India Pakistan relations – TheNewsHub

India-Pakistan and the bullet-proof bonds

Aseem — Wed, 16 Oct 2024 11:56:15 +0000

Most newspapers carried a photograph today, October 16, of India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar shaking hands with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad. Jaishankar is in Pakistan to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. This is the first visit by India’s External Affairs Minister in nine years and the first such regional coordination meeting between India and Pakistan since 2023, and the handshake is as such a significant breakthrough.

The past 10 years have seen a near-total breakdown of trade, travel, and diplomatic links between the two neighbours, with the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting recently even blocking the release of The Legend of Maula Jatt, a much-anticipated Pakistani Punjabi film featuring Fawad Khan and Mahira Khan. The remake of the 1979 classic was set to be the first Pakistani film to be screened in India in over a decade.

Yet, amid this strained backdrop, people-to-people connections are thriving, particularly in the digital sphere. The recent discovery of Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan’s long-lost album Chain of Light captured the attention of Indian audiences, serving as a poignant reminder of his enduring influence in the subcontinent and the cultural bonds that transcend political discord. (The collection emerged 27 years after the legendary Pakistani qawwal’s death in 1997.)

After the Paris Olympic Games, Saroj Devi, mother of Indian javelin star Neeraj Chopra, and Raziah Parveen, mother of Pakistan’s javelin star Arshad Nadeem, warmly congratulated each other’s sons, much to the celebration of social media. While Pakistani cricketers remain barred from the Indian Premier League (IPL), matches between the two countries are still held abroad. Similarly, despite restrictions in each country, poets, writers, and artists collaborate internationally, forging connections that persist amid the political tension. And now, a new wave of peace ambassadors is emerging online.

Classical Urdu and Punjabi poets from the pre-Partition era remain popular on both sides of the divide, their legacy enduring despite the conflict. While the tradition of Indo-Pak mushairashas almost faded, poets from both countries participate in poetic congregations abroad or connect through online platforms, keeping the spirit of their shayaari (poetry)alive.

On May 24, 2017, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on the role of language professionals in connecting nations and fostering peace, understanding, and development, and declared September 30 as International Translation Day. In this context, both Punjabi and Urdu languages are helping evolve a cultural dialogue between India and Pakistan.

Several digital platforms and publishers in India are translating and publishing Urdu poets from Pakistan in English and Devanagari. Rekhta is one such platform. Noted author Rakhshanda Jalil recently translated a collection of Pakistani poet Zehra Nigah’s Urdu poems into English. The book, The Story of Eve, is published by Speaking Tiger.

Ayub Khawar, the Lahore-based poet, author, and television director who directed the TV serial Gulzar Classics based on Gulzar’s short stories, told Frontline: “As long as the language is being actively used, regardless of the mediums, it cannot die.”

Despite the fact that Punjabi is written in two scripts, Shahmukhi (in Pakistan) and Gurmukhi (in India), it remains a strong bridge between Punjabis on either side. In 2014, a Canadian $25,000 Dhahan Prize was instituted by a Canada-India education society for excellence in Punjabi fiction, giving a global stage for the language.

Over two years ago, the late Sahitya Akademi award-winning Punjabi writer Desraj Kali told this writer about publishers translating Punjabi literature and history from Shahmukhi to Gurmukhi and vice versa. Punjabi has also been an exception so far as cross-border literary conferences are concerned. A 53-member delegation of writers and intellectuals took part in the annual World Punjabi Conference in Lahore in March this year. They honoured Maryam Nawaz, the Chief Minister of Pakistani Punjab, whose ancestors belonged to Indian Punjab’s Jatti Umra village in Tarn Taran. She assured the delegation of promoting Punjabi to strengthen Indo-Pak relations. As Punjabi culture sees a revival, Maryam Nawaz has introduced Punjabi as a subject in schools across the largest province in Pakistan.

“During our stay in Lahore, it felt like a second home no matter where we went. Even people whose grandparents had migrated from Indian Punjab in 1947 treated us like family,” said Shiv Inder Singh, a Punjabi writer and editor-in-chief of the Punjabi portal Suhi Saver. He added, “The only complaint was that Indian authorities were not providing visas to Pakistanis who wanted to visit India.”

While the road and air links between India and Pakistan remain suspended since 2019, in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP’s Amritsar candidate Taranjit Singh Sandhu, a former Indian Ambassador to the US, promised resumption of India-Pakistan trade via the Attari-Wagah land route. Observers feel the BJP leader’s promise was a manifestation of popular local sentiments.

