Jammu and Kashmir Election – TheNewsHub https://thenewshub.in Tue, 15 Oct 2024 10:46:12 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7 This mandate is against the unilateral changes initiated by New Delhi after 2019: Mirwaiz Umar Farooq https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/15/this-mandate-is-against-the-unilateral-changes-initiated-by-new-delhi-after-2019-mirwaiz-umar-farooq/ https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/15/this-mandate-is-against-the-unilateral-changes-initiated-by-new-delhi-after-2019-mirwaiz-umar-farooq/?noamp=mobile#respond Tue, 15 Oct 2024 10:46:12 +0000 https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/15/this-mandate-is-against-the-unilateral-changes-initiated-by-new-delhi-after-2019-mirwaiz-umar-farooq/

Hurriyat Conference Chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, the religious head of Kashmiri Muslims, talks to Amit Baruah in this episode of the Frontline Conversations podcast at his home in Nigeen, Srinagar. After years of house arrest, he shares his views on Kashmir’s current situation and its future. The Mirwaiz discusses the recent elections in Kashmir, calling them a “consolidated ballot” against the changes made by New Delhi since 2019. He says people voted to show they reject these changes, not because they’re happy with the “Naya Kashmir” idea. He talks about how the BJP government’s actions have affected Kashmir.

The Mirwaiz believes that removing Article 370 hasn’t solved any problems. Instead, he thinks it has made the Kashmir issue more international, with China now involved because of Ladakh. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq compares the current BJP government with Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s time. He remembers Vajpayee’s efforts to solve the Kashmir issue “within the ambit of insaniyat” (humanity). The Mirwaiz sees the current government’s approach as very different, saying it wants to “finish the identity of the people of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).”

LISTEN |

Amit Baruah in conversation with Mirwaiz Umar Farooq about the recently-concluded Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir.
| Video Credit:
Interview by Amit Baruah; Editing by Samson Ronald K.; Supervising producer: Jinoy Jose P.

Edited transcript of the podcast:


In your sermon on Friday (October 11, 2024), you referred to a consolidated ballot being cast by the people of Kashmir. Could you explain what you mean by that?


You have to understand the context of these elections. Although Hurriyat has always maintained that elections, civic elections, and the overall Kashmir issue are two different things, it’s true that in the past, the Hurriyat Conference used to boycott the elections. This was because New Delhi often highlighted these elections as an alternative to a political solution or settlement of Kashmir. That’s why we used to distance ourselves from this process. We used to say that elections can be for governance, for “sadak, bijli, paani” (roads, electricity, water), but elections cannot substitute for a conflict management process.

Although this election is also for the civic legislature, I think the focus has shifted completely after the post-2019 situation. This mandate or voting pattern shown by the people is a clear indication that it’s a mandate against the unilateral changes initiated by New Delhi after 2019. It’s rejecting the impression that the government of India is giving—that post-2019, some “Naya Kashmir” (New Kashmir) has been developed and people are satisfied and happy with what’s going on on the ground.

People felt it was important to send a consolidated message by voting for one party. This might not have been the best choice given NC’s past, but given the present situation, people thought it better to consolidate behind one party. This party can, to some extent, try to reverse this process of disempowerment which has happened over the last five to six years.

It was a voice against the fact that people have been disempowered. People are concerned about their land rights, jobs, and their cultural and religious identity. There has been an overall assault on every aspect of Kashmiri life over the last five to six years. This time, the election was more about Kashmiris giving a united message to New Delhi that we reject those unilateral changes. It’s a vote against the BJP and against the policies of the Narendra Modi government.


There were other candidates who pretended to be separatists as well, and they were roundly rejected, as was the PDP (Peoples Democratic Party).


I think the PDP’s rejection is obviously because of their alliance with the BJP in 2014. People feel that this party is responsible for bringing the BJP into Kashmir politics. There was anger against that.

Regarding other parties, there was an impression among the people that suddenly we saw so many players coming into the electoral arena. It felt at times that there were more candidates than voters. People thought it was some sort of ploy on the part of New Delhi to consolidate the mandate in Jammu and completely disintegrate the mandate in the Valley, creating division within the community here.

