Let us look at Haryana briefly. What do you think has happened there?

Haryana is very interesting. For the first time, we have seen a close contest. In terms of vote share, there’s just a 0.8 per cent gap between the BJP and the Congress. And I am emphasising vote share here, not seats. The vote share tells us there is a clear caste polarisation, and it is a classic bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress.

I would like to focus on about 40 per cent of the electorate. In Haryana, three key groups—Jats, Muslims, and Jatavs (upper SC)—make up about 39-40 per cent of the total electorate. The remaining 60 per cent is diverse. Historically, the Congress has had strong support among these groups. However, the BJP managed to navigate through this and gain support from the Jatavs and Muslims by focusing on other criteria, particularly following the Supreme Court’s verdict on SC/ST categorisation.

During our visits to parts of Haryana, we found that many non-Jatav Dalits, such as Dhanaks and Balmikis, were happy with the BJP’s promise to reserve 50 per cent of benefits for these communities. That is significant because during the 2024 national election, the Congress had a strong support of SC communities, partly due to its safe-seat narrative. But the party lost ground, particularly in two constituencies where non-Jat, non-Jatav communities turned away.

In my years covering the BJP, I have noticed they have successfully built a social coalition, uniting people against the dominant castes, whether in the Dalit or OBC categories. They implemented this in Haryana, sticking to their social strategy, which worked for them. In contrast, Congress seemed unaware of the idea of counter-polarisation. Would you agree?

I agree, partly. The BJP’s approach has been to mobilise non-dominant political forces. Some call it “subaltern Hindutva,” but that’s not entirely accurate. In States such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where upper castes still hold power, the BJP has successfully mobilised non-dominant groups. But in Haryana, it’s more about social engineering: expanding their base by tapping into discontent within various communities.

The Congress’s strategy, in that case, was fundamentally flawed. They spoke about caste census and privileging socially disadvantaged communities, yet sidelined a key Dalit leader. That kind of hypocrisy is telling…

I completely agree. Congress also focused heavily on Jawan, Kisan, and Pahlwan, terms that mostly refer to the Jat community. This alienated non-Jat groups such as the lower OBCs and SCs, who have historically worked for Jat landowners. Their fear of Jat dominance led them to support the BJP.

On the other hand, I have heard from people in the Aam Aadmi Party that they knew they had a chance of winning one seat in Doda. They were not contesting Haryana aggressively, but they had the intelligence to understand ground realities.

That’s right. The BJP’s cadre, especially the RSS, was fully mobilised. They were not as visible during the Lok Sabha election, but in this campaign, their presence was strong, and that could have implications for other States such as Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

In Maharashtra, the Congress’s recent gains in vote share indicate they are back in the game, right?

Yes, especially in States such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The Congress has crossed the 40 per cent vote share threshold in some contests, which is crucial for a real fight. For nearly 20 years, the Congress has been losing ground, but now they have started contesting effectively again.

I think this election will really demoralise them. Congress tends to rely on mood swings more than on a solid cadre.

In a way, it’s also a wake-up call for Congress. When they win, they often get arrogant, thinking too much about the national picture. They lost big in States such as Haryana because of that mindset.

Since the election results came out, Congress has even blamed EVMs. Meanwhile, AAP and the Samajwadi Party (SP) have already started announcing candidates without consulting the Congress.All this shows how damaged Congress currently is, particularly in Haryana.

I agree. Looking at the bigger picture, 15 or 20 years ago, the Congress was the umbrella party, at least in Haryana. They were seen as a party that accommodated different communities. But now they have become more like a regional party. This centralisation is hurting them. Compare this to Modi and the BJP, which has also become centralised, but they have been able to maintain strong local representation. Congress used to be a party of leaders from different backgrounds. Take the 2017 Gujarat election, for example: Congress became competitive because they brought together leaders such as Jignesh Mevani, Hardik Patel, and Alpesh Thakore from different caste categories.

Let’s turn to Jammu and Kashmir. I recently travelled there, and from what I observed, the NC will likely form the government. But what’s fascinating is how the BJP managed to upstage Congress in Jammu. Congress won only one seat there. What are your thoughts?

