The Election Commission of India has announced the schedule for the Maharashtra Assembly election. Voting will take place in a single phase on November 20, with the counting on November 23. The current Assembly’s tenure ends on November 26, so the oath-taking ceremony for newly elected MLAs must be completed before that date. While the last five Assembly elections in Maharashtra were held in October, this marks the first time voting will occur in November, near the end of the Assembly’s term. An electorate of 9.59 crore voters (4.95 crore men and 4.64 crore women) will decide the fate of candidates across 288 constituencies. Nearly 19.48 lakh are first-time voters. As many as 25 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs) and 29 for the Scheduled Castes (SCs).

Following the Haryana Assembly election results on October 8, in which the ruling BJP trumped the Congress despite the perceived widespread anti-incumbency sentiment, political pundits have been quick to draw parallels between the two States and see the Haryana result as a pointer to the possibilities in Maharashtra. However, caste dynamics and agrarian issues, mostly involving the dominant Jat community, differ in both States. Moreover, in Maharashtra, the focus will be on the State’s progressive identity, legacy of social justice politics, shifting political dynamics, and declining social indicators.

Political stability will be an important factor in the election. Between 2019 and 2024, Maharashtra saw three Chief Ministers, one of whom was in office for only 70 hours (Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP). The past five years also saw four Deputy Chief Ministers, with Ajit Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) being sworn in three times (from two different political parties). Besides Pawar, Fadnavis too is a Deputy Chief Minister in this government.

The split within the Shiv Sena (into the Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde factions) and the NCP (into the Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar factions) has increased the number of key political players to six, and this election could well decide which faction of these parties truly represents the cadre.

In the recent Lok Sabha election, Maharashtra voted in favour of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) consisting of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar), and the Congress. The MVA won 31 of 48 seats in the State, while the ruling Mahayuti (the Shiv Sena led by Shinde, the BJP, and the NCP led by Ajit Pawar) could win only 17. The Congress increased its tally from just 1 seat in the 2019 election to 13 this time. The BJP’s tally fell from 23 to 9. The Shiv Sena (UBT) won 9 seats, two more than the Shinde-led faction. The NCP(SP) won 8 seats, and Ajit Pawar’s party only 1. An Independent who won extended support to the Congress.

The MVA’s success is attributed to the BJP’s ambivalence over the Maratha reservation issue, the agricultural crisis, and subnationalism. These issues will be potent in the Assembly election too. The Maratha community, which accounts for 30 per cent of the State’s population, has been agitating since August last year for reservation.

Also Read | Haryana’s surprise election result: A sign of things to come in Maharashtra?

Their leader, Manoj Jarange-Patil, went on a fast demanding the Kunbi certificate for Marathas of the Marathwada region, which would help them get reservation in jobs and education.

Kunbis belong to the Other Backward Classes (OBCs). Chief Minister Shinde promised them reservation in the OBC category, but the OBCs objected on the grounds that it would encroach on their rights. The issue had an impact on voting behaviour in at least 12 Lok Sabha seats, and the government’s failure to resolve the issue meant that the Mahayuti won only one of the 12 seats.

Jarange-Patil’s agitation has not lost momentum. On September 17, he went on his sixth hunger strike; he ended it eight days later because of ill health.

Cabinet’s approval of Justice Shinde Committee report

On September 30, the Maharashtra Cabinet approved the report of the Justice Sandeep Shinde Committee, which was constituted to expedite the process of issuing the Kunbi certificate on the basis of historical records. This is viewed as a significant step to appease the Maratha community ahead of the Assembly election.

Unlike in Haryana, where non-Jats rallied behind the BJP, the issue of reservation has sharpened the identity consciousness in many castes in Maharashtra. The fact that the Mahayuti government has accepted the Maratha reservation demand but has not yet implemented it is a sore point among them.

Then comes the issue of the Dhangar community, which now belongs to the OBC-Nomadic Tribes category, wanting ST status. The government has formed a committee to look into their demand, but this has disturbed the STs, who constitute 9 per cent of the total population. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Mahayuti (National Democratic Alliance) won only one of the four seats reserved for STs in Maharashtra, as against all four in 2014 and 2019.

Another issue that affected the BJP’s chances in the Lok Sabha election in Maharashtra was the falling prices of onion, cotton, and soya bean. The onion farmers’ crisis cost the Mahayuti eight Lok Sabha seats. The Union government has now suspended the export duty on onions. However, onion prices at Agriculture Produce Market Committees (APMCs) in Maharashtra have not improved much.

To placate cotton and soya bean farmers, who wield huge influence in 11 Lok Sabha constituencies, the government has offered to pay Rs.2,500 crore in subsidies to 65 lakh farmers. This is the difference in the market price and the minimum support price (MSP) for both crops. On September 30, the government transferred Rs.5,000 for an acre to every cotton and soya bean farmer. A farmer is entitled to subsidy for his crop on 2 hectares. These measures are aimed particularly at farmers of Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, once BJP strongholds that have since shifted their allegiance to the Congress.

Just as in Haryana, the agrarian crisis is of great significance in Maharashtra too. However, the election in the western State will be held when it is harvesting time for cotton and soya bean. More than the subsidies, the government will have to see that farmers get the desired price in this season. Managing the agricultural market in real time could pose a tough challenge.

Mahayuti’s trump card

What looks bright for the Mahayuti are the good monsoon season and the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin (Chief Minister’s My Beloved Sister) Yojana, a cash-transfer scheme that aims to reach 2.5 crore women aged between 21 and 65 with Rs.1,500 a month (see “Maharashtra’s Ladki Bahin scheme: Great expectations?”, Frontline website, September 26, 2024). Its leaders hope that this single scheme will change the “narrative” of the election. For the Ladki Bahin scheme, the government has already reached out to 1.85 crore women. But if the Mahayuti is seen as leveraging the government machinery, it could backfire.

What matters more is that voters seemed not to have taken kindly to the BJP’s political manouevres in splitting the Shiv Sena and the NCP in order to gain power. This was seen as an attack on Maharashtra by Delhi. The first sign of voter discontent manifested itself in the Lok Sabha election, although other issues such as the Ram temple, unemployment, and inflation too played a role.

Additionally, the relocation of industrial projects to Gujarat has raised concerns about the Central government’s neglect of Maharashtra. This becomes stronger with the connection of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah to Gujarat. MVA campaigns revolving around this could work to its advantage.

Then there is the polarising tactics of the BJP, with leaders such as Nitesh Rane making communal speeches at rallies. Fadnavis recently accused the minorities of engaging in “vote jehad” in 11 constituencies in the Lok Sabha election, where the party believes that Muslims voted en bloc for one party. Organisations affiliated with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh have also taken an aggressive stance over the recent communal tension in western Maharashtra’s Kolhapur (over removal of encroachments near the Vishalgad fort) and Konkan’s Bhiwandi (over rumours of stone throwing on a Ganesh idol immersion procession).

There will in all likelihood be three alliances in the election, with smaller parties such as Bachchu Kadu’s Prahar Janshakti Party (PJP), Raju Shetti’s Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana, and Sambhajiraje Chhatrapati’s Swarajya Sanghatana engaging in talks to form an alliance. Bachchu Kadu, who has been with the Shiv Sena, founded a sociopolitical organisation called Prahar in the early 2000s. It later became the PJP, gaining influence in the Achalpur and Chandur Bajar tehsils. In 2004, Kadu was elected to the Assembly and is now expanding his influence across 32 Assembly seats in western Vidarbha.

Shetti’s Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana is a splinter group of the once-strong farmers’ movement in the State. Shetti believes that farmers’ interests can be safeguarded without aligning with the major parties. As such, he contested the Hatkanangle Lok Sabha constituency in Kolhapur district. Although he lost, his organisation has a presence in 40 Assembly constituencies in the sugar belt of western Maharashtra.

Sambhajiraje Chhatrapati is the son of Shahu Maharaj, a descendant of the Maratha king Shivaji Maharaj. He has been trying to mobilise the Maratha community for reservation over the past three years. However, he lost prominence when Jarange-Patil entered the scene. He claims to have a sizeable influence in 120 Assembly constituencies in north Maharashtra, Marathwada, and western Maharashtra.

Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) have significant influence in different pockets of the State. Both leaders have already started announcing their candidates in various constituencies. Raj Thackeray supported the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha election, but he has decided to go solo in the Assembly election. Although his party has only one MLA, its influence is spread across some 65 constituencies in the Mumbai, Pune, and Nashik regions.

Also Read | Maharashtra’s Ladki Bahin scheme: Great expectations?

The VBA polled 2.75 per cent votes in the Lok Sabha election. It does not have any MLA. It is banking on the 11 per cent Dalit votes in the State.

Critics see the creation of a third front as the BJP’s ploy to split the MVA votes. But the Mahayuti’s seat-sharing has been problematic just as it was during the Lok Sabha election. If the MVA capitalises on this as an example of divisive tactics, it would be able to consolidate non-Mahayuti votes.

Dominant political families

Another significant shift in Maharashtra politics is the resurgence of the erstwhile dominant political families, which started with the Lok Sabha election and has gained momentum ahead of the Assembly election. Many of them who faced setbacks in the past 10 to 15 years hope to regain their hold in their respective areas and have joined hands overtly or covertly. (“Reviving a dormant legacy”, Frontline, April 26, 2024). Although it may seem to be to the advantage of the MVA, the outcome could be different if Mahayuti leaders portray it as a battle between feudal lords and the people.

Apart from the political alliances, ideological battles are also intensifying. The RSS has reportedly deployed senior office-bearers to coordinate with the BJP in the State. They are holding district-wise meetings to activate the organisational machinery.

Meanwhile, citizens’ initiatives such as the Bharat Jodo Abhiyan, Lok Morcha 2024, and Nirbhay Bano have started awareness campaigns among the people about the election. Haryana’s results may have given the BJP a shot in the arm, but it has definitely served notice to the MVA to get its act together.

As the clock ticks down to November 20, the coming weeks will show if the MVA can address the State’s complex issues effectively, or if the Mahayuti will follow Haryana’s path to victory in this crucial election.

The Haryana Assembly election in 2024 threw up a historic victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party. For the first time since the State’s formation in 1966, a party has formed a government for a third successive term. This victory marks the BJP’s largest win in the last three Assembly elections. The BJP won 48 of the 90 Assembly seats, while the Congress won 37 seats. The electoral contest was nail-biting and bipolar in terms of vote share, with the two major parties receiving nearly 80 per cent of the votes polled in the election. In terms of vote share, the gap between the BJP and Congress was just 0.8 per cent in favour of the BJP.

It is important to note that in Haryana, the combined vote share of the two major parties had never touched 70 per cent. Even in the 2019 Assembly election, the BJP and the Congress together polled only 64 per cent. What does this number explain? How did the BJP manage to get another term with a bigger share of seats and votes despite facing a palpable anti-incumbency in the State?

The BJP has been ruling the State since 2014. Just before that, in the 2009 Assembly election, the party secured only four seats with 9 per cent of the votes. It won double-digit seats in 1996 only, when it formed an alliance with the Haryana Vikas Party. In that election, the BJP won 11 seats with 9 per cent of the votes. The party has grown remarkably since then in the State, particularly with decisive victories in 2014 and 2019, leveraging caste-based strategies and nationalistic sentiments.

For a long time, the Congress and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) were the two major parties in the State. However, their combined vote share never crossed two-thirds of the total votes, which means that one-third of the electoral support was for the smaller parties and independent candidates. This trend changed in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, when the BJP and the Congress got 87 per cent of the votes. However, in the 2019 Assembly election, this came down to 64 per cent, with the reason for the decline being the BJP. The party lost 22 per cent of the votes within six months. Once again, in the 2024 parliamentary election, both the BJP and the Congress polled 90 per cent of the total votes. In terms of alliances, the NDA and the INDIA bloc together polled 94 per cent of the votes.

From the 2024 Lok Sabha election to the 2024 Assembly election, the BJP and the Congress lost 6 and 4 per cent votes, respectively. However, this time, the two parties polled 40 and 39 per cent votes, respectively (Chart 1). Two parties have never consolidated this large a vote share in any Assembly election in the State.

Three trends

Apart from the vote consolidation, three trends emerge from the chart above: (1) Both the BJP and the Congress have been gaining votes in each Assembly election since 2014. The BJP’s continuous gain has been since 2009. (2) The INLD (and the Jannayak Janta Party), known to be a Jat-supported party, has been in continuous decline, and its vote share has come down to 5 per cent. (3) The space for smaller parties and Independents has been shrinking fast. These small players used to have around 30 per cent of the votes, which has reduced to 16 per cent in this election. However, there are a significant number of Independents whose votes were more than the margin of victory.

With the final numbers showing bipolarity, it is important to look into the reasons behind it.

Also Read | How did the BJP pull off an unexpected win in Haryana?

The central narrative of this election revolves around “kisan [farmer], naujawan [youth], pehelwan [wrestler]”. The farmers’ movement organised one of the biggest protests during the NDA’s second term. The protests, in which 700 farmers lost their lives, led the Narendra Modi government to take back the “three farm laws” through which the government intended to bring reform. Farmers of Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh were key to leading this movement, and in the case of Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, the Jat community participated in a big manner.

As many as 33 per cent of Haryana’s farmers fall under the medium or large category with more than 2 hectares of land. Among them, Jats form the majority. In Sonipat, Devender (35, Dhanak [Lower SC]) and Amit (38, Lohar [Lower OBC]), both auto drivers, said that in their villages, they (the Lower SC and Lower OBC communities) did not have much land of their own and that they worked on the land of Jats. In towns, they said, they were independent, but in rural areas, they had to be economically dependent on Jats. Sometimes the Jats exploited them. “Vo Chaudhary hai aur unki hi chalti hai” (which roughly means, “The writ of the landlords always holds”).

Lack of job opportunities

Among the youth, the main reason for unhappiness against the incumbent government was the lack of job opportunities. Again, this issue is not unique to Haryana. Data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) relating to 2023 (https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/chandigarh/haryana-tops-cmie-unemployment-chart-december-8359324/)indicate that Haryana had the highest unemployment rate in India, exceeding 30 per cent. This built a narrative that the State government was unable to generate/create job opportunities for youths.

The pehelwan movement began last year against the issue of sexual harassment of women wrestlers by the authorities. As a result of this, Brij Bhushan Singh, who was a BJP MP, did not get the ticket in the 2024 parliamentary election.

The“kisan, naujawan, pehelwan” narrative seemed to suggest that a new segment was aligning itself with the Congress. However, it is significant to note that both farmers and wrestlers are essentially representatives of the Jat community. Additionally, a significant proportion of the youth demographic also belongs to this same community. This alignment highlights how the Congress’ appeal was primarily concentrated within specific social groups, rather than genuinely expanding beyond the party’s traditional constituents.

On the other side, BJP leaders used the campaign slogan that during their government, youth had got jobs “bina kharchi, bina parchi” (without paying a bribe and without expecting favouritism).

A notable example of this sentiment emerged during our ground visit in Haryana when a member of the Nai community named Vinod (40) in Panipat told us that one of his brothers got a job in the Haryana Police without spending a paisa. He said it was not possible in the Bhupinder Singh Hooda government. He remarked that during the Hooda government, when they asked for assistance, they were often told: “You can set up a chair anywhere and cut hair, but what will our Jat boys do?”

