Lok Sabha – TheNewsHub https://thenewshub.in Mon, 21 Oct 2024 14:20:50 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7 ‘Have 16 kids’: Why MK Stalin joined Chandrababu Naidu in promoting larger families https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/21/have-16-kids-why-mk-stalin-joined-chandrababu-naidu-in-promoting-larger-families/ https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/21/have-16-kids-why-mk-stalin-joined-chandrababu-naidu-in-promoting-larger-families/?noamp=mobile#respond Mon, 21 Oct 2024 14:20:50 +0000 https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/21/have-16-kids-why-mk-stalin-joined-chandrababu-naidu-in-promoting-larger-families/

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin on Monday seemed to echo Andhra Pradesh counterpart N Chandrababu Naidu’s appeal to have more children. While the AP CM flagged the ‘ageing population’ of the state, Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin talked about couples raising ‘16 children’ as a ‘solution’ to the upcoming delimitation exercise scheduled to be held by 2026.

Stalin made headlines on Monday with his unconventional comments regarding the upcoming Lok Sabha delimitation process, which may significantly impact the state’s political representation.

During a mass wedding ceremony for 31 Hindu couples, Stalin suggested that the potential loss of Lok Sabha seats might lead some couples to consider having “16 children,” a reference to a traditional Tamil blessing related to prosperity.

He referenced the Tamil saying, “pathinarum petru peru vazhvu vazhga,” which translates to “acquire 16 kinds of wealth and lead a prosperous life.”

Stalin hitches on Family Planning to Counter Delimitation

CM Stalin elaborated on the historical context of the blessing, noting that elders traditionally wished newlyweds prosperity in various forms—not necessarily a large family.

“That blessing doesn’t mean beget 16 children… now a situation has arisen where people think they should literally raise 16 children and not a small and prosperous family,” he remarked.

This statement comes as Tamil Nadu, along with other southern states, faces potential changes to its parliamentary representation due to the delimitation exercise set for 2026.

With concerns that the state’s Lok Sabha share may increase only marginally from 39 to 41 seats, many fear a diminished political voice in the central government.

Tamil Nadu’s Delimitation Debate

Over the past few months, the looming delimitation has stirred controversy, particularly as the number of Lok Sabha seats is expected to rise from 543 to 753.

Uttar Pradesh is poised for a significant increase, jumping from 80 to 126 seats—a 57.5% surge. Among the southern states, only Karnataka could see a measurable increase – from 28 seats to 36 – in representation in the Lower House.

In contrast, Tamil Nadu’s Lok Sabha share will likely only inch up – from 39 to 41, a five per cent increase, and Andhra Pradesh and Telangana may be given only three extra seats each. Further, Kerala could lose one of its 20 seats.

The ruling DMK has strongly opposed the proposed changes, arguing that states that have effectively controlled population growth should not be penalized.

Chandrababu Naidu’s Population Appeal

In a related discussion, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu has expressed concerns over the state’s declining birth rate. The Andhra Pradesh CM urged women in Andhra Pradesh to bear at least two children to stabilize the population.

“South India is witnessing an aging problem,” he stated, stressing the need for women to contribute to demographic balance.

CM Naidu‘s comments have sparked a mixed reaction, with the Andhra Pradesh Congress supporting his initiative while the YSR Congress Party questioned his vision.

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Simultaneous elections will boost GDP growth, curb populism: NK Singh https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/17/simultaneous-elections-will-boost-gdp-growth-curb-populism-nk-singh/ https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/17/simultaneous-elections-will-boost-gdp-growth-curb-populism-nk-singh/?noamp=mobile#respond Thu, 17 Oct 2024 13:05:07 +0000 https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/17/simultaneous-elections-will-boost-gdp-growth-curb-populism-nk-singh/

New Delhi: Simultaneous polls will diminish non-quantifiable impacts on Indian gross domestic product (GDP), including uncertainty in planning and decision-making, and reduce populism, said former bureaucrat and economist N.K. Singh, a member of the high-level committee on ‘One Nation, One Election.’

Singh told Mint that frequent elections can slow down decision-making and implementation of projects.

“Taking into account the number of days for the model code of conduct, including in the third tier (panchayats and municipalities), we have got evidence that some elections or other are taking place in some states 250-300 days a year,” he said.

“This is a distraction for those in the governing process from focusing on development to managing electoral contexts,” he added.

Singh said elections frequently induce populist expenditure, which is not necessarily productive.

“The quality of public expenditure also changes. The emphasis on revenue expenditure becomes more significant than capital expenditure,” he added.

Also read | One Nation One Election needs at least 5 Constitutional amendments: All you need to know

Last month, the Union cabinet approved the proposed ‘One Nation, One Election’—aligning polls for the Lok Sabha, state assemblies, municipalities and panchayats—after approving a report by a high-level committee headed by former president Ram Nath Kovind, pitching for simultaneous polls.

The committee, which counts Singh as a member, has recommended amending the last five articles of the Constitution to enable simultaneous polls for Lok Sabha, state assemblies and local bodies in phases.

As per the recommendations of the committee, the first step towards the ‘One Nation, One Election’ is to synchronize elections for the Lok Sabha and state assemblies, following which municipal and panchayat elections are to be held within 100 days.

The recommendations also include introducing Article 324A for simultaneous elections in panchayats and municipalities, and amending Article 325 to establish a single voter roll and photo identity card for all elections.

“The next big step for the proposal would be to bring it up in Parliament for discussion. It is for the government to decide whether they will introduce it in the Lok Sabha or the Rajya Sabha,” Singh said.

“The proposal can be referred to a parliamentary standing committee or special committee for scrutiny.”

Also read | Modi govt clears ‘One Nation, One Election’ proposal: 10 key questions on simultaneous polls answered

While media reports indicate that a bill for simultaneous elections is likely to be introduced in Parliament during the upcoming winter session, the government is yet to make an announcement on it.

“At the moment, the cabinet has approved it. Based on the cabinet approval further action will be taken by the ministry of law before it is introduced in the Parliament,” Singh said.

“The process of the parliamentary committee or the special committee that follows would be to hold consultations and then submit their report to Parliament.”

However, opposition parties have called the proposal unpragmatic and impractical.

“Getting consensus from other political parties will take place when the recommendations of the standing committee become available to the Parliament,” Singh said.

“The holding of simultaneous elections to the House of the People (Lok Sabha) and state assemblies will require constitutional amendments. But, if you are also looking at the third tier, panchayat and municipal bodies, it does require ratifications by the states.”

Also read | PM Modi hails ‘important step towards a vibrant democracy’ after Cabinet nod for ‘One Nation One Election’

According to a paper co-authored by Singh and Dr Prachi Mishra, a former International Monetary Fund official and currently a professor of economics at Ashoka University, holding simultaneous elections can result in higher average real GDP growth and lower inflation.

“The findings suggest relatively higher public spending post-simultaneous election episodes, spending that is skewed towards capital compared to revenue, and higher overall investment. These mechanisms are consistent with the evidence for relatively higher growth post-simultaneous elections,” said the paper titled ‘Macroeconomic impact of harmonizing electoral cycles: Evidence from India.’

“These can be explained by direct channels such as the fewer number of days subject to election-related restrictions, but also due to indirect channels operating through lower uncertainty, with spillovers from public to private investment and the broader economy,” it added.

India’s GDP grew 6.7% in the last April-June quarter (Q1, FY25) compared to 8.2% a year ago, reporting the slowest growth in five quarters.

The slowdown was attributed to a lack of economic momentum during the general election, muted government capital expenditure and an uneven monsoon.

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In charts: Making sense of urban India’s political faultlines https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/15/in-charts-making-sense-of-urban-indias-political-faultlines/ https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/15/in-charts-making-sense-of-urban-indias-political-faultlines/?noamp=mobile#respond Tue, 15 Oct 2024 06:14:57 +0000 https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/15/in-charts-making-sense-of-urban-indias-political-faultlines/

The recent assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir has raised a question mark over the reliability of exit poll forecasts again. Some are alleging that electronic voting machines (EVMs) aren’t foolproof, or that the Election Commission of India (ECI) and the mainstream media favour the ruling dispensation. On some such questions about the country’s electoral politics, urban Indians are largely split on party lines, the latest round of the YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennial Survey found.

Held in July 2024, weeks after the results of the Lok Sabha elections, the survey found that those leaning towards the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had a more positive mindset on these big questions, while Congress supporters showed scepticism.

This was the 12th round of our biannual survey, with 10,314 respondents across more than 200 towns and cities. The surveys are conducted by Mint in association with survey partner YouGov India and Delhi-based think tank Centre for Policy Research. Conducted since 2018, the surveys throw light on the beliefs, choices and anxieties of India’s young urban population.

In the latest round, 45% of the respondents were post-millennials (born after 1996) and 39% were millennials (born between 1981 and 1996). Around 46% said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was their most favoured party, while 15% said the same for the Congress.

Burning questions

Did the poll panel do well in conducting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in a free and fair manner? Nearly three in five (58%) respondents gave a positive assessment, while 42% felt it fell short. BJP supporters were the most satisfied, with 67% approving of the ECI’s conduct, compared to only 46% of Congress supporters. Among those who favour other parties or do not identify with any party, 53% showed satisfaction.

 

A larger proportion (61%) supported the continued use of EVMs, dismissing the allegations of tampering as unfounded. The rest were in favour of the paper ballot system as they felt it would be more foolproof. The opinion on EVMs again varied by political affiliation—BJP supporters (71%) were the most positive, against only 46% of Congress supporters. Among others, a majority favoured the use of EVMs over the paper ballot.

Did the media give favourable coverage to the BJP during the election campaign, or did they give fair coverage to all political parties? The respondents were again split: 54% believed that the media had favoured the BJP, while 46% felt media coverage was fair to all. Interestingly, 47% of BJP supporters agreed that the media favoured their party, with 53% stating it gave fair coverage. On the contrary, 64% of Congress supporters felt the media was biased; supporters of other parties (60%) and non-identifiers (57%), too, shared the perception.

Are exit polls reliable?

Public opinion was divided on the integrity of exit poll projections, with 46% believing that the forecasts for the 2024 elections were fraudulent and reeked of a scam, as alleged by the Congress soon after the results. The rest said exit polls can go wrong but allegations of fraud were baseless. Among BJP supporters, three-fifths (60%) trusted the exit polls and rejected fraud claims. But 56% of Congress supporters believed the exit polls were fraudulent. The survey indicates that trust in exit polls is closely tied to party loyalty, with BJP supporters showing more trust in their legitimacy.

Opinions on the frequency of elections and simultaneous state and national elections are mixed. Overall, one in three respondents (33%) believed that holding multiple election cycles is a waste of money and time, while another one-third (34%) said the status quo of staggered elections strengthens democracy. Meanwhile, 19% expressed concerns that such a move could create problems, and the remaining (14%) were unfamiliar with the proposal. The Cabinet recently gave its approval to the idea based on recommendations of a panel led by former President Ram Nath Kovind.

Older respondents were more likely to view multiple elections as wasteful, while post-millennials were more inclined to believe that varying election cycles strengthen democracy. Political affiliation also plays a role: 41% of BJP supporters had the view that multiple election cycles waste resources, compared to only 24% of Congress supporters, who were more likely to favour staggered elections (39%).

The survey suggests that the perception of electoral issues is increasingly shaped by party affiliations. BJP supporters generally exhibit greater trust in the ECI, EVMs, and exit polls, and are more likely to see media coverage as fair. In contrast, supporters of the Congress and smaller parties tend to be apprehensive and perceive biases. The opinion is divided on the question of simultaneous elections and there exists a general agreement on what is expected from coalition arrangements.

(The authors are associated with the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi)

(This is the second part of a series about the findings of the 12th round of the survey. The first part looked at the impact of the 2024 elections on political preferences. Note that these surveys are skewed towards urban, well-to-do netizens, with 90% of respondents falling under the NCCS-A socio-economic category of consumers. Full methodology note here.)

In charts: How BJP delivers a hat-trick despite tough battle with Congress

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In charts: 2024 polls changed the electoral pitch — but only a little https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/14/in-charts-2024-polls-changed-the-electoral-pitch-but-only-a-little/ https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/14/in-charts-2024-polls-changed-the-electoral-pitch-but-only-a-little/?noamp=mobile#respond Mon, 14 Oct 2024 07:19:37 +0000 https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/14/in-charts-2024-polls-changed-the-electoral-pitch-but-only-a-little/

The 18th Lok Sabha elections ended the brute majority that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had enjoyed for a decade. While the party managed to retain power, its fate now depends on allies’ support, and the Opposition has gained strength. The electoral results are also reflected in the responses to the latest edition of Mint’s survey of urban Indians in July.

The 12th round of the YouGov-Mint-CPR Millennial Survey found little change in the BJP’s approval ratings in urban India, with 46% of respondents picking it as their most favoured party. The Congress improved to 15% from 11% in the previous round in December 2023. Despite making its biggest gain in the four years since the survey included this question, the Congress remains a distant second to the BJP.

The survey had 10,314 respondents across more than 200 towns and cities, and was conducted by Mint in association with survey partner YouGov India and Delhi-based think tank Centre for Policy Research. Eleven such surveys have been conducted so far since 2018, each throwing light on the beliefs, choices and anxieties of India’s young urban population. In the latest round, 45% of the respondents were post-millennials (born after 1996), and 39% were millennials (born between 1981 and 1996).

Also read: The political hot potatoes on which urban India disagrees with the BJP

Campaign effect

The survey suggested that the BJP has lost support among some disadvantaged sections of society. Its weakest support was among those in lower socio-economic groups (33%) and scheduled castes and tribes (34%). (The BJP’s support base among the lower socio-economic strata was lower to begin with.) The Congress saw its support improve across categories.

Much of the post-election commentary blamed the BJP’s setback on complacency. The survey found that the BJP reached more voters than the Congress with its campaign, but its mobilisation efforts may not have reached all its supporters, while the Congress’s went beyond its supporters. One-third of respondents said the BJP had reached out to them via door-to-door campaigns, phone calls and WhatsApp messages. Slightly less than a quarter said the same about the Congress. The BJP’s mobilisation was the weakest among poorer Indians and post-millennials.

The survey asked respondents to evaluate the first two terms of Narendra Modi’s government. Around 29% rated the first term as better, against 22% who said the same in the previous round. One-fifth found the second term better, compared to 22% previously. The share of those who said both terms were equally good fell from 35% to 28%, while the share of those who said both terms were equally bad increased from 12% to 15%.

The return of the Opposition

The survey asked respondents for their views about various aspects of the resurgent Opposition. The previous rounds had consistently shown widespread distrust in the Congress’s ability to be a viable Opposition. But has Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, now the leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, emerged as a serious politician capable of reviving his party? Roughly 54% of the respondents agreed, compared to 49% when this question was last asked in the ninth round in December 2022. This suggests a rather limited improvement in Gandhi’s image, which is strongest among the lower half of the socio-economic ladder.

Also read: Urban millennials in India have had much to reveal in five years

What parliamentary strategy should the Congress adopt to counter the BJP-led coalition government? Over half (54%) said the party should play the role of a constructive Opposition and be ready to compromise in Parliament for the good of the nation.

Respondents were also asked for their views on the Congress-led bloc, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), and its ability to challenge the BJP-led government. Roughly two-fifths said the coalition would mount an effective challenge throughout the government’s term. In the December 2023 round of the survey, 29% had responded similarly to the question on INDIA’s ability to pose an effective challenge to the BJP.

About 23% said the alliance should be wary of aggressive posturing as it could turn counter-productive, and 25% said some parties and leaders of the alliance might end up jumping ship to the BJP’s side.

Also read: Indian politics is becoming increasingly partisan. We have the data to prove it.

The data suggests that the BJP has slightly lost support among those in the lower socio-economic strata – which is also signalled by the party’s lower campaign outreach to them – and that Modi’s popularity may have peaked. The Opposition’s image as challenger to the BJP and perceptions regarding Rahul Gandhi have improved, but only marginally. While the disparity between the leaders of the two main political alliances remains large, it’s clear that neither side can afford to be complacent at this moment.

(The authors are associated with the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi)

(This is the first part of a series about the findings of the 12th round of the survey. Note that these surveys are skewed towards urban, well-to-do netizens, with 90% of respondents falling under the NCCS-A socio-economic category of consumers. Full methodology note here.)

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Probe Nishikant Dubey’s conduct over ‘ISI-Pakistan-Zakir Naik link' remark on Waqf Bill suggestions: Muslim body to JPC https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/07/probe-nishikant-dubeys-conduct-over-isi-pakistan-zakir-naik-link-remark-on-waqf-bill-suggestions-muslim-body-to-jpc/ https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/07/probe-nishikant-dubeys-conduct-over-isi-pakistan-zakir-naik-link-remark-on-waqf-bill-suggestions-muslim-body-to-jpc/?noamp=mobile#respond Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:13:59 +0000 https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/07/probe-nishikant-dubeys-conduct-over-isi-pakistan-zakir-naik-link-remark-on-waqf-bill-suggestions-muslim-body-to-jpc/

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Member of Parliament Nishikant Dubey has stirred controversy with his ‘ISI and China link’ remarks about those who have sent suggestions to the Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) on the Waqf (Amendment) Bill.

Dubey has been accused of trying to tarnish the image of Muslims in the name of people making suggestions to the JCP. A Muslim body – the All India Pasmanda Muslim Mahaz (AIPMM) has raised objections and written to the JPC seeking a probe against the BJP leader’s comments.

“There has been an attempt to tarnish the image of Muslims in the name of people making suggestions to the JCP. The conduct of the member must be probed. We understand Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set up the panel on the Waqf Bill with noble intentions to consider views from various sections,” AIPMM chief Ali Anwar Ansari was quoted as saying in a report by the Indian Express.

Ansari has also been a member of Rajya Sabha has shot off a letter to JPC chairperson and BJP leader Jagdambika Pal.

‘Zakir Naik or foreign powers like the ISI’

In August, Modi government faced opposition while it tried to pass the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, 2024 in the Parliament. The government finally decided to form a JPC with as many as 21 members to scrutinise the proposed law. Dubey is also one of the members of JPC.

Dubey, in a letter to Pal, had in September sought an investigation by the Union home ministry into the origin of the feedback to the parliamentary panel, according to news agency PTI.

Dubey, a four-time MP, said the number of submissions was “unprecedented” and had set a global record for legislative submissions.

“Fundamentalist groups, individuals like Zakir Naik or foreign powers like the ISI (Pakistan) or China or their proxies may be involved given that 1.25 crore submissions have been received. If such forces are involved, it would be an attempt to manipulate our legislative process, an attack on the very foundations of our parliamentary system and must be treated as a national security issue,” Dubey, the Godda constituency in Jharkhand, had said last week.

We want to know on what grounds the member made such a statement.

The amended bill provides for a broad-based composition of the Central Waqf Council and the state Waqf boards and ensures the representation of Muslim women and non-Muslims in such bodies. The Wakf (Amendment) Act, 2013 provided that “at least two of the members appointed under sub-clauses (i) to (viii) shall be women.”

“We saw a statement by a committee member (Dubey) that the JCP had received about 1.25 crore suggestions … There was a demand for an investigation of the origin of suggestions as some of them came from those suspected to have a ‘radical Islamic image and alleged links to the ISI’. We want to know on what grounds the member made such a statement,” read the October 3 letter, as per the Indian Express report.

Earlier, the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB), the apex body of Muslim clerics in India, had said the volume of response was on expected lines. The AIMPLB junked Dubey’s conspiracy claims, citing an earlier instance when 4.85 crore suggestions were sent to the government after its appeal, according to a report in India Today.

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