Autumn is calling and the leaves of Kashmir’s famed chinar tree are falling, as if to draw attention to the multiple layers of the region’s complex political landscape. The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC)—the region’s oldest political formation since 1931, originally founded as the All Jammu and Kashmir Muslim Conference and later rechristened as NC in 1939—won a decisive mandate in the 2024 Assembly election, held after a yawning gap of a decade. In a significantly altered political setting after August 2019, there are myriad challenges and a few opportunities for Omar Abdullah, the new Chief Minister of what is still a Union Territory.

Omar Abdullah is aware that the path ahead is not rosy. He wears a crown of thorns as the Chief Minister of a restive region that lost its semi-autonomous status, its Constitution and separate flag, and also statehood on August 5, 2019. That is perhaps why he is making conciliatory gestures toward the BJP-led Central government and avoiding confrontation—at least for now—after getting enough votes to resist the saffron party’s “Kashmir project” during his high-decibel election campaign.

In his first Cabinet meeting, he passed a resolution on the restoration of statehood, which was, interestingly, approved by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha, but it remains to be seen if his party will now move a similar resolution in the first session of the Assembly to be convened on November 4. The Cabinet meeting left the issue of special status and abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A untouched. This was the first signal that Omar Abdullah’s pacifying tone has the BJP’s backing.

While the pressure is mounting on Omar not only to pass this resolution but also to demand the restoration of Articles 370 and 35A in the Assembly, Omar for his part talks about pragmatism. “The people who took Jammu and Kashmir’s special status away from us in 2019 are not going to be the ones to give it back to us in 2024. This is not the Assembly we deserve. But this Assembly will get us to that Assembly,” he said in a recent interview with a foreign media outlet.

In a recent statement, Farooq Abdullah, Jammu and Kashmir’s former Chief Minister and Omar’s father, downplayed the need to restore Article 370. In a marked departure from his earlier stance, the senior Abdullah highlighted the need to resolve “people’s everyday issues” first. “The most important task for the current government is to address the problems faced by ordinary citizens,” he told local reporters in Srinagar.

Restoring Articles 370 and 35A plus statehood

Omar Abdullah’s opponents were swift to remind him that his party won the mandate to undo the changes made five years ago. They insinuated that the NC was “ratifying and normalising reading down of Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution”. Omar’s political rivals described his latest statements as a “U-turn”.

Sajad Lone, member of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly from North Kashmir’s Handwara constituency and Omar Abdullah’s fiercest rival, expressed surprise that people voted for the NC despite knowing the party’s “long history of U-turns and betrayals”. “In the context of political aspirations of the people of Jammu and Kashmir, the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly is the proper institution for addressing major issues like that of statehood or Article 370,” Lone told Frontline, adding that “the will of the people of Jammu and Kashmir is reflected in the Assembly, not in the Cabinet”.

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Waheed ur Rehman Parra, the MLA representing South Kashmir’s Pulwama constituency and a youth leader of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), told Frontline: “Instead of vociferously condemning the abrogation of Article 370 and demanding restoration of special status, the Omar Abdullah-led Cabinet has put a stamp of approval on the BJP’s ‘Mission Kashmir’. In its first Cabinet meeting, the new government should have respected the mandate by demanding restoration of special status, and of Jammu and Kashmir’s constitution and flag.”

Reliable sources in the NC told Frontline that a resolution rejecting the abrogation of Article 370 and demanding restoration of special status for Jammu and Kashmir will be passed inside the Assembly at an “appropriate time”. Sources added that the statehood resolution came up first in the cabinet because “it is the first logical step”, as Article 370 remains the purview of the legislature. “A confrontational approach is not the way forward. An incremental approach is the path ahead. The National Conference stands committed to what has been promised in its manifesto. Give us some time,” a top NC source told Frontline.

In its party manifesto, the NC pledges that it will “strive for the full implementation of the Autonomy Resolution passed by the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly in 2000. We strive to restore Articles 370, 35A, and statehood as prior to August 5, 2019.” The manifesto also promises that “in the interim period we will endeavour to redraw the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, 2019, and the Transaction of Business of the Government of Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir Rules, 2019”.

In its detailed manifesto, the NC vociferously talks about identity, dignity, and development. In the 12 guarantees, restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s political and legal status tops the list. Additionally, the manifesto promises a comprehensive job package for youths; restoring normalcy; granting relief to consumers from inflated electricity and water bills; creating robust health infrastructure and more.

