Right-wing political parties and populist leaders across the world thrive on the Us vs Them narrative. In the US, President-elect Donald Trump spoke darkly about the enemies within (those who oppose him) and the immigrants (“who eat pet cats and dogs”). In Europe, all parties on the right of the ideological spectrum view immigrants with suspicion and turn people against people on the basis of race, ethnicity, and religion. In Israel, the right wing privileges its right to land and livelihood and does not lose sleep over the lost lives of Palestinian children.

In India too, the BJP has thrived by positioning itself against the Other, constantly targeting the country’s largest minority (Muslims) and the smaller ones too. Now, after its disappointing show in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the nation’s pre-eminent party is back to the kernel of its ideological existence with a vengeance. No matter what the future holds, it is clear that political plot lines that hinge on the existence of Muslims will continue to be scripted in this country. In other words, the numerical setback has not translated into an ideological defeat of the RSS/BJP.

Also Read | BJP mounts an aggressive campaign to recapture tribal votes in Jharkhand

Today, the Us vs Them messaging is a brutal reality across the world, and as an electoral ploy, it seeks to unite the majority by demonising others. The emotional and intellectual kernel of this strategy comes from low-level grievances and prejudices but is spread through cutting-edge technologies, particularly the algorithm of social media that amplifies false news and catches eyeballs by providing a platform for base prejudices.

The world is hooked onto mobile phones and seems to frequently respond to politics that divides people into silos of identity, hate, envy, and resentment. From the US to India, the hollowing out of forces that seek to oppose right-wing demagogues without significant moral postures of their own has only made it easier to change realities by first coming up with a thousand falsehoods. Grand visions of liberation, revolution, social and economic transformation, or just plain justice are drowned in this din of Twitter (now X) threads and visual derangements.

Some extraordinary things are being said in the election-bound State of Jharkhand, but it is received as routine coverage, as par for the course. It has generated no real outrage in the legacy media. In a State where tribal people constitute a quarter of the population as per the last Census (2011), and 28 of the 81 Assembly seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes, the BJP’s pitch is centred on creating a narrative that Muslims pose a threat to Adivasis. The repeated campaign rhetoric of BJP leaders is about ghuspaithiyas (infiltrators) taking over tribal lands and marrying Adivasi girls.

In the Lok Sabha election, the BJP got no seats in the tribal-dominated parts of Jharkhand. The strategy behind the nasty rhetoric is obviously designed to counter this failure, even as the BJP seeks to hold on to the non-tribal pockets. The ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha government, led by Chief Minister Hemant Soren, is believed to be strong in the tribal areas while its principal alliance partner, the Congress, is in an organisational mess in the State. All of them constitute an “alliance of infiltrators” is what Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at his first election rally in Jharkhand. What he went on to say was quite shocking: “If they come to power, they will steal your roti, beti, and maati [livelihood, daughter, land].”

Modi is one among a pantheon of authoritarian populists who have come to power through the ballot box. But his current rhetoric marks a return to the traits he displayed during the Lok Sabha election when he made outlandish and wild statements that were not only ridiculous, but coming from a Prime Minister, potentially dangerous. To refresh memory, Modi had then said that should the Congress come to power, it would snatch away the mangalsutras of Hindu women and give them to their chosen people (read Muslims). Statements were also made about a Muslim reservation looming on the horizon even though faith-based reservation is not legally possible. And, historical Muslim rulers were frequently remembered for their atrocities.

Post-election analysis found that in places where the Prime Minister made the most extreme statements, the BJP actually lost. It could be argued that it was other factors and not Modi’s speeches per se that caused the setback for the BJP. But it did make the point that such rhetoric was not having the desired result. Subsequently, as seen during the recent Haryana election, Modi did not make himself central to the campaign, which was micromanaged by the BJP and the RSS. There were no extreme speeches by the Prime Minister because he kept himself out of the main frame of the campaign.

In Jharkhand, however, it is back to the old speeches full of communal tropes and outright insults that should ideally be called out by the Election Commission. The Jharkhand election-in-charge for the BJP is Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. A late entrant to the national party, he is trying to stand out by resorting to even more vicious rhetoric and spouting grave insults against Muslims. It does, however, seem that occasionally, he faces stiff competition from both the Prime Minister and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

The latter is facing nine crucial byelections in a State where the BJP lost many seats in the Lok Sabha election, including Faizabad where Ayodhya is located. Since then, the State leader—who is reportedly at odds with the party’s national leadership—has repeatedly focussed on the Muslim question. The subtle difference is that while in Jharkhand the BJP is seeking to evoke a fear of Muslims, in Uttar Pradesh, the Adityanath regime seeks to create a sense of pride with actions seen as “putting the minorities in their place”.

