and its solution is playing out quite differently in the minds of rural voters. There is swift retribution when policy decisions are unpopular but it is also clear there is no appealing or cogent enough alternative yet that presents itself.

Also Read | Maharashtra election: How will Muslims and Dalits vote?

The Congress party tried to rally support on the near collapse of soybean prices, promising legal status for a Minimum Support Price (MSP) and a price of Rs.7,000 per quintal for soybean. The message and the promise have clearly not hit home. Farmers of Maharashtra want to see why and how a different political outcome will address their needs.

It is a lesson the opposition will have to reflect on quite deeply. As things stand, the Legislative Assembly may not have a Leader of Opposition for the first time simply because none of the opposition parties has managed to win 10 per cent of the total number of seats required to claim that post.

Were critical pressure points different?

Not at all. A pre-election Lokniti survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) ahead of the election in Maharashtra found that inflation was a key issue for voters. Ditto with unemployment. According to the government’s own data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey for April-June 2024, the unemployment rate for youths between 15 and 29 years in urban areas was 16.8 per cent. It has certainly not helped that large job-creating projects have been whisked away from the State and handed to Gujarat instead. The Vedanta-Foxconn project loss was followed by the Tata-Airbus aircraft project being shifted to Gujarat.

Not helpful for a State that is currently saddled with a fiscal deficit gap of over Rs.2 lakh crore for 2024-25. What is worse, even more debt is being slapped onto the State’s finances. In October, the State Cabinet approved an interest-free subordinate loan of Rs.1,354 crore for the Orange Gate-Marine Drive tunnel and a similar loan of Rs.2,417 crore for the Thane-Borivali tunnel. Hurriedly stitched together ahead of the election, the Ladki Bahin Yojana comes with an annual burden of Rs.46,000 crore.

Why did Maharashtra vote the way it did?

While granular analysis of flawed and delayed seat-sharing agreements between the Opposition’s Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) on the one hand and caste equations on the other will add more perspective, there are two big lessons for the opposition.

One is that the average voter is no longer interested in or beguiled by “personality politics”. The Thackerays continued with the approach of avenging the personal affront they had faced from their ouster even as the BJP quickly realised that a hyper-local election such as Maharashtra needs specific and concrete solutions. The first step was to emulate Madhya Pradesh’s example of the Ladli Behna scheme and quickly convert it into the Ladki Bahin Yojana to promise cash in the hands of the State’s poor women.

The second, is that there is very little patience any more for the “long view”. Just as the onion belt voted to show their anger in the general election, they have now chosen what looks and feels like the best immediate and localised solution to their problems. A sly nod to the good old communalism card also helped with slogans like “Batenge Toh Katenge” stitching up a “combo offer” of cash in hand, savvy caste strategy, and the promise of safety in religious numbers.

Also Read | Maharashtra election: Will the promise of mega infrastructure projects win NDA votes?

There is another takeaway for the country’s political opposition. State election results, such as in Haryana and Maharashtra, are met with complete shock. This is not what they expected to see at all, say opposition leaders; this is not how they had read the room. Local reporters, however, shared with simple confidence a week before the State went to election: not only was the Mahayuti going to be the clear winner, the BJP was going to emerge as the single largest party in the State. Where has such a deep disconnect grown between political organisations and the people they want to represent? How much time, effort, and space is being provided to listen to voters and to reflect that in intention and action.

For the State of Maharashtra, binaries will continue to exist. Dharavi will live in the same city as Antilia, plummeting crop prices will live in the same State as surging stock market returns, and deprivation will continue to live alongside unimaginable wealth. But in the dust and rubble of an increasingly familiar and heightened communal and cash pitch pre-election, the people of Maharashtra will now pick up the pieces. Of the voting decisions they made, the narrative they chose and the future that stands before them.

Mitali Mukherjee is Director of the Journalist Programmes at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, University of Oxford. She is a political economy journalist with more than two decades of experience in TV, print and digital journalism. Mitali has co-founded two start-ups that focussed on civil society and financial literacy and her key areas of interest are gender and climate change.

Jharkhand Exit Poll LIVE: झारखंड में किसकी सरकार? सामने आया Exit Poll, जानें कौन जीत रहा सियासी 'रण'

Aseem — Wed, 20 Nov 2024 14:39:02 +0000

झारखंड में दूसरे और अंतिम चरण का मतदान हो चुका है, जिसके बाद एग्जिट पोल सामने आने लगे हैं. MATRIZE के एग्जिट पोल के आकंड़ों के मुताबिक राज्य में INDIA गठबंधन को बड़ा झटका लग रहा है और बीजेपी का नेतृत्व वाला NDA गठबंधन सरकार बनाने जा रहा है.