Previously, Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir would be fought for local governance, administrative issues, and “sadak, bijli, aur pani” (roads, electricity, and potable water), as unionists would emphasise the need to delink the electoral process from external factors and the larger Kashmir issue. They would make a case before the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, a pro-resolution conglomerate, that boycotting elections was a wrong strategy.

In 2024, however, the NC has linked the electoral process with the larger Kashmir issue. “We advocate for Indo-Pak dialogue as the best method to resolve ongoing conflicts,” the NC manifesto reads.

“On August 5, 2019, the BJP once again betrayed the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Degrading the constitution, the BJP harmed the constitutional, moral, ethical, and legal relationship with Jammu and Kashmir for electoral gains. For the first time in independent India’s history, a prosperous state was downgraded and divided into two Union Territories,” the manifesto reads, adding, “This act exhibited the BJP’s disdain for the people of Jammu and Kashmir, devoid of any sense of righteousness.”

In the words of Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, the MP from Central Kashmir’s Srinagar constituency, “The National Conference represents the sentiments and aspirations of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. The voters have collectively registered their dissent against the unconstitutional and undemocratic abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A.” At his residence in Central Kashmir’s Budgam district, Mehdi told Frontline: “These elections happened after the decisions made on August 5, 2019, when the status of our State was degraded and constitutional guarantees abrogated without the consent and concurrence of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. We do not accept this degraded status where we feel as second-class citizens.”

Mehdi has been a vocal critic of reading down of Articles 370 and 35A. According to the outspoken parliamentarian, if any member from his party even thinks about diluting their stance on the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy or special status, he or she “will have to face opposition from Ruhullah Mehdi”. The senior NC leader sounded confident that his party colleagues in government would meet the people’s expectations.

‘Political wisdom’ of voters

The last Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir was held in 2014. In August 2019, the region lost its semi-autonomous status and statehood, and Jammu and Kashmir was downgraded to the status of a federally administered territory, with Ladakh carved out as a separate Union Territory. Given this backdrop, a decisive mandate in favour of the NC, Congress, and the CPI(M) is being viewed by political pundits as a resounding rejection of the changes made on August 5, 2019.

A decisive mandate in favour of the NC is less about the party’s popularity on the ground and more about the “political wisdom” demonstrated by the voters to telegraph an unambiguous verdict against the changes made on 5 August 2019, according to veteran political scientists.

Professor Noor Ahmad Baba, one of Kashmir’s leading political scientists, is of the view that Kashmiri voters have “exhibited a high degree of wisdom” to keep the BJP out. “The verdict carries an important messaging that a vast majority in Jammu and Kashmir is displeased with what was done to the region in August 2019,” Baba told Frontline, adding that in a powerless Assembly, Omar Abdullah will find it difficult to deliver results if he does not remain in constant dialogue with his voters and people.

The analyst made another key point about the huge expectations of voters, especially in the Kashmir Valley. “The new Chief Minister must focus on the ‘doables’ first. The regional and religious divide between Kashmir and Jammu plains has sharpened and needs to be bridged with a responsible and responsive governance model.”

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Omar addressed concerns raised about the representation of Jammu to an extent by choosing Surinder Kumar Choudhary, who defeated Jammu and Kashmir BJP chief Ravinder Raina in the Nowshera Assembly segment in the Jammu region, for the post of Deputy Chief Minister.

“The reality on the ground tells a different story. We appointed a Deputy Chief Minister from Jammu, a Hindu who is not a member of my family. This decision refutes the baseless accusations of those who sought to sow discord between the two regions,” Omar said, adding that the appointment showcased “the deep commitment of the NC to the people of Jammu”.

J&K Assembly: ‘Almost a handcuffed creature’

Not everyone seems impressed, though.

Pravin Sawhney, who writes on defence and security matters, said it was a bitter pill to swallow for the people of Kashmir to see Omar Abdullah forgetting and backtracking about Article 370 and telling media that his “priority was to make the Union territory a State”.

“This is a vote by the people of Jammu and Kashmir against the Narendra Modi government at the Centre, a clear rejection of what the BJP did to Kashmir on August 5, 2019,” Sawhney told Frontline. According to him, “the first order of business should have been to seek restoration of Article 370, as the voters were expecting the same.”

According to Mehmood Ur Rashid, Kashmir’s well-known political commentator, “the powers of the government have been curtailed to a degree where the Assembly would be an almost a handcuffed creature.” In his newspaper column, Rashid argued that the voters’ verdict is not “a moment of celebration” but “a catharsis of sorts”.