This was my first visit to Jammu and Kashmir, and the most striking issue was the call for Statehood. People across communities—Muslims, Hindus, Kashmiri Pandits—all wanted Statehood because they felt they had lost opportunities, especially in terms of jobs. After the abrogation of Article 370, locals lost job protections, and the introduction of property taxes and other measures under the Lieutenant Governor’s rule further upset people. While infrastructure has improved, people feel they are losing their autonomy. So, despite their dissatisfaction, this time the NC was their best option.

The other significant factor was social engineering, especially in districts such as Rajouri and Poonch, where BJP made surprising gains. Historically, BJP barely got votes there, but this time they received 15,000 to 20,000 votes in some areas. They even received some minority votes because they granted ST status to certain groups. BJP isn’t afraid to try anything that might benefit them.

So, looking ahead, what are your big takeaways?

First, nothing comes easy: you need to work hard to win. Second, despite setbacks, BJP is still in a strong position nationally. In States such as Maharashtra and Jharkhand, they will face tough battles, but they have strengthened their position. Delhi will be another battleground, but BJP needs to align itself with a strong State leader to make gains.

In November, we have elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, and then early next year in Delhi. Beyond that, we have Bihar at the end of 2025. What is your forecast?

Over the next year and a half, aside from Maharashtra, the Congress is the second-ranked party in most states—such as Bihar, Delhi, and Jharkhand—so they need to focus on their regional alliances. Without these alliances, they risk continuing their decline. Congress and the opposition need to put up a united front. You need 40-45 per cent of the vote to beat the BJP in this era, and they need to expand their social base. Just counting OBCs won’t be enough: they need to offer something concrete to voters, such as jobs or education, to win back support.

What is this vote in Kashmir all about?

This election for the Assembly was held after a long interval, with the previous one in 2014. The Supreme Court’s intervention and voices raised in Parliament and outside persuaded the government to initiate this process. The mandate is quite wonderful, with people coming out in good numbers, even in urban areas.

Did you expect it?

I did, based on my experience. J&K [Jammu and Kashmir] was deprived of many constitutional rights, and there were many pending day-to-day issues. Despite authorities in Delhi and Srinagar claiming normalcy and peace, we weren’t allowed to speak out. Journalists couldn’t express themselves, and even employees were treated as second-grade citizens, denied trade union rights. There was a lull in Kashmir, which was misinterpreted as acceptance of the government’s actions.

Is this the first time that people of J&K have had the right to express themselves after 2019 and the abrogation of Article 370?

Yes. This was the only option left for people to express themselves. It’s not about peace or no peace, but the willingness of common people to join the electoral process. They came out in large numbers because there was no other choice to express themselves.

I came across people voting for the first time in their lives, some in their fifties and sixties. What would you say about that?

The younger generation’s voices have been choked. They want a good life, jobs, better education, and fair treatment from the administration. Since 2018, we’ve had an administration that wasn’t open to common people. This election, initiated after Supreme Court intervention, was seen as the only option left for all sections of society—traders, unemployed youth, students—who had been living under an atmosphere of forced silence.

Would you say this is a vote against the BJP in the Kashmir valley?

It’s certainly against the policies pursued by the BJP government towards Jammu and Kashmir. The Prime Minister talked about “Unka pul hallelujah,” but that wasn’t seen anywhere.

The National Conference’s performance can be described as fantastic, but the PDP [Peoples Democratic Party] and Congress have been decimated. What does this mean for Kashmir?

Unfortunately, our state was earlier composed of three regions: Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh. Now Ladakh is a separate Union Territory. The BJP government has worked to divide us further between Jammu and Kashmir, building walls of suspicion. They floated certain proxies here, especially after the 2019 assault on Article 370 and 35A. They tried to reorganise political structures, creating platforms that would agree with whatever the government did.

During this election, more proxies were created. Jamaat-e-Islami, for instance, contested against me in Kulgam. They were facilitated by the BJP government and administration, and allowed to function despite being a banned organisation. They got some share in Kulgam because they focused there, likely at the behest of those in authority.

This government has done everything possible to vitiate the atmosphere and devalue the democratic process. We’ve always maintained that the people of Kashmir, Jammu, and Ladakh want to be part of Indian democracy. The question isn’t about territorial integration, which is unquestionable. It’s about integrating the minds of people with the rest of the country. That comes through protecting people’s rights, not through force. You have to win over the minds of the people.

There’s a huge mandate for the National Conference, and interestingly, Congress seems to have won seats in the valley but not in the Jammu region. How will this new government face the challenges, given the high expectations?

Expectations are indeed very high, but there are limitations. The Reorganisation Act and the delimitation process ignored the 2011 census, which showed Kashmir Valley as more populated than Jammu. Yet, they increased six seats for Jammu and only one for Kashmir.

Moreover, while the Prime Minister and Home Minister repeatedly claim commitment to restoring statehood, they’ve further amended the Reorganisation Act. Public order and the posting and transfer of senior IPS officers have been given to the Lieutenant Governor.

And appointment of law officers?

Law officers, anti-corruption bureau, and all such institutions have been handed over to the Lieutenant Governor (LG).

So this is like the Delhi situation?

It’s more than that. Recently, the J&K budget was presented and approved by the Parliament in the absence of the Assembly here. The police budget for J&K has been listed in the Union budget, which is unprecedented. This means putting the police under direct control of Delhi.

So if Omar Abdullah becomes Chief Minister, the responsibility for law and order would rest with Delhi, not the Chief Minister?

Yes, absolutely. Even an SHO (Station House Officer), SP (Superintendent of Police), everything remains within Delhi’s control.

So if there are any terrorist incidents, that responsibility lies with the Centre?

Yes. Even processions, demonstrations, and whatever falls under law and order. The whole security scenario will be dealt with directly by the government of India, not trusting the representatives of the people of Jammu and Kashmir.

You mentioned earlier that the Supreme Court gave a date for election. What about statehood?

They mention the Supreme Court’s direction to hold elections, but there’s also mention of statehood. The Solicitor General assured the court about the restoration of statehood, but the government isn’t implementing that. Instead, they’re further amending the Reorganisation Act, reducing whatever little power the Assembly or Cabinet had.

So statehood is a distant prospect?

I don’t know, but it certainly needs big support from the rest of the country. They talk about peace and normalcy, but can you have peace without the people? The people are the real stakeholders. The current peace is due to huge security structures in the Kashmir Valley. We appeal to the people in the rest of the country and the Parliament to understand what’s happening in Jammu and Kashmir. At least now we’ll have a legitimate platform in the legislature to voice our concerns and protect the rights of the people.

As the spokesperson of the Gupkar alliance, what’s your view on the lack of representation from J&K in the Council of Ministers? Only two Hindus have been elected on the National Conference ticket. How can the new Chief Minister expand representation?

It’s a worrying factor and unfortunate. The polarisation promoted by those in power is dangerous, especially in this sensitive border state. It’s a difficult task, but we believe Kashmir and Jammu must work together, regardless of community representation.

There are some independent Hindu candidates.

We will try to work with them. We don’t know about their willingness to cooperate yet, but those doors should be opened.

Unfortunately, there’s no legislative council either.

Yes, the council where we could have addressed certain areas has been abolished.

So polarisation is a policy of the Central government?

Yes, that’s how it appears. It’s not just us talking about it; it’s what they’re doing. The intent seems to be to polarise the situation further, as they’ve been doing in many areas of the country, and now here in Jammu and Kashmir as well.

What kind of relationship do you think the government here can have with the Central government?

We don’t have any choice except to work together with the government of India. It’s not in the interest of Jammu and Kashmir to confront them. Our size is too small. We’re dependent on the Central government for the restoration of statehood, other rights, and livelihood issues. We’ll seek solutions in consultation with those in authority.

What’s your sense about the release of Engineer Rashid and allowing Jamaat-e-Islami to contest elections while it remains a banned organisation? Was it to split the votes of mainline parties?

That seems to be the case. As a student of politics, I don’t object to anyone contesting elections. The question is legitimacy. Jamaat-e-Islami remains banned, yet they’re facilitated to campaign as independents, openly declaring their affiliation. Earlier, they opposed mainstream parties. Now, there’s a U-turn. Neither they nor the government explain this change to the people. Jamaat-e-Islami has argued for secession in the recent past.

You’re going to be a fifth-term MLA. People in Srinagar seem generally happy with the mandate. After a long time, there’s a feeling that people are satisfied with their vote and its result. What are your thoughts?

There was a time of boycotts and fear. Now, there’s hope for some relief because other avenues have been choked. People can’t even protest peacefully anymore. They were handed over to unknown bureaucrats for a long period. That’s why people are opting for this route to get some relief, even if it’s little. They will rejoice and celebrate, in my opinion. But it’s a greater responsibility for those elected to deliver and for the national government too. Don’t miss this opportunity. People are showing confidence in the democratic process. Respect that and do whatever is required to strengthen this process, not dilute it.

This seems to be a highly participatory election, with many people coming out for every rally and candidate, eager to listen to what they are saying and wanting to be part of the process. This was also true during the Lok Sabha election. So what has changed from previous elections?

So much has changed. First and foremost, it has been 10 years since the last Assembly election. This is perhaps the longest duration between Assembly elections in J&K, longer even than the interval during militancy in the early 1990s. So, there has been a yearning for a return to democratic rule. We haven’t had an elected government in J&K since 2018 so Delhi has directly ruled us for six years.

Then, of course, all the changes have happened in the interim. J&K’s special status was written down, it was divided into two parts and then downgraded to a Union Territory.

A new generation of voters has come forward. Organisations participating in this election were on opposite sides—by calling for a boycott—during previous elections. Today they’re asking people to come out and vote. This election is different, it’s new and that accounts for the participation.

How confident are you about your own prospects and those of the National Conference in this election, especially after that shock defeat in Baramulla [during the Lok Sabha election]?

I don’t think there is any scope for overconfidence. We are extremely hopeful that the party will do well, individually, and that the alliance with the Congress, the CPI(M), and one party in Jammu that the people will return us to the Assembly with a majority.

If you had to reflect on it now, how do you view the defeat in Baramulla? Was that a vote against you or against…

I think it was only a sentimental vote. The campaign that was fought on behalf of Engineer Rashid was fought on two fronts. The first was that Engineer Rashid had to be saved from being hanged and, therefore, people had to vote for him. This was, at the very least, dishonest because the punishment for the charges against him did not include the death penalty. They tried to play the sympathy card. The second front saw his sons, who led the campaign, appealing to voters to vote for their father and bring him out of jail.

Elections don’t release people from prison. If they did, Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Hemant Soren, and more imprisoned politicians wouldn’t have been imprisoned. It was a campaign designed to target people’s heartstrings and it worked. You had the ladies who felt sorry for these boys and decided that they would vote for their father.

It was not a vote for separatism?

I am sure there are elements of that as well. You had a lot of first-time voters….well in a manner of speaking [in previous elections] his [Engineer Rashid] three main slogans were that J&K is not an integral part of India, accession is unacceptable and that J&K must have a plebiscite. His campaign focussed on these three points. Strangely enough, these points seem to have slipped his mind during his 20-day-long campaign. The only thing he is talking about is the National Conference.

In his speeches, Prime Minister Modi has been dissuading people from voting for dynastic parties that have a separatist and terrorist agenda.

 It’s again dishonest on the part of the Prime Minister to take this line against parties like the National Conference that have lost thousands of members, senior party workers, office bearers, Ministers, and elected representatives. I think we deserve better. By all means, criticise us on our governance, the BJP is well within its rights to talk about a family that is connected to the leadership of this party. Fine. But to say we have a terrorist or separatist agenda is a gross injustice and an insult to the thousands of people who died simply because the National Conference didn’t raise the flag of separatism. Whenever we talked about a solution to the problems of J&K, we talked about them within the scope of the Constitution. In 75 years, when has the National Conference carried out a secessionist or a pro-terrorist agenda?

This is probably the first time since 1987, that the NC itself is facing such a raft of candidates wherever it is contesting—Independents, Jamaat-e-Islam, Engineer Rashid, etc. How do you view this phenomenon?

One way of looking at it is as a concerted effort being made to divide votes. Why are all these parties and candidates only present on this side of the Peer Panchal, on the Kashmir side, and not in Jammu?

Why is this sort of division of votes being attempted in seats where the BJP has no stakes? So you don’t see it happening in seats where the BJP believes they have a standard chance of winning. That’s one way of looking at it. The BJP will, of course, tell you that this is part of the naya [new] J&K and that people feel more enthused about democracy. I know what I believe. Individuals will have to form their own opinions.