> MATRIZE एग्जिट पोल के आंकड़ों के अनुसार इस चुनाव में झारखंड की 81 विधानसभा सीटों में से 42-47 पर BJP के नेतृत्व वाला NDA गठबंधन कब्जा जमाने जा रहा है. वहीं, कांग्रेस के नेतृत्व वाले INDIA गठबंधन को 25-30 सीटें मिलने का अनुमान है. 1-4 सीटें अन्य दलों के खाते में जाने की संभावना जताई गई है.

> CHANAKYA STRATEGIES के एग्जिट पोल के मुताबिक एनडीए गठबंधन को 45-50 सीटें मिल सकती हैं. जेएमएम के यूपीए गठबंधन को 35-38 से लेकर 03-05 सीटें मिलने की उम्मीद है. वहीं 3 से लेकर 5 सीटें अन्य को मिल सकती हैं.

सम्बंधित ख़बरें

> JVC एग्जिट पोल के मुताबिक बीजेपी लीडिंग एनडीए गठबंधन को राज्य में 40-44 सीटें मिलने की उम्मीद है. JMM के नेतृत्व वाले यूपीए गठबंधन को यहां 30-40 सीटें मिल सकती हैं. अन्य की बात करें तो उन्हें यहां सिर्फ एक सीट मिलने का अनुमान है.

महाराष्ट्र का पहला एग्जिट पोल आया सामने, महायुति को 150-170 सीटों का अनुमान

23 नवंबर को आएंगे चुनावी नतीजे

बता दें कि झारखंड में दो चरणों में मतदान हुआ है, जिसके नतीजे 23 नवंबर को आएंगे. पहले चरण में 13 नवंबर को 43 सीटों पर वोटिंग हुई और दूसरे चरण में 20 नवंबर को 38 सीटों पर मतदान हुई. अब 23 नवंबर को मतगणना होगी.

यूपी उपचुनाव की 9 सीटों पर कौन मारेगा बाजी? जानें- Exit Poll के नतीजे

दूसरे फेज में पहले से ज्यादा मतदान

दरअसल, झारखंड में 20 नवंबर यानी आज ही दूसरे चरण के तहत 38 सीटों पर मतदान हुआ है. राज्य में शाम 5 बजे तक 67.59 फीसदी मतदान दर्ज किया गया है. यहां विधानसभा चुनाव के पहले चरण में 43 सीटों पर 13 नवंबर को मतदान हुआ था. पहले चरण में 66.18% से ज्यादा वोटिंग हुई थी. सबसे ज्यादा मतदान लोहरदगा जिलें में हुआ था. पिछले चुनाव की बात की जाए तो राज्य में 2019 के विधानसभा चुनावों में 63.9% वोटिंग हुई थी.

We are opposing vote jehad: Ajit Pawar

Aseem — Thu, 14 Nov 2024 11:46:01 +0000

Ajit Pawar says there is “absolutely” no chance of him rejoining his uncle Sharad Pawar in the future.
| Photo Credit: PTI

Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar politically broke away from his uncle Sharad Pawar almost a year ago. His claims on the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and its symbol were accepted by the Election Commission but the matter is now with the Supreme Court. He contested as a partner of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Lok Sabha election and could win one seat out of four. This time, in the State Assembly election, Ajit’s party is contesting 55 seats. He believes that the Mahayuti has improved its election position in the last four months and is going to win this election. He spoke to Frontline during his campaign in Marathwada. Excerpts.

This is the first election where you are at the opposite camp of Sharad Pawar. He is targeting you; are you feeling the heat of his attack?

This is just like any other election in my 40 years political life. When we decided to stand against him, we were prepared to do so with full force.

Just four months back, Mahayuti faced a debacle. Do you believe the situation has improved in since then?

Yes, definitely. The fake narrative of the Lok Sabha election is not making a comeback despite Maha Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) attempts. We have corrected our mistakes. For instance, there was the onion ban. We suffered a lot because of this in north Maharashtra. After the Lok Sabha election, the ban was lifted and farmers are getting a fair price. The “400 paar” slogan met with the allegations of Constitutional change and the formation of a Hindu Rashtra. I cannot comment on the defeat in Uttar Pradesh, but in Maharashtra, the backward class believed the propaganda of the opposition. The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) agitation led minorities to believe that they will be thrown out of the country. The opposition successfully made people believe that we needed 400 seats to do all this. After results all these fears have turned baseless and issues no longer matter.