“The faceless bureaucracy that held sway for all these years (since August 2019) is no less than an affliction for any people. The people have felt suffocated because they had no-one to share their day-to-day miseries with,” the veteran commentator wrote.

Haseeb Drabu, an economist and Jammu and Kashmir’s former Finance Minister in the PDP-BJP coalition government (2015-18), believes that Omar Abdullah will find it hard to administer a Union Territory. “Historically, the NC’s model of governance has been to keep Delhi on its side. However, in a powerless Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, there will be serious administrative challenges for the new government,” Drabu told Frontline. In his understanding, the BJP is under no political compulsion whatsoever to restore statehood immediately, although Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have repeatedly made public statements committing to the restoration of statehood.

Apart from navigating the power tussle between the elected representatives and the Lt Governor’s office, another challenge for the new government is to address issues related to routine governance, provide jobs to the unemployed youth, revisit the exorbitant electricity tariff, control price rise, and deal with security challenges.

On October 20, at least seven persons, including six migrant labourers and a Kashmiri doctor, were killed when armed militants attacked a tunnel construction site on the Srinagar-Leh highway in Central Kashmir’s Ganderbal district. According to the Jammu and Kashmir Police, at around 8 pm, a group of unidentified gunmen opened fire upon labourers associated with Apco Infratech (which is constructing a 6.5 km Z-Morh tunnel to connect the Gagangir area with Sonmarg, a popular tourist resort). The NC government will be under pressure to prevent such incidents going forward.

A political earthquake

Earlier, on a pleasant afternoon of October 8, many people shared scenes capturing a fleet of cars ferrying enthusiastic supporters of the NC on Srinagar’s famed Boulevard and Gupkar roads bearing the party flags. The images were symbolic in more ways than one.

Exactly 19 years ago on October 8, 2005, Kashmir Valley had woken up to a 7.6 magnitude earthquake, resulting in the death of at least 1,350 people while thousands lost their homes either partially or completely. Nearly two decades later, the people of Jammu and Kashmir have witnessed a political earthquake, as the NC won 42 Assembly constituencies, 35 of those from the Valley, in the 90-member House. By forenoon, as it became obvious that the NC would emerge as the single largest party, it was perhaps for the first time since August 2019 that party workers and supporters chanted slogans against the BJP with a “sense of achievement” and without “fear of retribution”.

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The Congress party, which fought the election as a pre-poll alliance partner of the NC, won only six Assembly segments, five from Kashmir and one from Pir Panjal region but none from either the Chenab Valley or Jammu plains. In terms of electoral arithmetic, the mandate has been in favour of the NC-Congress grouping but not winning seats in the Jammu plains remains a major worry for the Rahul Gandhi-led party. Still, with Kashmir’s lone Communist leader Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami winning a seat from South Kashmir’s Kulgam region, always a CPI (M) citadel, the INDIA-bloc won 49 seats, a substantial mandate to form the government. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and four Independents later offered support to take the anti-BJP alliance’s tally to 54.

Even with such numbers, the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly does not enjoy full powers. For all intents and purposes, the Lt Governor will be calling the shots in the near future in what Omar Abdullah calls a “disempowered legislature”.

Gowhar Geelani is a senior journalist and author of Kashmir: Rage and Reason.

The Election Commission of India’s announcement of dates for the long-awaited Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir has triggered a surge in political activity across the region. With the election scheduled to be held in three phases—on September 18, September 25, and October 1 to elect 90 members—the political scene is buzzing after a long time, with candidates preparing to campaign for their first Assembly election in a decade, parties unveiling manifestos, and MLA hopefuls switching sides.

The election is significant as it is the first since the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status under Article 370 of the Constitution and the dissolution of its statehood in August 2019. The people are eagerly awaiting the restoration of a stable State government in Jammu and Kashmir after the six-year hiatus. The results will be announced on October 4.

Mohammad Latif, a resident of Awantipora in south Kashmir, told Frontline that even if the election did not bring complete relief, it would at least get rid of an excessive bureaucracy. “Restoring statehood along with full powers to the Chief Minister will bring significant change to J&K. Only time will tell whether statehood will be restored after the elections or whether the Lieutenant Governor [L-G] will continue to make key decisions,” he said.