Apart from multiple cases that have been lodged against Muslim politicians, properties belonging to the minorities are bulldozed with impunity (despite Supreme Court admonitions), and laws have been brought in against religious conversion that actually give legal cover for vigilante actions by Hindutva stormtroopers. Terms such as “love jehad” (Muslims take away your daughters), “thook jehad” (Muslims spit in your food), and “land jehad” (Muslims take away your land) are promoted to communalise people’s minds with the administration’s approval.

Also Read | BJP’s ‘poach and polarise’ strategy for Jharkhand

This is, after all, the central ideological theme of the BJP and the RSS. Therefore, from Jharkhand to Uttar Pradesh to parts of Maharashtra, the BJP’s slogan now is “Batenge To Katenge” (“If we are divided, we will be cut down”). It has a raw elemental idiom to it, as the Hindi word “katenge” evokes the trope of Muslims as butchers. Within the spectrum of the Hindu Right, this is quite a journey away from the 2014 slogan “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas” (with everyone, for everyone) that was posited when Modi’s national journey began just over a decade ago.

It is intriguing that the Hindu-Muslim pitch is being amplified at a time when the NDA at the Centre survives on the support of regional parties that do not necessarily share its ideological vision, especially now that the BJP is no longer in an era of single-party dominance. It is the tone of the recent Haryana campaign that one thought the party would prefer going forward. But its reversion to the communal pitch could be a response to the demands for a caste census and the social justice plank that the opposition is busy constructing. Yet, the same opposition with the same plank faced a big setback in Haryana, where the BJP triumphed on its organisational strength alone. Or it could be that just as Donald Trump is who he is, this is also just who Modi is.

Saba Naqvi is a Delhi-based journalist and author of four books who writes on politics and identity issues.

Jharkhand is heading for a polarised Assembly election, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) raising the issue of Bangladeshi infiltration and vowing to implement the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), and the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) banking on its tribal leadership and its demand for a separate code for the Sarna tribal religion to gain victory.

Releasing the BJP’s manifesto on November 3 in Ranchi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah promised to “identify and deport” every infiltrator and take back the “land they usurped” from the tribal people. Shah also said that the tribal communities would be kept out of the ambit of the UCC, and announced that it would be implemented adopting the Uttarakhand model.

On this part, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at an election rally in Chaibasa in Kolhan division on November 4, “They are snatching your bread, they are taking away your daughters and they are also usurping your land (ye aapki roti cheen rahe hain, aapki beti bhi chcheeni rahe hain aur ye aapki maati ko bhi hadap rahe hain). It drew a sharp reaction from the Congress and the Trinamool Congress, who called it a new low after Modi’s remarks in Rajasthan and Gujarat during the Lok Sabha election about the Opposition “stealing away the Mangalsutra” and “stealing away buffaloes” from the people.

Also Read | Back as Chief Minister, Hemant Soren aims to ride sympathy wave in Jharkhand Assembly election

This was a scale-up of the BJP’s ongoing campaign in the Santhal Pargana region, which claimed that Muslims from Bangladesh were marrying tribal women and changing the demography.

Shah attributed the alleged decline in the tribal population in Jharkhand to this reason and promised to put an end to it as the BJP government did in Assam, where the National Register of Citizens (NRC) was implemented in 2018-2019.

In both Assam and Uttarakhand, the BJP has drawn flak for undermining the Muslim population but has retained power in a polarised atmosphere.

Rattled at the BJP’s attempt to create a rupture in the tribal-Muslim alliance assiduously built by the INDIA coalition in the State, Chief Minister Hemant Soren asserted that neither the UCC nor the NRC will be allowed in Jharkhand. He also said that his government would rely solely on the Chota Nagpur Tenancy Act (CNT) and the Santhal Pargana Act (SPT), the laws in force in the State, to protect the land ownership rights of the tribal people.

The JMM also upped the ante by promising to include the Sarna tribal religion (centred around the worship of nature) in the national census and implement a Sarna Code to govern tribal people. Four years ago, in 2020, the Jharkhand Assembly passed a resolution in its favour. Months ago when the Lok Sabha election was held, the BJP was cornered over the issue of the Sarna Code and lost all five seats reserved for the tribal communities.

With or without an alliance

In the NDA, while the BJP is contesting the majority of seats—68 out of 81—the lead alliance partner in the INDIA bloc, the JMM, is contesting only 43 seats. The Congress is contesting 30 Assembly seats as a part of the alliance and there are apprehensions that it might be the weak link, like in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh and 2020 Bihar Assembly elections.

While both the BJP and the JMM have a strong cadre base in the State, the former is also aided by the RSS. The other parties are mostly oriented around their leaders in the respective regions. But the Congress is confident of a good show. Party leader Alok Dubey said there is renewed confidence that the INDIA bloc will form the government once again.

After a strategy meeting of the party, Dubey said, “We took stock of our election preparations and various management activities for the final stretch of the campaign. We discussed ways to put our strategy into motion, from the Central and State level all the way to each booth. Our alliance is mounting a formidable campaign and we are in a strong position to form the government once again and continue the welfare and growth of Jharkhand for another five-year term.” However, Jharkhand has never re-elected an incumbent government in the past 24 years since the State was carved out from Bihar in 2000.

Of the five divisions—Kolhan, Santhal Pargana, North Chota Nagpur, South Chota Nagpur and Palamu—BJP was ahead in 2019 in only two—North Chota Nagpur and Palamu. Out of 25 seats in North Chota Nagpur, the BJP alone had won 10. It also won five out of nine assembly seats in Palamu division. Of the 14 seats in Kolhan, the BJP won none while it secured only 4 out of 18 seats in Santhal Pargana.

Out of the 15 Assembly seats in South Chota Nagpur, 11 are reserved for tribal candidates. Two of the 28 tribal reserved seats that the BJP won in 2019 were from this region. In total, the BJP got five seats in South Chota Nagpur and JMM-Congress eight. One was won by the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) and one by the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) [JVM(P)].

While in Kolhan the BJP is banking on three former tribal Chief Ministers—Champai Soren, Arjun Munda and Madhu Koda—for its revival, it hopes that polarisation will work in Santhal Pargana and that the alliance with AJSU in both divisions of Chota Nagpur. Playing safe, the BJP has fielded current MLAs and former MPs in the region.

As the BJP made a desperate bid to score over the JMM in tribal politics, one was witness to the spectacle of the tribal politician Mandal Murmu—one of the proposers of Hemant Soren’s nomination and a descendant of Sido-Kanhu (Sido Murmu and Kanhu Murmu) who led the 1855 iconic Santhal protest against the British and the zamindari system—joining the BJP on November 4.

Hemant Soren is contesting from Barhait in the Santhal Pargana region, where the JMM is in a relatively strong position. Despite the BJP’s focus on issues like Bangladeshi infiltrators and with Sita Soren, the Chief Minister’s sister-in-law, leaving the JMM and joining the saffron party in March (she is now contesting from the Jamtara seat), the JMM remains resilient.

Kolhan will be crucial

The 14 Assembly seats in the Kolhan region could decide the winner in the election. The BJP, which scored a duck there in the 2019 election, has now deployed all its machinery to change the outcome. It has fielded former Chief Minister Arjun Munda’s wife Meera Munda from Potka in East Singhbhum distirict, former JMM leader and former Chief Minister Champai Soren from Saraikela, and former Chief Minister Madhu Koda’s wife Gita Koda from Jagannathpur in West Singhbhum. All these candidates are from tribal communities. Champai Soren, who left the JMM and joined the BJP in August, is a prize catch for the party. He is called ‘Kolhan Tiger’ and the JMM is trying to prove hard that the tiger is toothless.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former Jharkhand CM and BJP candidate from Saraikela assembly constituency Champai Soren at a public meeting for the Jharkhand Assembly election, in Chaibasa on November 4.
| Photo Credit:
ANI

Other key seats in Kolhan are East Jamshedpur from where the BJP has fielded Purnima Sahu, the daughter in-law of former Chief Minister Raghubar Das, who was the only Jharkhand Chief Minister to have completed a full five-year term (2014 and 2019). Sahu is contesting against former Jharkhand Congress chief Ajoy Kumar, who as an IPS officer had served as Jamshedpur SP in the past.

The BJP lost the 2019 Assembly election in Jharkhand under the leadership of Das, an OBC candidate. Das himself lost to party rebel Saryu Rai, known once as the “Chanakya” of Jharkhand politics and who is now back in the NDA as the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] candidate from Jamshedpur West.

Rai earlier contested from this seat for the BJP but, after his revolt, he shifted to Jamshedpur East in 2019 and defeated sitting Chief Minister Das.

While the JMM, which had won 11 of the 14 seats in Kolhan in the last Assembly election, has fielded 9 of its sitting MLAs, the BJP has changed candidates in 10 seats. That reveals the state of mind of both the parties in the region.

Some of the Kolhan battles are interesting. Champai Soren had won the Saraikela seat for the JMM in 2019 against the BJP’s Ganesh Mahali. With Champai joining the BJP, the JMM has inducted Mahali and fielded him against the former Chief Minister from the seat.

Feedback from the ground suggests that while it could be smooth sailing for Champai Soren in Saraikela, his son Babulal Soren might find the going tough in Ghatshila. Addressing a rally in Ghatshila on November 5, Hemant Soren’s wife and candidate from Gandey Kalpana Soren cautioned against the BJP’s “money power” but asserted that only the bow-and-arrow symbol of the JMM would work there. JMM Minister Ramdas Soren is pitted against the newbie.

Gita Koda, who is contesting from Jagannathpur, and Meera Munda, the wife of former Chief Minister Arjun Munda, who is being fielded from Potka, are also strong candidates of the BJP.

Both Chief Minister Hemant Soren from Barhait in Santhal Pargana and Kalpana Soren in Gandey of North Chota Nagpur are well placed on the other side. The Gandey seat had fallen vacant after the resignation of Sarfaraz Ahmad this year and was won by Kalpana Soren in a byelection.

Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) candidate from Gandey Assembly constituency Kalpana Soren interacts at a campaign meeting ahead of the Jharkhand Assembly election, at Gandey, in Giridhi on October 29.
| Photo Credit:
Somnath Sen/ANI

Hemant Soren’s brother Basant Soren’s advantage in the Dumka Assembly seat is that it has traditionally been a JMM seat. The seat has been represented by Hemant Soren umpteen times, including in 2019 when he won both the Dumka and Barhait seats. After he chose to resign from Dumka, Basant Soren won the seat in a byelection in 2020. The BJP’s Lois Marandi, who lost the seat to the JMM both times, has now joined the JMM.

Three-term MLA Sita Soren, the eldest daughter-in-law of Shibu Soren, who lost the Lok Sabha election from Dumka on a BJP ticket after joining the party in March, is also breathing easy in the Jamtara seat. Chances of a win for Purnima Das will depend a lot on the role played by JD(U) leader Saryu Rai.

BJP state president Babulal Marandi, contesting from Dhanwar, might find the going much easier in his traditional seat as both the JMM and the Communist Party of India-Marxist-Leninist (CPI-ML) have opted for a friendly contest fielding separate candidates there. In the BJP stronghold of Ranchi, the State capital, the JMM is making a last-ditch attempt to win by fielding its Rajya Sabha MP Mahua Majhi against six-term MLA C.P. Singh. In the last Assembly election, Singh defeated Majhi by a margin of a little over 5,000 votes. The BJP has traditionally been strong in the urban seats in Jharkhand.

Former Union Minister Rameshwar Oraon is contesting from Lohardaga on a Congress ticket. He had defeated the BJP’s Sukhdev Bhagat in the 2019 Assembly election. The number of votes he got in this tribal seat was more than the combined votes of the BJP and AJSU, which fought separately.

In Bokaro, also called the Steel City, two-term sitting BJP MLA Biranchi Narayan (BJP) will once again face Sweta Singh (Congress). Singh is the daughter-in-law of former BJP veteran Samresh Singh, who is said to have given the lotus symbol to the BJP.

In the coal belt of Dhanbad, the BJP MLA for the last two terms, Raj Sinha, will face Ajay Dubey of the Congress, who had lost the 2014 Lok Sabha election from the seat to the BJP’s P. N. Singh.

It’s all relative

But the more interesting battle is in the coal belt in Jharia where the warring factions of Singh Mansion (residence of the family of former MLA and coal mafia leader late Suryadeo Singh) of Dhanbad, which used to call the shots, are battling it out.

Here the contest is between the sitting MLA from the Congress Purnima Neeraj Singh—wife of former deputy mayor of Dhanbad late Neeraj Singh—and BJP’s Ragini Singh, wife of former BJP MLA Sanjeev Singh. Neeraj was murdered in 2017 and Sanjeev Singh, his cousin, was arrested in the case. The clash between the two sisters-in-law also happened in 2019. Purnima Singh had then won against Ragini Singh. Clearly, the sympathy factor worked for Purnima Singh in the 2019 Assembly election after her husband’s killing, as Sanjeev Singh, who had won the seat in 2014, was arrested.

Alliance is key to power in Jharkhand. In 2014 when the JMM and the Congress fought separately, they could win only 25 seats but after forming the alliance in 2019, their tally rose to 47. The BJP learnt it the hard way in 2019 when it did not ally with the AJSU and could win only 25 seats—a substantial decline from the 42 it had bagged in alliance with that party in 2014.

This time, both sides have strong alliances. While the BJP-AJSU has added JD(U) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) to its grouping, the JMM-Congress also has the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Left parties in the INDIA bloc. With Babulal Marandi back in the BJP as its State chief, his party JVM(P)’s six per cent vote share may also add to the NDA’s numbers.

The new kid on the block

The emergence of the Jairam Mahato-led Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha surprised many people with its vote share in a number of Lok Sabha seats in the last general election. Mahato belongs to the same Kudmi-Kurmi caste that is the support base of the AJSU. His politics of “locals versus outsiders”, a pale remnant of the “diku (outsider) versus native” politics during the Jharkhand movement, could disrupt the existing course and discourse of political alignments in the State.

Mahato himself had secured 3.47 lakh votes when he contested from the Giridih Lok Sabha seat. This time, he is contesting from the Dumri Assembly seat and many people are sure that he will win.

The Kurmis, accounting for nearly 14 per cent of the votes, can tilt the balance in over 30 of the 81 Assembly seats in Jharkhand, particularly in the districts of Ranchi, Dhanbad, Hazaribagh, Jamshedpur and Giridih.

Also Read | Jharkhand: Defeat in all Lok Sabha seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes could hurt BJP in Assembly elections

Tribal people account for 26.21 per cent of Jharkhand’s population and have 28 seats reserved for them. The JMM had won 19 of them, the Congress 6, the BJP 2 and Marandi’s JVM(P) 1. Despite Marandi now being with the BJP, the party could not win even a single of the five Lok Sabha seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. And Hemant Soren is now out of prison.

Women voters outnumber men in 32 Assembly constituencies. Out of these 32, 26 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes, which means only 2 other seats reserved for STs have more male voters. Men migrate to other cities for work, especially from the tribal and Dalit segments; hence women’s votes are important. That possibly explains why the BJP has fielded more women this time, though most of them are from political families.

The BJP has pitched the Gogo Didi Yojana to counter the JMM-led alliance government’s Maiyan Samman Yojana to attract female voters. The BJP has promised in its manifesto that it would transfer Rs 2,100 per month to the bank accounts of women, under the scheme, after forming the government.

Under the Maiyan Samman Yojana, Rs 1,000 per month is credited to the accounts of over 50 lakh women in the State. Chief minister Hemant Soren said that the amount would be increased to Rs 2,500 every month from December, if his party is voted to power again.

Polarisation and promises apart, people in the tribal state are looking for a real change in their fortune. Will the politicians live up to the expectations? 

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Former Jharkhand Chief Minister Champai Soren, who recently switched allegiance to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has accused the Hemant Soren-led government of jeopardizing his safety by withdrawing all security vehicles assigned to him.

Former Chief Minister Champai Soren, previously with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), labeled the move as a “political conspiracy” intended to intimidate him.

“The Jharkhand government withdrew all security vehicles assigned to me, putting my life at risk, under a political conspiracy. I am not afraid of this move. The people of Jharkhand would provide security to me,” he asserted in an interview with PTI.

Champai Soren emphasized that he has always remained true to his values and believes the electorate will respond decisively against the JMM-led coalition in the upcoming assembly polls.

In response to Jharkhand Chief Minister and JMM leader Hemant Soren’s accusations that the BJP is “buying” political leaders, Champai stated, “No one can dare buy me. I have made crystal clear the circumstances behind leaving JMM.” His decision to join the BJP stems from feelings of “humiliation” and “disrespect” he claims to have experienced within the JMM.

Hemant Soren Accuses BJP of Divisive Tactics

Chief Minister Hemant Soren has launched a scathing critique of the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), likening them to “rats” undermining communal harmony in Jharkhand for electoral gain.

Speaking at a rally in Bhognadih, Hemant Soren alleged that the BJP is intentionally fostering discord between Hindu and Muslim communities, particularly highlighting the involvement of Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.

“RSS is invading the state like rats and destroying it. Chase such forces away when you see them entering your villages with ‘handia’ and ‘daru’ (locally brewed liquor)… They want to create communal disturbances and tension ahead of elections for political gains,” Soren declared during the rally, which he addressed virtually from Ranchi.

Hemant Soren warned of increasing provocations, such as throwing meat into temples and mosques, characterizing the BJP as a party primarily serving traders and industrialists. His comments seem directed at Champai Soren’s recent defection, which he views as part of the BJP’s strategy to manipulate local politics for its agenda.