Also Read | No need for ‘Batenge toh Katenge’ narrative in Maharashtra, focus should be on development: Pankaja Munde

Despite this experience, why is it that your ally BJP is raising slogans such as “vote jehad” or “batenge to katenge”?

We as NCP has already made our stand clear. We are opposing it. North India may accept this, but not Maharashtra. We have people with different backgrounds in our State. I am of the opinion that such things should not be said. We belong to the ideology of Shiv (Chhatrapati Shivaji), Shahu (Chhatrapati Shahu Maharaj), Phule (Mahatma Phule) and Ambedkar and only this ideology can take Maharashtra forward.

But senior BJP leaders including Modi, Yogi Adityanath, and Devendra Fadnavis are the ones saying this. What would you tell them?

Modi never said this. Don’t twist his words. “sabka sath, sabka vikas” is the motto of the Central government. “ek hai toh safe hai” is exactly on this line. He is asking everyone to remain united. Your interpretation is different, ours is different.

Will the rebels lead to a large number of independents getting elected?

Last time such a thing happened was in 1995. But then, there was internal rebellion within the Congress. This time, we decided seats on the basis of the strength of the candidates and even we exchanged candidates. So, I don’t think independents will get a large number of seats.

Don’t you think contesting on fewer seats will dilute the possibility of you becoming a Chief Minister?

Don’t drag me into yet another controversy. For your information, there are people who have become Prime Ministers or Chief Ministers with a strength of 40 legislators behind them. But I am not going to comment on anything. People like Nawab Malik have said that I will be a key player, but I do not want to comment on it. We three will sit together after the results and the Chief Minister will be finalised.

PM Modi being felicitated by State CM Eknath Shinde and Deputy CMs Ajit Pawar and Devendra Fadnavis during the launch and laying the foundation stone of various projects, worth more than Rs 29,400 crores, in Mumbai in July 2024.
| Photo Credit:
ANI

If situation demands, will you join hands with Sharad Pawar after the election results?

There is absolutely no possibility of it. In any case, there is no comeback now.

Are you confident about Baramati? Because in the Lok Sabha election, your wife was trailing in this Assembly segment. This time, your nephew is contesting against you.

Our family is divided on this. As per my study, the voters of Baramati chose Pawar sahib (Sharad Pawar) for the Lok Sabha by electing Supriya (Sule). For the Assembly, I am always among the voters and work for them. I am not somebody who is coming in just for the election. They (voters) see, know and acknowledge my work. I have full confidence that I will win Baramati and as Mahayuti we will win more than 175 seats across Maharashtra.

Also Read | In Maharashtra election, it is caste over crops

Maratha activists like Manoj Jarange-Patil have given a call to defeat certain candidates of Mahayuti. How do you see it?

That’s his democratic right. Ultimately, people will decide and vote.

Is an OBC consolidation happening on the other side in Mahayuti’s favour?

Maharashtra has largely avoided voting on caste consolidations. There was a time when BJP had stalwarts like Gopinath Munde and Anna Dange who led to the consolidation of the Vanjari community. But I don’t see that happening to that extent now.

What is your plan to calm farmers agitated over falling prices of soybean and cotton?

We helped farmers by announcing Rs. 5,000 per ha. There are two sides to the coin. If we increase soybean prices, the oil will get costlier. If that happens, you will cry about inflation. The same thing happened with milk farmers. We have spoken to the Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who has assured us that we will find a way after the code of conduct is lifted.

Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024: The talking heads

Aseem — Sat, 09 Nov 2024 08:49:25 +0000

Shiv Sena supporters during the nomination filing rally of party candidate Mahendra Thorve for the Assembly election.
| Photo Credit: PTI

The electorally crucial State of Maharashtra will elect Members to its Legislative Assembly later this month. An electorate of 9.59 crore voters (4.95 crore men and 4.64 crore women) will decide the fate of candidates across 288 constituencies. Nearly 20 lakh people are first-time voters. The ruling Mahayuti is pitted against the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

The split within the Shiv Sena party (into the Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde factions) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) (into the Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar factions)—the two major regional parties—has increased the number of key political players to six. This election will determine which faction of these parties best represents the cadre. The focus areas for the election are progressive identity, the legacy of social justice politics, shifting political dynamics, and declining social indicators.