BSF soldiers and Pakistani Rangers participate in the Wagah-Attari border ceremony on December 4, 2022.
| Photo Credit:
MOORTHY RV

When famous Indian Punjabi singer Sidhu Moosewala was murdered on May 29, 2022, his death was widely mourned across the border, according to Neelam Mansingh Chowdhry, a prominent theatre personality from Chandigarh, who was in Pakistan when Moosewala’s death was announced. She told this correspondent of the profound impact Moosewala had on Pakistani Punjabis. “They grieved over his death as if they had lost a family member,” she said. Months later in August, a viral video showed Indian soldiers dancing to Moosewala’s song, “Bambiha Bole”, apparently being played by Pakistani soldiers manning the border outpost at the Line of Control (LoC). The clip was posted on Twitter by Indian Police Service officer HGS Dhaliwal with the caption, “bridging the divide.”

Also Read | Rebel without a cause: Review of ‘Who Killed Moosewala?’ by Jupinderjit Singh

Likewise, vloggers on both sides of the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir have emerged as crucial cultural conduits for the Pahari and Pothwari-speaking communities. Despite the significant number of families divided by the de facto border, cross-LoC trade and travel between Poonch and Rawalakot were suspended in 2019, making digital connections all the more vital. Earlier this year, Kashmiri composer and singer Faheem Abdullah, along with Rauhan Malik, set to music a poem written by Amir Ameer, a poet from Pakistani Punjab. The resulting song, “Ishaq”, was produced by Artiste First, a company striving to reconnect communities through genre-neutral music.

Ban on artists

After August 5, 2019, when India revoked Article 370 which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan suspended diplomatic relations and bilateral trade with India. Earlier, following the Pulwama terror attack of February 14, 2019, the All-Indian Cine Workers Association (AICWA), the Indian Motion Pictures Producers Association (IMPPA), and the Federation of Western Indian Cine Employees (FWICE) had passed a resolution, banning Pakistani artists from the Indian film industry. The cinema wing of Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) issued an open threat to Bollywood filmmakers against recruiting Pakistani artists.

In October 2023, the Bombay High Court dismissed a petition aimed at legally barring Indian citizens and organizations from engaging with Pakistani artists, including actors and musicians. A division bench, comprising Justice Sunil B. Shukre and Justice Firdosh P. Pooniwalla, described the plea as a “retrograde step” and noted that art and culture transcend national boundaries and promote peace. The court pointed out that the proposed restrictions violated fundamental rights enshrined in Articles 19(1)(a), 19(1)(g), and 21 of the Constitution. When the ruling was challenged in the Supreme Court in November 2023, the apex court declined to entertain the petition.

The Legend of Maula Jatt was poised for release in the Indian state of Punjab through a collaboration between Zee Studios and Zindagi, a digital channel, currently airing Fawad Khan’s television serial, Barzakh. After the 2016 Uri terror attack, Zindagi stopped airing Pakistani shows. It has again syndicated content from Pakistan, besides Bangladesh and other countries.

Shailja Kejriwal, chief creative officer, special projects, Zindagi, from the Zee stable, emphasised cross-border collaborations in an interview with PTI in August this year. “My ultimate desire, I don’t know whether it will happen or not, is that we collaborate… writers and artists from both sides should be on a set together,” she said, adding, “Hopefully, we will be able to do something because we flourish more if we are open and inclusive.”

The past few years have seen the Punjabi film industry making several cross-border collaborations with Pakistani theatre and TV artists, but it is reported that they were involved in only films or scenes shot abroad. But the trend has moved to the music industry as well, with singer-rapper Yo Yo Honey Singh collaborating with Coke Studio Pakistan artists Wahab Bugti and Sahiban for his recently released musical album Glory. The actor-singer Diljit Dosanjh was praised in Pakistani media for inviting Pakistani actor Hania Aamir on stage while performing in London recently.

Famous Punjabi singer Sidhu Moosewala. When he was murdered on May 29, 2022, his death was widely mourned across the border.
| Photo Credit:
PTI

Supporters of both Indian and Pakistani celebrities are increasingly vocal against the notion of restricting artists. “India’s concerns about terror attacks emanating from certain forces in Pakistan are well taken. That said, banning Pakistani artists and films is not an effective way to counter that,” said Gurmehar Kaur, a Delhi-based radio broadcaster, vlogger, and peace activist. “Not only should both governments allow the screening of each others’ films but they should also facilitate collaborative work. It would enable a process of self-discovery and allow us to tell our compelling stories to the wider world.”

Kaur underscored the composite culture and shared history of the two countries. “We need to make a distinction between the people and the state. India’s relationship with Pakistan has always operated at multiple levels. Today, we are two different nation-states but still one desi civilisation. We share a primal bond. There’s a bit of Indian in every Pakistani and a bit of Pakistani in every Indian,” she said, adding, “Our people have always found enjoyment and meaning in each other’s creative work. Our pop culture is largely shared.”

YouTubers as peace ambassadors

Pakistani biker and vlogger Abrar Hassan saw his long-held dream come true last year, thanks to his German passport. A native of Nankana Sahib in Punjab, Hassan documented his travels through Kochi, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Goa, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Jodhpur, Ajmer, Agra, Delhi, Chandigarh, and Amritsar. His engaging videos, which have garnered millions of views, showcase the profound warmth and hospitality he encountered along the way.

Similarly, Tehzeeb Hafi, a prominent young Pakistani poet has captured the hearts of audiences in India. In an interview with BBC Hindi last year, he remarked, “The majority of my supporters are from India. Their comments on my social media accounts reflect that perhaps they appreciate art more profoundly.” Expressing a strong desire to visit India, he added, “Despite numerous invitations, I haven’t been able to go. Given the chance, I would love to explore every Indian city I’ve seen in movies or read about in books.”

Many Pakistani vloggers are shining a spotlight on Hindu and Sikh heritage, showcasing native villages and remnants of ancestral homes belonging to those who migrated to India after Partition. These creators are not merely documenting; they are conducting in-depth research on heritage sites that testify to a history of pluralism.

A mud wall shelf adorned with Bollywood film star posters in a room owned by a cotton picker’s family in Meeran Pur village, north of Karachi November 23, 2014.
| Photo Credit:
REUTERS

Salman Rashid, a noted Pakistani writer, has posted several videos on important Hindu heritage sites. One video he recently posted shows the decline of Tilla Jogian (Hill of Ascetics), a significant Hindu spiritual epicentre believed to have attracted Guru Nanak, the founder of Sikhism, who meditated there for 40 days in the early 1500s. Tilla Jogian is said to have flourished during Mughal emperor Akbar’s rule. But it was looted and destroyed by the Pashtun king Ahmad Shah Abdali in 1748. Although restored by Sikh Maharaja Ranjit Singh, it fell into ruins again after 1947.

Folklore, as written by revered Punjabi poet Waris Shah in 1766, tells of Ranjha who, after being separated from his beloved Heer, became a disciple of Guru Gorakhnath, the founder of the Kanphata (pierced ear) sect of Jogis, at this site. The legend is popular on both sides of Punjab with Heer and Ranjha attaining the status of Sufi mystics. Their tomb in Pakistan’s Jhang holds a sacred place in many hearts.

Interestingly, there is a surge of YouTubers in Pakistan who produce content aimed at dismantling entrenched prejudices against India. While some observers attribute this pro-India trend to economic motivations—highlighting India’s vast 692 million internet users compared to Pakistan’s 87.35 million—the reality is more nuanced. As the virtual world continues to evolve, these YouTubers are not just creating content; they are forging pathways for understanding and empathy across a deeply fractured landscape.

Vlogger Nasir Dhillon, for instance, is dedicated to helping Partition survivors get emotional closure. Dhillon’s family migrated from Panjgarh village in Tarn Taran, East Punjab, to Lyallpur district in West Punjab in 1947. Growing up, he was immersed in the poignant stories of Partition recounted by his elders. “My grandfather cries on August 14 (Pakistan’s Independence Day) each year. But this generation remembers the day differently, they celebrate it, which rubs salt on the old wounds,” Dhillon said in a recent podcast.

In collaboration with his friend Lovely Singh, Dhillon has documented over 1,000 Partition-related stories on his channel, Punjabi Lehar, which boasts 786,000 followers. “Punjabi Lehar is striving to bridge the divide between the people of East and West Punjab, a rift created by the Partition of 1947,” his channel says, adding that many people have died with unfulfilled desires to see their birthplace and reconnect with childhood friends. The channel’s aim is to fulfil the wishes of the remaining Partition-era Punjabis. Punjabi Lehar claims to have facilitated over 100 in-person reunions, especially after the historic opening of the Kartarpur corridor in November 2019, ahead of the 550th birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev.

The late poet and lyricist Nida Fazli, who chose to stay in India while his family migrated to Pakistan, poignantly addressed the absurdity of the religion-based partition. After visiting Pakistan, he reflected on the similarities between the two countries in one of his ghazals. He drew on the metaphors of Mughal-era Urdu poet Mir Taqi Mir who, like Mirza Ghalib, is celebrated in both countries, to beautifully capture the deep yearning between people separated by a political border:

Uthta hai dil-o-jaan se dhuan donon taraf hi,

Ye ‘Mir’ ka divaan yahan bhi hai vahan bhi!

(Smoke rises from the heart and soul on both sides,

Mir’s poetry lingers here as well as there.)

Dark tunnel, elusive light: India-Pakistan diplomacy locked in a strategic stasis

Aseem — Wed, 02 Oct 2024 00:02:00 +0000

India-Pakistan relations have been barren for over five years now with no green shoots in sight. Instead, the stage is set for a fresh round of bitterness and confrontation. Reports indicate that India has formally invoked Article XII(3) of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), seeking its modification. India’s move is not surprising considering Pakistan’s obstructionism on projects which India considers valid under the IWT. Going by its initial response, Pakistan seems to have sidestepped India’s demand by stating that all issues can be addressed by the two countries’ respective IWT commissioners. India is unlikely to be satisfied with this response.

The promise of a positive change in ties with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s initiatives in 2014-15 and a ready response from Nawaz Sharif, his Pakistani counterpart then, was sabotaged by the men in khaki. A glimmer of hope emerged in 2018 with the electoral victory of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI). With the support of the establishment, the party’s leader, Imran Khan, became the Prime Minister.

Broken hopes

For a while, it appeared that Pakistan’s focus would shift to geo-economics to ensure the country’s economic stability and growth. However, the generals could not abandon terrorism as part of their strategic doctrine against India; the Pulwama terrorist attack in February 2019 was its manifestation. The dangerous confrontation that occurred with India’s Balakot aerial strike was defused with Pakistan coming under quiet but immediate international pressure. The Indian action demonstrated that the first step on the escalatory ladder between two states with nuclear weapons is an unacceptable terrorist strike. A hiatus in bilateral ties followed, and the Lok Sabha election was held in April-May 2019, wherein the BJP led by Modi secured a significant victory.

Also Read | India’s regional imperative: Reviving South Asian cooperation

Any hope that fresh moves to restore India-Pakistan ties to an even keel would be afoot after the election was dashed by Pakistan’s bitter and intense reaction to India’s decision to abolish Jammu and Kashmir’s special status with the abrogation of Article 370 and divide the State into two Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. These constitutional changes, made on August 5, 2019, were in accordance with the traditional ideological position of the BJP. They have now received the Supreme Court’s endorsement although the BJP-led government has given an assurance that it will restore statehood to Jammu and Kashmir at the appropriate time. Pakistan took the view that the constitutional changes regarding Jammu and Kashmir marked a material change to the character of what it considers is an “international dispute”. It expressed special anxiety that India would change the erstwhile State’s demographic composition over time.

A barbed wire fence between India and Pakistan.
| Photo Credit:
GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO

Significantly, it lashed out at the Sangh Parivar and its ideology, calling it Nazi and fascist. Pakistan also used China to invoke the UN Security Council (UNSC) mechanism to discuss India’s moves. The council members met informally but declined to take up the matter. They took the view that Jammu and Kashmir problems had to be resolved bilaterally between India and Pakistan. This only reinforced the Indian position that UNSC resolutions have become “obsolete”.

While objecting to the August 5 changes, Pakistan clearly overlooked the enormous changes, including demographic, that it has brought about in territories under its illegal and forcible control in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

Pakistan also undertook specific steps against India to show its opposition to the constitutional changes. These included downgrading its diplomatic mission in India and asking India to do the same. These were no longer to be led by High Commissioners. Also, it suspended commercial ties. Thus, Pakistan’s acrimony, both practical and rhetorical, ensured that bilateral ties reached a new low in 2019. Meanwhile, its calibrated sponsorship of terror against India and its support for the Afghan Taliban continued.

It also went ahead with its traditional support for Khalistan and pursued its desire to wean away the loyalty of Indian Sikhs—a desire that will never fructify but that will not stop Pakistan from perpetually trying. In August 2021, Pakistan achieved a great but, as was proved soon, Pyrrhic victory in Afghanistan when, in the wake of the US withdrawal, the Afghan Taliban re-established its rule over the country after a gap of two decades.