In Bandipora’s Bangladesh village in north Kashmir, Ghulam Hassan Bhat, a fisherman, said that while the Assembly election might spur development, the ground situation could remain unchanged. “Unlike the Lieutenant Governor, MLAs will be more accessible to the common man, allowing local issues to be addressed easily. However, we don’t expect significant changes on the ground. For instance, Article 370 is unlikely to be restored unless J&K regains statehood and a regional party secures a majority to pass legislation in the Assembly.”

2014 election and a fractured mandate

The previous Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir, held in 2014, resulted in a fractured mandate. The coalition government of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the BJP collapsed midway, leading to the imposition of Governor’s Rule in June 2018. In December 2018, following the expiration of six months of the Governor’s Rule, the Central government imposed President’s Rule.

On August 5, 2019, the Centre revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status under Article 370 of the Constitution and bifurcated the State into two Union Territories: Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. In December 2023, the Supreme Court directed the Election Commission to conduct the Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir by September 30 of this year, with no representation from Ladakh.

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A senior journalist who has covered Jammu and Kashmir since 1999 said that there was a fresh wave of political excitement, but mostly on social media, after a prolonged period of political stagnation in the Valley. According to him, the enthusiasm on the ground appeared to be subdued for now but it would be interesting to see how this evolved in the coming weeks.

Anuradha Bhasin, Executive Editor of Kashmir Times, told Frontline that the upcoming Assembly election could be more significant than ever because of the extensive changes in constituencies following the 2022 delimitation exercise and the evolving political landscape over the past five years.

“The National Conference [NC] is expected to emerge as the single largest party in Kashmir, while Jammu will see a tight contest between the Congress and the BJP. Despite the J&K Assembly’s limited powers, political leaders are eager to contest to assert their legitimacy,” she said.

As the election draws near, several parties, but especially the PDP, are facing internal rebellions. Leaders have shifted allegiances, primarily due to being denied a ticket. For instance, Suhail Bukhari, who was a close associate of PDP president Mehbooba Mufti and a former party spokesperson, resigned after his candidature was shot down. He expressed disappointment over the party’s decision to support former Minister Basharat Bukhari, who recently rejoined the PDP after stints with the NC and Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference.

Another PDP leader, Aijaz Mir, has also resigned. This was followed by the resignations of two District Development Council (DDC) chairpersons from Shopian.

Dr Harbaksh Singh, a senior PDP leader and DDC member from Tral in south Kashmir, has joined the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) led by Sheikh Abdul Rashid, also known as Engineer Rashid.

On the other hand, former Minister Abdul Haq Khan has rejoined the PDP after having left the party following the government’s collapse in 2018.

Asiea Naqash, former PDP Minister and the party’s additional general secretary, told Frontline that there was a growing demand from the public and workers for the return of former leaders. “We have reintegrated our old leaders and are bringing some new faces for the upcoming election. We are starting on a positive note, aware that every political journey has its ups and downs.”

The PDP’s challenging road ahead

Cracks within the PDP began to surface following the dissolution of its alliance with the BJP in June 2018. The fallout saw 19 MLAs abandon the party.

Mufti, who herself faced defeats in the past two Lok Sabha elections in what was once considered the party’s stronghold of South Kashmir, attributed the exodus of her MLAs to the Central government’s alleged efforts to undermine the party. The PDP’s alliance with the BJP had previously attracted considerable public criticism, with many describing it as an “unholy alliance”.

Political analysts say the PDP faces a challenging road ahead. Despite the return of some senior leaders, the party is projected to secure only three to five seats. For instance, the party’s recent decision to overlook four-time MLA Abdul Rehman Veeri from Bijbehara in favour of Mehbooba’s daughter Iltija Mufti—a move seen as an attempt to bolster her political career—has fuelled concerns about the party’s electoral prospects.

The Altaf Bukhari-led Apni Party and the Ghulam Nabi Azad-led Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), both formed after the abrogation of Article 370, have struggled to establish themselves in Jammu and Kashmir’s political landscape, losing several founding members and senior leaders.

Noor Ahmad Baba, a political analyst and former professor at the University of Kashmir, said that new political parties are viewed as implanted groups and have struggled to gain traction in the Valley. “Many see these parties as mere extensions of the BJP, which itself lacks influence in Kashmir. After the abrogation of Article 370, many leaders, especially from the PDP, joined newly formed parties such as the Apni Party and the DPAP, expecting strong Central backing and success. However, the poor performance of these parties in the recent Lok Sabha election has undermined public trust in them. As a result, many of these leaders are now either returning to the PDP or choosing to contest independently.”

