Three decades ago, Mumbai (then Bombay) witnessed India’s worst communal riots. For almost a month in 1992, flames of hatred engulfed the country’s financial capital—an unprecedented event that has not been repeated since. Even in those dark times, the city’s politicians of all hues kept certain institutions above the fray. The Siddhivinayak temple, home to Lord Ganesha, remained one such sacred line they wouldn’t cross.

Over the years, the Hindu god has become synonymous with Mumbai’s identity. But this election did not spare even the deity from being dragged into the dirty world of petty communal propaganda. As soon as campaigning for the Maharashtra Assembly election ended at 6 pm on November 18, hundreds of messages with communal content flooded all social media platforms. One such post by @MrSinha_, an account on the social media platform X, mentioned the Waqf board laying claim to the Siddhivinayak temple. This account is considered close to the BJP and often propagates material aligned to the right wing.

Opposition leaders criticised this sudden push of communal propaganda. Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Aaditya Thackeray called it “a desperate and shameless attempt of BJP” as “the party is seeing the defeat in the elections”. His party also made a complaint to the Election Commission. Later, @MrSinha_ deleted that tweet but the damage had already been done.

The 2024 Assembly election has been perhaps the worst ever when it comes to communal propaganda in the State’s history. The propaganda started building up immediately after the 2024 Lok Sabha election results. BJP leader Kirit Somaiya made several posts on X on the lines of “Vote Jehad”. According to him, the Muslim community voted tactically in Maharashtra’s parliamentary seats to defeat the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (also known as Mahayuti). He wrote that the BJP faced defeat in the Dhule Lok Sabha constituency because out of its six Assembly segments, one (Malegaon Central) voted with a bumper margin in favour of the Congress even as the rest gave a lead to the BJP candidate, helping the Congress surge ahead. Malegaon Central is a Muslim-dominated constituency.

Also Read | Subdued campaign, sharp divisions: Maharashtra’s electoral battle over jobs, caste, and ‘betrayal’

Somaiya was later joined by other BJP leaders, including Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, the party’s face in Maharashtra. In one of his rallies, Fadnavis even said that the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—the Opposition alliance comprising the Shiv Sena (UBT), the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)-Sharad Pawar, the Congress, and other small parties—won 18 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra due to ”vote jehad”. Meanwhile, the Election Commission, which had been seen as a “lame duck” amidst this communal campaign, woke up one day to say that the term “vote jehad” would not be tolerated.

‘Batenge toh Katenge’ to ‘Ek Hai toh Safe Hai’

By then, another phrase had already taken root in the public discourse: “Batenge toh Katenge” (if we are divided then we will be slaughtered). A slogan first given by the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and BJP leader Yogi Adityanath, this was adopted by most party leaders in Maharashtra. When he was in Maharashtra for the election campaign, Adityanath repeated this slogan. Although this aimed to consolidate the Hindu voters and polarise the election on communal lines, it was also bold, provocative rhetoric.

Also, there are 47 Assembly constituencies in Maharashtra where the ruling Mahayuti (BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP) cannot afford to antagonise the Muslim community. Of these, 12 constituencies are dominated by the BJP whereas 8 are by the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and 27 by the NCP (Ajit Pawar). So, as “Batenge toh Katenge” started gaining traction, reactions from Muslim community leaders started coming in from these constituencies. As a result, Ajit Pawar was the first leader to say that there was “no need to bring this narrative from North India to Maharashtra”. In an interview with Frontline, he reiterated his stance, saying that Maharashtra is a progressive state and such things do not work there.

Not just Ajit Pawar, but even the BJP MLC Pankaja Munde said the same thing in her interview with Frontline. As a leader from Beed district with pockets of influence in the Marathwada and West Vidarbha regions, she is aware that Muslims are a decisive factor in many places. After Pawar and Munde, former Chief Minister and Rajya Sabha MP Ashok Chavan, who recently quit the Congress to join the BJP, spoke out against the slogan. His daughter, Srijaya, is making her political debut from the family’s traditional Bhokar Assembly constituency in Nanded, which has some 60,000 Muslim voters. Chavan’s silence would have affected his daughter’s chances.