Frayed ties

The trajectory of the India-Pakistan relationship between 2014 and 2020-21 was a repeat of past cycles of promise and failure. Since then, an overview of the domestic situations and foreign policy pursuits of the two countries and their bilateral attitudes demonstrates their vastly different concerns and preoccupations. These have necessarily impacted their bilateral ties. More importantly, they hold important pointers for the future.

Lieutenant General Vinod Bhatia, Director General of Military Operations (DGMO), with his Pakistani counterpart Major General Aamer Riaz at the Wagah border post on December 24, 2013. The DGMOs held face-to-face talks for the first time in 14 years.
| Photo Credit:
AFP

Pakistan has had a hybrid government since 2018, but Imran Khan, who was admittedly gaining popular support, thought that he could intervene in the army’s internal functioning. No Pakistani army chief allows that, although Gen. Qamar Bajwa indulged Khan once by showing Lt Gen. Asim Munir the door as Director General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in 2019. Munir had earned Khan’s ire because he had warned him against the corrupt practices of his wife Bushra Bibi’s friends. Munir was replaced by Lt Gen. Faiz Hameed, who soon became Khan’s favourite and helped him in political management.

In October 2021, Bajwa moved Hameed out of the ISI, but Khan resisted the move, only to finally give in. Khan’s reluctance, however, made Bajwa and his supporting generals lose faith in him. Soon, the army moved to build an alliance of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PML(N), the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl) against Khan.

Pakistan’s internal politics

This move culminated in April 2022 with the ouster of Khan and the installation of a Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government. It was led by PML(N)’s Shehbaz Sharif, who ensured that Khan did not have any role in choosing Bajwa’s successor in November 2022. The general chosen by Shehbaz Sharif, at the insistence of his brother Nawaz Sharif, the acknowledged leader of the party, was Asim Munir.

Also Read | The Indus Waters Treaty faces a perfect storm

Munir has an undying hatred of Khan. He decided that Khan could never be allowed to become Pakistan’s Prime Minister. He went along with the PDM to embroil Khan in several court cases so that he could be imprisoned. On May 9, 2023, when Khan was arrested, his supporters in the PTI went on a rampage, targeting military installations and monuments dedicated to venerated army martyrs. That was too much for Munir to take. He moved ruthlessly against the PTI and army officers who sympathised with Khan. The PDM government gave way to a caretaker government in August 2023, but national elections were delayed and held only in February 2024. The PTI could not contest as a party, and Khan remained in jail. Independents who aligned with Khan, however, did well. In the end, Munir was able to get the PML(N) to form a government with the outside support of the PPP.

Highlights

The ceasefire along the international boundary in Jammu and Kashmir and the Line of Control (LoC), reached in February 2021, has largely held.

The trajectory of the India-Pakistan relationship between 2014 and 2020-21 was a repeat of past cycles of promise and failure.

The security focus of India’s political and strategic classes has decisively shifted to China after the Galwan incident of 2020. Pakistani terrorism remains a deep and continuing concern but it is not a strategic challenge.

Under a pact between the two parties, the PPP’s actual head, Asif Zardari, became President. There is no immediate danger to this political arrangement that is overseen by Munir, but Pakistani politics continues to remain unstable.

Along with political instability, Pakistan has also been in the throes of a serious economic crisis. Its macro-economic situation has been dire through the past three years. It was saved from default because of the generosity of its traditional donors and the IMF. The latter, however, extracted a price by forcing the withdrawal of some food and energy subsidies, which led to popular distress. Pakistan will soon begin its 24th IMF support programme. But, since it refuses to change course on its security policies, it is unlikely to attract foreign investment except from China under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project.

Taliban troubles

Besides, Pakistan is entangled with the Afghan Taliban, which is supporting the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan, and there is no resolution in sight. Finally, the Pakistani elite have no faith in their country. Hence, the country’s economic situation will continue to remain difficult for the foreseeable future.

A memorial in eastern Ladakh pays tribute to the bravery of 20 soldiers killed in the Galwan Valley clash of 2020.
| Photo Credit:
BY SPECIAL ARRANGEMENT

As for India, it has shown little public interest in Pakistan’s domestic situation through the past four years. Besides, the security focus of India’s political and strategic classes, as well as that of the public, has decisively shifted to China after the Galwan incident of 2020, wherein Indian and Chinese troops were involved in skirmishes that resulted in fatalities.

Pakistani terrorism remains a deep and continuing concern, but it is not a strategic challenge. It can, however, lead to major bilateral eruptions, and there could have been one if the casualty figures had been higher in the Reasi terrorist attack that took place on June 9 this year, the day Modi took oath for the third time as Prime Minister. Pakistan has also kept up the terrorist activity in Jammu and Kashmir, this time in the Jammu sector.

In all this, the ceasefire along the international boundary in Jammu and Kashmir and the Line of Control (LoC), which was reached between the two countries in February 2021, has largely held. It is credibly believed that the common “friends” of the two countries from the Arabian Peninsula persuaded them to cool temperatures and agree to a ceasefire. This suited both, especially Pakistan, which is particularly vulnerable in the Neelum Valley. Ever since Pakistan’s troubles with the Afghan Taliban increased, its need for calm on its eastern frontier is obvious. Thus, the likelihood of the ceasefire continuing to hold is high.

SAARC in doldrums

One continuing casualty of the India-Pakistan issue has been the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Summits have not been held since 2016 because of India’s objections to Pakistani terrorism. Other SAARC countries have supported it. One of the problems with the absence of SAARC or South Asian cooperation is the neglect in developing a common approach on mitigating and adopting measures to tackle climate change.

South Asia is one geographical unit, and the impact of climate change, in the Himalaya for instance, is of great concern for the entire region. The entire region is also getting water stressed. This is particularly true in the case of Pakistan, which has mismanaged its water situation over the decades but wrongly blames India for it.

Army troops in the Galwan Valley on January 1, 2022. India’s security focus has shifted to China after the Galwan incident of 2020 where Indian and Chinese troops were involved in skirmishes that led to fatalities.
| Photo Credit:
BY SPECIAL ARRANGEMENT

Political realities trump the possibilities of cooperation in this and other areas that can contribute to the well-being of all South Asian people. As the largest country in the region, India has a special responsibility, but that also requires other countries to accept that Indian security concerns have to be addressed. That has to begin with Pakistan abandoning terrorism and adopting a rational approach towards Jammu and Kashmir. Neither outcome is likely since the Pakistani generals believe that confrontation with India is essential not only for their national but also their corporate interests. They have been willing to be China’s cat’s paw in South Asia rather than adopt cooperative policies with India. This is not going to change.

On its part, India, through the comments of External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, has been periodically sending tough messages to Pakistan, emphasising that it must cease terror and drop its confrontationist approach. Jaishankar, while making strong pronouncements, must be more accurate in his statements. It is also significant that Modi reportedly did not send the customary message of greetings to Shehbaz Sharif when he recently flew over Pakistan. And Shehbaz Sharif’s greetings to Modi on his third oath-taking and the latter’s response to it were bare and routine.

No scope for handshake

Are there any prospects of a change in the orientation of India-Pakistan ties in the foreseeable future? The answer is no. A fundamental modification in Pakistan’s approach is needed. And this is something the Pakistani army, the guardian of the country’s territory and foundational ideology, will simply not allow. Can there be a thaw so that a return to the pre-August 2019 position occurs? The elected leadership would perhaps favour this, for it would help attract investments, especially after rating agencies gave Pakistan a feeble thumbs up in late August.

A bus carrying pilgrims to Vaishno Devi temple fell into a deep gorge after an attack by militants on June 9, 2024, the day Prime Minister Narendra Modi took oath for the third time. At least nine people were killed.
| Photo Credit:
CHANNI ANAND/AP

Pakistan has invited India for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s (SCO) Heads of Government meeting to be held in Islamabad on October 15-16. This SCO forum comes below the Heads of States forum in the organisation. Hence, there is no question of Modi attending it. Besides, he did not attend the SCO summit held in July in Astana, Kazakhstan; Jaishankar represented him.

Also Read | Editor’s Note: India needs to do more to promote South Asian cooperation

India may send a representative to the Islamabad SCO meeting. Even then, significant bilateral discussions on its sidelines are improbable because Pakistan has not indicated a change in its current positions on Jammu and Kashmir and terrorism, and Modi appears unwilling to return to the peacemaking efforts he tried in 2014-15. Hence, at best, a courtesy meeting between the Indian and Pakistani representatives may take place.

Vivek Katju is a retired Indian Foreign Service officer. He served as Ambassador to Afghanistan from March 2002 to January 2005.