Hundreds of farmers have been camping at the Haryana-Punjab Shambhu border for more than nine months now, disrupting key highways and blocking the vital link between Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Jammu and Kashmir.

A video now going viral shows a water tanker running over several women sitting on the road. Sharing this video, many claimed that it was from Haryana. An X user wrote, “The state brutality against female farmers. Remember the symbol, Om. Bulldozer Justice in UP vs Tractor Justice in Haryana.” Its archive can be seen here.

India Today Fact Check found that the viral video is more than three years old and from Amritsar in Punjab, not Haryana.

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Responding to the viral post, many claimed that this incident was old and from Amritsar, Punjab. Reverse-searching keyframes from the viral clip led us to the same video shared on X on January 28, 2021.

The post read, “2 Old Women were killed & 3 got injured when a tractor ran over them during the tractor parade.” This proves that the viral video is not recent.

A further keyword search led us to an NDTV report published on January 26, 2021. As per the report, a water tanker hit a group of women who were going to join the sit-in being held in favour of the farmers’ protests in Amritsar, Punjab.

The tanker hit five women, two of whom died. Three were seriously wounded. In its aftermath, people thrashed the tanker’s driver and handed him over to authorities. The police later filed a case and took the driver into custody.

We found several news reports published in January 2021 stating how an uncontrolled tanker ran over the women walking in the rally in Amritsar. The tanker seen in the reports also resembles the one in the viral video.

As per Amar Ujala, as soon as the tanker’s driver reached the protesting woman, he lost control of the tractor. The tractor kept moving for several metres, trampling the women. The women who died were Ninder Kaur and Simarjit Kaur, residents of Vallah, Amritsar.

It’s noteworthy that the same video went viral during a farmers’ Republic Day march in Delhi in 2021. At the time as well, India Today Fact Check debunked the misleading claims shared along with it.

Thus, It is clear that a 2021 video of a water tanker running over protesters in Amritsar was falsely shared as a recent incident in Haryana.

(Written by Ashish Kumar)

NEW DELHI: Exit polls on Saturday predicted that the Congress will be sweeping back into power in Haryana after a gap of 10 years, while its alliance with the National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir seems to be in a strong position and may form the next government, which last held assembly elections 10 years ago.

Congress to sweep Haryana: Pollsters

Exit polls released on Saturday predicted a Congress sweep in Haryana with the party winning around 55 seats, the BJP 27 seats, INLD 2 seats, JJP 1 seat and others around 5 seats.

In his first reaction to the exit poll results, senior Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda said: “I feel that we will win 65 plus-minus seats. Congress will form the government with a thumping majority.”
Haryana CM and BJP leader Nayab Singh Saini said he was “confident that the BJP would form the government again with a complete majority on October 8”.

“BJP will form the government with full majority. We are confident. Work has been done for every section of society in the last 10 years, and the state has been freed from regionalism and dynastic politics,” said Saini on the exit poll predictions.
The 90 seats of Haryana went to the polls in a single phase on October 5. The majority mark is 46 seats.
The exit polls for the Haryana assembly elections were released shortly after voting concluded around 6pm.
In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP had won 40 of the 90 seats, forming a coalition government with the JJP, which won 10 seats. However, JJP later broke out of the coalition and BJP relied on independent MLAs to sustain the government. The Congress had secured 31 seats.

Congress-NC have the edge in J&K: Exit polls

Exit polls for the Jammu and Kashmir assembly election have predicted that the Congress-National Conference alliance may win around 43 seats, 3 short of the majority, while the BJP may win 27 seats, PDP 7 and others 13.

With a hung assembly likely, former deputy chief minister of J&K Kavinder Gupta hinted that the BJP is already holding talks with “like-minded” parties.
“It is only in the exit polls that Congress-NC has got these seats, but BJP will emerge as the biggest party once the correct results are out. We are confident of getting more than 35 seats in Jammu province and the remaining from Kashmir. BJP will be in a better condition in Kashmir … Talks are going on with like-minded parties,” Gupta said.
National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah also dismissed the exit poll predictions.
In a post on X, Abdullah said, “I’m amazed channels are bothering with exit polls, especially after the fiasco of the recent general elections. I’m ignoring all the noise on channels, social media, WhatsApp Etc because the only numbers that matter will be revealed on the 8th of Oct. The rest is just time pass.”
The Election Commission of India said that an overall 63.88% voter turnout was recorded in the assembly elections in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which was held in three phases: September 18, September 25 and October 1.
The counting of votes for Haryana and J&K will take place on October 8.

A war of words erupted in poll-bound Haryana on Saturday after a woman Congress leader was ‘molested’ on stage during an event. The incident has spurred vehement calls for action from within the party while the BJP took jibes at the Opposition party. Meanwhile Chief Minister Nayab Saini said his government would take strict action if an application was filed before his government.

“I spoke to her, she told me that someone was touching her and trying to remove her from the stage. We saw the same in the video as well and when I confirmed this with her, she told me that someone misbehaved with her. If something like this happens to a woman today, it is highly condemnable. Action should be taken on this,” Seljatold reporters on Saturday.

The developments came even as voters in Haryana cast their ballots on Saturday. Voter turnout stood at 61% by 5:00 pm in the state.

The woman however claimed that “mischievous elements” were creating fake IDs with her name and commenting against her uncle and Congress candidate Jassi Petwar.

“Please don’t use my name. I am entirely with Congress. It can be seen that I was standing right next to my uncle Jassi Petwar. I stand with him and support him,” she said in a video message.

A video of the incident was first shared on social media by the BJP snd purportedly showed a woman farm leader being molested during the event. The ruling party had lashed out at the Congress and tagged it as being ‘anti-women’.

“They don’t respect anyone including women, the poor, and Dalits. This is in their culture and DNA. If we get an application in this regard, then we will take action. Our government will take strict action and not spare anyone. Women are an integral part of the society,” CM Saini told ANI.

(With inputs from agencies)

Bordering national capital Delhi, Haryana is among the richest states in India, with a per capita income ( ₹2.96 lakh in 2022-23) about 1.7 times the national average. While the numbers would suggest people in the state are better off than their compatriots elsewhere, the locals do not quite see things that way.

Kulana, for instance, is another world compared to the prosperous and urbanized parts of the state, far from the luxury-car outlets along Grand Trunk Road and gated high-rises in urban Gurgaon. An estimated 65% of the population lives in villages, and this rustic backyard is today setting the agenda for the elections.

Unlike in earlier years, when the assembly poll was a multi-cornered contest, the polls this year are a straight fight between the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has ruled Haryana for two back-to-back terms, and the opposition Indian National Congress (INC), which has ruled the state off and on since its founding. It will be the first head-to-head fight between the two national parties since the 2024 general election.

Unlike in earlier years, when the assembly poll was a multi-cornered contest, the polls this year are a straight fight between the incumbent BJP and the opposition Indian National Congress

It is an election that will be decided by issues such as farm woes, frustration with the army’s recruitment policy, lack of job avenues, and the anguish of the state’s vaunted wrestlers. Most of all it will be decided by which way Haryana’s castes choose to lean.

Farm distress dominates

Any discussion on the Haryana election usually begins with the problems farmers in the state face. While the agriculture sector contributes just about 16% to the state’s gross domestic product, farm issues and farmer angst have dominated its political landscape in recent years.

Political parties have been going all out to pacify and woo farmers. With good reason; the state has been a hotbed of farmer protests in recent years. It started in end-2020, when a mass agitation began after the Centre introduced a set of farm laws to reform the agriculture markets. The protests were led by farmers from neighbouring Punjab and Haryana, who picketed Delhi’s doorstep for more than a year, until the three laws were repealed in 2021.

A fresh round of agitations started this February, with farmers demanding legal status for the government’s minimum support price (MSP) regime. MSP is the price at which the Centre purchases crops, mostly rice and wheat. The farmers want this to be a legal obligation for 24 non-perishable crops. When the farmers decided to march on Delhi again, a face-off ensued, with the Haryana police firing teargas shells and rubber bullets on the protesters.

“We are going to plant mustard (a winter oilseed) now, but fertilizers are not available. The state government procures only a limited quantity of crops like mustard and bajra (at MSP) but payments are often delayed by months,” complained Amit Kumar, a farmer from Kulana. The village, unlike more fertile areas such as Karnal and Ambala, grows less rice and more of other crops, including bajra (pearl millet), as there isn’t enough water available for irrigation.

Hawa Singh, a 73-year-old farmer from Sonipat, complained that rising expenses on farming have pushed him to reduce spending on household items. “The Centre is giving ₹6,000 every year (under the PM-Kisan scheme) to farmers, but I end up paying many times more, because of the 18% GST (goods and services tax) on pesticides, and steep prices of diesel (used to run farm machinery),” he said.

However, state BJP leaders appear confident about winning the farm vote and a third term. “Farmer leaders may be unhappy but real farmers are satisfied with BJP’s performance. The state purchased 14 crops at MSP and it is paying farmers ₹1,000 per acre for not burning paddy stubble (which worsens air pollution during the winter months in the National Capital Region). Congress is fuelling protests for electoral benefits,” said Surjit Kumar Jayni, BJP in-charge of Fatehabad assembly seat.

To be sure, not all farmers are in step with the protests. For instance, a large number of them grow vegetables to supply Delhi’s markets. They depend less on state support and more on market-determined prices as an MSP has not been announced for perishable crops. “We suffered a lot during the farmer agitation of 2020-2021 as roads were blocked and vegetables could not be transported to the Azadpur mandi (in Delhi),” said Dharmendra, a 46-year-old farmer from Dipalpur village in Sonipat, Haryana.

In a bid to win over the farmers, the Congress has promised to provide a legal guarantee for MSP. But the BJP has questioned this; addressing farmers at a rally earlier this month, Prime Minister and BJP leader Narendra Modi said that the Congress has not done so in states where it is in power (Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh) and is making a false promise to farmers in Haryana. Modi also asserted that the Centre has removed the minimum export price on premium Basmati rice, which will help growers from the state earn more (the crop will be harvested beginning October).

Job and wrestler angst

The lack of decent jobs is another cause of angst, particularly among the landless. “Four of my children are graduates but none has a proper job,” said Shiv Kumar, a non-teaching staff member at a local private school in Hisar, and resident of a Valmiki mohalla (a settlement of families belonging to scheduled castes) next to Kulana. “It’s a struggle to manage daily expenses with my meagre earnings,” adds Kumar, who supplements a monthly pay of ₹5,000 with casual wage work.

The Congress has been raising the issue of unemployment, tying it with the new army recruitment scheme. “Thousands of youngsters from Haryana are illegally migrating to the USA, risking their lives, because they do not have jobs here. Families are selling land to send their children abroad… because they do not have the option of a secure army job anymore,” Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said at an election rally in Hisar, Haryana.

The Congress has not provided MSP in states where it is in power and is making a false promise to farmers in Haryana.
-Narendra Modi

The BJP’s Jayni countered this by saying that the state government had created 150,000 jobs during its term, in a clean and transparent manner.

In comparison with some states, Haryana certainly seems to be performing better. The unemployment rate among graduates in the state is at 6.6%, about half the national average, as per the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for 2023-24.

A protest by female wrestlers has also become an emotive issue in rural Haryana. Wrestlers from the state have won multiple Olympic medals. Last January, Sakshi Malik (Olympic bronze medalist in 2016) and Vinesh Phogat led a protest in Delhi alleging sexual harassment of women wrestlers by former head of the wrestling federation and former BJP parliamentarian Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh. The ‘daughters of the state’ being dragged on the streets of the national capital by the police touched a raw nerve.

Phogat, who attained celebrity status after assuring herself of at least a silver medal at the Paris Olympics in August only to be disqualified for being overweight by 100 gm, is contesting the elections on a Congress ticket from Julana assembly seat.

“Our sisters and daughters were dragged along the streets of Delhi. Anyone who protests, be it farmers or women wrestlers, is termed anti-national. This anger will be reflected on polling day,” said former wrestler Bajrang Punia, who is currently the chairman of farmer’s wing of the Congress party. He won a bronze medal at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and happens to be Vinesh’s brother-in-law.

The caste factor

Politics in Haryana has always been dominated by caste. Jats, an agrarian upper caste, who comprise about a quarter of the state’s population, traditionally align with the Congress. Other Backward Castes or OBCs account for about 30% and the BJP has banked heavily on their support. Dalits (Scheduled Castes) make up another 20% of the electorate. The saffron party is hopeful of winning a third term by again riding on a consolidation of non-Jat votes.

In the 2019 state elections, the BJP won 40 out of 90 seats with a vote share of 36.5%. It formed the government in alliance with the Jananayak Janata Party (JJP), which had won ten seats. This time around, the JJP, which got 15% of the vote and won 10 seats in the 2019 polls, is facing the wrath of the Jats for supporting the BJP. Party chief Dushyant Chautala has said he made a mistake by continuing as the deputy chief minister during the farmers’ agitation in 2020/21. Indeed, amid the clash between the BJP and Congress, other parties, including the AAP, INLD, and BSP, seem to have become a sideshow in this election.

In the general elections held earlier this year, the BJP’s vote share dropped by 12 percentage points from the 2019 general elections to 46%, while the Congress saw its vote share rise by 15 percentage points to 44%. As a result, the BJP lost five of the state’s ten Lok Sabha seats to the Congress.

In March, just a month before the Lok Sabha polls, and with six months remaining for the state elections, the BJP replaced chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar, who had helmed the state for nine years, with Nayab Singh Saini, in a bid to counter anti-incumbency. Khattar belongs to the Khatri caste, a minority Punjabi upper caste community, and was Haryana’s first Punjabi chief minister. Saini, who belongs to the OBC community, is the BJP’s answer to the dominant Jats.

A reading of the BJP manifesto for the state elections shows it is going all out to woo every section of the electorate. It has promised to procure 24 crops for which MSP is announced, a monthly cash transfer of ₹2,100 to women, a ₹10 lakh health insurance scheme, a guaranteed government job to Agniveers (after their four-year stint in the Army) and creating 200,000 government jobs for the youth.

The Congress, too, has promised a monthly cash transfer to women over 18 years of age, cooking gas at ₹500 per cylinder, ₹6,000 pension for elderly and widows, a caste census, restoration of the old pension scheme for government employees, and a legal guarantee on MSP for farmers. In addition, it has promised to provide ₹25 lakh health insurance and government jobs to families who lost a member during the farmer agitation.

While both parties seem to be offering similar sops, it is the state’s caste dynamics that are likely to determine the outcome of the election. On that front, the Congress could find itself on the backfoot with the Dalit vote.

Caste arithmetic is a big factor. The Congress is banking on a consolidation of Jat and Dalit votes, while the BJP is wooing OBCs. Both parties have promised multiple welfare benefits.

A shadow fight is taking place between Bhupinder Hooda, the Congress’s tallest Jat leader and former state chief minister, and Kumari Selja, the party’s Dalit face in Haryana, who is a former central minister and currently a member of Parliament from the Sirsa constituency. In the runup to the state elections, Selja has been noticeably absent from campaigning after being sidelined by Hooda and not being given much of a say in the party’s choice of candidates.

The BJP is banking on that rift, with Modi launching a tirade against Congress at his election rally in Sonipat on 25 September. “The Dalits of Haryana are seeing the drama happening within Congress. If Congress comes back to power the infighting within the party will destroy Haryana,” Modi warned.

Citing the Hansi assembly seat in Hisar as an example of how caste equations could play out, Yoginder Yogi, a local Congress leader said, “Of the 200,000 voters in Hansi, 48,000 are Jats. Whether the Congress will win this seat depends on how the Dalits and OBCs (about 120,000 together) vote. In the 2024 general elections, there was a consolidation of Dalit votes in favour of Congress. But the current internal dynamics of the party could hurt that Jat-Dalit alliance.”

Brewing discontent

The age limit for recruitment in the Indian army was reduced from 23 years to 21 years when the Agnipath scheme was launched in 2022. This seems to be a major grouse among young aspirants. In Sherpura village of Sirsa district, Kulwant Kumar missed his last shot at joining the army after he failed to qualify this year. “I have not thought of what to do next, maybe tend to cattle like my friends do,” said Kumar, 21, son of a small farmer, who will vote for the first time in these elections.

The lack of jobs and a 2022 change in the Indian Army’s recruitment policy to a short-service tenure of four years—known as the Agnipath Scheme—have demotivated the youth, say Congress leaders. “Joining the Army used to be a hope and a mark of financial security for youth from poorer families. You could see hundreds of them running on the streets every morning (preparing for the recruitment physical). Now, these dejected youth are getting into drugs and petty crime,” said Congress leader Punia.

According to Sandeep Sinwar, a farmer and activist from Sirsa, more than 50 youth from the village used to prepare for recruitment in the Army until a few years ago. “That is no longer an option now. We have been actively organizing village-level meetings to dissuade youngsters from falling for drugs, and getting into petty crime,” Sinwar said.

Will this discontent in rural Haryana outdo the support for BJP in urban sections? It certainly appears that way, say two political observers Mint spoke to. “The best case scenario for the BJP would be to win at least 35 seats by maintaining its tally in the urban and industrial belts of south Haryana (Gurgaon, Faridabad, Bhiwani),” said Rahul Verma, political scientist and fellow at Centre for Policy Research, Delhi.

“The BJP had everything going in its favour in 2019. Now, there is a desire for change. Still it would hope that factors like visible Jat dominance and infighting within Congress will help its cause,” said Verma. “Last time, it was a division of Jat votes between Congress and JJP that helped the BJP to form the government. But this time a division in Jat votes looks unlikely.”

Last time, it was a division of Jat votes between Congress and JJP that helped BJP to form the government.
-Rahul Verma

 

Yogendra Yadav, political activist and a former psephologist, who is a native of Rewari in Haryana, also believes the Congress will do well. “Large parts of what we call urban Haryana—towns like Karnal or Rohtak—are not strikingly different from the psychological and social structure of its villages, except for Gurgaon, which is an outlier,” he explained.

“After a few days of travelling in Haryana, it seems like more than half of the outcome of these elections was pre-decided by the electorate even before the campaign began. The current chief minister is more popular than the former one (Khattar). But we cannot forget that even in 2019, BJP did not get a clear mandate—the state had almost voted for a change,” Yadav added. “My sense is, this time it will be a clear verdict in favour of Congress.”

The BJP expelled eight leaders on Sunday evening after they opted to contest the upcoming Haryana Assembly elections as independent candidates. The list includes former minister Ranjit Chautala and former MLA Devendra Kadyan. The development also comes mere days after the Haryana Congress took a similar decision for 21 leaders.  

Several ticket hopefuls from both parties have jumped into the electoral fray in recent days after being denied a chance to contest the polls. Both the BJP and Congress have since managed to convince some of these ‘rebel’ candidates to withdraw their nominations while others continue to running spirited campaigns in the hope of emerging as independent kingmakers. 

Other prominent rebels who could cause trouble for the BJP include Deepak Dagar from Prithla, Jasbir Deswal from Safidon and Kalyan Chauhan from Sohna.

The announcement also came hours after senior BJP leaders JP Nadda and Amit Shah led rallies in the northern state on Sunday. The Home Minister has addressed the issue of some rebels contesting as independents during several recent rallies and urged voters to only cast their ballots for the “lotus” symbol.

Haryana is slated to vote on October 5 with votes being counted a few days later on October 8. The previous election had seen BJP emerge as the single largest party with 40 seats while the Congress won 30 seats in the 90-member state legislative assembly. 

The Opposition Congress also faces a similar dilemma with another nine ‘rebel’ leaders contesting the upcoming polls against chosen candidates. 

State chief Udai Bhan wrote to senior party leaders on Sunday seeking stern action against the group for indulging in “anti-party activities”. The letter recommended the expulsion of Sharda Rathore, Rohita Revri, Satbir Bhana, Rajkumar Valmiki, Kapoor Narwal, Virender Gogdia, Harsh Kumar, Lalit Nagar and Satbir Ratera. 

(With inputs from agencies)

The BJP was a fairly insignificant player in the political landscape of Haryana until 2014. The Narendra Modi wave in the Lok Sabha election that year was enough to carry the BJP to a convincing victory in the Assembly election held later that year; the party won 47 of the 90 seats and tasted power on its own for the first time in the State. In 2019, it won 40 seats—46 is needed for a simple majority—but was able to return to power with the support of Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which won 10 seats.

In October, the party will complete a decade in office, but a third term appears a bleak prospect as of now: it has the baggage of anti-incumbency and a below par performance in the general election that might go against it. However, the BJP is pulling out all the stops to ensure a hat trick of wins because a loss in Haryana will dent its image further after its less than stellar performance in the Lok Sabha election. In Haryana, the BJP and the Congress shared the 10 seats in the State equally; in 2019 the BJP had won all the seats.

Also Read | Is BJP losing its grip on Haryana?

The Congress is the favourite as of now but is grappling with internal strife as its leaders talk in different tongues and do not appear to be on the same page. Indeed, the coming Assembly election, most analysts say, is the Congress’ to lose.

JJP, Azad in alliance

The JJP on August 27 announced an alliance with Chandrashekhar Azad’s Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) for the upcoming Assembly election. Azad, the Bhim Army leader, who was elected to the Lok Sabha from Nagina in Uttar Pradesh, will be making his first foray into Haryana. The JJP will contest 70 seats and the Aazad Samaj Party 20.

Regional outfits that once ruled the roost in Haryana, such as the Indian National Lok Dal led by Abhay Chautala, son of former Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala, and the JJP were decimated in the general election. Yet, these Jat-dominated outfits are confident of making a comeback in the Assembly election.

The Aam Aadmi Party, too, fancies its chances. In the general election, it contested, unsuccessfully, the Kurukshetra seat as an ally of the Congress. The utterances of some Congress leaders indicate that the alliance is unlikely to extend to the Assembly election.

Confident BJP

Despite the odds stacked against it, the BJP is not unduly rattled. Party leaders said that they had learnt their lessons from the Lok Sabha electoral setback and were confident of the party overcoming the odds. The party is hopeful of harnessing the strength and resourcefulness of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh cadre in the campaign, unlike last time when the cadre’s efforts were seemingly half-hearted.

The BJP’s confidence stems from its vote share in the general election. Despite losing half of the seats, it garnered a healthy vote share of over 46 per cent. However, this is a sharp fall of about 12 per cent from the 58 per cent it had in 2019. The Congress ended up with 43.6 per cent, a bump of more than 15 per cent from 2019.

The contest, for now, is more or less evenly poised, with the Congress enjoying a slight advantage.

Consider this: At the Assembly segment level in the Lok Sabha election, the BJP won 44 of the 90 Assembly segments. The Congress was a close second, leading in 42 segments; the AAP led in 4 segments in Kurukshetra.

This performance in the Assembly segments puts the INDIA bloc marginally ahead, and the onus is on the Congress to keep the momentum going. The party is known to inflict self-goals and has not been very good at converting votes into seats in elections.

Congress infighting

Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and other senior Congress leaders in the State, such as Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala, are often at loggerheads. Despite the All India Congress Committee’s efforts to put out internal fires, the embers continue to glow—the warring factions have even announced separate statewide yatras to underscore their clout.

The 76-year-old Hooda has indicated that this could be his last election, which has in a way worsened the crisis within the party. The senior Hooda, much to the chagrin of Selja and Surjewala, will want the high command to name him as the chief ministerial face. Besides, he is also keen on passing the baton to his son Deepender Singh Hooda (46), an MP.

The pre-eminence of the junior Hooda could sharpen the existing fault lines. Selja, MP from Sirsa, has already made her dissent noticeable by objecting to attempts to name Bhupinder Hooda as the Chief Minister face. She has maintained that the party does not project a chief ministerial face when in the opposition.

Ticket allocation is another process that is likely to fuel dissent. It was in play ahead of the general election when senior leaders Kiran Choudhry and her daughter, Shruti Choudhry, left the party to join the BJP after Shruti was denied the ticket. The Congress high command knows full well that the senior Hooda is indispensable as a Jat leader with a pan-Haryana appeal; Selja and Surjewala are not in his league.

However, for all its confidence, the BJP has a lot of ground to cover. In May, just before the Lok Sabha election, three independent MLAs withdrew thei support to the government, leaving it with a wafer-thin majority.

The party’s strategy is to take steps to offset anti-incumbency and also woo the sizeable Dalit vote. It has not tasted much success in the latter, losing the reserved seats of Ambala and Sirsa in the general election.

The party’s electoral strategy lays emphasis on the consolidation of the non-Jat vote, including Dalits and Punjabis. The flip side, though, is that this has led to counter-polarisation of the Jat vote, which cost the BJP dear. The Congress gained by pitching the “alienation of Jat” theory against the BJP.

Other factors

The Jat vote share, a sizeable 33 per cent, will remain crucial to the outcome of any election in Haryana. The Congress’ gain in vote share in the Lok Sabha election can be attributed not just to gains in Jat-dominated constituencies such as Rohtak, Hisar, and Sonipat, but also to the split in the Dalit vote.

The Congress is keeping its ammunition dry, even as the party’s draft manifesto promises a social security pension of Rs.6,000 a month, restoration of the old pension scheme, a 100 square yard plot for the poor, and 300 units of free electricity, among others.

Also Read | Even stevens in Haryana as Congress scripts resounding comeback

The AAP is riding high after its senior leader Manish Sisodia was released on bail in early August. AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal’s wife, Sunita, is leading the charge in what is Kejriwal’s home State.

Although the AAP lost in Kurukshetra, its vote share in Haryana rose from 0.3 per cent to 3.94 per cent. Ahead of the election, Sunita Kejriwal launched five “Kejriwal’s guarantees”, including free electricity, education, medical treatment, and employment. The party also announced a monthly aid of Rs.1,000 to every woman in the State, a promise that was also made in Punjab but remains unfulfilled.

The JJP was unceremoniously axed by the BJP as an ally just ahead of the Lok Sabha election. Party leaders believe the Assembly election is a different ball game altogether. In the 2019 Assembly election, the JJP emerged kingmaker when the BJP won 40 seats and the Congress 31. The JJP, with 10 seats and a sizeable 14.8 per cent vote share, held the key then. It brokered a deal with the BJP, and Dushyant Chautala was made Deputy Chief Minister.

Skewed ticket allocation is likely to throw up turncoats and Independents galore, and that may have an impact on government formation in case there is a hung Assembly this year.

Gautam Dheer has been covering policy and politics in Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh for over two decades.