NEW DELHI: This has been the wettest monsoon in north India in 11 years. The region, often plagued by large monsoon deficits while staring at a worsening groundwater situation, recorded 628mm from June 1 to Sept 29, its highest rainfall since 2013.
That this was the best monsoon in the region in over a decade with the seasonal rainfall just 7.1% above normal – less than the national average of 7.8% – shows that north India hasn’t had a significantly wet June-Sept period in recent years.

Meanwhile, this year’s monsoon season is set to officially end on Monday with India having received the highest rainfall since 2020 and recorded the lowest number of subdivisions with deficient rains – three out of 36 – since 2019. Overall, the monsoon is set to be 7-8% higher than the long period average (LPA), in the ‘above-normal’ category. This marks the sixth year in a row that the country has seen normal to above-normal rainfall in the season. In north India, where showers have persisted till the fourth week of Sept, the plains have received better rainfall than the hill states, with the exception of Punjab, which is one of the three deficit subdivisions with a seasonal shortfall of 28%.
Other subdivisions in the plains have received rains in the normal range (-20 to +20% of LPA), the exceptions being west Rajasthan (excess rainfall) and east Rajasthan (above normal). Rains in late Sept, particularly in UP, augur well for soil moisture for rabi crops which will be sown from late Oct onwards.

The region with by far the highest surplus this monsoon is central India. It has received nearly 20% higher-than normal rainfall at 1,165.6mm, making it the wettest monsoon in the region since 2019. As central India’s output closely mirror’s monsoon’s performance across the country, this is the sixth straight year of normal to above-normal seasonal rainfall in the region. In 2019, the year of ‘excess’ monsoon in the country, central India had logged 1263.2mm of rain, 29% above the LPA. After central India, the South logged the second highest rain surplus in the country. The region has recorded 811.4mm of rain since June 1, 14.3% above the LPA. East & Northeast is the only region in the country to show a rain deficit during this monsoon at 13.7%.
This year’s monsoon was expected to have been propelled by two largescale factors – La Nina in the Pacific and a ‘positive dipole’ in the Indian Ocean. Both failed to materialise. “While these remained neutral, intra-seasonal factors came into play to aid rainfall,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD chief. An equatorial storm system called MJO remained in favourable phases from the end of June till mid-Sept, leading to formation of higher-than-normal number of low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal, which travelled inland and caused rainfall.”

NEW DELHI: One in every two El Nino events could be extreme by 2050 if current trends in greenhouse gas emissions continue, a new study has found. El Nino, a weather pattern known for triggering warmer extremes like heatwaves and floods, is known to raise sea surface temperatures, while its counterpart La Nina leads to cooling effects. Both are phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate driver.
Multiple studies have provided evidence that a consistently warming climate favours more frequent and intense El Nino events, which are known to fuel extreme weather events.
In this study, conducted by researchers including those from the University of Colorado Boulder, US, used computer models to stimulate El Nino events over the past 21,000 years — the peak of Earth’s last Ice Age, one of the planet’s coldest periods.
It was found that as the Earth’s climate warmed since then, El Nino events increasingly became more frequent and intense.
The model also predicted that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates, by 2050, one in every two El Nino events could be an extreme.
“The highest (ENSO) variability occurs in response to greenhouse warming, with one in two events reaching extreme amplitude,” the authors said in the study published in the journal Nature.
An increased ENSO variability signals higher levels of human-induced global warming.
The study’s findings mean a relatively lesser time for people to recover, along with increased impacts to life and property, according to lead author Pedro DiNezio, an associate professor at the University of Colorado Boulder.
“If these extreme events become more frequent, society may not have enough time to recover, rebuild and adapt before the next El Nino strikes. The consequences would be devastating,” DiNezio said.
The most recent 2023-24 El Nino has been linked to global temperatures breaking records for 12 straight months, starting June last year. The climate driver is thought to have played a major role behind this summer’s record breaking temperatures registered across India, especially in the north.
The study’s model was validated against data from fossils of foraminifera, ocean-dwelling single-celled organisms that existed long before humans.
Through an analysis of preserved oxygen in these fossils, the team reconstructed how El Nino drove changes in temperatures across the Pacific Ocean for the past 21,000 years.
The World Meteorological Organization has described the 2023-24 El Nino as one of the five strongest ones on record, causing widespread natural disasters, including heatwaves, floods and wildfires. It also said that 2023 was Earth’s hottest year since records began.
Currently, neutral conditions are said to be prevailing before La Nina is expected to set in later this year, according to the United Nation’s weather and climate agency.