Agrarian issues dominated the Lok Sabha election in Haryana and are expected to influence the outcome of the Assembly election too as a large proportion of rural households in the State are dependent on agriculture. Also, with multiple contenders vying for the Dalit vote this time, there is significant interest in how the Dalit community, which constitutes 20 per cent of Haryana’s population, will vote in the Assembly election scheduled for October 5.

The Congress was the major beneficiary of the Jat and Dalit votes in the Lok Sabha election and hopes for a repeat performance in the Assembly election as well. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)-Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) alliance and the alliance between the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and the Aazad Samaj Party (ASP), floated by Chandrashekhar Azad “Ravan”, are the new fronts seeking to challenge the Jat-Dalit consolidation that currently seems to favour the Congress. The BJP, on the other hand, aims to consolidate the vote of the OBCs and exploit the Jat versus non-Jat divide, a tactic it has deployed time and again. However, it does not seem to have accounted for the dominance of agrarian issues in this election that cuts across all castes, including the OBCs. Frontline spoke to a cross-section of experts, including farmer representatives and social and agricultural scientists, to understand the impact of the agrarian issues on the election.

Both the Congress and the BJP have made references to the minimum support price (MSP) in their manifestos. While the BJP has declared that it will procure 24 crops at MSP rates, the Congress has offered a legal guarantee for the MSP. The JJP-ASP alliance has also promised a legal guarantee for the MSP and minimum wages for farmers.

Farmer outfits like the Samyukta Kisan Morcha, which spearheaded the struggle against three farm laws in 2020-21, say that assured procurement, a legally guaranteed MSP based solely on the Swaminathan Committee’s formula, and farm-loan waivers are non-negotiable demands. There are about 30-35 seats in the better-irrigated northern parts of Haryana where the farmer agitation was more pronounced. These seats hold the key.

Vikas Rawal, professor of economics at JNU, says that agrarian issues could influence the outcome in three ways. First, there is widespread resentment over the BJP’s complete disregard of farmers’ problems: in the past 10 years, it has made no efforts to improve market conditions either by investing in Agricultural Produce Market Committees or by providing subsidised electricity to farmers.

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Second, small farmers have had it tough. Aadhaar has been made mandatory for the purchase of fertilizer, and online registration is now compulsory for selling produce. Third, there is tremendous discontent against Manohar Lal Khattar’s government, in particular due to his mishandling of the farmers’ protests in 2020-21 and February 2024. The anger persisted even after Khattar was removed and Nayab Saini was installed with an eye on the OBC vote. Farmers were repeatedly prevented from marching to Delhi through Saini’s tenure as well.

Rawal said that it made no sense to announce an MSP for 24 crops when there was no assured procurement. He explained: “The whole business of doubling farmers’ income is also a hoax. Mustard prices crashed in 2022. Farmers were getting good prices for mustard for years until 2022, when they resorted to distress sale. The government issued soil health cards. Random companies were enlisted to do soil testing. It was a complete joke. The farmer gained nothing from it. As of today, Haryana has the highest unemployment rate in the country. It used to be a State with the highest rate of regular salaried employment, which has now collapsed as employment is mostly contract-based.”

Jats angry with BJP

Apart from these factors, the Jats, a big farming community, are angry that their representation in the BJP government has been minimal. Rawal said: “The agrarian resentment is going to determine the outcome of the elections. The BJP is in complete disarray. They don’t have a Jat face. And there has been much tussle within the BJP on the leadership issue.” Moreover, whatever impact Saini might have had in mobilising the OBC vote in the Lok Sabha election has since petered out.

According to Ram Kumar, a retired agricultural scientist from Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, the high cost of agricultural inputs and the lack of guaranteed MSP and assured procurement are major issues. An agriculturist himself, Kumar said that the government had earlier declared it would double farmers’ income but never spelled out how it intended to go about it. He said it could have been done by bringing down the cost of production or increasing per acre/hectare productivity or raising the price of the products, but the government has not been able to do any of it.