The BJP’s national leadership was sensing this discontent among their own party and alliance leaders. So, Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a new slogan in “Ek Hai toh Safe Hai” (we are safe if we stay united), a soft version of “Batenge toh Katenge”.  Although it avoids harsh language, its undertone is just as communal. Defending this is easier for the Mahayuti, as was evident in what Ajit Pawar had to say: “It is like Hum Sab Ek Hai or Sabka Sath Sabka Vikas. There is no communal thing in [it].” The BJP then literally bombarded this slogan from all possible mediums, be it full-page advertisements in newspapers, radio, television, and social media. Although the wording might seem unifying, the slant of the campaign does not change the effect on people’s minds.

Shades of Islamophobia

Besides this, the BJP also raised the issue of the “demands” made by Islamic scholar and All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) spokesperson Sajjad Nomani. BJP leader Pravin Darekar said that MVA leaders had accepted Nomani’s letter stating 17 demands, which included banning the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. Later, it turned out that there was no such mention in the actual letter by the AIMPLB.

Mumbai BJP chief Ashish Shelar also posted a video on X where Nomani was seen talking about Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray as “soldiers of jehad”. But it emerged later that the clip was doctored and Nomani was actually replying to the BJP’s “vote jehad” campaign, saying that Thackeray or Pawar’s battle is for their own interest and that they cannot be the soldiers for the Islamic cause.

Also Read | BJP returns to Ma-Dha-Va formula as Maratha-OBC polarisation threatens its Assembly prospects

After the campaign ended, BJP MLA Nitesh Rane posted a newspaper clip on X wherein Uddhav Thackeray was quoted for apologising to Muslims for the Shiv Sena’s participation in the 1992 riots, which was shared by many across social media platforms. Even some journalists also shared it but had to delete it after Aaditya Thackeray strongly objected to it. However, Rane is yet to do so.

Another fake claim involving Waqf land said that the Waqf board has demanded 80 per cent of the Pune municipality’s land as their property and that many such properties across the State, which are a matter of pride for one or other Hindu caste or community, were being targeted in such a manner. Only the election results would tell how much of this propaganda finds acceptance among Maharashtra’s voters. But this vicious campaign has deeply disturbed Maharashtra’s social fabric, once again.

Vinod Shirsath, editor of the Marathi weekly magazine Sadhana, put the situation in perspective. “Election comes and goes every five years. Society will always be there. To win just one election, if political forces started tearing down the fabric of peace and harmony then it might eventually lead to communal chaos. There is no return from that point. Earlier there was at least this sense in political leadership, but now even the last pole of political sense has uprooted in this election,” he said.

With a budgetary allocation of ₹46,000 crore this year, Ladki Bahin Yojana is the centrepiece in a host of populist cash transfer and welfare schemes offered by chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Mahayuti government in its bid to return to power when the state goes to the polls on Wednesday. The Mahayuti comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (SS) and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

Launched just months before the election, it is similar to the Ladli Bahna Yojana in Madhya Pradesh, which helped the incumbent BJP win the state election last winter. But it is not the only scheme being offered in Maharashtra.

In the last few months, the ruling coalition has announced a series of other sops and schemes, including waiving of electricity costs for agriculture pumps up to 7.5 horsepower capacity, training and stipend for youth, free pilgrimages for senior citizens, and even a toll waiver on light vehicles at five entry points to Mumbai. Some estimates put the annual allocation for such schemes upwards of ₹96,000 crore.

Not to be outdone, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), too, has promised enhanced monthly financial aid for women, electricity for the poor, subsidized gas cylinders, as well as farm debt waivers in its manifesto. The MVA comprises the Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and NCP Sharadchandra Pawar (NCP-SP).

Maharashtra is a politically crucial state, with the second highest number of parliamentary seats in the country. The assembly election in the state comes just months after the Lok Sabha polls, where the Congress-led MVA won more seats than the BJP-led Mahayuti. This is the first state election since Maharashtra’s two key regional parties—the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Shiv Sena (SS)—split.

Maharashtra is the biggest contributor to India’s GDP (gross domestic product). Historically, cutting across party lines, farm loan waivers and farm power bill waivers have been a recurring theme in the state’s political landscape. But experts say the scale of the populist pitch in this state election is breathtaking.

These populist schemes (and promises) come at a time when the state is steeped in massive debt and red flags have been raised by the finance department on the profligate spending on sops as well as infrastructure projects.

Voters in India’s second most populous state say inflation, unemployment and rural distress are key electoral issues and are divided over whether the competitive populism will influence their voting choices. Experts feel that while such populism will help mobilize voters, it does not necessarily guarantee a win.