Zafar Iqbal Manhas, vice president of the Apni Party, resigned following his defeat in the Lok Sabha election from the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency. He and his son, Irfan Manhas, are expected to join the Congress.

Chowdhary Zulfikar Ali, a prominent Gujjar leader and former Minister, has joined the BJP after leaving the Apni Party. Usman Majid, Apni Party vice president and senior leader from north Kashmir’s Bandipora, and Noor Muhammad, former Srinagar MLA, too have resigned from the party. Meanwhile, former Jammu and Kashmir Minister Taj Mohiuddin has left the DPAP.

Former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti has declined to take part in the upcoming Assembly election but remains actively involved in party affairs. Omar Abdullah, former Chief Minister, is planning to contest from Ganderbal.In their manifestos, the two main regional parties have made a slew of promises, including fighting for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood.

The PDP promises to abolish contentious laws such as the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) and the Enemy Act. Apart from repealing the Public Safety Act, the NC has promised to encourage dialogue between India and Pakistan.

NC spokesperson Ifra Jan told Frontline that if the people stood by Article 370 and opposed the Central government’s decisions from August 2019, they would vote for the NC; otherwise, they would support the BJP. “An elected government is better equipped to challenge the LG compared with anyone else. For instance, only an elected Chief Minister like Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi had the authority to stand up to the BJP and the LG. Similarly, an elected government in J&K will be better positioned to approach the Supreme Court again for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood.”

The NC and the Congress will fight the election together, with the NC contesting in 51 seats and the Congress fielding candidates in 32 constituencies. One seat each has been allocated to the CPI(M) and the J&K National Panthers Party. A “friendly contest” is anticipated in five constituencies where both parties have fielded candidates.

Analysts say the pre-election alliance between the NC and the Congress will result in growing resentment because of the sidelining of senior party leaders and workers. They argue that a post-election alliance would have been a more strategic approach to mitigate internal conflicts and ensure a fairer representation within the parties.

Mehbooba Mufti has stated that her party will support the Congress-NC alliance in the election provided they adopt the PDP’s agenda, including on the Kashmir issue. Talking to reporters following the release of the PDP’s manifesto, she ruled out any alliance with the BJP, emphasising that resolving the Kashmir problem was her top priority.

The jailed politician Engineer Rashid, who defeated Omar Abdullah from Baramulla in the recent Lok Sabha election, has also announced his party’s candidates for the election. Abrar Rashid Sheikh, Rashid’s 26-year-old son and leader of the AIP’s Lok Sabha campaign, told Frontline that the party would contest in 30 to 35 seats in Jammu and Kashmir. On potential alliances, he indicated that the party leadership would make the final decision but confirmed that there would be no alliance with the BJP.

However, analysts are sceptical about the party’s growing confidence. “The emotional appeal that boosted Rashid’s Lok Sabha success may not translate into similar support for the Assembly election,” said an analyst.

After opting out of the recent Lok Sabha election in Kashmir, the BJP has announced candidates from both Jammu and Kashmir in the Assembly election. Its list of 16 candidates for the first phase of polling is out, but its release was marred by dissent within the party’s State unit over the selection process.

Regional parties

Besides national and prominent regional political parties, a significant development is that the banned Jamaat-e-Islami Jammu and Kashmir (JeI) is also planning a return to the electoral landscape after 37 years. It will do so by supporting independent candidates. A Jamaat member who is in the know of things told Frontline that given the shifting geopolitical scenario, Jamaat had decided to enter the electoral arena. “We aimed to contest the election directly, but the ban on Jamaat prevented it. We made considerable efforts to persuade the Central government to lift the ban but to no avail. Despite the restrictions, the JeI will support its own independent candidates in key constituencies across the Valley.”

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Sarjan Ahmad Wagay, a popular religious cleric known as Sarjan Barkati and currently jailed in a terror-funding case, sought to run as an independent candidate. However, his nomination form was rejected.

The All Parties Sikh Coordination Committee has also announced its decision to contest the election, starting with three seats in the Kashmir Valley.

In Kashmir, the main contest is expected to be among the NC-Congress alliance, the PDP and the AIP, while in Jammu, it will be a close contest between the BJP and the Congress.

Analysts predict a fractured mandate yet again, which may prompt regional parties to ally with national parties such as the Congress or the BJP. They also see the possibility of a hung Assembly, which could result in another election next year.

Irfan Amin Malik is a journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir.