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How President-elect Donald Trump's policies may affect investors in these 8 market sectors

Harsh — Tue, 26 Nov 2024 19:22:18 +0000

President-elect Donald Trump at a viewing of a test-flight launch of the SpaceX Starship rocket in Brownsville, Texas, Nov. 19, 2024.

Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images

As Inauguration Day nears, investors are trying to unravel what booms or busts lay ahead under President-elect Donald Trump.

Trump’s campaign promises — from tariffs to mass deportations, tax cuts and deregulation — and his picks to lead federal agencies suggest both risks and rewards for various investment sectors, according to market experts.

Republican control of both chambers of Congress may grant Trump greater leeway to enact his pledges, experts said. However, their scope and timing is far from clear.

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Here’s a look at other stories impacting the financial advisor business.

“There’s so much uncertainty right now,” said Jeremy Goldberg, a certified financial planner, portfolio manager and research analyst at Professional Advisory Services, which ranked No. 37 on CNBC’s annual Financial Advisor 100 list.

“I wouldn’t be making large bets one way or another,” Goldberg said.

tailpipe-emissions rule expected to push broader adoption of EVs and hybrids. He also intends to kill consumer EV tax credits worth up to $7,500 — although states such as California may try to enact their own EV rebates, blunting the impact.

Losing the federal credit would make EVs more costly, driving down sales and perhaps making “per unit economics even less favorable” for automakers, John Murphy, a research analyst at Bank of America Securities, wrote in a Nov. 21 research note.

Some companies seem well-positioned, though: Ford Motor, for example, “has a healthy pipeline of hybrid vehicles as well as traditional [internal combustion engine] vehicles to supplement the EV offerings,” Murphy wrote.

Tariffs and trade conflict pose threats to the auto industry, since the U.S. relies heavily on other nations to manufacture cars and parts, said Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

They “could affect the cost and availability of cars we see in the U.S. market,” Cox said.

Economists expect tariffs and other Trump policies to be inflationary.

In that case, the Federal Reserve may have to keep interest rates higher for longer than anticipated. Higher borrowing costs may weigh on consumers’ desire or ability to buy cars, Cox said.

However, lower EV production could be a boon for companies that manufacture traditional gasoline cars, experts said.

Trump has also called for a “drill, baby, drill” approach to oil production. Greater supply could reduce gas prices, supporting demand for gas vehicles, experts said. But trade wars and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela could have the opposite impact, too.

— Greg Iacurci

CNBC FA 100 list.

“The larger banks probably benefit more from that,” Spinelli said.

Less regulation — combined with the prospect that interest rates could stay higher — will provide a net positive for the bank industry, since banks may be able to lend out more risk-based capital, said David Rea, president of Salem Investment Counselors in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, which is No. 8 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

One issue that emerged this year that could resurface is concern about regional banks’ exposure to commercial real estate, Spinelli said.

“It wasn’t that long ago, and I don’t think those problems disappeared,” Spinelli said. “So you question, is that still looming out there?”

— Lorie Konish

housing market has been “frozen” in recent years by high mortgage rates, said Cox, of Ritholtz.

Lower rates would likely be a “catalyst” for housing and associated companies, she said.

However, that may not materialize — quickly, at least — under Trump, she said. If policies such as tariffs, tax cuts and mass deportations stoke inflation, the Federal Reserve may have to keep interest rates higher for longer than anticipated, which would likely prop up mortgage rates and weigh on housing and related sectors, she said.

The whims of the housing market affect retailers, too: Home goods stores may not fare well if people aren’t buying, renovating and decorating new homes, Cox said.

That said, deregulation could be “absolutely huge” for the sector if it accelerates building timelines and reduces costs for developers, Goldberg said.

Trump has called for opening public land to builders and creating tax incentives for homebuyers, without providing much detail.

Housing policy will be “one of the most-watched initiatives coming out of the next administration,” Cox said. “We haven’t gotten a lot of clarity on that front.”

“If we see realistic and well-thought-out policies, you could see real estate stocks and related stocks” such as real estate investment trusts, home improvement retailers and home builders respond well, Cox said.

— Greg Iacurci

$100,000 benchmark before its recent runup ended.

As president, Trump is expected to embrace crypto more than any of his predecessors.

Notably, he has already launched a crypto platform, World Liberty Financial, that will encourage the use of digital coins.

Those developments come as new ways of investing in crypto have emerged this year, with the January launch of spot bitcoin ETFs, and more recently, the addition of bitcoin ETF options.

Yet financial advisors are hesitant, with only about 2.6% recommending crypto to their clients, an April survey from Cerulli Associates found. Roughly 12.1% said they would be willing to use it or discuss it based on the client’s preference. Still, 58.9% of advisors said they do not expect to ever use cryptocurrency with clients.

“The No. 1 reason why advisors aren’t investing in cryptocurrency on behalf of their clients is they don’t believe it’s suitable for client portfolios,” said Matt Apkarian, associate director in Cerulli’s product development practice.

Even for advisors who do expect they may use crypto at some point, it’s “wait and see,” particularly regarding how the regulatory environment plays out, Apkarian said.

However, investors are showing interest in cryptocurrency, with 90% of advisors receiving questions on the subject, according to research from Christina Lynn, a certified financial planner and practice management consultant at Mariner Wealth Advisors.

For those investors, exchange-traded funds are a good starting place, Lynn said, since there’s less chance of falling victim to one of crypto’s pitfalls such as scams or losing the keys, the unique alphanumeric codes attached to the investments. Because crypto can be more volatile, it’s best not to invest any money you expect you’ll need to pay for near-term goals, she said.

Investors would also be wise to think of cryptocurrency like an alternative investment and limit the allocation to 1% to 5% of their overall portfolio, Lynn said.

“You don’t need to have a lot of this to have it go a long way,” Lynn said.

— Lorie Konish

repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, a law enacted under Biden that includes clean energy incentives.

If Trump continues to make it easier to create more oil supply, that might not be a great thing for oil companies, according to Adam, of Raymond James.

“Because there’s more supply, it may tamp down on the price of oil, and that’s one of the biggest drivers of that sector,” Adam said.

Eagle Global Advisors, a Houston-based investment management firm that specializes in energy infrastructure, is “cautiously optimistic” about Trump’s impact on the sector, according to portfolio manager Mike Cerasoli. Eagle Global Advisors is No. 35 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.

“We would say we’re probably more on the optimistic side than the cautious side,” Cerasoli said. “But if we know anything about Trump it’s that he’s a wild card.”

A lot of the Inflation Reduction Act may stay intact, since the top states that benefited financially from the law also handed Trump a victory in the election, according to Cerasoli.

When Biden won in 2020, there was a lot of panic about the outlook for energy, oil and gas. Cerasoli recalls writing in a third-quarter letter that year, “I don’t think it’s going to be as bad as you think.”

Four years later, he has the same message for investors on the outlook for renewables. In the days following Trump’s inauguration, Cerasoli expects there may be a deluge of executive orders.

“Once you get past that, you’ll get a sense of exactly how he’s going to treat energy,” Cerasoli said. “I think people will realize that it’s not the end of the world for renewables.”

— Lorie Konish

big vaccine makers such as Merck, Pfizer and Moderna, said David Weinstein, a portfolio manager and senior vice president at Dana Investment Advisors, No. 4 on CNBC’s annual FA 100 ranking.

Cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, are also likely on the table to reduce government spending and raise money for a tax-cut package, experts said.

Publicly traded health companies such as Centene, HCA Healthcare and UnitedHealth might be affected by lower volumes of Medicaid patients or consumers who face higher health-care premiums after losing ACA subsidies, for example, Weinstein said.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. during the UFC 309 event at Madison Square Garden in New York City, Nov. 16, 2024.

Chris Unger | Ufc | Getty Images

Medical tech providers — especially those that supply electronics with semiconductors sourced from China — could be burdened by tariffs, he added.

Conversely, deregulation might help certain pharmaceutical companies such as Thermo Fisher Scientific and Charles River Laboratories, which may benefit from faster approvals from the Food and Drug Administration, Goldberg said.

Vivek Ramaswamy, a former biotech executive whom Trump appointed as co-head of a new advisory panel called the “Department of Government Efficiency,” has called for streamlined drug approvals. But Kennedy has advocated for more oversight.

“There’s a real dichotomy here,” Weinstein said.

“Where do we end up? Maybe where we are right now,” he added.

— Greg Iacurci

how the policies are structured.

Home Depot, Lowe’s and Walmart, for example, source a relatively big chunk of their goods from abroad, Weinstein said.

Home Depot CEO and President Ted Decker said Nov. 12 during the firm’s third-quarter earnings call that the company sources more than half its goods from the U.S. and North America, but “there certainly will be an impact.”

“Whatever happens in tariffs will be an industrywide impact,” Decker said. “It won’t discriminate against different retailers and distributors who are importing goods.”

It’s a good idea for investors to own “high quality” retailers without a lot of debt and with diversified inventory sources, Goldberg said. He cited TJX Companies, which owns stores including TJ Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods, as an example.

“Direct imports are a small portion of [its] business and TJX sources from a variety of countries outside of China,” Lorraine Hutchinson, a Bank of America Securities research analyst, wrote in a Nov. 21 note.

Deregulation may be positive for smaller retailers and franchises, which tend to be more sensitive to labor laws and environmental and compliance costs, Goldberg said.

— Greg Iacurci

Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.

Even broadly diversified investors may find it difficult to escape those names, as they are among the top weighted companies in the S&P 500 index.

Information technology — which includes all those stocks except Amazon and Google parent Alphabet — comprises the largest sector in the S&P 500 index, with more than 31%.

Trump is poised to have an influence on looming antitrust issues, amid considerations as to whether Google’s influence on online search should be limited.

Any tariffs put in place may also prompt some sales to decline or the cost of raw materials to go up, said Rea of Salem Investment Counselors.

Nevertheless, Rea said his firm continues to have a “pretty heavy” tech allocation, with strong expectations for generative artificial intelligence. However, the firm does not own Tesla, due to its expensive valuation, and has recently been selling software company Palantir, a winning stock that may have gotten ahead of itself, he said.

Technology valuations are trading well into the high double digits on a price-to-earnings basis, which often signals forward returns will decline, according to Halbert Hargrove’s Spinelli.

Consequently, prospective investors who come in now would basically be buying high, he said.

“If you think you’re going to get the same double-digit returns in the next five years, sure, it could happen on a one-year basis,” Spinelli said. “But your chances historically have been that your returns come down.”

— Lorie Konish

Lowe's beats on earnings and hikes guidance, but still expects sales to fall this year

suimt — Tue, 19 Nov 2024 13:09:44 +0000

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – AUGUST 20: The exterior sign of a Lowe’s home improvement store is seen on August 20, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. The company beat fiscal second-quarter earnings expectations, but missed on sales and cut its full-year outlook blaming inflation. (Photo by Eric Thayer/Getty Images)

Eric Thayer | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Lowe’s beat Wall Street’s quarterly earnings expectations on Tuesday, as outdoor do-it-yourself projects, the home professional business and stronger online shopping fueled sales.

Yet even with the better-than-expected results, the home improvement retailer is projecting a year-over-year sales decline. The company updated its full-year guidance on Tuesday, and now expects total sales of between $83 billion and $83.5 billion, higher than its previous forecast for $82.7 billion to $83.2 billion. It said it expects comparable sales to decline 3% to 3.5%, slightly better than the 3.5% to 4% drop that it had previously anticipated.

Lowe’s is lapping a year-ago period when the company lowered its outlook and sales tumbled nearly 13% year over year. It also cut its full-year forecast in August, as it predicted weak home improvement demand in the back half of the year because of high interest rates.

Here’s what the company reported for the three-month period that ended Nov. 1 compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

Earnings per share: $2.89 adjusted vs. $2.82 expected
Revenue: $20.17 billion vs. $19.95 billion expected

In the fiscal third quarter, Lowe’s net income fell to $1.7 billion, or $2.99 per share, compared with $1.77 billion, or $3.06 per share, in the year-ago period. Revenue dropped from $20.47 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Comparable sales declined 1.1% year over year, due to weaker demand for bigger and pricier discretionary DIY projects. That was offset, in part, by demand driven by preparation for and repairs from hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with growth in sales to home pros like contractors.

Lowe’s competitor, Home Depot, reported last week that customers are still deferring bigger projects and pricier purchases, even after two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Home Depot beat Wall Street’s sales and earning expectations, yet posted its eighth quarter in a row of declining comparable sales. It did see some improving sales trends, however, due to hurricane-related demand, warm-weather home projects and the acquisition of SRS Distribution, a company that sells supplies to landscaping, pool and roofing professionals.

As of Monday’s close, shares of Lowe’s have risen about 22% this year. That’s less than the approximately 24% gains of the S&P 500 during the same period. The company’s stock closed on Monday at $271.77, bringing the market value of Lowe’s to $154.17 billion.

This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

Jim Cramer's week ahead: Earnings from Nvidia, TJX and Walmart

Aseem — Fri, 15 Nov 2024 23:50:48 +0000

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Friday highlighted the biggest events next week on Wall Street, pinpointing earnings reports from Nvidia, TJX and Walmart. And as postelection worries create an uncertain market landscape, he advised that investors proceed with caution.

“Look, I’ve told you that there are many pitfalls with individual stocks when it comes to Trump 2.0. Most of them are buying opportunities,” he said. “But with stocks still up so much from a few months ago, you can’t be too eager to buy the dips.”

On Monday, Cramer will be waiting for an investor meeting from Vertiv, which supplies companies with products need for data centers. He noted that the outfit is largely immune to any issues that might arise when President-elect Donald Trump takes office. He said investors could open a small position in the company, but that he’d rather wait for a little more weakness to buy.

Tuesday brings earnings from Walmart, Lowe’s, Medtronic and Viking Holdings. Cramer praised the two retailers but said investors might want to wait for a pullback before diving in to Walmart. Similar to Home Depot, home improvement retailer Lowe’s tends to do well when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, he added. Medtronic has been a winner so far, Cramer continued, incorporating artificial intelligence into some of its medical devices. He also said that luxury cruise line Viking could be a good buy before and after earnings.

Retailers TJX, Target and Williams-Sonoma will report Wednesday morning. Cramer recommended investors “wait and see” with Target as Wall Street worries about the impact of potential tariff increases by the Trump administration. TJX, he noted, has a tendency to sell off when it reports, while Williams-Sonoma can “catch on fire” during a rate cutting cycle. After the market closes, Palo Alto Networks and Nvidia report, and Cramer said both could sell off post-earnings.

On Thursday, Gap and Intuit are set to report. Cramer said he’d be a buyer of the clothing retailer ahead of the quarter. And while he said he likes enterprise software outfit Intuit, he “can’t get excited” about the stock until it cools off. Procter & Gamble and GE Healthcare Technologies will host investor days Thursday. Cramer said the consumer goods company has valuable insight into topics including China, raw costs and tariffs. He added that the medical technology company can tell a good story that will resonate with investors.

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Why Home Depot made an $18.25 billion bet on the pro business

suimt — Fri, 15 Nov 2024 20:00:29 +0000

A warehouse for Texas Pool Supply, a company that’s part of SRS Distribution, carries pool parts such as filters and heaters, along with large buckets of pool chemicals. It’s an example of the specialized business that Home Depot includes after acquiring SRS.

Melissa Repko | CNBC

PLANO, Texas — In a suburban warehouse, giant buckets of pool sanitizer and boxed-up heaters and pumps line the shelves.

This isn’t a Home Depot store, but these aisles — and the company behind them — will shape the home improvement retailer’s success over the next decade.

Home Depot made its biggest bet yet on expanding its business earlier this year when it bought SRS Distribution, a Texas-based company that sells supplies to professionals in the roofing, pool and landscaping businesses. The company has more than 11,000 employees and more than 780 branches across 47 states, including in the Dallas area.

With the $18.25 billion deal, which closed in June, Home Depot signaled to investors that its growth will come not just from its big-box stores. It will also rely on large online orders placed by home professionals who need a long list of specific supplies for installing swimming pools, repairing roofs and tackling complex remodels.

In its first few months, the deal has buoyed Home Depot’s business at a time when consumers are taking on fewer of their own home improvement projects. Earlier this week, the retailer said the acquisition fueled a more than 6% increase in fiscal third-quarter sales, even as shoppers went to stores less and spent less per transaction than in the year-ago period.

In both of the past two quarters, Home Depot’s revenue would have fallen year over year if SRS’ sales were excluded.

In an interview with CNBC, CEO Ted Decker said Home Depot bought the company not to offset the softer do-it-yourself market, but because it fits into its strategy to sell more to pros.

Home Depot has long acted as a convenience store for pros, who might drop in to buy a tool or last-minute item. Over the past four years, it has built a nationwide distribution network with hubs in metro areas such as Dallas, Atlanta and Los Angeles, so it can deliver larger, truckload-size orders directly to the job site of a contractor or other pro.

Yet SRS caught the retailer’s attention because it offered a different area of expertise: Catering to home improvement pros with specialties, Decker said.

SRS CEO Dan Tinker said the specialty distributor brings a deeper catalog of merchandise, a dedicated sales force and a large network that delivers to about 15,000 job sites per day. It also offers trade credit, a financing arrangement that allows a customer to receive a big order and pay later. Home Depot, for its part, has just started offering that option to a small portion of its own pro customers.

“What we bring to them is an accelerant to their pro strategy,” he said.

At the time of the deal, Home Depot estimated the acquisition expands the company’s total addressable market to approximately $1 trillion, an increase of approximately $50 billion.

SRS came with a steep price tag but could add rocket fuel to Home Depot’s pro growth, said Joe Feldman, a senior research analyst for Telsey Advisory Group. He compared the deal to Walmart’s $3.3 billion acquisition of Jet.com, an e-commerce player. Some industry watchers and Walmart’s own CEO have credited the move for accelerating Walmart’s online business, even though it eventually shut down Jet.com as a standalone.

“They see it as an opportunity to enter a completely new market with a very established player,” he said. “It will take a few years to see if it pays off.”

Home Depot acquired SRS Distribution in March for $18.25 billion. The Texas-based company sells supplies to professionals for pools, landscaping and roofing.

Melissa Repko | CNBC

hiked its full-year forecast, but only because of a shorter-term boost in business. Hurricane-related preparation and repairs, and homeowners taking advantage of warmer, drier weather with outdoor-related purchases and smaller projects, drove additional sales in the third quarter.

Customers have delayed home sales and purchases, or springing for pricier projects, as they wait for lower mortgage and borrowing rates.

Home Depot’s “biggest challenge — and really, their only challenge — is when do we see a great retail vertical over the past few years get back to being that way?” said Chuck Grom, a senior analyst who covers retail for Gordon Haskett.

Home Depot’s stock has underperformed the S&P 500. As of Thursday’s close, shares of the company are up 17% this year, but trail the S&P 500’s nearly 25% gains.

Yet investors have expressed some optimism. Telsey Advisory Group’s Feldman recently upgraded Home Depot’s stock. While he said he expects negative comparable sales next quarter and perhaps even in the first quarter of next year, he said he anticipates a return to growth next spring.

In other interest rate easing cycles, he said it’s typically taken about six to nine months to see housing demand pick up. The Federal Reserve kicked off interest rate cuts in September and has made one other reduction since then, with more expected.

Grom said Home Depot’s growing pro business is what helps to attract investors and set it apart from its main competitor, Lowe’s. About half of its business comes from home pros compared with about 20% to 25% at Lowe’s.

Pros are typically steadier and bigger spenders, and some of the businesses they serve better weather ups and downs in the economy.

For example, about 80% of the roofing business comes from repairs or re-roofing projects rather than for new homes, Decker said. He cited that as one of the factors that made SRS attractive.

Tinker said SRS is more insulated than Home Depot is from economic changes. As families hold off on moving, SRS has gotten business from investment companies that have been buying properties to fix up and rent, he said.

“There’s such a huge need for people to rent until they can afford to buy,” he said.

SRS is expected to contribute about $6.4 billion in incremental sales this year, according to Home Depot. Those sales include only the period after the deal closed in mid-June.

The SRS deal and the focus on pro does not mean Home Depot is abandoning efforts to jolt the rest of its business. Decker said the retailer is still trying to attract more do-it-yourself sales. It has opened 10 new stores in the U.S. since late January and it plans to open two more by early February.

Combining forces

Home Depot has already started to see the synergies the deal brings.

SRS brings a larger and more mature logistics network that can speed up deliveries and lower costs. The company has an approximately 4,000-truck delivery force. Home Depot, on the other hand, relies mostly on third-party delivery and had just started to use its own drivers, Decker said.

SRS also sells a larger catalog of products that professionals use to satisfy customers’ varied demands, such as surf blue-colored roofing or a deeper selection of outdoor fire pits, Tinker said.

The newly acquired business also has other advantages, including a dedicated sales force with expertise in specific verticals and deep relationships with pros who are frequent buyers, Tinker said. Its approximately 2,500-person specialized sales force is larger than Home Depot’s, which is in the hundreds, Tinker said. Home Depot does not disclose the size of its sales force.

In Los Angeles, Home Depot and SRS are in the early innings of testing how they can bring their existing operations together. As part of a pilot project, SRS will use space in a Home Depot distribution center to expand its sales in the part of the country where it has a smaller footprint, Tinker said.

“That’s a huge opportunity, but that’s even not touching or integrating with them,” he said. “That’s just using some of their assets.”

SRS gains other business advantages from joining the home improvement behemoth. Home Depot’s big-box stores include pro desks where contractors can go for specialized support or to place orders. Those pro desks are now promoting and selling SRS’ deeper catalog of products, Decker said.

In the meantime, SRS, which has made more than 100 acquisitions, has continued to buy small, often family-owned companies in the pool, landscaping and roofing business. It’s averaged 15 acquisitions annually in the past four or five years, Tinker said.

Home Depot has taken a more hands-off approach, allowing SRS to run more independently after the deal, Decker said.

“We’re letting them focus on their growth formula, but also beginning to look at where are their obvious synergies, without disrupting what they’re doing,” he said.

Inside the SRS-owned Texas Pool Supply in Plano, which caters only to home pros, the aisles of items include many that couldn’t be found at a local Home Depot. Contractors can buy a wider range of tiles for the bottom of a swimming pool, or bulk items, such as 100-pound buckets of pool sanitizer.

When Home Depot acquired SRS, Jeff Cabell, branch manager of Texas Pool Supply, said he got a lot of questions from customers. Some asked if Home Depot would soon carry the same products and worried it would change the business. Some employees asked if their uniform would change to Home Depot’s signature orange aprons.

In both cases, Cabell said, the answer is no.

Here's a rapid-fire update on what Trump will mean for all 33 portfolio stocks

Harsh — Thu, 14 Nov 2024 20:19:15 +0000

Elections, hurricane damage and more: Here are four factors that will shape holiday shoppers' purchases

suimt — Sat, 19 Oct 2024 13:00:01 +0000

A Macy’s store is seen at Herald Square on December 11, 2023 in New York City.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Inflation may have cooled, but retailers are still staring down a holiday season with plenty of uncertainty.

Several hard-to-predict factors will influence consumers’ spending, as they deck the halls and look for the perfect gifts. Volatile weather, election distraction and a deal-hunting mindset may shape the season. And fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas than last year will put shoppers on the clock.

Yet there’s reason for optimism for retailers: Shoppers are feeling more upbeat and plan to spend more compared with last holiday season, according to an annual survey by consulting firm Deloitte and a separate forecast by the National Retail Federation.

Holiday spending in November and December is expected to increase by 2.5% to 3.5% compared with 2023 and range between $979.5 billion and $989 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. That’s a more modest increase than the 3.9% year-over-year jump from the 2022 to 2023 holiday season, when spending totaled $955.6 billion. The NRF’s figure excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

Shoppers expect to spend an average of $1,778 on the holidays this year, 8% more than last holiday season, according to consulting firm Deloitte’s survey. The survey, which included about 4,000 consumers and was conducted in late August and early September, attributed that spending increase to a more favorable economic outlook, a perception among respondents that prices would be higher and more willingness to spend among higher-earning households with an annual income of between $100,000 and $199,000.

Low unemployment, a return to more typical inflation levels and a recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut are lifting consumers’ spirits, said Stephen Rogers, managing director of Deloitte’s Consumer Industry Center.

“People are still in a better frame of mind, despite the political chatter,” he said. “When they look at their bank account and think about what their financial situation is, they feel better.”

People shop (L) ahead of Black Friday at a Walmart Supercenter on November 14, 2023 in Burbank, California.

Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Home Depot, which sells a wide range of holiday decor including Santa-themed throw pillows and a giant animated reindeer for yards, the high demand for decor could be an opportunity. Yet the home improvement retailer said it’s prepared for consumers to seek value, too.

This holiday season, Home Depot bought more low-priced artificial Christmas trees, such as a prelit tree that sells for $49, said Lance Allen, senior merchant of decorative holiday for the home improvement retailer.

Signs showing support for both Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump sit along a rural highway on September 26, 2024 near Traverse City, Michigan.

Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Walmart and SharkNinja, that are hoping shoppers will browse and buy rather than become glued to the news. The election is on Nov. 5, and it could take days for a winner to be called if the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump ends up as close as polls suggest.

SharkNinja CEO Mark Barrocas described the election as the “biggest unknown” that will shape the holiday season.

“It may be a blip and it may be nothing, and it may disrupt things for a few weeks if the news cycle is all-consuming,” he said. “Christmas is going to come and there will be a holiday season. It’s just a matter of how many distractions there are.”

He said the election and the news cycle around it may also influence how consumers feel about the economy.

Walmart’s internal research suggests “an uptick in positivity” as its shoppers enjoy the fall and get ready for Halloween, said Jen Acerra, vice president of customer insights and strategy at Walmart.

“The one thing that is still out there and moving is what’s going to happen with the election, and what happens with the election will really determine if this is something that stays positive or not,” she said.

Already, some companies have blamed the election for taking a bite out of their sales. Amazon chalked up a weak forecast in August to election distraction that would dampen demand for online shopping, a comment some mocked as an excuse.

Delta Air Lines‘ CEO, Ed Bastian, said in a CNBC interview this month that the company expects lower demand before and after the election to hit the carrier’s revenue.

“Consumers will, I think, take a little bit of pause in making investment decisions, whether it’s discretionary or other things,” he said. “I think you’re going to hear other industries talking about that as well.”

After Hurricane Milton hit Florida, the city of Clearwater was flooded. Search and rescue operations are ongoing in the area.

Lokman Vural Elibol | Anadolu | Getty Images

Hurricane damage and winter temperatures

For retailers, cooler and wintery weather is always on the Christmas wish list.

Weather can tip shoppers into the holiday spirit and get them in the mood to buy thicker sweaters, coats and gifts, said Evan Gold, executive vice president for Planalytics, a Philadelphia-based company that advises retailers on weather-related inventory planning.

“There’s no external factor that influences consumers’ purchases as directly, frequently and immediately as the weather,” he said.

This year, the early fall got off to a rockier start. The now unofficial kickoff to the holiday shopping season marked by October sales events coincided with unseasonably warm temperatures in San Francisco and other parts of the country, and severe hurricanes that battered North Carolina and Florida. That makes shoppers less likely to want to buy sweaters, coats and artificial trees.

Yet the weather this year should eventually help retailers, Gold said, since November and December temperatures are expected to be colder than a year ago. He said the shift in weather, such as a dusting of snow or a cold snap, can help signal shoppers to get ready for the season.

Many families will just be trying to rebuild from hurricane damage rather than buying holiday gifts, which could redirect money to furniture, clothes or home repairs, Jack Kleinhenz, the NRF’s chief economist, said on a call with reporters.

“It’ll be just an adjustment in their budget in what they’ll be spending for, but it’s really too early to know the full impact on retail,” he said.

Home Depot expects that, too. It pulled holiday product out of 124 of its big-box stores to make room for items that hard-hit areas need, such as shingles and drywall, Allen said. Instead, he said, it plans to sell a more limited assortment in those stores of items such as wreaths and its top-selling trees.

“They’re trying to rebuild and recover their houses,” he said. “So obviously, they’re not going to go buy a nine-foot reindeer and put that out there.”

A shorter holiday season

Thanks to the calendar, the holiday rush may be on overdrive.

Shoppers will have five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year compared with last year — which could dampen spending or potentially motivate time-pressured shoppers to seek out rush shipping, curbside pickup or other quicker options to get gifts.

The pressure will be on retailers to make the most of each day and to deliver on convenience, as shoppers race to get what they need and expect items to arrive within a few hours or at minimum, within a few days, said the NRF’s Shay.

“A shorter period does have consequences and implications and one of those, of course, is that the shipping season will be shorter,” he said.

On a recent store tour, Kohl’s Chief Marketing Officer Christie Raymond said the retailer expects it will have to work harder to woo customers, especially lower- and middle-income shoppers, who have felt pinched by the cumulative effect of inflation and crunched for time.

“We think they’re feeling more squeezed than last year,” Raymond said. And, she added, shoppers have also said they are “feeling time-squeezed.”

To appeal to those consumers, Kohl’s wants to have more of what they need, Chief Merchandising and Digital Officer Nick Jones said.

The retailer has bulked up its offering of gift items, added more party dresses and started to sell a wider range of decorations, including Christmas trees, lawn ornaments and wrapping paper.

“We want to be a holiday destination,” he said. “We haven’t got the food, but we’ve got everything else.”