In the recent Lok Sabha election, the MVA, consisting of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar), and the Congress, secured 31 of the 48 seats while the BJP-led Mahayuti won only 17. This was attributed to the Maratha reservation issue (the Maratha community, which accounts for 30 percent of the State’s population, has been agitating for reservation for over a year). This, along with the agricultural crisis, the falling prices of onion, cotton, and soyabean, and subnationalism will be crucial factors in this election.

Other factors include intensifying ideological battles and the resurgence of erstwhile dominant political families. However, the battle is fragmented across the six major parties in the two opposing coalitions. The outcome will be seen in the weeks to come. In this backdrop, Frontline is on the battleground talking to the who’s who of Maharashtra politics to understand the pulse on the ground. Our correspondent Amey Tirodkar is giving you the views from the ground as well as literally from above (he boarded a chopper to talk to veteran Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat). Here’s a list of interviews we did recently.

Stay tuned, keep refreshing the page every day. We will be adding more.

‘This battle is for the soul of Maharashtra’: Balasaheb Thorat

Aseem — Thu, 07 Nov 2024 04:57:03 +0000

Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat is a veteran politician who has been an MLA from the Sangamner constituency in Ahilyanagar district, Maharashtra, since 1985. If Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comes into power in the upcoming Assembly election, and the Congress gets a greater number of seats, Thorat could be a strong contender for the Chief Minister’s post. Frontline travelled with him from Sangamner to Mumbai, where Thorat discussed his agenda, the Congress campaign, people’s concerns, the changes in State politics over the past 40 years and his ambitions for the State’s top post. Excerpts:

You first contested and won in Sangamner in 1985. This is your ninth election. Leaders face anti-incumbency in the first or second term. Don’t you sense a similar sentiment?

People often ask me this question: how did you even get elected for the eight terms. Let me tell you the answer to this. If you have direct touch with people, if you work sincerely and honestly for people and bring real change in their life, people continue voting for you.

Almost 40 years have passed since you first contested. What has changed in these decades?

What is the difference between 1985 and 2024? You will see a number of farm lakes. In Sangamner tehsil, you will find 10,000 similar lakes. Forty years ago, there was no water. Today there is a canal. People store the water and use it with micro irrigation facilities for horticulture. This has brought prosperity to the area.

This is about development. But what about politics? What has changed in politics?

I have seen big changes in the past 40 years. Until 1985, there was a generation of leaders who were ideologically committed. Their speeches on development reflected non-partisanship. But in the past 10 years, this has rapidly declined. Ever since the BJP came into power, everything has changed. There is no ideology left now. All they want is power. Look at the language of many leaders. There is no grace left among many politicians.

Also Read | Maharashtra election: How will Muslims and Dalits vote?

What is the agenda of your party for this election?

The Congress has been a party of ideology. We are going into this election with the ideals of the Constitution. What is said in the Preamble, about inclusiveness, secularism, equality, is our agenda. BJP is pushing a communal agenda to get power. This is against the idea of the Constitution. But all our schemes are centred around the common man, his welfare, his development.

You are saying your agenda is based on ideology and development. But Mahayuti leaders are saying the same thing. They have brought in a number of welfare schemes. What is unique about your alliance?

Forget their schemes. First, we need to talk about the way they have formed this government. They misused government machinery and autonomous bodies to break parties. So, people reacted to their work in the Lok Sabha election. That is why they realised they would need some populist schemes where they would be able to shower money on the public. The Ladki Bahin scheme is fine, but many other schemes are aimed at votes. They do not have any vision. This has harmed the basic development of the State.

You are talking about the misuse of autonomous bodies in context of breaking the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Are voters really bothered by this?

Yes. There is anger among people. Maharashtra is a progressive State. The thoughts of Shahu Maharaj and Ambedkar are well accepted here. That is why the people of the State want politics to be cultured and ruled-based. That is why BJP’s politics is being rejected by the people.

Do you believe that schemes such as waving off electricity bills or the Ladki Bahin scheme have no effect on the ground? And people are more concerned about ideological decline?

Ladki Bahin is a copy-paste from the Congress manifesto. Rahul Gandhi had promised it. We will also come up with schemes for the farmers. We are not against helping the poor. But under the name of welfare, hundreds of crores are being spent on advertisement. This is loot.

But politically speaking, do you believe that these schemes have brought the Mahayuti into the race?

I don’t think so. They will not be in a race because of these schemes. Because people do not want this government back. They have been against it since its very formation. People call it an illegal government.

What is your positive agenda for the election?

Our agenda is welfare of the common man and upholding the Constitution. All our schemes will be about the last man of society. How we can empower his life is our concern.