Look at what happened post-elections—the way five more council Members were introduced in the Assembly, the gerrymandering of constituencies. The people of Kashmir were aware of what games New Delhi is playing.

It’s very clear that, to a large extent, people believe the National Conference (NC) is mainly responsible for the problems in Jammu and Kashmir since 1947. But if you ask me why they voted for NC, I think right now people felt they had to choose a lesser evil. Even the NC wasn’t expecting to get so many seats on their own.

The vote this time defines people’s anger. It also puts the NC in a position where they can’t undermine the people’s mandate. They have a clear mandate on what issues they have to take up with the Central government—the issues of Article 370, Article 35A, identity issues, land, jobs, statehood, and all those constitutional commitments that New Delhi had made to the people of Jammu and Kashmir. So I think this time, the election was quite different compared to the usual sadak, bijli, paani issues.

Also Read | Kashmir’s guarded optimism 


What is your assessment of the events of August 5, 2019? What was the driving force? And after that, also the changes in the Assembly? Was the objective to get a Chief Minister from outside the valley? Or is there an ideological underpinning that drives the BJP and RSS?


If you look at the focus of the BJP, they’ve always claimed that Article 370 has been responsible for separatism. But I don’t understand this; there’s absolutely no link between Article 370 and the separatist movement or the people’s movement. The youth who died, even the people who took up arms or went to jail, were not concerned about Article 370 because that was never their agenda.

We understand why BJP was projecting it as something significant. They were trying to give an impression to the rest of India that because of Article 370, Kashmir had a separate constitution and separate legislation. Although all those things were already diluted completely by the Congress and the National Conference, only a skeleton remained. They were trying to give this impression of Ek Pradhan, Ek Nishan, Ek Samvidhan (One Prime Minister, One Flag, One Constitution), that Kashmir is somehow special and not fully integrated into India.

Article 370 was already hollowed out. I think they used it to give an impression that removing it would integrate Kashmiris into mainstream India, which obviously is not the case. That’s what we’ve been saying—as long as the erstwhile State of J&K, including Ladakh, Azad Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan, remains divided, the situation won’t change.

Whatever the BJP aims to do or intends to sell, the fact remains that as long as there is one area with Pakistan, one area with India, and now post-2019, one area effectively with China (referring to Ladakh), the issue remains internationalised. China has also condemned India’s unilateral decision. So, contrary to the BJP’s belief that they’ve made it an internal matter, we believe they’ve internationalised it further. China was not a player before; now they’re a direct player because they control a territory of J&K.


How would you assess a Prime Minister like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who was also from the BJP, compared to Mr. Narendra Modi and his policies? You were all part of a process at that time. So how do you see it? Are these two different BJPs, or is it one BJP which didn’t have a majority then, and now is far more strengthened and has more authority?


To be honest, I don’t think that even if Vajpayee had the majority, he would have gone the way Mr. Modi has. I think Vajpayee, despite whatever differences we might have had regarding his role with Babri Masjid and other issues, to some extent understood that this problem is a legacy of the past that we have to address.

I remember meeting Vajpayee when he was Prime Minister. I was very young, probably in the late 1990s. We had gone to see him with Professor Sahib, and he said two things I remember. He said, “Is gutthi ko suljhana hai” (We must resolve this knot). He even said, “Agar hume alag bhi hona hai, to bhai ke tarah hona hai, dushman ke tarah nahi” (Even if we have to separate, we’ll do so as brothers, not as enemies).

When he became the Prime Minister, he understood that there had to be an internal process with the people of Kashmir and an external process with Pakistan. That’s why he took that bus trip to Pakistan. Unfortunately, issues like Kargil happened after that, which shouldn’t have.

I think the old BJP understood that there’s a political dimension, a human dimension, and a historical dimension to this whole problem, and that’s where they wanted to move forward. For example, I remember we were talking about the Constitution, and we were of the view that there should be unconditional talks. Vajpayee was also of this view. When the question of “within the constitution or outside the constitution” came up, he coined the term “within the ambit of insaniyat” (humanity). He said we would talk within the ambit of humanity, and that settled the discourse completely. It addressed all reservations.


