Defying pollsters, exit polls, and predictions, the BJP scored a hat trick in Haryana, albeit with a narrow lead in the recent Assembly election. It formed a government on its own sans any ally, and Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini assumed office for a second consecutive term with relative ease. But the euphoria did not last long.

In the first Assembly session convened after the new government took over, the opposition, led by the Congress and the electorally diminished Indian National Lok Dal, attacked the government on the issue of fertilizer shortages in the sowing season. The government denied it and accused the opposition of spreading rumours. Significantly, the BJP at the Centre too has denied a fertilizer crisis.

However, the fact is that farmers in Haryana, including women, were seen queuing up for hours for bags of diammonium phosphate (DAP) outside shops selling the fertilizer through Aadhaar-linked point of sale (PoS) machines. DAP is an essential fertilizer required at the beginning of the sowing season for Rabi (October-December) crops. According to reports from various districts, farmers spent days together at grain markets awaiting fertilizer supplies but returned empty-handed.

Matters came to a head on November 9, when Ram Bhagat, a 34-year-old marginal farmer from Bhikewala village, died by suicide after repeated attempts to get DAP failed. His death triggered huge protests.

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Inderjit Singh, vice president of the All India Kisan Sabha, said women were seen queuing up from 4 am onwards to get DAP. The uncertainty and the pressure of sowing led to minor skirmishes among farmers forcing the sale of fertilizer even at police stations.

“During this crisis, the Chief Minister has repeatedly denied there is any shortage. The very day he said that, Naveen Jindal, BJP MP from Kurukshetra, said there was a terrible scarcity of DAP in his constituency. Interestingly, this includes Ladwa, the Chief Minister’s own Assembly constituency,” Inderjit Singh told Frontline.

The economist Vikas Rawal, who has worked extensively on issues relating to agriculture, noted that he found it strange that despite the persistent shortage of fertilizer, there has not been any impact on agricultural output at the national level. This, he said, raises suspicion that the output figures might have been fudged.

According to Rawal, there was a 38 per cent shortage of DAP between the assessed requirement and the availability of fertilizer in October. Supply shortages can be explained by reduced imports because of high global prices. However, the shortage in fertilizer persisted despite the fact that the international prices of DAP had not gone up.

“In October 2019, the availability of DAP was 25.5 lakh tonnes. In October 2024, it was 11.45 tonnes, which was 55 per cent less than in October 2019. This is the scale of shortage that we have,” he told Frontline.

He said despite the BJP getting elected to Haryana once again, nothing had been done to deal with procurement, marketing, credit supply, or fertilizer supply. “The Meri Fasal, Mera Byora portal to digitise crop records is a gimmick. Data on this portal show a high proportion of tenant farmers. I am not sure whether there are this many tenant farmers in Haryana. Are these fictitious claims of tenancy in order to claim benefits?” he asked, adding that the introduction of the Aadhaar-linked PoS machines for fertilizer sale since 2017 had affected farmers badly.

Synthetic fertilizers, said Rawal, are important for India’s food security and agricultural growth. Over the past three decades, he said, domestic production had fallen short of fertilizer demand, and India had become increasingly import dependent during this period. The share of imports in the total supply of fertilizer ranged from 60 per cent for DAP to 100 per cent for muriate of potash (MoP).

According to Rawal, even the raw material for the domestic production of phosphatic fertilizers was imported, mostly in the form of phosphoric acid. A high dependence on imports had rendered agricultural production and food security vulnerable to the vagaries of international markets and geopolitical situations, he said.

Then there were global monopolies. Around 84 per cent of MoP came from 7 companies, and the top 10 fertilizer companies in the world accounted for 38 per cent of the global production.

Government in denial mode

The Indian demand for fertilizers, he said, was the highest at the time of Kharif (May-July) and Rabi sowing. During the Kharif season of 2020, when shortages were first felt around August, the Centre held a meeting with State Agriculture Ministers and asserted that there was no shortage of fertilizer in the country. This, he said, was stated on the floor of Parliament as well in 2021 and 2022.

On November 1, 2021, the Union Minister for Chemicals and Fertilizers refuted the claim of shortages and stated that the government was constantly monitoring the production, imports, and movement of fertilizers to ensure that farmers received adequate quantities. In July 2022, he reiterated in Parliament that fertilizer availability was at comfortable levels for the Kharif season. In November, he stated that there was more than enough to meet the needs of the Rabi season.

Rawal, however, said that the shortfall was consistent in 2020, 2021, and 2022 compared with 2019. In 2023 as well, the availability of DAP had not reached the levels of 2019. There were similar shortages of potash, MoP, and urea, which led to black marketing.

An issue he highlighted was how under the method of distributing fertilizer through electronic PoS machines, a limited amount of fertilizer was allocated per unit of land owned by farmers. This forced them to turn to the black market to meet the shortfall.

Significantly, the Haryana government has not denied the existence of a black market. In response to a question in the Assembly this year, Haryana Agriculture Minister Shyam Singh Rana gave details of raids and other supply stabilisation methods in the context of black-marketing of fertilizer. But he stuck to the government’s position that there was no shortage of DAP.

Stubble burning

In addition to fertilizer shortage and tardy paddy procurement, the farming community has been vexed by the penalties for stubble burning, or the burning of the residual paddy or wheat straw after harvest. Generally, it is done after the harvest of the Kharif crop in October in preparation for the sowing for Rabi that occurs in November.

“The biggest pollutants are construction activities, vehicles, firecrackers, and industry. But farmers are targeted for congesting the lungs of city dwellers. Burning of stubble alone does not lead to so much pollution. Besides, what option does the farmer have or is offered? Can the stubble be used as cattle feed? Burning stubble affects the farmer too. But sowing has to take place at the appropriate time. The issue is raised every October, and then they forget all about it till the next season,” said Inderjit Singh.

In fact, the Agriculture Ministry had, on December 9, 2021, assured farmers protesting at the Delhi borders in writing that they would be exempt from any criminal liability for stubble burning. Within a month of assuming office, however, the Haryana government doubled the existing fine.

On top of it, in the first week of November, the Centre issued a new set of rules under the Commission for Air Quality Management in National Capital Region and Adjoining Areas. The new CAQM Rules (Imposition, Collection and Utilization of Environmental Compensation for Stubble Burning) have fixed different slabs of fines on the basis of the acreage: Rs.5,000 for those owning less than 2 acres, Rs.10,000 for 2 to 5 acres, Rs.30,000 for 5 acres or above. In addition, crops from farms blacklisted in the records would not be procured.

“What is the connection between stubble burning and crop procurement? The farmer has a right to sell his produce in the market. It is vindictive. Now drones are used to identify fires due to stubble burning. FIRs are registered, and farmers are expected to turn up at the police station. There is a lot of resentment in both Haryana and Punjab,” said Singh.

He said rather than penalise farmers for stubble burning, the government should take action on issues such as gate passes issued at mandis on fake vehicle numbers and other issues concerning farmers. Recently, in Karnal, the district administration uncovered a scam involving massive deletions of gate passes issued for farmers in the grain markets in the district.

Farmers see red

To compound matters, the State government issued orders in mid-October to all deputy commissioners, district nodal officers, and agriculture directors to make “red entries” in the farm records and lodge FIRs against those caught burning stubble, according to the CAQM’s directions.

The “red mark” entry in the farm records restricts farmers from selling their crop at the mandis through the e-kharid portal for the next two seasons. All deputy (agriculture) directors are to comply with making such entries with respect to stubble-burning offenders.

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November 26 will mark the fourth anniversary of the farmers’ siege at Delhi, which will be observed with support from central trade unions and agricultural workers’ unions. “The movement will intensify. It is being said that farmers were not successful in punishing the BJP electorally in the Haryana elections and that the farmers’ movement has lost relevance. This is an incorrect assessment. It was precisely because of farmers’ movements in Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and western Uttar Pradesh that the BJP was reduced to 240 seats in the Lok Sabha,” said Singh.

It is believed that there were efforts to weaken the farmers’ movement in the run-up to the Assembly election. Some farmer outfits unilaterally declared a “Delhi chalo” programme early this year. This did not have the assent of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM), the broad front that had led the siege at the borders of Delhi in 2020-21. Distinguishing themselves from the SKM, these outfits claimed that they were non-political, and in several public meetings during elections, they said they were not campaigning for any party.

A farmer leader, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that such statements may have contributed to a certain extent in influencing the outcome of the Haryana election. At the moment, the farming community is vexed over the issue of persistent fertilizer shortages and angry over the imposition of hefty fines for stubble burning. Given the track record of the government in dealing with issues of such magnitude, a resolution of either issue will require a lot of political will and commitment.