The example of Lower SCs and OBCs illustrates the growing rift between the backward and Dalit communities and the Jat community, which has directly benefited the BJP. This can be understood from a data point that shows the changing support base of the BJP and the Congress in the Jat belt since 2009. Bhiwani, Charkhi Dadri, Hisar, Jhajjar, Jind, Panipat, Rohtak, and Sonipat districts have a high concentration of Jats. In these districts, the aggregate share of Balmiki and Dhanak is 41 per cent (Census 2011) of the total SC population.

Chart 2 suggests that the Congress’ support base has come to the point where the party was in 2009, and that its support base has returned in the Assembly election. However, it needs to be noted that the Congress party’s highest vote share was in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, at 51 per cent. The BJP was 7 per cent behind the Congress in the Jat belt. It suggests that despite the kisan, naujawan, and pehelwan movements, the Congress lost its ground in the Jat belt.

Congress’ failure to retain non-Jat votes

Any analysis of the Haryana election will show that the lion’s share of Jats voted for the Congress, but the party failed to retain its support among the non-Jats, thereby losing a significant share (12 per cent, double the State-wise loss) of votes in the Jat belt. Contrary to this, the BJP has been able to mobilise its core support, primarily from the OBC and non-Jat privileged-caste Hindus, which is more evenly distributed. This allowed its vote share to translate more efficiently into Assembly seats. This homogeneous distribution of the BJP’s voter base gave it a strategic advantage, resulting in a higher conversion rate of votes to seats compared with the Congress. Of the 36 seats in the Jat belt, the BJP won 20, while the Congress could manage only 13.

Two decades ago in Haryana, the Congress had leaders such as Bansi Lal from the Vishnoe (Bishnoi) community; Rao Inderjit Singh and Captain Ajay Singh Yadav from among the Ahir community; Bhupinder Hooda, Chaudhary Birender Singh, and Kiran Choudhry from the Jat community; and Kumari Selja and Ashok Tanwar from the SC community—all of whom had a say in party affairs, but this time it was Hooda who dominated.

Also Read | Vinesh Phogat and the Julana dangal

The different movements and the one-sided dominance of Hooda created the buzz that if the Congress government came to power, it would be a Jat dominance (Jatshahi), which reminded the lower sections of society about the exploitation and dominance they had faced in the past. As Vinod (Panipat) said: “Abhi to hamse 10 rupaye lete hai,lekin ye satta me aa gaye to 100 rupaye lene lagenge, aur hame dena padega” (Right now, the auto drivers near Panipat bus stand charge us Rs.10, but if they come to power, we will be forced to pay Rs.100).

It is not that only Jats supported the Congress this time; other castes did too. But the majority of the party’s votes came from Jats, Jatavs (Upper SC), and Muslims. Together, they constitute around 40 per cent of the electorate. On the other hand, the BJP has been using social engineering since 2014 to form a coalition of non-dominant castes. In States such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, and Haryana the BJP did its best to build an ethnic coalition of politically marginalised communities.

The BJP also made a smart move on the Supreme Court’s August verdict on sub-categorisation for SCs and ST. In Haryana, SC voters account for 21 per cent of the electorate, with around 12 per cent belonging to the most vulnerable and deprived sections of the SC community, such as Balmiki and Dhanak. Ahead of the election, when the Supreme Court allowed the subclassification of SCs and STs, to create separate quotas within these groups, the BJP astutely embraced the decision at the State level.

In the previous general election, the Dalit community had largely supported the Congress because Rahul Gandhi’s “Save the Constitution” narrative had resonated strongly among them. However, when the issue of subclassification emerged with the Supreme Court’s decision, the Congress chose to remain silent. This silence cost the party dearly, as the most marginalised sections of the Dalit community felt neglected and abandoned.

As a result, these most vulnerable groups, which had earlier backed the Congress, shifted support away from the party, giving the BJP a crucial advantage. The BJP’s ability to address the specific needs of this deprived segment helped it consolidate support and gain momentum in key constituencies where the Congress had previously held sway.

The BJP adopted a mixed strategy to mitigate the impact of anti-incumbency. Prime Minister Modi’s rallies were reduced, and fewer posters featuring him were displayed at the local level. At the State level, several key Ministers, including the Chief Minister, were replaced with new faces before the election. The BJP fielded new candidates in 61 of the 90 constituencies, compared with 2019. This move sent a message to voters that their grievances were being heard and that the party cared about their concerns. And the BJP won 34 of the 61 Assembly seats. In contrast, during the 2019 Assembly election, the BJP won only 18 seats of the same 61 constituencies. Thus, the BJP effectively neutralised the effects of anti-incumbency.

This victory reflects the BJP’s successful narrative to build an ethnic coalition against the politics of dominance of a particular caste. What the Congress needs to do is not to leave its social base but to add some new constituencies to its kitty.

Ashish Ranjan is an election researcher and co-founder of the Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies (DALES). Atul Kumar Pandey is an election researcher.

The BJP coasted towards a hat-trick win with its biggest tally in Haryana and the National Conference (NC)-Congress combine was set to form the government in Jammu and Kashmir, voters in both places giving the victors a decisive edge as counting day progressed with many a surprise on October 8.

One State, one Union Territory, and three main stakeholders. Bucking exit poll predictions and pollsters in the first elections after the June 2024 Lok Sabha verdict, the results threw up a mixed bag for the BJP, sobering lessons for the Congress but clear-cut unambiguous victory for the NC, which led the alliance to power in Jammu and Kashmir.

With wins or leads in 48 of the 90 seats, according to the Election Commission website, Haryana’s ruling BJP readied for a third consecutive term—after early morning trends showed it trailing behind the Congress. However, trends showed the saffron party ahead or winning only in 29 of 90 seats in Jammu and Kashmir.

If the results were a timely boost for the BJP ahead of the election in Maharashtra later this year, they were a massive downer for the Congress, hoping to consolidate its gains from the Lok Sabha verdict and had begun the morning with enthusiastic leaders distributing sweets.

Battling discord in its top leadership in Haryana, where it was expecting to come to power, the Congress had won or was leading in 36 seats in the State, five more than it got last time but far below the 46 needed to form the government. In Jammu and Kashmir, the party piggybacked on the NC to come to power but was ahead only in six of the 32 seats it contested.

Haryana: Writing on the wall

The party raised with the Election Commission the issue of an “unexplained slowdown” in updating results of the Haryana election and urged it to direct officials to update accurate figures so “false news and malicious narratives” can be countered immediately.

But the writing on the wall was loud and clear. As the vote count in Haryana oscillated between the ruling and the opposition parties with the morning hours delivering a nail-biter, the vote share was also tantalisingly close. Three hours after counting began at 8 am, the BJP was at 38.7 per cent and the Congress a little more at 40.5 per cent. By 3.45 pm, the Congress was down to 39.05 per cent and the BJP had inched ahead at 39.89.

“The Congress will get a majority. Congress will form government in Haryana,” veteran Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda told reporters in Rohtak earlier in the morning. Kumari Selja, his party colleague and a rival for the chief ministerial post had the Congress won Haryana, was also sure her party would emerge victorious. “Hold your horses. Congress will form a government with overwhelming majority,” she said. After that though, the party was mostly silent.

Among the party’s high profile winners was Vinesh Phogat, the wrestler-turned-politician who broke a million hearts when she lost out on her Olympic medals. She won the Julana seat by 6,015 votes. However, hers was also a seesaw battle for much of the day.

Also Read | Haryana: Caste as the swing factor

The BJP, which had 41 seats in the outgoing assembly, was triumphant with its largest tally till date. “I am confident of forming the government for a third time in Haryana. In less than 45 minutes, Ashok Tanwar joined Rahul Gandhi from the BJP rally… that shows the quality of infrastructure and roads the BJP government developed,” outgoing Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini said, tongue firmly in cheek as he took a swipe at his former party colleague Tanwar.

With the BJP set to form power, party leader Anil Vij also threw his hat into the ring. “In our party, individuals do not announce these things. Earlier, I had only made it clear that I am not averse to it [being named Chief Minister]. The decision will be taken by the high command,” Vij, who was set to win from Ambala Cantt after trailing in the morning, said.

Interestingly, the numbers in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir almost mirrored each other: both 90-member assemblies, the BJP winning or leading in the former with 48 seats and the NC-Congress-CPI(M) firmly ahead in the latter with a similar number (49).

Jammu and Kashmir: Clear victory for NC-led combine

The NC scored big in Jammu and Kashmir, where the Assembly election is being held for the first time since Article 370 of the Constitution was abrogated and the State bifurcated into two Union Territories. It won 41 seats (leading in one more seat) of the 51 it contested while its “junior partner” Congress bagged six of the 32 it fought. The BJP was leading in 29 seats, Independents in seven, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in four. Among those who lost her election was PDP’s Iltija Mufti, daughter of party president Mehbooba Mufti.

“I accept the verdict of the people. The love & affection I received from everyone in Bijbehara will always stay with me. Gratitude to my PDP workers who worked so hard throughout this campaign,” Iltija Mufti posted on X.

BJP candidate Devender Rana won from the Nagrota segment with the highest margin in the Assembly election. Rana, who had won in the 2014 Assembly election on the NC ticket, retained the Nagrota seat on the BJP ticket by a margin of 30,472 votes. His nearest rival, NC’s Joginder Singh, got 17,641 votes.

AICC general secretary Ghulam Ahmad Mir also won big with a margin of 29,728 votes, closely followed by Rana’s fellow NC defector to the BJP, Surjit Singh Slathia, who won by a margin of 29,481 votes from the Samba seat. Also among the prominent winners was CPI(M) leader M.Y. Tarigami, who won from Kulgam for the fifth time by defeating the former head of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), Sayar Ahmad Reshi, by over 7,800 votes. The AAP also opened its account in Jammu and Kashmir, with its candidate Mehraj Malik emerging victor in Doda by polling 23,228 votes against the BJP candidate Gajay Singh Rana’s 18,690 votes.

Baramulla MP Sheikh Abdul “Engineer” Rashid, who had made headlines after defeating NC’s Omar Abdullah earlier this year in the Lok Sabha election, however failed to make an impact, with his Awami Ittehad Party bagging just one seat in Langate, where his brother Khursheed Ahmad Sheikh won by a margin of over 1,600 votes.

The day, however, belonged to NC leader Omar Abdullah, who won from both Budgam and Ganderbal seats in the Valley he contested.

Ready for a second stint as Chief Minister—he was last Chief Minister from 2009-14—he told reporters that efforts had been underway to finish his party. “But those who wanted to finish us have been wiped out. Our responsibilities have increased,” he said. As the party readied for power along with the Congress, his father, NC president Farooq Abdullah, said categorically: “Omar Abdullah will be the chief minister.” The NC president also said the verdict was proof that the people of Jammu and Kashmir were against the abrogation of Article 370.

Also Read | Jammu and Kashmir: The battle that lies beyond elections

“The people have given their verdict and proven that the decisions taken on August 5, 2019, are not acceptable to them,” he said. “I am thankful to everyone that the people participated in the polls and did so freely. I am grateful to God for the results.”

Farooq Abdullah said the elected government would have to do a lot of work to end the “sufferings” of the people. “We have to end unemployment and address issues like inflation and drug menace. Now, there will be no LG and his advisors. Now, there will be 90 MLAs who will work for people,” he said.

(with inputs from agencies)