Now, how do you see the BJP?


I think it’s completely different now. They want to completely finish the identity of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. They don’t realise that Kashmir is the only Muslim-dominated State. We are watching what’s happening with the rest of the Muslims in India as well over the last five years—the way their houses are being bulldozed, what’s happening in UP [Uttar Pradesh], what’s happening with madrasahs, what’s happening with the Waqf, the JPC [Joint Parliamentary Committee], and everything.

The people of Kashmir are more wary today. During the Congress or Vajpayee’s time, at least there was a secular India we were looking at. Now it’s a completely Hinduized and Hindutva India we’re looking at. So how can we expect Kashmiris to feel closer to New Delhi compared to before, given their current policies?

There is strong resentment in Kashmir regarding policies towards Muslims and how minorities are being treated. Jammu and Kashmir people are very politically aware because we live in a conflict, we are part of a conflict. People are looking at what’s happening in India, in the Parliament, in the streets of UP and other places.

Even for the Parliament, they connected Ladakh with some other seats. The whole exercise seems to be about how the Muslim vote could be limited and the other vote could be strengthened. I think this communal politics is a very dangerous game which the BJP is playing with J&K.

Muslim devotees gathered while Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, released after four years of house arrest, delivered the sermon at Jamia Masjid in downtown Srinagar on September 22, 2023.
| Photo Credit:
NISSAR AHMAD


What is your sense of how this government will fare, given that its powers are severely impaired and the Centre is very much strengthened?


I think it will be a constant struggle for them to do anything on the ground. Even Class IV employees (meaning peons and such) are now under the Central government’s control. People understand what motive the BJP has vis-à-vis Jammu and Kashmir and where they come from. But I think to some extent, at least now that people have chosen these representatives, there will be some resistance. Until now, it was completely one-way; there was no setup, no authority, no framework.

I feel the BJP has to see beyond electoral gains and benefits. In terms of India’s interest and national interest, I don’t think what they’re doing in Kashmir or Jammu and Kashmir is helping their national cause. On one hand, India’s concept is to integrate everyone, but on the other hand, they’re completely isolating a state, isolating a population.

I believe that the gap between New Delhi and Srinagar has widened more compared to the times when there was militancy and violence on the ground. Today, I’m sorry to say this, but there is hate because of what the state of India is doing in Kashmir.

The sad part is, I’m not talking about only Congress, but other parties as well. It seems all the regional parties, all the other parties, nobody’s questioning anything on Kashmir. Even parties like Aam Aadmi Party, who earlier spoke about Article 370, are now silent.


So you think that this government will have to tread very carefully in Srinagar?


I think so. I think it’s not going to be easy for them because people have expectations. We see what’s happening in Delhi with [Arvind] Kejriwal, [Manish] Sisodia, and others protesting on the streets every day. I think, at least in Kashmir, there will be some resistance to Central policies.

Also Read | Can you have peace minus the people?: Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami


You were in detention for a long time. You were not allowed to even go to the Jama Masjid to deliver your sermon. So what is the situation now?


Since August 4, 2019, till September of 2023, for four and a half years, I was completely under house arrest. This arrest was completely arbitrary and illegal. There was no case, nothing at all. They would just block my gate and not let anybody in. Anyway, we went to the court, and that process started. Now, relatively, I’m able to move. But again, from time to time, it’s completely at their beck and call. Anytime they can block my gate, anytime they’ll tell me that I’m not allowed to move out. So there is no guarantee.

Previously, I would give programs. We had religious programs, social programs, and political programs. Now it’s very limited because many of the Hurriyat constituents have been banned post-2019. Structurally, the Hurriyat is weakened, but I think emotionally and as far as the aspirational point of Kashmir is concerned, Hurriyat will be there. Hurriyat is not a party, it’s a concept. In the 1930s, it was the Muslim Conference, then it was Mahaz-e-Rai Shumari, then it was others, and it was Sheikh Abdullah at one time. So it keeps on changing. Maybe they might demolish the structure of the Hurriyat, but the sentiment of the Hurriyat is not going to be destroyed because there is a genuine feeling among the people that this problem has to be addressed once and for all—its political dimension, human dimension.

I’ve been limited because I was not allowed to meet the press also. Even now, I’m sure if you had come with a camera, they would not have allowed you here. My movements are very monitored. They say I have security threats and concerns, but if there are security threats and concerns for everybody, everybody else moves. But I’m asked to stay at home. So there’s obviously more to it. They want me to be more confined to my house.

But anyway, wherever I get a chance, we are talking. We are giving this message that look, even last Friday, I said that the way in which we are projected by New Delhi, by the BJP—as separatists, as anti-India—is sad. I said that we believe that it is in the national interest of the people of India to address this problem. So who is anti-national? We don’t want violence, we don’t want our youth to pick up guns. We don’t want them to get consumed in the violence or the conflict. But we do want this problem to have a fair closure.

This is the third or fourth generation which is dealing with this issue. As long as one part is with India and one with Pakistan, this issue will remain alive. Whatever internal changes they might make, whatever structural changes they might make, the problem is still very much there. This problem is not going to go unless we devise a mechanism.

That’s why we remind Mr. Modi from time to time that you had a mechanism where you were talking, you were addressing the issue. We had reached some conclusions. We were talking about soft borders, bus services, trade, an end to militancy, end to violence. I think that is something that maybe, if not from this BJP, but maybe after that, whichever dispensation comes, and I hope the regional parties and other parties also realise that unilateral actions won’t solve the issue. Despite India-Pakistan bilateral talks, unilateral changes were made.


What you are saying is that when the bilateral process has not worked, how…


Exactly, how will Kashmiris accept that?

Amit Baruah is a senior journalist and author of Dateline Islamabad. He has reported from Delhi, Colombo, Islamabad, and Southeast Asia.

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Kashmir election: Quest for electoral autonomy versus social engineering-led development https://thenewshub.in/2024/09/30/kashmir-election-quest-for-electoral-autonomy-versus-social-engineering-led-development/ https://thenewshub.in/2024/09/30/kashmir-election-quest-for-electoral-autonomy-versus-social-engineering-led-development/?noamp=mobile#respond Mon, 30 Sep 2024 11:17:23 +0000 https://thenewshub.in/2024/09/30/kashmir-election-quest-for-electoral-autonomy-versus-social-engineering-led-development/

The Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir is happening after 10 years, and the people have voted not merely to elect their representatives or their government but also to participate in elections and draw attention to some of the challenges they face. The voting happened in three phases, on September 18, 25, and October 1. Unlike in the past, the participation of voters in this election is widely perceived as a vote for change, for a return to statehood, and to bring back the voices of civil society and political parties. Moreover, the people are voting for the politics of recognition and the politics of redistribution.

Some months ago in Shopian, Gulzar, in his early 30s, had just entered his house and closed the main gate when a person from an Army convoy came to him, sought his ID card, and ordered him to come to their camp. At the camp, Gulzar was asked to cut his long hair since, according to the Army man, only militants have long hair. Much against his will, Gulzar cut his hair to protect himself from conflict.

The whys of the vote in Kashmir

Gulzar’s story is not unique in Kashmir, but what is important is that in this election, all his family members voted, the women doing so for the first time, but Gulzar did not vote. He believes that the state did not treat him as a free citizen, so he refused to participate. His elder brother, who runs a small business, said he voted for an Independent although he thinks the National Conference (NC) candidate and a rebel of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have a better chance of winning in his constituency. But he hopes that the independent candidate, being a local person, will hear him out whenever he has problems. With no boycotts announced by any group, this Assembly election has seen a high turnout in Shopian in South Kashmir.

Not just Shopian, but other districts such as Kulgam and Pulwama have also seen among the highest voter turnouts in this election, which is significant for three reasons. First, this region has been a hotbed of militancy and seen many street protests in the past years, mainly after the Burhan Wani encounter killing in 2016.

Also Read | Anantnag-Rajouri: New seat, old battles

Second, the PDP has a strong base in this region; the party won 12 out of 16 Assembly seats in South Kashmir in both the 2014 and 2008 Assembly elections. The party is facing a tough fight to retain its base. In the past, the PDP got the anti-NC votes and also received tacit support from Islamic outfits such as the Jamaat-e-Islami. But it is facing the brunt of voter opposition for forming a government with the BJP in 2015. In the years that followed, the government was dissolved, Jammu and Kashmir lost statehood, and Article 370 of the Indian Constitution was abrogated.

Third, the Jamaat-e-Islami, which has a strong presence in this region and usually calls for boycott of elections, is not only appealing to people to vote but is also contesting the election for the first time—after 35 years—in alliance with Baramulla MP Sheikh Abdul “Engineer” Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP).

A voter poses for a photograph at a selfie booth erected in a polling station in Rajouri, on September 25.
| Photo Credit:
RAHUL SINGH/ANI

Of the 13 districts that voted in the first two phases, more places showed an increase in voter turnout (from the previous Assembly election) in phase one. The story changed in the second phase, which saw a lower turnout compared with the previous election. Table 1 shows that of the 13 districts, the turnout jumped only in 5, 3 of them in South Kashmir, and 1 each in Central Kashmir and Chenab Valley. Of the four districts in South Kashmir, barring Anantnag, all districts showed a significant jump in turnout.

Kishtwar saw the highest voter turnout at a little over 80 per cent. The district saw the second-highest jump after Shopian in voter turnout from the previous Assembly election. Voter participation in Srinagar district was very low but still improved by around 2 percentage points from the previous Assembly election. The maximum decline in turnout was observed in Budgam district in Central Kashmir.

Decline in voter turnout among Hindus

If we delve deeper, a significant trend in turnout emerges from the Hindu population. Barring Kishtwar, all districts with a high Hindu population have seen a significant decline in voter turnout. Reasi, which has a 49 per cent Hindu population according to the 2011 Census, saw a 7 per cent decline in voter turnout (Table 2). Similarly, in Rajouri, which has a 35 per cent Hindu population, the turnout declined by 8 per cent.

Table 2 shows another significant relation between turnout change and the BJP’s performance in the 2014 Assembly election when the BJP won 25 Assembly seats, most of them (18) in the Jammu region (which voted on October 1). The sudden rise of the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014 also helped it expand its strength beyond the Jammu region. Of the 50 seats that voted in the first two phases, the party won 7 seats in the 2014 election. These seven seats are spread over five districts in Chenab Valley, Jammu, and the Pir Panjal region. Of the five districts where the BJP won any seats, four saw a decline in turnout.

Another turnout trend can be analysed around the Scheduled Tribe population. According to the 2011 Census, the Scheduled Caste population in the Union Territory is 19 per cent and the ST population is 12 per cent, but the UT has a unique demographic feature: SCs are concentrated in the Jammu region, while STs are concentrated mostly in the Pir Panjal and the Chenab Valley. However, some of the districts in Central and South Kashmir also have an ST population.

Highlights
  • Barring Kishtwar, all districts with a high Hindu population have seen a significant decline in voter turnout
  • Districts where the Scheduled Tribes population is in double digits have seen a decline in turnout
  • In Jammu and Kashmir there is a strong demand for both the politics of recognition and redistribution

Among the STs, the Bakarwal (a nomad community) and the Gujjar have the lion’s share. The share of the ST population will change dramatically in the next Census as the Central government has included the Pahari community (those who live in the mountains of Poonch and Rajouri districts) in the ST category.

Table 3 suggests that all the districts where the ST population is in double digits have seen a decline in turnout. Poonch and Rajouri, which have the highest share of the ST population, show a 4 and 8 per cent decline in turnout respectively. This trend across social segments and in the absence of a boycott call may point to a general reluctance to participate in the electoral process. It becomes more interesting when one considers the significant social engineering, in terms of reservation, undertaken by the Centre.

How reservation changed the game

In March 2024, the UT government announced a 10 per cent reservation in jobs for the Pahari ethnic group and three other tribes (Gadda Brahman, Koli, Padderi). The total reservation for STs in Jammu and Kashmir is now 20 per cent. Earlier, when the Bakarwal and the Gujjar had ST status, they had 10 per cent reservation in the State. In 2020, the government approved a 4 per cent reservation in jobs for the Pahari-speaking population. This year, the government extended this quota to 10 per cent and added three new communities to the quota. The major beneficiaries of the Pahari reservation are the populations in Poonch and Rajouri districts who live in the hills (with a special explanation) and include all religions and caste communities.