The State government claimed that Maharashtra has become number one in industrial development in the past two years. Do you agree?

No. The reality is that industries have gone to Gujarat. You are bringing in Ladki Bahin, but her brother has no job. A recent economic paper (a report of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister) has shown that the State’s GDP has declined in the past decade. Once Maharashtra was the most developing State. But the BJP has brought it down.

After the Lok Sabha election, BJP has often referred to ‘Vote Jehad’, targetting the Muslim voter. What is your take on this?

They always stoke communal feelings to get into power. They have nothing to show in terms of their work. But I want to ask them: onion farmers voted for us in the Lok Sabha election. Will BJP call it ‘onion jehad’? Unemployed youth voted for us in huge numbers. Is that ‘unemployed jehad’? Women voted for us en bloc because they were against the increasing atrocities against them. What would BJP call it? ‘Women against atrocities jehad’?

Also Read | My focus for the election is jobs: Aaditya Thackeray

The question of the Maratha reservation is being hotly discussed in Maharashtra. Manoj Jarange Patil of Maratha reservation has declared that his movement will not get into electoral politics. How do you see this?

It is the right decision. Because they are not a political party. They are not protesting keeping political power in mind. They are protesting for a large number of youth of one community who are unemployed. So had they come into politics, this protest would have seen setbacks.

Political analysts say that the Jat versus non-Jat polarisation helped the BJP gain power in Haryana and that the same thing is going to happen in Maharashtra. That non–Maratha communities will come together against you. What is your take?

This is how BJP politics happens. It is based on strategies. They have think tanks to work on it and implement it. They will try this. But I am of the opinion that this will not be possible in Maharashtra.

The Congress is trying to call itself the Big Brother, but it is a fact that the party is contesting a greater number of seats in the MVA. So, you are already in the role of the Big Brother. Are you happy with the seat-sharing that has taken place in MVA?

The issue is not about who the Big Brother is. The criteria was which party would win a particular seat. We did not first decide the number of the seats. We make a tally of seats after seat-sharing is finalised. The winnability and the presence of the party were the criteria. You asked me, are you happy with the number of seats? So, I would like to tell you that when the Congress was contesting alone, it was contesting in all 288 seats. When we were in an alliance with only NCP, we were contesting for some 145 seats. Now there are three partners. So, it is obvious that we will get one-third of the seats. When you are in an alliance, not everything happens according to your whims. But if we show maturity, and help each other, we can achieve success.

The big issue this time is rebels. They are in both alliances. Would that be a hurdle?

Yes, I accept it. There is rebellion in many places. We tried to convince many rebels. Some listened to us. We are still trying. I am not denying that the rebels will have a negative impact on our success. But Mahayuti contends with the same situation, and their problem is much more severe than ours.

Do you believe the way rebels got elected in 1995—there were 34-35 rebels—a similar situation is developing this time?

No, I don’t think so as of now. Voters are taking a straight decision whether to vote for the MVA or Mahayuti. MVA will have more success this election.

“Onion farmers voted for us in the Lok Sabha election. Will BJP call it ‘onion jehad’? Unemployed youth voted for us in huge numbers. Is that ‘unemployed jehad’? ”

“Maharashtra’s political culture was an ideal in India. But since the BJP has come to power, everything has changed. There is no ideology left now,” says Balasaheb Thorat.
| Photo Credit:
By Special Arrangement

It is believed that when Modi starts campaigning in Maharashtra, it will help the NDA. What is your take?

I really don’t think so. We saw him during the Lok Sabha election. He came here many times but people still voted against the BJP. Earlier the Prime Minister used to address just one or two rallies in each State. There was a negative impact of his speeches. The same thing is going to happen in the Assembly election. Modi’s rallies will have no impact on our success.

In 2019, Congress won only one seat in the Lok Sabha. Today, you have 14 MPs from Maharashtra. In a way, you are the number one party in the State. What do you expect of the Assembly election results?

We won the highest number of seats. I also accept that this was possible because there was a strong alliance. Rahul Gandhi’s yatra also immensely contributed to this success. We, as an alliance, will do well if we stay together.

What do you predict about the seats?

I think, if we implement a good campaign system and control rebels, we will reach 180 (out of 288).

You are calling it a bumper majority.

Yes, we can have a bumper majority.

You are a senior leader of the party. If the Congress gets a greater number of seats in the MVA, will you be the Chief Minister?

My priority right now is to get power for MVA. We will all have to work together. Once we get the numbers, I am sure that MVA leaders will sit together and decide on the Chief Minister.