Women voters

On a hot November afternoon, eight women in their late thirties sit and chat at a neighbour’s home in a densely populated slum in Mumbai’s Sakinaka locality. All except one are beneficiaries of the Ladki scheme. Three of them also received a household utensil set in the runup to the elections from the domestic workers welfare board. They all have varied views on the scheme.

Vandana Prakash Gaekwad, a domestic worker who first found out about the scheme from a YouTube reel, said she feels it will be stopped after the election. Manisha Gaekwad, a housewife, said that she would prefer to see the scheme stopped if in return the government reduces the cost of everyday items such as vegetables and groceries. And Samta Wahul said that “women are smarter than politicians think” and will keep several factors in mind while getting their fingers inked.

There are 4.66 crore women voters in Maharashtra (and 4.97 crore men). Of them, more than 2.34 crore women are already beneficiaries of the scheme. If it returns to power, the Mahayuti has pledged to increase the monthly assistance under the scheme to ₹2,100. Other women-specific schemes introduced in this summer’s state budget include pink e-rickshaws (under which 10,000 women in 17 cities will be financed to buy rickshaws), equipment for health sub-centres for breast and cervical cancer screening, a startup scheme for small entrepreneurs, and three free gas cylinders.

Most of the women voters Mint spoke to highlighted how rising inflation had made it difficult to run households and questioned why the ruling alliance waited till a few months before the election to announce the Ladki scheme.

Keshav Upadhye, the Maharashtra BJP’s chief spokesperson, said that it was unfair to link the scheme with elections because it has been five months since it was first announced. “This scheme has brought about a big change on the ground, especially in rural areas. Women feel self-reliant as they have been using this money to do something of their own,” he told Mint.

In response to a question on concerns over the stress on the state’s finances, Upadhye said these schemes should not be viewed as a “financial burden” and said each state has its own financial situation within which such calls are taken.

An increase in women’s political participation in the last decade has meant that political parties, especially the Congress and BJP, have eyed their votes. In the past, gender-targeted schemes have helped parties win elections. Examples include prohibition for the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar, Mission Shakti for the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, and subsidized gas cylinders under the Ujjawala Yojana for the BJP nationally.

Prithviraj Chavan, a former Maharashtra chief minister and chief of the Congress’ manifesto committee in the state, gave a spirited defence of the party’s proposed cash transfer scheme for women. “There is evidence in international economic theories on universal basic income about how direct cash transfers help women. We promised the same in Karnataka and Telangana and it has helped women a lot,” he told Mint.

“There can always be an argument over where the money is going to come from. But money must be found and must be spent where absolutely needed,” Chavan added.

Inflation, unemployment woes

Several low-income voters, especially informal workers, domestic workers, farmers and fisherfolk, spoke about the introduction of schemes such as Ladki in conjunction with rising inflation, rural distress, and lack of regular employment opportunities. A constant refrain was that the modest financial gain through these schemes is soon offset by high spending on everyday items and services.

View Full Image

Vishnu Laxman Vartha, a 62-year-old farmer from Vire village in Dahanu taluka near Palghar, said that farmers have borne the brunt of rising input costs. “We are not asking for free seeds or free electricity. We simply say: give us a good subsidy on fertilizers and ensure constant electricity supply,” he said.

Sitting on their home’s porch, his younger sister-in-law, Hiroo Chandrakant Vartha, 45, quipped that in remote villages like theirs, getting access to basic facilities and government schemes is a challenge. “This challenge gets compounded when everything from vegetables to vegetable oil is costly,” she added.

Several people from villages near Palghar (including Vire and Ranshet) and near Uran (Hanuman Koliwada (Sheva) and Gavhan Koliwada) told Mint that young men prefer migrating to Mumbai and Navi Mumbai in search of work.

However, concerns over inflation and lack of regular employment resonated in urban areas as well. Ram Kishan Khillare, a 42-year-old construction worker in Navi Mumbai’s Belapur, migrated from his hometown Hingoli decades ago. Every morning, he along with hundreds of others stands at a labour chowk to find work. In a good month, he said, there are 12-14 days of work, at a daily wage of ₹600.

“We have got a one-time safety kit and a household utensil kit from our board. It helps, but it is not critical to our jobs. We need more jobs, regularisation of work and effective medical assistance,” Khillare added.

A survey by MIT-SOG-CSDS-Lokniti (MIT School of Government and Centre for the Study of Developing Societies) published in The Hindu newspaper last month showed that 24% of voters in the state identified unemployment as their primary issue, while 22% cited inflation.

To address unemployment, the state government has launched a Ladka Bhau Yojana under which 10 lakh youths will be trained annually with a monthly stipend of up to ₹10,000. The annual expenditure on this scheme is ₹10,000 crore. The MVA, too, has promised a ₹4,000 monthly allowance to educated youths if it gets voted to power.

Neeraj Hatekar, an economist from Maharashtra, said that unlike loan waivers, direct cash transfer schemes require regular committed expenditure by governments. The MVA has promised a farm loan waiver of up to ₹3 lakh in its manifesto, while the Mahayuti has pledged to increase existing financial assistance to farmers.

Also read: Will Haryana shocker impact Maharashtra elections? Should AAP & Congress unite to win Delhi? 3 key questions answered

“The kind of debt profile that we are in, it all comes down to where the resources are being used. And right now, rural infrastructure should be the priority,” he said, adding that the state has not been able to provide effective basic services such as health and education.

News reports peg Maharashtra’s total debt burden at ₹7.11 trillion while its fiscal deficit has crossed the ₹2 trillion mark. Last month, deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar, who also holds the finance portfolio, justified overruling concerns raised by the state’s finance department.

According to Hatekar, such schemes amount to “official buying of votes” and could only offer marginal political returns as other factors, such as caste, religion, local candidates etc, could override populism.

Electoral stakes

Along with Maharashtra, the Jharkhand assembly election is also being held this month. In that state, too, both the ruling coalition led by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), and the opposition BJP are banking on a slew of populist promises to win. Counting will take place on 23 November in both states. The stakes are high for both the national parties as well as regional players in the two polls.

Sanjay Kumar, political analyst and co-director of Lokniti, a research institute, said that political parties are ‘mistaken’ if they believe that they can win elections only on populist schemes.

“Populist schemes and promises help political parties mobilize voters but they cannot ensure a victory. At the same time, they do no harm either,” said Kumar. “So, it comes down to what is the degree of benefit. I think the benefit is far less compared to what we or political parties generally tend to believe.”

He added that surveys show there is usually a tilt among beneficiaries in favour of ruling parties. “But that does not mean, all of them will vote for incumbents; some also vote for the opposition. Non-beneficiaries voting for incumbents is also sizable,” he added.

View Full Image

In Mumbai, voters are divided over the impact of such policies on their lives and on the election outcome. Anita Navnath Mane, a beneficiary who is a sweeper with the municipal corporation, feels that the Mahayuti government deserves her vote because of the steps they have taken for women. “I am a single mother and the money under Ladki Bahin scheme came just when my daughter fell ill. I could use the money for medical expenses,” she said.

But Sunil Bendre, a 43-year-old auto driver from Bhandup, whose wife is a Ladki beneficiary, said that everyday life for his family in the metropolis is difficult because of how costly things are. “You tell me: ₹1,500 a month comes down to ₹50 a day. What do you get in Mumbai for that amount? Maybe four vada pavs from a cart. That is not even food for one day, for one person,” he said.

Anuja, an independent journalist based in Delhi, writes on politics and policy

Ajit Pawar says there is “absolutely” no chance of him rejoining his uncle Sharad Pawar in the future.
| Photo Credit: PTI

Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar politically broke away from his uncle Sharad Pawar almost a year ago. His claims on the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and its symbol were accepted by the Election Commission but the matter is now with the Supreme Court. He contested as a partner of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Lok Sabha election and could win one seat out of four. This time, in the State Assembly election, Ajit’s party is contesting 55 seats. He believes that the Mahayuti has improved its election position in the last four months and is going to win this election. He spoke to Frontline during his campaign in Marathwada. Excerpts.

