After a decade, Jammu and Kashmir has elected its representatives for the legislative Assembly. The Union Territory’s people have given a historic mandate to the National Conference (NC)-Congress-CPI(M) alliance, with 49 of the 90 Assembly seats. The last time any party or pre-election bloc crossed the majority mark was in the 1996 Assembly election.

In 1996, the NC bagged 54 (if we exclude Leh-Ladakh and Kargil region) of 83 Assembly seats. Since then, the highest number of seats won by any party has been 28.

This time, the NC alone won 42 seats. The BJP with 29 seats occupies the position of the main opposition party in the House. In a remarkable feat, the BJP bagged the second-highest number of seats for the second time, the first being in 2014. In 2014, the BJP won 30 seats (after accounting for the conversion of seats based on the delimitation in 2022). The biggest loser in this election is Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). It won 29 seats in 2014 but was reduced to just 3 seats this time. The PDP lost 14 per cent of the votes (see Table 2) as well, compared with the previous Assembly election.

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The mandate looks like a huge, consolidated victory in terms of seats won by the parties and alliances, but a deep dive into the data reveals many variations. At the aggregate level, the result suggests that the NC alliance received overwhelming support from the people and won the majority, but at the vote-share level, the alliance received 36 per cent or a little over one-third of the total votes only, which is 3 per cent less than the parties’ combined vote share in 2014. However, it is the Congress’ loss of votes that has led to the drop in the alliance’s vote share. The Congress contested the 2014 election without tying up with the NC and received 17 per cent of the votes, but this time the party received just 12 per cent. The NC gained a 2 per cent vote share.

Apart from the major parties, Independents (including the Jamaat-e-Islami and Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party [AIP]) received 17 per cent of the votes, 10 per cent more than in 2014. The other small parties, including the Peoples Conference (PC) and the Bahujan Samaj Party, received 13 per cent of the votes, 5 per cent more than in the previous election (see Table 2).

The region-wise results make it clear that Jammu and the Valley stand for two very distinct support bases. The BJP won all its seats in the Jammu region (29 of 43) with a 45 per cent vote share. In the Valley, it drew a blank. The NC-led alliance won 41 of the 47 seats in the Valley with a 42 per cent vote share. The NC alone won 35 seats, 24 more than in the previous election. These two numbers clearly show that the Jammu and Kashmir regions have given a split verdict to the two main parties/alliances.

The two regions of Jammu and the Kashmir Valley have three subregions each; the Valley being divided into Central, North, and South, and Jammu into the Chenab Valley, Jammu, and Pir Panjal subregions. The deeper we analyse the data along these lines, the more we notice significant variations in the outcomes at the subregional level.

In the Valley, the NC and the PDP used to be the main contenders. However, for the past few years, the PDP has been a declining force here. The party that bagged 26 of the 47 seats in the Valley in 2014 could manage to win only 3 this time. Its decline was visible even in the Lok Sabha election earlier this year. The PDP was once not just an electoral opponent of the NC in the Valley region, it was also an ideological challenger. However, the party’s support base dwindled after it allied with the BJP in 2015.

In the Lok Sabha election this year, a new political force emerged. Engineer Rashid won the Baramulla seat, defeating two stalwarts: Omar Abdullah and Sajad Lone (PC). Rashid’s victory created a buzz because he won from jail, with his son campaigning for him. It seemed to indicate that the people of the Valley were not happy with the two established parties and thought Rashid would better represent their voice. However, the Assembly election did not reflect this trend. While Rashid had leads in 14 of the 18 Assembly segments in the Lok Sabha election, his AIP could not even open its account in the Assembly election. The AIP and its alliance partner, the Jamaat-e-Islami, received just about 2 per cent of the votes. The Jamaat, contesting an election after 35 years, had hoped to benefit from the influence it had in South Kashmir, but all it could manage was a little over 5 per cent of the total vote share of South Kashmir.

NC alliance and BJP: Competing Narratives

Similarly, the AIP, which was expected to do well in the Kashmir region, performed poorly. It received just 3 per cent of the votes in Central and South Kashmir.