Ram Kumar explained: “It is true that from time to time the MSP was revised but not in proportion to the cost of production. The farmer is after all a consumer too. The income from agriculture does not sustain his living standards. Due to mechanisation, there has been overcapitalisation of agriculture. Land under cultivation has come down; holdings have become small but the number of tractors has gone up. Whichever government has been in power, the focus has always been on the consumer. The farmer is asked to cross-subsidise the consumer.”

Criticising the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi, Ram Kumar said the Rs.6,000 a year offered by the scheme amounted to Rs.17 a day. “What will the farmer do with Rs.17 when a cup of tea costs Rs.20 today?” he asked.

All Dalit communities, by virtue of being cultivators, agricultural labourers, or artisans, are part of the agrarian class and are affected by agrarian issues. Whether they will move away from the Congress and support the other Jat-Dalit alliances is doubtful. The general belief is that the Chamar caste, the largest group among the SC communities in Haryana, will support the Congress. The INLD-BSP alliance, observers say, is not an organic relationship but one that has been forged from the top. The other Jat-Dalit combine, the JJP-ASP, poses no threat to the Congress. The JJP stands discredited for having dithered over extending support to farmers and wrestlers when they were protesting. Between the two, the INLD is better positioned to win a few seats. The Congress, on the other hand, has a substantial base among the Jats, Dalits, minorities, and some sections of the OBCs.

SC communities to play big role

According to Mahabir Jaglan, a social scientist formerly with Kurukshetra University, the SC communities played a big role in the Lok Sabha election and are expected to do so this time as well. “The Congress got a lead in 13 of the 17 Assembly seats reserved for the Scheduled Castes in the recent Lok Sabha election. The main reason for the swing away from the BJP was the fear that the BJP would alter the Constitution with its chaar sau paar slogan and do away with reservation,” he said.

The Congress is expected to raise the demand for a caste census in its campaign even though both parties are silent on subcategorisation of reservation. Interestingly, Haryana already had some form of subcategorisation among the SC groups even before the Supreme Court’s August 1 ruling on the same.

Jaglan is confident that the Congress will retain its support among Dalits again. There was some initial speculation that Dalit support to the Congress could erode after reports emerged suggesting that Kumari Selja, the MP from the reserved seat of Ambala, was miffed that many of her candidates had not been given tickets and that Selja had not been made the chief ministerial face. Seizing the chance, the BJP reached out to Selja, but she rejected the overture.

There are those who believe that the caste factor does not operate in isolation but in tandem with other issues. Inderjit Singh, vice president of the All India Kisan Sabha, said: “If everything was dependent on caste identity alone, there wouldn’t be a phenomenon called anti-incumbency. In 2019, the BJP did not get a full majority after 5 years of rule; how are they expected to form government again after a 10-year stint? As part of damage control, and with an eye on the OBC vote, they removed Khattar and installed Saini. Even this is not going to bring them back to power because there are reasons beyond caste that affect communities.”

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Singh added: “The Lok Sabha election was more against the Centre. Now, the State government’s performance will be tested. Unemployment has affected every community. We too have a situation like Dunki [a popular Hindi film on the ‘donkey route’ of illegal immigration] where youth are seeking jobs abroad through dubious agents. Unemployed youth are being sent to Israel. Many of them have returned as they were found wanting in skills.”

In December, the Haryana State government put out advertisements for 10,000 positions in Israel. It is little wonder that all the election manifestos promise government jobs, filling vacancies and the backlog in reserved jobs, old age pension, free plots up to 100 yards, free medical treatment, free electricity, gas cylinders, and so on. The promises reflect the extent of the crisis in an otherwise high per capita income State.

Observers say that the triumvirate of jawan, pehelwan, kisan (soldier, wrestler, farmer) will determine the outcome of the election. It is also said that in Haryana, people do not cast their vote but vote their caste. While caste is an important factor, it is not the sole deciding factor any more.