U.S. homeowners are sitting on a record amount of equity, but higher interest rates over the past two years have made them reluctant to tap into it. That is finally starting to change.

In the third quarter of this year, mortgage holders withdrew $48 billion of home equity, according to ICE Mortgage Technology — the largest volume in the two years since the Federal Reserve started hiking its benchmark interest rate. While mortgage rates don’t exactly follow the Fed’s rate, home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, are tied to it. The Fed cut its rate by a half percentage point in mid-September.

Despite the bump, homeowners are still being pretty cautious.

They are sitting on a little over $17 trillion in total equity collectively. Roughly $11 trillion of that is tappable, meaning homeowners could borrow on it as long as 20% equity would remain in the home, as most lenders require. The average homeowner now has $319,000 of equity in their home, of which $207,000 is tappable.

In the third quarter, homeowners withdrew just 0.42% of all tappable equity, less than half the rate seen in the decade leading up to the Fed hikes.

“Over the past 10 quarters homeowners have extracted $476B in equity, exactly half the extraction we’d expect to see under more normal circumstances. That equates to nearly a half a trillion untapped dollars that hasn’t flowed back through the broader economy,” said Andy Walden, ICE vice president of research and analysis, in a release.

Homeowners tend to use equity for home repairs, renovation projects and large expenses, such as college tuition.

Walden ran the numbers for the change in costs over the past two years: The monthly payment needed to take out $50,000 in a HELOC more than doubled from as low as $167 in March 2022 to $413 in January of this year. The latest rate cut reduced that slightly.

“The market’s currently pricing in another 1.5 percentage points of cuts through the end of next year. If that comes to fruition, and current spreads hold, it’ll have positive implications for both new equity lending as well as for consumers with existing HELOCs, with the payment on a $50,000 withdrawal falling back down below $300 per month,” Walden calculated.

That cost is still above the 20-year average, but it represents a more than 25% reduction from recent highs, according to the calculations.

“Given borrowers’ recent sensitivity to even slight rate drops, this could serve to entice additional HELOC utilization, especially with mortgage holders sitting on record stockpiles of equity and locked into their current home values via low first lien rates,” Walden added.

Home equity growth has been moderating recently, as home prices ease. More supply is coming on the market, and primary mortgage rates are higher than they were over the summer. That gives sellers less pricing power.

Insured losses for Hurricane Helene are now estimated at over $6 billion, but the uninsured losses are far higher. That’s because the vast majority of homes impacted by the storm, especially in hard-hit North Carolina, did not have flood insurance.

New risk-assessment technology is designed to help change that for the future.

Most homeowners in North Carolina do not have flood insurance, because they are not in flood zones designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Government-backed mortgages require flood insurance in those designated areas.

Just 4% of North Carolina homes are in a FEMA flood zone. But climate risk firm First Street, which incorporates the effects of climate change into its property risk scores, shows nearly 12% of homes in the state at flood risk.

First Street just launched a suite of climate risk data for every for-sale property listed on Zillow.

“Climate risks are now a critical factor in home buying decisions,” said Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow, in a release. “We’re providing buyers and sellers with clear, property-specific climate data so they can make informed decisions. As concerns about flooding, extreme temperatures, and wildfires grow, this tool also helps agents inform their clients in discussing climate risk, insurance, and long-term affordability.”

Each for-sale listing on Zillow now displays First Street risk scores for flood, fire, wind, air and heat. They also show those same risk percentages estimated 15 years and 30 years into the future — the standard lengths for fixed-rate mortgages.

On properties with some risk now, it often shows that risk rise over time, as First Street incorporates the effects of climate change. This is especially true for the flood risk, because climate change is already intensifying the severity of rainfall, even in minor storms.

The data also includes a recommendation as to whether the homeowner should have flood insurance and a link to the First Street site, which will help estimate insurance costs.

“A lot of people think that they are safe from flood if they’re not in a FEMA flood zone, and that’s decidedly not true. Heavy rainfall can affect many, many people across the country, and there’s no indication from the FEMA flood zone designation that that is a risk for you,” said Ed Kearns, chief science officer at First Street. “We’ve created these new flood maps that do bring that into account, that will allow consumers to make that informed choice about whether they need flood insurance.”

More than 80% of buyers now consider climate risk when purchasing a home, according to a survey by Zillow. Respondents ranked flood risk as their highest concern, followed by fire.

A Zillow analysis of August listings found that more homes nationwide had a major climate risk than did those listed for sale five years ago. That was true across all five climate risk categories, the analysis found. For new listings in August, 16.7% are at major wildfire risk and 12.8% show a major risk of flooding, according to Zillow and First Street data.

As more and more consumers consult these climate scores in their purchase decisions, the effect on home values will surely increase. The cost of insurance is already factored into home prices, and as both the cost and necessity of insurance rise, home values in the most affected areas will fall.

“I think that’s going to be the most direct impact of having scores on homes that quantify risk is that there may be some direct impact on real estate values, but a lot of that is going to go through the amount of insurance necessary to cover that home,” Kearns added.

The average rate on the 30-year-fixed mortgage jumped 27 basis points Friday morning following the release of the government’s monthly employment report. The rate is now 6.53%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

That is 42 basis points higher than Sept. 17, the day before the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point. Mortgage rates do not follow the Fed, but they loosely follow the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury.

For mortgage rates, it is all about what the expectation is next for the Fed. As such, there was a lot of anticipation leading up to this particular monthly report, since the last two pointed to weaker labor market conditions.

“Indeed, the Fed’s decision to cut by 0.50 vs 0.25 last month had much to do with the fear/expectation that reports like today’s would be in shorter supply going forward,” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. “The only salvation here would be the notion that this is just one jobs report in a recent run that’s been mostly weaker and that perhaps the next one won’t be so damning for bonds.”

However, the report does shift the outlook slightly for rates going forward, since most had assumed the trajectory would be lower.

“MBA’s forecast is for longer-term rates, including mortgage rates, to remain within a relatively narrow range over the next year,” the Mortgage Bankers Association’s chief economist, Michael Fratantoni, wrote after the jobs report was released. “This news will push mortgage rates to the top of that range, but we do expect that mortgage rates will stay close to 6% over the next 12 months.”

Today’s homebuyers are highly sensitive to rate moves, as house prices continue to rise from year-ago levels. There is also still very low inventory on the market, which has only served to keep prices higher. Rates are a full percentage point lower than they were a year ago, but the housing market has not seen much of a boost yet.