The overall outcome suggests that the NC has regained its pre-eminent position after a long time. While the PDP was decimated and the AIP failed to win voters over, the NC succeeded in convincing the Valley’s electorate that it was the only party that could form a stable and strong government and bargain with the Central government for statehood and the other privileges lost in August 2019. Whether the NC alliance will succeed or not, only time will tell.

In Jammu’s three subregions, which are based on geographical variation—Jammu in the plains, and Chenab and Pir Panjal in the mountains—the Congress used to have a lot of influence. However, the BJP broke this trend in 2014 with the Congress’ huge electoral base shifting loyalties. In the 2014 Assembly election, the BJP won 25 of the 37 seats (before the 2022 delimitation of the State) in this region. After the delimitation exercise, the total number of seats in the Jammu region went up to 43, and of these the BJP was in the lead in 30 (the seat conversion exercise was carried out by the Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies [DALES] team after identifying and matching polling booth data).

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In this election, the BJP won 29 Assembly seats: 22 in Jammu, 6 in Chenab, and 1 in Pir Panjal. In terms of vote share, both in Chenab and Pir Panjal, the BJP received around one-third of the total vote share (see Table 4). However, in the Jammu subregion, which has the highest number of Assembly seats (24), the BJP received the lion’s share (54 per cent).

The NC alliance managed to receive just one-fourth of the total votes in the Jammu subregion. The PDP received 0.38 per cent votes—the party had 5 per cent in the Jammu subregion in the 2014 Assembly election. In Chenab and Pir Panjal, the NC alliance had an edge over the BJP.

The regional-level analysis clearly suggests that the Union Territory’s two different regions have also expressed two distinct electoral choices. The NC has emerged strong in the Valley, whereas Jammu, where the BJP has been growing continuously, clearly favours the national party. How this will impact administrative decisions in the days to come is the critical question now. 

Ashish Ranjan is an election researcher and co-founder of Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies.

A first-time voter shows his inked finger after voting in Udhampur during the final phase of Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, October 1, 2024.
| Photo Credit: ANI

Amit Baruah is a Senior journalist and author of “Dateline Islamabad.” He has reported from Delhi, Colombo, Islamabad, and Southeast Asia.

The Election Commission of India’s announcement of dates for the long-awaited Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir has triggered a surge in political activity across the region. With the election scheduled to be held in three phases—on September 18, September 25, and October 1 to elect 90 members—the political scene is buzzing after a long time, with candidates preparing to campaign for their first Assembly election in a decade, parties unveiling manifestos, and MLA hopefuls switching sides.

The election is significant as it is the first since the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status under Article 370 of the Constitution and the dissolution of its statehood in August 2019. The people are eagerly awaiting the restoration of a stable State government in Jammu and Kashmir after the six-year hiatus. The results will be announced on October 4.

Mohammad Latif, a resident of Awantipora in south Kashmir, told Frontline that even if the election did not bring complete relief, it would at least get rid of an excessive bureaucracy. “Restoring statehood along with full powers to the Chief Minister will bring significant change to J&K. Only time will tell whether statehood will be restored after the elections or whether the Lieutenant Governor [L-G] will continue to make key decisions,” he said.

In Bandipora’s Bangladesh village in north Kashmir, Ghulam Hassan Bhat, a fisherman, said that while the Assembly election might spur development, the ground situation could remain unchanged. “Unlike the Lieutenant Governor, MLAs will be more accessible to the common man, allowing local issues to be addressed easily. However, we don’t expect significant changes on the ground. For instance, Article 370 is unlikely to be restored unless J&K regains statehood and a regional party secures a majority to pass legislation in the Assembly.”

2014 election and a fractured mandate

The previous Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir, held in 2014, resulted in a fractured mandate. The coalition government of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the BJP collapsed midway, leading to the imposition of Governor’s Rule in June 2018. In December 2018, following the expiration of six months of the Governor’s Rule, the Central government imposed President’s Rule.

On August 5, 2019, the Centre revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status under Article 370 of the Constitution and bifurcated the State into two Union Territories: Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. In December 2023, the Supreme Court directed the Election Commission to conduct the Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir by September 30 of this year, with no representation from Ladakh.

