5. The role of RSS

One of the main reasons why the BJP did not get a majority in the last Lok Sabha election was that its parent organisation, RSS, did not participate sufficiently. However, in the Assembly election, the Sangh held hundreds of meetings over the past four or five months and mobilised thousands of people. Fadnavis’s close relationship with the Sangh, the fact that it is headquartered in Nagpur, the leadership and many of the office bearers are from Maharashtra and are Marathi, certainly helped.

6. ‘By hook or crook’

During Modi and Shah’s tenure, the BJP has put forth the policy of ‘by hook or crook’ across the country. They have also continued this policy in Maharashtra politics for the last five years with increasing intensity. They not only used a lot of money, they also consistently had the Election Commission on their side, employed the police, and misused their administrative powers. Moreover, this time, there was also much repression: for instance, the BJP general secretary Vinod Tawde was caught distributing money the day before the polls, the vehicle of the former Home Minister and Sharad Pawar faction’s leader Anil Deshmukh was pelted with stones. 

7. A negligent Congress

Of course, the grand campaign meets held by Modi and Shah and the rallies held by the Chief Minister and both Deputy Chief Ministers, facilitated the victory of the Mahayuti. The MVA lacked most of these elements. Sharad Pawar was their only ace and to some extent, Uddhav Thackeray. The Congress, however, showed instances of mismanagement. They believed that since the people of Maharashtra had very easily given them a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha election, they remained negligent, believing that it will happen again. In addition, Rahul Gandhi was not invested enough in this election.

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A forecast: The stalwarts’ future

Shinde is likely to remain in power in the State, but the leaders with him and his party will not be able to form a united whole. Most of the MLAs will remain with him as power figures for the next five years, but in the future some of these leaders could split and go to different parties. Perhaps Shinde will join the BJP at some point in the future.

Meanwhile, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena will survive, although its strength will be greatly reduced. Because of Shiv Sena’s presence in Mumbai and its roots in the Bahujan community in every corner of Maharashtra, Aditya has plenty of years to carry forward the legacy.

Even if Ajit Pawar and his captains have no ideological stand, there are governors in every taluk in Maharashtra who want to protect their provinces, and might look towards Ajit Pawar’s party. As Ajit Pawar’s sole aim is to be in power, or close to power, there is a high possibility that his party, NCP, will survive even beyond five years. Perhaps there will be a time in the future when BJP and Ajit Pawar’s party will be on one side and the Congress and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena on the other.

The most important feature of this election is that the end of Sharad Pawar’s politics is near. His contribution to Maharashtra has been enormous. For almost six decades, despite obstacles, he has played the politics of power and development on his own terms. But in 2014, he supported the BJP without seeking external support and tried to create a rift between the Sena and the BJP. He made that rift a reality in 2019, broke Shiv Sena from the BJP, aligned with the Congress and virtually wrested power from the BJP.

Modi and Shah worked hand in hand with Fadnavis to make Sharad Pawar pay a heavy price. So, with all sympathy for Sharad Pawar, it must be noted that whatever happens when you meet your match, happened to him. He was and still is an opponent of the BJP’s ideology. However, the fact that Sharad Pawar’s politics will have an unfortunate end is definitely a matter that shakes the identity of Maharashtra.

Meanwhile, Raj Thackeray, Balasaheb Thackeray’s nephew, founded his own party to reform Maharashtra, but even after 18 years, he has been unable to find any harmony. And now the party has perished prematurely. Babasaheb Ambedkar’s grandson, Prakash Ambedkar, who has not contested a single election to win in the last 20 years. Raj and Prakash, both of them have literally wasted the last two decades in politics. They destroyed the credibility of their own parties and the faith of their supporters. History will have to record that these two important leaders with great abilities played irresponsible political games.

Now Fadnavis will be named Maharashtra’s biggest leader. He is now over 50 years old. He can remain a major leader in Maharashtra for the next two decades, of course, if he continues to get the support of the BJP’s central leadership. Under his leadership, BJP will be able to gain power, and in the future, he will likely join the Union Cabinet.

Maharashtra Congress, meanwhile, had very few leaders. Those who happen to be a part of it are Sardars, Subhedars and Sansthaniks. The politics of interests has remained the constant character of Maharashtra Congress. Despite that, second and third ranks will continue to be a part of the Congress party. Disgruntled leaders from other parties will also keep turning towards the Congress. If there is resentment against other parties, people will continue to look towards Congress, because the roots of Congress are very deep within the grassroots of Maharashtra. No matter how hard BJP tries, it is not possible to destroy these roots. There is absolutely no chance that the Congress would become extinct in Maharashtra as it did in a State like Tamil Nadu. Even though the Congress has got only 16 seats now, it should not be surprising if in 2029 a full majority government is formed under its leadership, with the support of the Shiv Sena Uddhav Thackeray group or the NCP Ajit Pawar group.

The most surprising thing is that even though two-and-a-half years have passed since the expiry of the term, the election to the local bodies has not been held in the State. The OBC reservation issue seems to be mired in court rulings. But the truth is that there is a lack of will among all political parties. This is dangerous for democracy. Not a single march or protest has been organised by any party demanding that the local self-government election be held. The Mumbai Municipal Corporation is so important for the Shiv Sena, but they have done nothing either. The non-election of local bodies has definitely had some adverse effect on politics. It must have made it easier for BJP to continue the single umbrella operation and to create a split among various parties.

Now that the Mahayuti is in power, it is possible that the polarisation between Marathas and OBCs will diminish in the next five years. The Marathas and OBCs will be showered with welfare schemes. Perhaps the demand for Maratha reservation will die down, and the sudden rise of Manoj Jarange’s leadership will be contained.

Eknath Shinde says that voters went with BJP for their Hindutva ideology and Ajit Pawar says that they went with the party for development. It has been proven time and again that people want development, but long-term plans do not work to win over voters. So, spending extra money on welfare schemes was a short-term and sure-shot way.

Caste and religion were also used as weapons by the ruling class. BJP sowed the seeds of Hindutva in North India and Hindi speaking States. The party’s campaign did not garner much support in Maharashtra earlier, and the hope is that it will not work in the future. But if the other parties weaken, the very identity of a progressive Maharashtra will disappear.

Vinod Shirsath, author and political thinker, is the Editor of Marathi weekly, SAADHANA.

(Translated by Rahee Dahake)