The STs in Kashmir are mostly Muslim. The Gujjar and the Bakarwal are Muslim, and because of Mian Altaf Ahmed Larvi of the NC, the Gujjar have been a strong support base for the party for a long time.

Owing to the extension of reservation to the Pahari, the BJP has become a major gainer in the Pir Panjal region. During his field visit, the author met many Muslims who were ready to support the BJP because of the reservation, and because the BJP candidate was a Muslim. In Surankote Assembly constituency of Poonch district, the BJP used to be a marginal player but is a strong contender this time, having fielded the NC turncoat Mushtaq Ahmed Bukhari, a Pahari who was vocal for Pahari reservation.

A similar situation favours the BJP in the Poonch Haveli constituency as well, where aspirational youth and even Sikhs are inclined to support or vote for the BJP due to the Pahari reservation. In Poonch Haveli, Tripti Sharma, who hopes to become a civil servant, was happy with the decision because she believes that due to this, her competition is just among the Pahari (especially from Poonch and Rajouri), and not with the well-facilitated students from Jammu and elsewhere.

The 10 per cent reservation for the Pahari, however, may lead to many questions. First, if language is the criterion for reservation, then should the people who speak Pahari but not live in the hills get the benefits? Second, if habitation is the criterion for reservation, then is it good practice to give reservation to those who are socially and economically well off (a significant number of Paharis own a good share of land)? If these are the criteria, will it not dilute the basic concept of reservation?

Voters queue up at a polling station in the second phase of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election, at Surankote constituency of Poonch district on September 25.

Voters queue up at a polling station in the second phase of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election, at Surankote constituency of Poonch district on September 25.
| Photo Credit:
PTI

All elections are fought on the development plank, but the puzzle in Jammu and Kashmir is about the kind of development. Road, rations, electricity, and other infrastructure are one dimension of development. The other is providing reservation to suppressed communities to uplift them. Both of these could come under the politics of redistribution.

On the other hand, allowing space for people to move about and speak freely is also another kind of development that is required for the human mind. This dimension could fall under the umbrella of the politics of recognition.

In Jammu and Kashmir, this author found a strong demand for both the politics of recognition and redistribution. People accept the fact that the Valley has become more peaceful in the past few years and that road infrastructure has improved tremendously. Governance has also become more accountable. A Sikh in his late 30s, based in Mattan, who works in the National Highways Authority of India, said that under the Lieutenant Governor’s rule they have to reach work on time by sharing their GPS location. While travelling in a local bus from Surankote to Poonch, this author saw some employees of the education department trying to send their GPS coordinates to supervisors.

But the people of Kashmir also believe that after August 2019, under the Lt Governor’s rule, their voices have been suppressed, their basic rights curtailed, and that local people have lost job opportunities to outsiders.

‘Someone to hear us out’

The election campaigns of the NC, the PDP, the AIP, and so on are more focussed on the slogan “sarkar banane se bolne ki aazadi milegi” (electing a government will bring freedom of speech). In Shopian, outside a polling booth, a 50-something man said: “People want change, no election took place in 10 years. We want to elect our representative, someone who will hear us out.” There is no concrete data yet, but voter participation is likely to be higher in rural areas than urban from what one noted on the field. This is because people in rural areas want to have their own MLAs to help them get roads, electricity, water, etc.

Also Read | Statehood not a gift for BJP or government to give: Omar Abdullah

At present, the NC seems to have an edge because it has not been in power for the past 10 years and so, unlike the PDP, it does not face an anti-incumbency sentiment, secondly it has a committed and long-standing cadre base, and thirdly, it is associated with the famous land-to-tiller reform scheme.

This election is being fought on two main planks: electoral autonomy and social-engineering-led development. Which one will weigh uppermost in voters’ minds has emerged as the crucial question.

Ashish Ranjan is an election researcher and co-founder of Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies.

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