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A senior journalist who has covered Jammu and Kashmir since 1999 said that there was a fresh wave of political excitement, but mostly on social media, after a prolonged period of political stagnation in the Valley. According to him, the enthusiasm on the ground appeared to be subdued for now but it would be interesting to see how this evolved in the coming weeks.

Anuradha Bhasin, Executive Editor of Kashmir Times, told Frontline that the upcoming Assembly election could be more significant than ever because of the extensive changes in constituencies following the 2022 delimitation exercise and the evolving political landscape over the past five years.

“The National Conference [NC] is expected to emerge as the single largest party in Kashmir, while Jammu will see a tight contest between the Congress and the BJP. Despite the J&K Assembly’s limited powers, political leaders are eager to contest to assert their legitimacy,” she said.

As the election draws near, several parties, but especially the PDP, are facing internal rebellions. Leaders have shifted allegiances, primarily due to being denied a ticket. For instance, Suhail Bukhari, who was a close associate of PDP president Mehbooba Mufti and a former party spokesperson, resigned after his candidature was shot down. He expressed disappointment over the party’s decision to support former Minister Basharat Bukhari, who recently rejoined the PDP after stints with the NC and Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference.

Another PDP leader, Aijaz Mir, has also resigned. This was followed by the resignations of two District Development Council (DDC) chairpersons from Shopian.

Dr Harbaksh Singh, a senior PDP leader and DDC member from Tral in south Kashmir, has joined the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) led by Sheikh Abdul Rashid, also known as Engineer Rashid.

On the other hand, former Minister Abdul Haq Khan has rejoined the PDP after having left the party following the government’s collapse in 2018.

Asiea Naqash, former PDP Minister and the party’s additional general secretary, told Frontline that there was a growing demand from the public and workers for the return of former leaders. “We have reintegrated our old leaders and are bringing some new faces for the upcoming election. We are starting on a positive note, aware that every political journey has its ups and downs.”

The PDP’s challenging road ahead

Cracks within the PDP began to surface following the dissolution of its alliance with the BJP in June 2018. The fallout saw 19 MLAs abandon the party.

Mufti, who herself faced defeats in the past two Lok Sabha elections in what was once considered the party’s stronghold of South Kashmir, attributed the exodus of her MLAs to the Central government’s alleged efforts to undermine the party. The PDP’s alliance with the BJP had previously attracted considerable public criticism, with many describing it as an “unholy alliance”.

Political analysts say the PDP faces a challenging road ahead. Despite the return of some senior leaders, the party is projected to secure only three to five seats. For instance, the party’s recent decision to overlook four-time MLA Abdul Rehman Veeri from Bijbehara in favour of Mehbooba’s daughter Iltija Mufti—a move seen as an attempt to bolster her political career—has fuelled concerns about the party’s electoral prospects.

The Altaf Bukhari-led Apni Party and the Ghulam Nabi Azad-led Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), both formed after the abrogation of Article 370, have struggled to establish themselves in Jammu and Kashmir’s political landscape, losing several founding members and senior leaders.

Noor Ahmad Baba, a political analyst and former professor at the University of Kashmir, said that new political parties are viewed as implanted groups and have struggled to gain traction in the Valley. “Many see these parties as mere extensions of the BJP, which itself lacks influence in Kashmir. After the abrogation of Article 370, many leaders, especially from the PDP, joined newly formed parties such as the Apni Party and the DPAP, expecting strong Central backing and success. However, the poor performance of these parties in the recent Lok Sabha election has undermined public trust in them. As a result, many of these leaders are now either returning to the PDP or choosing to contest independently.”

Zafar Iqbal Manhas, vice president of the Apni Party, resigned following his defeat in the Lok Sabha election from the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency. He and his son, Irfan Manhas, are expected to join the Congress.