Also Read | No need for ‘Batenge toh Katenge’ narrative in Maharashtra, focus should be on development: Pankaja Munde

PM Modi being felicitated by State CM Eknath Shinde and Deputy CMs Ajit Pawar and Devendra Fadnavis during the launch and laying the foundation stone of various projects, worth more than Rs 29,400 crores, in Mumbai in July 2024.
| Photo Credit:
ANI

Also Read | In Maharashtra election, it is caste over crops

Before the formation of the BJP in 1980, the Congress dominated Maharashtra’s politics with the formidable support of Marathas, Dalits, Kunbis, tribal people, and Muslims. The appeal of the BJP’s predecessor, the Jana Sangh, was limited to Brahmins and, very nominally, some other castes. In order to break this equation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the ideological parent of the saffron parties, decided to change tack. It brought its ideologue and full-time member Vasantrao Bhagwat to the helm of organisational affairs in the State. Bhagwat, a Brahmin from Ratnagiri district of the Konkan region, was asked to make the BJP a statewide party. Towards this, he introduced the Ma-Dha-Va formula.

Ma-Dha-Va is a Marathi acronym for Mali (gardener), Dhangar (shepherd), and Vanjari (a semi-nomadic caste from Marathwada). Bhagwat understood the crux of the politics of the time: the Marathas, the State’s ruling caste, which accounted for 32 per cent of the population, made up the majority of the Congress vote bank. The BJP had little scope for getting Muslims, Dalits, and tribal people into its fold. What remained were the smaller castes, which had no political representation in the Congress.

Those were the days of the Mandal Commission (its recommendations were submitted in 1980), which laid emphasis on the “Other Backward Classes”. With many smaller communities eyeing OBC status, Bhagwat focussed on the Malis, Dhangars, and Vanjaris, which were the dominant communities in that category. Thus emerged the first generation of BJP leaders in Maharashtra: N.S. Farande (Mali), Anna Dange (Dhangar), and Gopinath Munde (Vanjari).

The BJP’s strategy to consolidate the non-Maratha smaller castes, or OBCs, paid off. It helped the party expand its influence among the Bahujan. The term “Bahujan” was in use a thousand years ago in the Pali language to describe the non-elite classes. In modern India, the social reformer Jyotirao Phule, himself from the Mali community, used it in his path-breaking essay on the history of non-Brahmins. Babasaheb Ambedkar expanded the concept further in his works.

Also Read | Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024: The talking heads

Bhagwat’s outreach gave the BJP, hitherto known as a Brahmin-dominated party, a Bahujan tag. In 2024, following the defeat of the Mahayuti (grand alliance) led by it in the Lok Sabha election held in April-May, and with the Maratha reservation movement emerging as a dominant political issue, the party has returned to the social engineering days of the Ma-Dha-Va formula to save the day.

The Maratha reservation demand

The Maratha reservation demand is not new, but it gained fresh momentum under the leadership of Manoj Jarange-Patil. On October 1, 2023, following a police lathicharge on protesters that Jarange-Patil led in the Jalna district of Marathwada, the agitation for Maratha reservation turned violent for the first time in its 20-year history (“Maratha quota agitation: A cat among the pigeons”, Frontline, published online on November 11, 2023).

The protest by the dominant community of Marathas put pressure on the State government. Jarange-Patil’s demand was to include the Marathas from the Marathwada region in the Kunbi category. The Kunbi community, which is predominant in the Vidarbha region, comes under the OBC category. In a way, Jarange-Patil was demanding OBC status for the Marathas too. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde accepted his demand and announced a committee headed by a retired judge to look into it.

At this point, the government faced a backlash from the OBCs in the State, who were against sharing the space with the Marathas. In late 2023, Chhagan Bhujbal, a Cabinet Minister in the Shinde government, opposed the government decision publicly. He addressed rallies in Marathwada, where the Maratha reservation issue was central to the political discourse. Jarange-Patil’s rallies demanding Kunbi status for Marathas and Bhujbal’s rallies opposing it split the State vertically along caste lines.

The BJP was already in trouble because of careless remarks made by its members ahead of the Lok Sabha election that the party wanted a three-fourths majority in Parliament in order to change the Constitution. This angered Dalits; Muslims were already preparing for tactical voting, and tribal communities were exploring alternatives after incidents of atrocities against them in Manipur and Madhya Pradesh. With the Maratha bloc also turning against it, the Mahayuti won only 17 seats in Maharashtra as against the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) 31. This prompted the BJP to introspect.

Interestingly, the plot thickened soon after the Lok Sabha election results were announced when a protest by Lakshman Hake and Navnath Waghmare on June 13 over the dilution of the OBC quota grabbed the headlines. The protest venue was Vadi Godri village in Ambad tehsil of Jalna district, barely 4 km from Jarange-Patil’s village and his protest venue at Antarvali Sarathi.

Hake was a little-known OBC leader who contested the Lok Sabha election from the Madha constituency and secured just 5,134 votes. He comes from the Dhangar community, a large section of which has been demanding reservation under the Scheduled Tribes category. He highlighted a promise made by the BJP in 2014 to give the community reservation under the ST status if it came to power. Hake’s protest against the inclusion of Marathas in the Kunbi category saying that it will reduce the existing share of OBCs resonated among members of the latter.

The Lok Sabha results came as a shocker not just to the Mahayuti, which won just one of the eight seats in the Marathwada region, but to the OBCs too. Two OBC leaders, Mahadev Jankar of the Dhangar community and Pankaja Munde of the Vanjari community, lost the elections from Parbhani and Beed, respectively. In this context, Hake’s protest became immediately popular among OBC youth. Over the past three months, a perception has been created that Hake has consolidated OBC support across the State.

Hake has asked his supporters to defeat the “wrong candidates”, specifically naming Rajesh Tope and Rohit Pawar, both MLAs of the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) faction, which is a constituent of the MVA along with the Congress and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena faction.

Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar during a joint press conference at Silver Oak in Mumbai on November 5.
| Photo Credit:
ANI

Meanwhile, in the Maratha camp, Jarange-Patil, who had refused to contest the Lok Sabha election on the grounds that he would not enter electoral politics, was under pressure to field candidates for the Assembly election. He held talks with Muslim leaders, mainly the Islamic scholar Sajjad Nomani, with a view to fielding joint candidates in a few seats. But, by the morning of November 4, Jarange Patil seemed to realise that by doing so he would be dividing the Maratha vote, which would ultimately help the BJP. He decided not to contest the election and asked his supporters “to vote for anyone of their choice while keeping the community’s interests in mind”.

A clear picture emerges

From the outset, Jarange-Patil was seen as a front for the NCP (Sharad Pawar). Many BJP MLCs such as Pravin Darekar, Sadabhau Khot, and Prasad Lad had called him a mask for Pawar. The tallest Maratha leader in the State, Pawar was widely believed to be the hand behind the Maratha movement. However, with Jarange-Patil appealing to his supporters to defeat the BJP’s candidates and Hake asking his followers to defeat Pawar’s candidates, the picture is beginning to get clearer in Maharashtra.

Given the widespread opinion that a Jat-versus-non-Jat binary helped the BJP retain Haryana for a third consecutive time in the recently held Assembly election, it seems likely that the Maharashtra election is being worked along the same lines.

The BJP has tasted success with its social engineering formula on many occasions. In 2016, when Devendra Fadnavis was Chief Minister, the Maratha community hit the streets in large numbers over the sexual abuse of a Maratha girl from Ahmednagar (now Ahilya Nagar) district. The community held 52 rallies across the State, which were seen as attempts by the opposition parties to stir public sentiment against the BJP. At that time too the BJP’s strategy of consolidating non-Maratha Hindu votes in the State paid off. Within four months, in the local body elections (2016-17), the BJP emerged a clear winner, securing almost 200 municipal councils of 320 and 21 municipalities of 26.

Also Read | This battle is for the soul of Maharashtra: Balasaheb Thorat

Political observers, however, point to one difference between 2017 and 2024. Jaydeo Dole, a senior journalist from Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, said: “In 2017, the BJP’s novelty factor under Prime Minister Modi was intact. Also, Dalits and tribal people were not a part of the anti-BJP consolidation at that time. This time, Dalits, Muslims, and tribal people are strongly against the BJP. That is why the 2017 non-Maratha consolidation formula is no longer useful for the BJP.”

According to the 1931 Census, Marathas account for 32 per cent of the State’s population, with Dalits at 14 per cent, Muslims at 11.54 per cent, and tribal communities at 9.35 per cent. Although OBC leaders claim that they constitute 54 per cent of the population, there is no authentic data to substantiate this. However, it is clear that if the Maratha–Muslim–Dalit–Tribal consolidation takes place, accounting for more than 60 per cent of the population, any counter-consolidation will not work.

Members of the Vanjari community participating in a march demanding reservation under the Scheduled Tribes category, a September 2019 picture.
| Photo Credit:
The Hindu Archives

Recognising this, the BJP has focussed on consolidating OBCs along non-Maratha lines while still trying to get a big chunk of the Maratha vote. To achieve this, it has deployed its Maratha leaders to take aggressive stands on religious lines. Leaders such as Nitesh Rane and Pravin Darekar have been vocal on right-wing Hindutva issues, aiming to appeal to religious sentiments.

Another shrewd move by the BJP is to deploy its alliance partners strategically. Chief Minister Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, both Marathas, are campaigning in every constituency where the party has a Maratha candidate. Of the 152 seats the saffron party is contesting, it has given an almost equal number to OBCs (46) and Marathas (44), which shows its intent to avoid antagonising the Maratha community while appealing to the OBCs.

Maharashtra has around 100 Assembly seats where Maratha voters constitute 25 to 40 per cent, 40 constituencies where Kunbi voters constitute 20 to 30 per cent, and around 35 constituencies where non-Kunbi OBC voters make up 20 to 30 per cent. Polarisation along caste lines will matter in these 170 Assembly constituencies, a significant segment of the total 288 Assembly seats. The outcome of this election will depend solely on which caste consolidation strategy proves successful this time.

Maharashtra’s farmers are trapped in a vicious circle of loans and falling income.
| Photo Credit: Bloomberg

Bhaskar Gunde, a 68-year-old farmer from Kandhar of Nanded district, Maharashtra, was returning from the APMC (Agricultural Produce Market Committee) market. He had come to check the soyabean rates. The minimum support price (MSP) for soyabean was Rs.4,892. But the traders at the APMCs were buying it at Rs.4,200. Frustrated Gunde used “chosen words” for the traders and the government at a tea stall where Frontline met him. Gunde immediately defended the ruling BJP. He said he will vote for Mahayuti. “This election is not for the crop, it is for caste,” said Gunde. He comes from the Dhangar (shepherd) caste, which is under Other Backward Classes (OBC). The extreme polarisation on caste lines has superseded all other issues, including the agriculture crisis.

Maharashtra’s farmers are trapped in a vicious circle of loans and falling income. October and November are the harvest months: mainly of cotton, soyabean, paddy, and other grains. The cotton MSP this year is Rs.7,521. As per the State agriculture department, Maharashtra’s cotton production this year would be 19 lakh metric tonnes. The total area under cotton in the State this year is 40,71,000 ha. The market rate is Rs.7,000 to Rs.7,200 per hectare. This is not at all sufficient for the farmers. In the case of soyabean, the State is expecting a production of 58 lakh metric tonnes. The total area under soyabean 49 lakh 86 thousand hectares.

There are almost 18 Lok Sabha constituencies in Maharashtra where cotton and soyabean were the decisive issues during the May election. Mahayuti lost all of them. On September 30, the State government distributed Rs.2,500 crore to 65 lakh farmers as part of a scheme to cover the gap between MSP and the market price. But this money was for last year. This year, the prices are similarly falling. Voting for the Assembly election will take place in the middle of this. The opposition alliance, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is making it an election issue.

“Farmers are really struggling. But the problem is that they don’t see any leader genuinely fighting for their cause. In a way, we have accepted that our problems will always be unsolved. This is why the farming crisis is not becoming the issue here,” said Avinash Tarange, a young farmer from Ausa, Latur.

Also Read | Maharashtra hunger games: Contentious coda to report takes over debate on farmer suicides

In addition to the falling prices, the unseasonal rains this year have dampened the hopes of farmers. The rains of mid-October have washed away the crops in Marathwada and part of western Vidarbha. The State government immediately asked for the procedure of compensation to be started. But the process is lengthy. Moreover, as the revenue department is preoccupied with matters related to the model code of conduct, in many places the basic work of filing reports of crop losses has not yet been completed. The farmers’ anger has doubled with these losses.

Many studies on farmers’ suicides have shown that they take this extreme step in similar situations like these. The National Crime Record Bureau data has consistently shown that Maharashtra is the number one State in farmers’ suicides. A total of 2,851 farmers took their own lives in 2023 in Maharashtra. Last year, a report filed by the divisional commissioner of Marathwada shocked the State: it claimed that the agriculture situation in the region is so bad that one lakh farmers here are on the verge of dying by suicide. The report was labelled as an “exaggeration”. But it has not reduced the intensity of the situation.

The cost of agriculture is becoming higher and higher. A one-acre farm produces around seven to eight quintals of soyabean. The cost of seeds, fertilizers, harvesting and bags add up to Rs.18,000 to Rs.21,000 per acre. Eight quintals soyabean fetch Rs.34,000. This means, the farmers get just Rs.16,000 to Rs.20,000 per acre in their hands in one season. As much as 65 per cent of farmers in Maharashtra are small-scale land holders, with some three acres of the land.

Also Read | Maharashtra Assembly election: Is Mahayuti back in the game?

To pacify farmers, Mahayuti announced Rs.6,000 from the State government in addition to the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Yojana’s Rs.6,000. But this did not help the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha election. The Mahayuti government then came up with more schemes. It waived the electricity bills of farmers who use water pumps below 7.5 hp. These schemes are being welcomed by farmers. But they want MSP for their crops. Yadav Sasegave, a farmer from Vasmat, Hingoli said, “These schemes are helpful. But they are like bandages. We want a sustainable solution. Only MSP can do that.” When asked if he will vote for the party that promises MSP, Yadav said, “Assurances are never fulfilled. But still, we can think about it.”

The MVA alliance has promised MSP. The inflation in the agricultural sector has also made the case tough for farmers. In the last six years, the prices of DAP bags have gone up from Rs.600 to Rs.1,400. The labour for cotton was Rs.3 per kg and is now Rs.10 per kg. The tractor’s trolly rotter machine which cost Rs.6 lakh in 2014 is now Rs.11 lakh. The GST on all the products is also a matter of concern. MVA leaders are raising this issue in each rally. Congress State chief Nana Patole said, “This government’s approach to loot farmers for thousands of rupees in GST and give them back just Rs.12,000 under some schemes is now exposed. People are well aware of it. Farmers will not get carried away such schemes anymore.”

The crop insurance scheme is also under the line of fire. Farmers across the State are complaining about the minimal or zero compensation from insurance companies despite having paid the full premium. Data with the Maharashtra agriculture department clearly shows that insurance companies collected more in premiums from farmers and the State government than they paid out in compensation.

If all these issues become the center of political discourse, then they have a capacity to change the outcome of the election. But identity politics have mainly shaped the discourse. In his prime in the 1990s, leader of Shetkari Sanghtana (farmers’ union) Sharad Joshi used to say that “the farmers don’t have a caste. Farmer is his only identity.” Times have changed and polarisation has complicated matters. This is why nobody is sure whether the grim reality of farmers will really have any impact on the outcome of the Assembly election.

Catch all the Business News, Politics news,Breaking NewsEvents andLatest News Updates on Live Mint. Download TheMint News App to get Daily Market Updates.

MoreLess

 Shiv Sena supporters during the nomination filing rally of party candidate Mahendra Thorve for the Assembly election.
| Photo Credit: PTI

The electorally crucial State of Maharashtra will elect Members to its Legislative Assembly later this month. An electorate of 9.59 crore voters (4.95 crore men and 4.64 crore women) will decide the fate of candidates across 288 constituencies. Nearly 20 lakh people are first-time voters. The ruling Mahayuti is pitted against the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

The split within the Shiv Sena party (into the Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde factions) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) (into the Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar factions)—the two major regional parties—has increased the number of key political players to six. This election will determine which faction of these parties best represents the cadre. The focus areas for the election are progressive identity, the legacy of social justice politics, shifting political dynamics, and declining social indicators.

In the recent Lok Sabha election, the MVA, consisting of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar), and the Congress, secured 31 of the 48 seats while the BJP-led Mahayuti won only 17. This was attributed to the Maratha reservation issue (the Maratha community, which accounts for 30 percent of the State’s population, has been agitating for reservation for over a year). This, along with the agricultural crisis, the falling prices of onion, cotton, and soyabean, and subnationalism will be crucial factors in this election.

Other factors include intensifying ideological battles and the resurgence of erstwhile dominant political families. However, the battle is fragmented across the six major parties in the two opposing coalitions. The outcome will be seen in the weeks to come. In this backdrop, Frontline is on the battleground talking to the who’s who of Maharashtra politics to understand the pulse on the ground. Our correspondent Amey Tirodkar is giving you the views from the ground as well as literally from above (he boarded a chopper to talk to veteran Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat). Here’s a list of interviews we did recently.

Stay tuned, keep refreshing the page every day. We will be adding more.