Chowdhary Zulfikar Ali, a prominent Gujjar leader and former Minister, has joined the BJP after leaving the Apni Party. Usman Majid, Apni Party vice president and senior leader from north Kashmir’s Bandipora, and Noor Muhammad, former Srinagar MLA, too have resigned from the party. Meanwhile, former Jammu and Kashmir Minister Taj Mohiuddin has left the DPAP.

Former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti has declined to take part in the upcoming Assembly election but remains actively involved in party affairs. Omar Abdullah, former Chief Minister, is planning to contest from Ganderbal.In their manifestos, the two main regional parties have made a slew of promises, including fighting for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood.

The PDP promises to abolish contentious laws such as the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) and the Enemy Act. Apart from repealing the Public Safety Act, the NC has promised to encourage dialogue between India and Pakistan.

NC spokesperson Ifra Jan told Frontline that if the people stood by Article 370 and opposed the Central government’s decisions from August 2019, they would vote for the NC; otherwise, they would support the BJP. “An elected government is better equipped to challenge the LG compared with anyone else. For instance, only an elected Chief Minister like Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi had the authority to stand up to the BJP and the LG. Similarly, an elected government in J&K will be better positioned to approach the Supreme Court again for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood.”

The NC and the Congress will fight the election together, with the NC contesting in 51 seats and the Congress fielding candidates in 32 constituencies. One seat each has been allocated to the CPI(M) and the J&K National Panthers Party. A “friendly contest” is anticipated in five constituencies where both parties have fielded candidates.

Analysts say the pre-election alliance between the NC and the Congress will result in growing resentment because of the sidelining of senior party leaders and workers. They argue that a post-election alliance would have been a more strategic approach to mitigate internal conflicts and ensure a fairer representation within the parties.

Mehbooba Mufti has stated that her party will support the Congress-NC alliance in the election provided they adopt the PDP’s agenda, including on the Kashmir issue. Talking to reporters following the release of the PDP’s manifesto, she ruled out any alliance with the BJP, emphasising that resolving the Kashmir problem was her top priority.

The jailed politician Engineer Rashid, who defeated Omar Abdullah from Baramulla in the recent Lok Sabha election, has also announced his party’s candidates for the election. Abrar Rashid Sheikh, Rashid’s 26-year-old son and leader of the AIP’s Lok Sabha campaign, told Frontline that the party would contest in 30 to 35 seats in Jammu and Kashmir. On potential alliances, he indicated that the party leadership would make the final decision but confirmed that there would be no alliance with the BJP.

However, analysts are sceptical about the party’s growing confidence. “The emotional appeal that boosted Rashid’s Lok Sabha success may not translate into similar support for the Assembly election,” said an analyst.

After opting out of the recent Lok Sabha election in Kashmir, the BJP has announced candidates from both Jammu and Kashmir in the Assembly election. Its list of 16 candidates for the first phase of polling is out, but its release was marred by dissent within the party’s State unit over the selection process.

Regional parties

Besides national and prominent regional political parties, a significant development is that the banned Jamaat-e-Islami Jammu and Kashmir (JeI) is also planning a return to the electoral landscape after 37 years. It will do so by supporting independent candidates. A Jamaat member who is in the know of things told Frontline that given the shifting geopolitical scenario, Jamaat had decided to enter the electoral arena. “We aimed to contest the election directly, but the ban on Jamaat prevented it. We made considerable efforts to persuade the Central government to lift the ban but to no avail. Despite the restrictions, the JeI will support its own independent candidates in key constituencies across the Valley.”

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Sarjan Ahmad Wagay, a popular religious cleric known as Sarjan Barkati and currently jailed in a terror-funding case, sought to run as an independent candidate. However, his nomination form was rejected.

The All Parties Sikh Coordination Committee has also announced its decision to contest the election, starting with three seats in the Kashmir Valley.

In Kashmir, the main contest is expected to be among the NC-Congress alliance, the PDP and the AIP, while in Jammu, it will be a close contest between the BJP and the Congress.

Analysts predict a fractured mandate yet again, which may prompt regional parties to ally with national parties such as the Congress or the BJP. They also see the possibility of a hung Assembly, which could result in another election next year.

Irfan Amin Malik is a journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir.