Engineer Rashid – TheNewsHub

Kashmir’s split verdict: Democracy or division?

Aseem — Tue, 15 Oct 2024 05:27:08 +0000

After a decade, Jammu and Kashmir has elected its representatives for the legislative Assembly. The Union Territory’s people have given a historic mandate to the National Conference (NC)-Congress-CPI(M) alliance, with 49 of the 90 Assembly seats. The last time any party or pre-election bloc crossed the majority mark was in the 1996 Assembly election.

In 1996, the NC bagged 54 (if we exclude Leh-Ladakh and Kargil region) of 83 Assembly seats. Since then, the highest number of seats won by any party has been 28.

This time, the NC alone won 42 seats. The BJP with 29 seats occupies the position of the main opposition party in the House. In a remarkable feat, the BJP bagged the second-highest number of seats for the second time, the first being in 2014. In 2014, the BJP won 30 seats (after accounting for the conversion of seats based on the delimitation in 2022). The biggest loser in this election is Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). It won 29 seats in 2014 but was reduced to just 3 seats this time. The PDP lost 14 per cent of the votes (see Table 2) as well, compared with the previous Assembly election.

Also Read | Statehood not a gift for BJP or government to give: Omar Abdullah

The mandate looks like a huge, consolidated victory in terms of seats won by the parties and alliances, but a deep dive into the data reveals many variations. At the aggregate level, the result suggests that the NC alliance received overwhelming support from the people and won the majority, but at the vote-share level, the alliance received 36 per cent or a little over one-third of the total votes only, which is 3 per cent less than the parties’ combined vote share in 2014. However, it is the Congress’ loss of votes that has led to the drop in the alliance’s vote share. The Congress contested the 2014 election without tying up with the NC and received 17 per cent of the votes, but this time the party received just 12 per cent. The NC gained a 2 per cent vote share.

PDP president Mehbooba Mufti.
| Photo Credit:
PTI

Apart from the major parties, Independents (including the Jamaat-e-Islami and Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party [AIP]) received 17 per cent of the votes, 10 per cent more than in 2014. The other small parties, including the Peoples Conference (PC) and the Bahujan Samaj Party, received 13 per cent of the votes, 5 per cent more than in the previous election (see Table 2).

The region-wise results make it clear that Jammu and the Valley stand for two very distinct support bases. The BJP won all its seats in the Jammu region (29 of 43) with a 45 per cent vote share. In the Valley, it drew a blank. The NC-led alliance won 41 of the 47 seats in the Valley with a 42 per cent vote share. The NC alone won 35 seats, 24 more than in the previous election. These two numbers clearly show that the Jammu and Kashmir regions have given a split verdict to the two main parties/alliances.

The two regions of Jammu and the Kashmir Valley have three subregions each; the Valley being divided into Central, North, and South, and Jammu into the Chenab Valley, Jammu, and Pir Panjal subregions. The deeper we analyse the data along these lines, the more we notice significant variations in the outcomes at the subregional level.

Peoples Conference (PC) chief Sajad Lone.
| Photo Credit:
PTI

In the Valley, the NC and the PDP used to be the main contenders. However, for the past few years, the PDP has been a declining force here. The party that bagged 26 of the 47 seats in the Valley in 2014 could manage to win only 3 this time. Its decline was visible even in the Lok Sabha election earlier this year. The PDP was once not just an electoral opponent of the NC in the Valley region, it was also an ideological challenger. However, the party’s support base dwindled after it allied with the BJP in 2015.

In the Lok Sabha election this year, a new political force emerged. Engineer Rashid won the Baramulla seat, defeating two stalwarts: Omar Abdullah and Sajad Lone (PC). Rashid’s victory created a buzz because he won from jail, with his son campaigning for him. It seemed to indicate that the people of the Valley were not happy with the two established parties and thought Rashid would better represent their voice. However, the Assembly election did not reflect this trend. While Rashid had leads in 14 of the 18 Assembly segments in the Lok Sabha election, his AIP could not even open its account in the Assembly election. The AIP and its alliance partner, the Jamaat-e-Islami, received just about 2 per cent of the votes. The Jamaat, contesting an election after 35 years, had hoped to benefit from the influence it had in South Kashmir, but all it could manage was a little over 5 per cent of the total vote share of South Kashmir.

NC alliance and BJP: Competing Narratives

Similarly, the AIP, which was expected to do well in the Kashmir region, performed poorly. It received just 3 per cent of the votes in Central and South Kashmir.

Member of Parliament and Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) chief Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly known as Engineer Rashid, addresses a press conference ahead of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election, in Srinagar, on September 12, 2024.
| Photo Credit:
PTI

The overall outcome suggests that the NC has regained its pre-eminent position after a long time. While the PDP was decimated and the AIP failed to win voters over, the NC succeeded in convincing the Valley’s electorate that it was the only party that could form a stable and strong government and bargain with the Central government for statehood and the other privileges lost in August 2019. Whether the NC alliance will succeed or not, only time will tell.

Highlights

The National Conference (NC)-Congress-CPI(M) alliance won 49 out of 90 Assembly seats, marking the first time since 1996 that any party or pre-election bloc has crossed the majority mark.
There’s a clear split between the Kashmir Valley and the Jammu region. The NC-led alliance dominated in the Valley, winning 41 of 47 seats with a 42 per cent vote share. In contrast, the BJP won all its 29 seats in the Jammu region with a 45 per cent vote share, but drew a blank in the Valley.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) faced a significant setback, dropping from 29 seats in 2014 to just 3 seats this time. New political forces like the Awami Ittehad Party failed to make a significant impact despite earlier promise.

In Jammu’s three subregions, which are based on geographical variation—Jammu in the plains, and Chenab and Pir Panjal in the mountains—the Congress used to have a lot of influence. However, the BJP broke this trend in 2014 with the Congress’ huge electoral base shifting loyalties. In the 2014 Assembly election, the BJP won 25 of the 37 seats (before the 2022 delimitation of the State) in this region. After the delimitation exercise, the total number of seats in the Jammu region went up to 43, and of these the BJP was in the lead in 30 (the seat conversion exercise was carried out by the Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies [DALES] team after identifying and matching polling booth data).

Also Read | Kashmir’s guarded optimism

In this election, the BJP won 29 Assembly seats: 22 in Jammu, 6 in Chenab, and 1 in Pir Panjal. In terms of vote share, both in Chenab and Pir Panjal, the BJP received around one-third of the total vote share (see Table 4). However, in the Jammu subregion, which has the highest number of Assembly seats (24), the BJP received the lion’s share (54 per cent).

The NC alliance managed to receive just one-fourth of the total votes in the Jammu subregion. The PDP received 0.38 per cent votes—the party had 5 per cent in the Jammu subregion in the 2014 Assembly election. In Chenab and Pir Panjal, the NC alliance had an edge over the BJP.

The regional-level analysis clearly suggests that the Union Territory’s two different regions have also expressed two distinct electoral choices. The NC has emerged strong in the Valley, whereas Jammu, where the BJP has been growing continuously, clearly favours the national party. How this will impact administrative decisions in the days to come is the critical question now.

Ashish Ranjan is an election researcher and co-founder of Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies.

If I am a BJP man, then why did BJP put me in jail? Engineer Rashid

Aseem — Sun, 06 Oct 2024 13:43:44 +0000

Jammu and Kashmir held its first Assembly election in 10 years, a significant event following the region’s loss of special status under Article 370 and statehood on August 5, 2019. While numerous political leaders contested the election, the entry of Sheikh Abdul “Engineer” Rashid, founder of Awami Ittehad Party and Lok Sabha MP from Baramulla, drew particular attention. Recently released from Delhi’s Tihar jail (from where he contested the Lok Sabha election and won, defeating National Conference’s Omar Abdullah), Rashid’s campaign rallies attracted large crowds, though opposition leaders from the NC and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) accused him of being a BJP proxy. Ahead of the October 8 results, Engineer Rashid spoke to Frontline in an exclusive interview. Excerpts:

Last month when you were released from Tihar jail after a gap of five years and the next day you reached Srinagar. What differences did you see? How has Jammu and Kashmir changed during these five years?

People were scared. They were afraid of talking. That’s why the slogan “Dilon se nikla darr aaya aaya Engineer” (Fear in the hearts of the people has vanished; “Engineer” has arrived). There was a political vacuum. The political parties had been lying to them, exploiting their sentiments for votes, and people were confused.

You have been actively campaigning for your candidates everywhere, but do you really believe that change is possible in Jammu and Kashmir, given that it is now a Union Territory, which means the Assembly will be powerless and the recent amendments to the transaction of business rules have further expanded the powers of the Lieutenant Governor?

The Assembly may do nothing. But the point is, if you get credible voices who are sincere and who can fight politically, that should be the focus of the new MLAs who will win. So what we need is political leadership, be it MP[s], MLA[s] or whosoever, who are sincere voices. They need to come out and speak against what the L-G or what the Central government is doing. They need to launch political movements. That’s what I was expecting. That people will vote for us so that we can get a voice and we can take the battle to the Centre.

Also, elections this time were conducted smoothly. We did not see election boycotts. We did not see any kind of violence. Political leaders were able to reach out to those areas which were previously militant hotbeds. Who would you give credit to for all this?

First, let me tell you that Kashmiris are not fond of violence. They don’t do violence because it is their hobby. Whatsoever had happened, it had certain reasoning in the past, and whatsoever is there today, it too has reasoning. And when you talk about that there was no misuse of state machinery, I disagree with you. My candidate from Baramulla, Shoaib Lone, I had to campaign for him. We had all the permissions, but on the last day, our permission was cancelled without any reason. The police in north Kashmir didn’t provide a level playing field. The agencies are always there. The BJP and its proxies use their people to suppress legitimate voices.

Also Read | Jammu and Kashmir: The battle that lies beyond elections

But BJP leaders have been saying that they have created this kind of situation wherein the other regional political leaders are able to campaign.

What has the BJP created? There is a complete silence of [the] graveyard. People have been suppressed. What are they telling you? Then they should form the government on their own. Nothing like that is the situation. If you have snatched everything from Kashmiris, how can they be happy now? But if you silence people with the barrel of a gun then that is a separate thing.

Leaders from opposition parties, including the NC and the PDP, have alleged that Engineer Rashid is close to the BJP and is a proxy of the party.

I don’t give a damn to them, and I also request you not to ask these questions. I have been in jail, and you ask me these questions? Have some mercy on me. You should know… I understand that as a journalist, you are free to ask anything, but does this question suit [this situation]?

Your opposition parties have been saying all this about you.

Let them go to hell! If they say I have four eyes, will you tell me that I have four eyes? They are making allegations, and [I’m] going to jail after three days. Shame on this question and shame on them.

While I was covering the election campaign, I felt there was a sentiment among the people that Engineer Rashid is hand in glove with the BJP.

[People] will decide what to do. It is absolutely rubbish asking such a question. A man who is going [to] jail after three or four days, you are [still] asking [if] I am their agent. And those who are celebrating in their cosy rooms, for you they are heroes, and for them, they are heroes. Let people vote for them or vote for me. I have no issues, but my conscience is clear. I am answerable to my conscience, to my people, to my [commitment].

This question was also posed to them, but they are saying that the timing of your release was suspicious.

I don’t want to respond to them. Who is Omar Abdullah, a traitor? Son of a traitor, his father, his grandfather had destroyed Kashmir. Who is Mehbooba Mufti? Who brought the BJP here?

How would you answer about the timing of your release?

So are you the judge? Are they the judge? [Arvind] Kejriwal was given [bail] for elections. I had specified the reason that I am going to contest the election and I will [seek bail]. So bail is given only when you have to do something special. So [the] court agreed, the same way it [gave bail to] Kejriwal. So what is special in it? It should not be a question.

Common people on the ground argue that if your goals and electoral outcomes align with those of the PDP, the NC, and the Congress in keeping the BJP out of power, why has not Engineer Rashid’s party joined the INDIA bloc?

I will put a counter question to you as a journalist: During these five and a half years, did they ever take any concrete steps? Show me one step. Any public strike, any protests, anything else? They were sitting in their drawing rooms enjoying things. Today they are talking only because they have to get power. Nothing beyond that. It was only Engineer Rashid who was victimised. Only because I am speaking sincerely. I am [genuine]. Their words have no [weight]. They have the money, power, muscle power. That’s why they are getting votes. Nothing beyond that. People know who stands for what. See PDP leaders were saying that we are going to fight for common goal but then they launched BJP in Kashmir. So what’s the common goal? They have already got Kashmiris destroyed.

So what about the INDIA bloc? Will you consider joining the alliance?

What INDIA bloc? Will Rahul Gandhi give back Article 370? You go and ask. If Rahul says so, I will vote for him.

If any of your candidates win, which party would you consider aligning with?

For me, neither is [it] a question [of] how many seats I win nor [with] whom I will go. I will go with my conscience. And the main thing is that for me, government formation is absolutely not an issue. I have said it right from the day when I got out of jail .For me, the issue is to use this mandate the people will give me, be it the number of seats or the percentage of votes. I will utilise it to make New Delhi and other stakeholders realise that, for God’s sake, allow Kashmiris to live with dignity and honour.

“If I’m a BJP man then why [did] they put me in [jail]?”

Given that your party includes both new and less widely known faces, do you think your party would struggle if your bail were revoked and you were taken back to jail?

Why would it struggle? We are an ideological party. We are not like others, only after power and perks and privileges. I am sure the party will emerge even stronger if I go to jail because then people will come to know who was the BJP’s agent.

A lot of people, including your critics, argue that suppose if Engineer Rashid wins 10 seats, ultimately the Centre or the BJP might create a pressure cooker situation, and you might be forced to align with the BJP. They have given an example of the PDP, where 18 of its leaders left after 2019.

This Engineer is not PDP. I am again and again and again telling you the same thing: they don’t come out of their comfort zones. [If they] had the courage and the [guts] and the commitment and were sincere, then Modi would have never dared to abrogate Article 370. They don’t mean what they say. If they meant it, then they would have been in jail. They are already with them. And when you talk about pressure cooker, that’s already with me. My election symbol has been a pressure cooker, so Modi can do nothing, nor can the BJP, and I know my people.

So you are confident that your candidates are going to win this election?

Why not? People supported me even when I was in jail and I got elected in the parliamentary elections. Even this question is an insult to the voters and my party.

Awami Ittehad Party chief and Baramulla MP Engineer Rashid addresses an election campaign in support of his brother and party candidate from Langate constituency, Khurshid Ahmad Sheikh, for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election, in Langate on September 24.
| Photo Credit:
Mohammad Amin War/ANI

Talking about dynastic politics, you have been saying all over your career that you are against the National Conference and PDP for their dynastic politics. But now, your brother contested from Langate constituency, and you are actively campaigning for him. Also, your son has been actively part of the election campaigning.

The first thing is, show me even just one statement where I have criticised dynastic politics. I didn’t respond to these questions during my campaign because I had no time. Let anybody show one statement where I have criticised dynasty politics. Yes, I have said that the Sheikh dynasty and Mufti dynasty have destroyed Kashmir. That is in a separate context. I mean that when they ruled [the] State, had they run it in a better way, we would have appreciated them. Dynastic politics is fine.

So, coming to your point, if politics is good, then why shouldn’t people from dynasties join politics? If politics is public service, why shouldn’t anybody join politics? When my brother joined politics, I was in jail. I had no idea. It’s people who decided to put him in the race. I had nothing to do with that. Having said that, is there anyone better than him among the candidates? Tell me, for God’s sake, and let people decide. He is a man who was travelling from Langate to Tihar jail every three months. He is a man who struggled so hard for me. Nobody even gave a damn.

And then you talked about my son. What has he done wrong? He’s not in politics. If he is campaigning like other party candidates, what’s wrong with that? He’s not directly into politics. If he hadn’t been campaigning for the AIP candidates, then the allegation would have been that he campaigned for his father but not for the AIP candidates. So he is not in politics. He is back to school, back to studies. And I am sure he has a lot of things to do other than politics.

Your party, the AIP, had a pre-election alliance with the banned Jamaat-e-Islami in South Kashmir. Are we seeing a new political front in the Valley?

I am sure with the passage of time, things will evolve. Let us hope so. It will be an alliance based on principles. Let us wait till October 8.

After you won the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat from jail, there seems to be a trend of imprisoned individuals trying to contest elections to secure their release. Do you believe that public sympathy votes can help candidates win elections, and how do you view this situation?

Jail is a weapon in your hand and if you use it at least you can convey the message on a larger scale. That’s all. Then let people decide.

In your recent election speech in Tral, you stated that you are the voice of the imprisoned. However, why did you decline the request from famous jailed cleric Sarjan Barakati’s daughter, who wanted her father to contest from the Langate constituency?

I have answered this question. She should have come and met me. She should have sent [an envoy]. In fact, I sent her my people saying that I want to support you but she didn’t respond. I don’t know who she was playing for. I’m sorry to say. Tell me, what is Barkati’s vision? I didn’t react to this question when I was campaigning. What does Barkati want? He is the man who was saying “Azadi, Azadi ”. That’s good. I have no issue with that. I just ask him, if he becomes an MLA, will he go in the assembly with the same slogans?

You just show me the roadmap on which Sarjan Barkati was contesting elections. Is there any manifesto? Being in jail is a pretty small thing. Be it Engineer Rashid or anyone. But you made a very valid question. Firstly, Barakati’s daughter filed nomination papers from Zainpora but the papers were rejected. The same was done with my candidate. Also, his papers were rejected in Zainpora. He would have certainly been a victorious candidate. Then Barkati contested from two seats—Ganderbal and Budgam. One candidate can at most contest from two seats. After five days, when her nomination papers were found correct, how could he have contested from Langate?

But it is a choice of any candidate to contest from anywhere?

Sir, please. For God’s sake. If already the nomination papers were found correct at two places, how could they have contested from a third place?

Maybe there could have been some errors in nomination papers.

What are you saying? How could there be errors when the deadline for filing nomination papers was over?

Then how do you see this?

It was a conspiracy against Engineer Rashid. And who was with her? Three to four people. I have respect for that family. And remember, I have been to that family. In 2017 when Barkati was arrested, I visited them. I was the only one. Today I don’t need certification from anyone. And neither Engineer Rashid nor Sarjan Barkati are the only people who are in jail. I have already been elected. My agenda was already known. I have not deviated.

So what was his agenda? Who was with him? Apni Party supported him. When Barkati’s daughter came to our house, she entered our kitchen. My sister-in-law was the only person present there. And she gave her a form. A so-called journalist was waiting outside. It was all arranged by unknown hands. Then she said to ask Engineer Sahib to take my form. Is this the way? At least have some pity on me. A lady goes to my house 200 km away from her native place when already her father is contesting from two places. Then she enters my kitchen, gets a camera, and then says to let Engineer Rashid support me. Am I a street vendor?

I am running a political party. There are procedures. Has anybody approached me? And I wonder more about her and the journalist who wants sensational news and who [wants to mislead] people. I want to ask you a question. Have you asked her if she met me? Did she meet any member of my party? Can she even name a single person from my party whom she met? She just wanted to create a hullabaloo and nothing more. She wanted to create this scene but people will understand.

Also Read | The fundamental demand is the restoration of Statehood: Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami

If you are saying that Barkati don’t have any manifesto or a clear agenda and there is a shift in his ideology then what about the banned Jamaat-e-Islami, who is your pre-election alliance partner in south Kashmir? They have also changed their ideology. For example, they also had been endorsing election [boycott] calls during the past three decades and are now contesting the election.

Very valid question. You have answered even [the] previous question by asking this question. When Jamaat candidates [filed nominations] as independent candidates, a statement came from Jamaat. You might have read that they might support [Engineer Rashid in some] constituencies where they don’t contest, if he desires. So I responded politely. I met [them], I met their leaders and we agreed on three points. Number one—and in fact, we had issued a statement also. I don’t know if you have read it or not. Three points. There was a consensus. So this is what they stated. What was Jamaat’s agenda? Number one was [no] to violence, all sorts of violence. [Non-state actors] should stop violence. Second was that a dignified resolution of Kashmir needs a political struggle, a peaceful political struggle. Third was that until that stage, let us give people good representatives. These were the three things which we agreed to and what else can I say.

Do you believe your party candidates can achieve similar success in the Assembly election as you did in the Lok Sabha election?

See, there were many factors. First, I couldn’t get bail in proper time. There were [issues with] the nomination papers, security, everything. For the first two phases it was [worse]. There were just three days left for the last phase, and another two days left when I reached there. It was [difficult] to select the candidates. Then I couldn’t get proper time. But still, I am sure that AIP would emerge as a very strong force, and a very credible force. And we will be stronger. And see, I’m sure of that. At least the votes [that] AIP will get… I’m sure we’ll get [a] good number of seats also. But [don’t] forget that we are [contesting] 33 seats. Just wait for the [results] day and see how [many] votes AIP gets.

Suppose if your bail is not further extended what will be your roadmap and who will run the party affairs?

Our AIP will run the party affairs.

And what will be the roadmap?

What sort of question is this? The roadmap is… What roadmap? You go and ask Farooq Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti. I am in jail and automatically I am the roadmap. Listen to me. I am fighting for my political identity. That’s why I am [in jail] and you are asking me about the roadmap. For one who is fighting for the rights of people, what is the roadmap? The roadmap is if I [surrender] to Modi ji then there are no issues.

The reason I am asking this question is that when you became a Lok Sabha MP from Baramulla, a lot of your opposition leaders said that Baramulla will face problems with regards to development because Engineer is in jail.

So the opposition leaders are contradicting their own statements. First, they say that I have close ties with the BJP. If I am a BJP man then why did BJP put me in jail? Why did they not allow me to go and work on the ground? So, I don’t want to lower my stature nor disrespect my sacrifices. And for God’s sake, if they can’t agree with me, let them not spread rumours in the air.

Irfan Amin Malik is a journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir.

Is Engineer Rashid’s release a game-changer in the Kashmir election?

Aseem — Thu, 19 Sep 2024 12:27:46 +0000

Despite allegations that he is a “proxy” of the BJP, Sheikh Abdul “Engineer” Rashid—with his “shared victimhood” narrative—seems to have struck a chord with a section of the electorate in Kashmir, much to the chagrin of established parties.

“This naya Kashmir is a Kashmir of atrocities, killings, and torture…” said Engineer Rashid at a rally in North Kashmir’s small town of Delina on September 12.

His statement resonated deeply among a few thousand people who had gathered in Delina to hear and catch a glimpse of the parliamentarian speak at his first rally since being released from Tihar Jail. Among them was 29-year-old Waseem Ahmed from Malangam village in Bandipora district, who had travelled over 31 km to attend the event.

“Every Kashmiri feels this but is too afraid to speak up,” Ahmed said, referring to Rashid’s criticism of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s vision of “Naya Kashmir”, which the saffron party claims is a new golden era for Jammu and Kashmir since the revocation of the erstwhile State’s special status. “Only Rashid truly understands the suffering of ordinary Kashmiris because he has endured it himself.”

Rashid, who was arrested in the run-up to the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 and charged under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) that accused him of funding separatist activities in Jammu and Kashmir, was addressing his first rally following his interim bail from a Delhi court to campaign for the ongoing Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election.

Following his release, Rashid did not pull his punches. He called for resolution of the Kashmir issue, highlighted the plight of Kashmiri prisoners needing medical attention, and repeatedly vowed to fight for the restoration of Article 370.

Also Read | Engineer Rashid’s defiant victory a turning point for Kashmir’s democratic future

“Unlike other leaders, only Rashid has the will to fight Modi,” Ahmed told Frontline in Delina. “When other leaders came out of captivity [after Article 370 was revoked], they acted like nothing had changed. People heard their cries for power, not for Kashmir’s suffering.”

Others at the rally shared similar sentiments. Mohammed Nazim Bhat, a 32-year-old salesman from Azad Gunj in Baramulla, attended the rally despite his family’s support for the National Conference (NC). “My family has long supported the NC,” Bhat said. “But since 2019, Rashid has suffered far more than the entire NC. Why shouldn’t I support someone who truly understands my pain?”

Disruptor or ‘proxy’?

However, besides highlighting distinct perspectives, Rashid’s release has also introduced a fresh dynamic to Kashmir’s politics, making him appear more disruptive. While mainstream parties in Kashmir are trying to capitalise on the anger against New Delhi for its actions since August 5, 2019, many political observers believe Rashid resonates with the deep-seated humiliation felt by ordinary Kashmiris who find his return as a revival of resilient politics, filling a void left by Delhi that even the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) could not address. This shift could significantly affect the political landscape by drawing votes away from established regional parties and altering expected election outcomes.

Even though Rashid won the Lok Sabha election by outmanoeuvring heavyweights like former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and People’s Conference chief Sajad Lone with a margin of over 4 lakh votes, his party, the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), appeared to lose momentum after the victory.

Several AIP leaders resigned after the party chose to field new candidates in several Assembly segments instead of loyalists. However, Rashid’s bail has somewhat revived his party’s fortunes, although it has also brought with it accusations of being a “proxy”. Since his release, Omar Abdullah, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) president Mehbooba Mufti, and Sajad Lone have labelled Rashid as yet another addition to the BJP’s list of proxies in Kashmir.

“As a two-time legislator from the Langate Assembly seat, Engineer Rashid has a history of boldly confronting Delhi and State governments on the issue of Kashmir. While many might have changed during five years of imprisonment, Rashid stands out as an exception.”

“PDP’s youth leader Waheed [Parra] was given bail in a UAPA case by the same court, Farooq Abdullah was given a clean chit in a scam case by the court, and Lone’s brother is with Hurriyat while he himself is with BJP,” AIP leader and Rashid’s brother Sheikh Khursheed told Frontline. “But, these parties have an issue with Rashid’s bail. This shows AIP and Rashid have both unnerved them.”

The allegations against Rashid may strike a chord with many Kashmiris, especially since New Delhi has been attempting to forge different alliances with new political fronts that have largely followed its directives regarding the region’s altered political landscape.

“Since 1953, New Delhi has been trying to cut down the hegemony of regional parties in the valley,” said a political observer, wishing not to be named. “Rashid’s unleashing on the scene is all about devouring the cadre supremacy of a particular party. He may not be directly involved but Rashid’s presence is Delhi’s gain.”

Unconventional approach

Ironically, beyond the allegations, Rashid’s engagement in non-traditional politics and his confrontational style make him more formidable than other political leaders in the race. The same unconventional approach could disrupt many political equations in the Assembly election.

As a two-time legislator from the Langate Assembly seat, Rashid has a history of boldly confronting Delhi and State governments on the issue of Kashmir. While many might have changed during five years of imprisonment, Rashid stands out as an exception.

“After his release, he immediately returned to being the same defiant politician willing to confront Delhi,” the observer noted. “After 2019, no other political leader has maintained such a firm stance against Delhi. In that context, Rashid’s politics now reflects resilience against Central rule in Kashmir. This role used to belong to separatists, who had greater acceptance among the public than mainstream parties. Rashid has now consistently stepped into that space, effectively making the narrative of him being a proxy irrelevant.”

National Conference vice president and former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah at an election rally in Rajpora Assembly seat, in Pulwama on September 15. The NC is still seen as one of the favourites in the Assembly election due to its large cadre base.
| Photo Credit:
Kashmir Pictures/ANI

Rashid’s party, AIP, has fielded 34 candidates across Jammu and Kashmir, contesting 33 seats in the Kashmir Valley and only one in the Jammu region. Recently, the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) and AIP also stitched an alliance for the upcoming election.

“The JeI and AIP alliance looks natural in a way—given the way they have been treated by the Centre since 2019,” said a senior journalist based in Kashmir. “While that may be a guiding commonality between the two, the alliance also reveals the lack of organisational capacity of the AIP, as it is still a new party.”

The critics, the journalist continued, might see it as some kind of an understanding between the two facilitated by external players. “But the JeI and AIP alliance fits the victim and sympathy narrative that actually helped Rashid win a Lok Sabha seat while being in jail,” he added.

Capitalising on resentment

What is new about Rashid’s resurgence is that established regional parties have recognised that his presence in the political arena has attracted a new constituency of voters, which they find disconcerting. This large group is made of Kashmiris who have boycotted elections for nearly three decades as a way to express their resentment against India.

“Since the eruption of militancy, a huge section of voters would always boycott elections. As a result, we used to have a substantial expectation about the turnout,” the senior journalist, who has reported on Assembly elections in Kashmir in the past, told Frontline. “With militancy at its lowest and people finding no outlet to their anger other than casting vote, the voting percentage in Kashmir might break the record of past elections—like we saw in the Lok Sabha election.”

“When Amit Shah said no one can give back the statehood to Jammu and Kashmir except the BJP government, they [the NC and the PDP] did not even dare to say we will fight for it.”Engineer RashidLok Sabha MP (Baramulla) and Awami Ittehad Party chief

Therefore, if, let us say 40 per cent of people used to vote earlier, he continued, it would be divided among different political players in the fray and the person who gets the most votes will be the winner. “With Rashid’s entry, as we saw in the Lok Sabha election also, a huge chunk of the ‘boycott constituency’ might get attracted to polling booths,” he added. “In that sense, if we have 70 per cent voting this election, we will be having a new constituency of voters who will be casting votes to only one contestant—Engineer Rashid.”

The journalist added: “In simple words, the traditional vote will be divided among traditional mainstream players while the boycott vote might go into the single kitty of Rashid. That’s why Rashid may not become a king himself, but he will certainly have a role in deciding who the king will be.”

Failure of PAGD

A year after the BJP-led Union government abrogated Jammu and Kashmir’s special status on August 5, 2019, and detained Kashmiri politicians, including three former Chief Ministers, these leaders came out of captivity and established the PAGD—a coalition of seven parties including the NC and the PDP.

However, the alliance failed, leaving Kashmiris puzzled and disillusioned. “The PAGD was, in a real sense, a promise of the NC and the PDP to the people that they will wage an honourable battle against Delhi to regain Kashmir’s lost status,” said the political observer mentioned earlier. “Ultimately, people could see through their bluff and realised that both have left them high and dry.”

The lack of a symbolic stance from established regional parties like the NC and PDP is seen as an advantage for Rashid, who is capitalising on the sentiments of ordinary Kashmiris. For many, it seems that the Valley-based political parties have accepted the new reality of Kashmir. In fact, during his first Facebook Live after his release, Rashid criticised the top leadership of the NC and the PDP for their previous alliances with the BJP.

Iltija Mufti, candidate from Bijbehara constituency and daughter of former Chief Minister and PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti, addresses her supporters on September 18. Rashid’s ascendance could add to PDP’s existing crises and lead to further erosion of its already dwindling support.
| Photo Credit:
TAUSEEF MUSTAFA

A few days later, during a press conference, Rashid targeted the NC and the PDP again, stating that Article 370 could not be restored by making statements from the comfort of homes. “When Amit Shah said no one can give back the statehood to Jammu and Kashmir except the BJP government, they [the NC and the PDP] did not even dare to say we will fight for it.”

“Both the NC and PDP have played a politics of compromise after 2019,” another political analyst based in Kashmir told Frontline. “People have come to understand that a change is needed, and Rashid aligns better with their interest.”

Even though the NC is still seen as one of the favourites due to its large cadre base, its former PAGD partner, PDP, is facing a crisis that could lead to further erosion of its already dwindling support.

“The PDP had always lived by the rhetoric of being a substitute to the National Conference,” Kashmir-based political scientist Noor Ahmad Baba told Frontline. “It failed because Rashid represents a more ethnic periphery in the politics and underlines the victimhood of Kashmiris more than the PDP.”

A PDP leader currently contesting the Assembly election told Frontline that rather than the NC, Rashid poses a “much bigger threat to our existence”. “People still remember what our government did in 2016… it was our failure,” said the PDP leader, wishing anonymity. “As we’re yet to apologise to the people for what happened, it’s hard for them to trust us.”

Will sympathy translate into votes?

Even though Rashid achieved what once seemed like a distant dream for his small party in the Lok Sabha election, political analysts like Baba believe that the support he garnered during that campaign has faded. “A parliamentary constituency hides a number of things,” Baba told Frontline. “Winning a parliamentary election doesn’t guarantee success in all segments of the Assembly [election].”

According to Baba, people have different kinds of approaches to two elections. “One is from the nationalistic point of view while people have more stakes in the Assembly election,” he explained. “They would see it from the point of view of governance and who is likely going to form the government.”

Also Read | Statehood not a gift for BJP or government to give: Omar Abdullah

Baba believes that Rashid, as a victim with a certain kind of political past, invoked a certain degree of sentiment and sensitivity among people. “But, that sentiment won’t necessarily translate into support for his party in this election,” he said, noting that Rashid’s party is unlikely to secure as much backing as he received in the parliamentary election.

“The kind of emotional appeal he had as a victim, as a prisoner, and as a representative of many Kashmiris who have suffered has all faded since his release,” Baba added. “He cannot dislodge an already existing party like NC.”

However, the first observer mentioned earlier believes that Rashid has done his homework well. “He hasn’t become embittered; instead, he has sharpened his stand and identified the loopholes in the existing parties, capitalising on them,” the observer said. “Even though people realise that Rashid’s claims, like those of other leaders, are also a facade, they connect well enough to make them a cheerleader for a while.”

He added: “Whether this cheering will sustain or not, only time will tell.”

Zaid Bin Shabir is a journalist based in Srinagar.

Statehood not a gift for BJP or government to give: Omar Abdullah

Aseem — Wed, 18 Sep 2024 12:40:19 +0000

It has been a year of unusually intense political activity in Jammu and Kashmir. The erstwhile State, now a Union Territory, saw record turnout in the Lok Sabha election and is now holding its first Assembly election in ten years. In an interview with Frontline in Srinagar, Omar Abdullah, vice president of the National Conference, former Chief Minister, and a candidate himself (from Ganderbal and Budgam Assembly constituencies) speaks about the revocation of Article 370, the restoration of statehood, the BJP’s electoral tactics in the region, and more. Excerpts:

This seems to be a highly participatory election, with many people coming out for every rally and candidate, eager to listen to what they are saying and wanting to be part of the process. This was also true during the Lok Sabha election. So what has changed from previous elections?

So much has changed. First and foremost, it has been 10 years since the last Assembly election. This is perhaps the longest duration between Assembly elections in J&K, longer even than the interval during militancy in the early 1990s. So, there has been a yearning for a return to democratic rule. We haven’t had an elected government in J&K since 2018 so Delhi has directly ruled us for six years.

Then, of course, all the changes have happened in the interim. J&K’s special status was written down, it was divided into two parts and then downgraded to a Union Territory.

A new generation of voters has come forward. Organisations participating in this election were on opposite sides—by calling for a boycott—during previous elections. Today they’re asking people to come out and vote. This election is different, it’s new and that accounts for the participation.

How confident are you about your own prospects and those of the National Conference in this election, especially after that shock defeat in Baramulla [during the Lok Sabha election]?

I don’t think there is any scope for overconfidence. We are extremely hopeful that the party will do well, individually, and that the alliance with the Congress, the CPI(M), and one party in Jammu that the people will return us to the Assembly with a majority.

If you had to reflect on it now, how do you view the defeat in Baramulla? Was that a vote against you or against…

I think it was only a sentimental vote. The campaign that was fought on behalf of Engineer Rashid was fought on two fronts. The first was that Engineer Rashid had to be saved from being hanged and, therefore, people had to vote for him. This was, at the very least, dishonest because the punishment for the charges against him did not include the death penalty. They tried to play the sympathy card. The second front saw his sons, who led the campaign, appealing to voters to vote for their father and bring him out of jail.

Elections don’t release people from prison. If they did, Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Hemant Soren, and more imprisoned politicians wouldn’t have been imprisoned. It was a campaign designed to target people’s heartstrings and it worked. You had the ladies who felt sorry for these boys and decided that they would vote for their father.

It was not a vote for separatism?

I am sure there are elements of that as well. You had a lot of first-time voters….well in a manner of speaking [in previous elections] his [Engineer Rashid] three main slogans were that J&K is not an integral part of India, accession is unacceptable and that J&K must have a plebiscite. His campaign focussed on these three points. Strangely enough, these points seem to have slipped his mind during his 20-day-long campaign. The only thing he is talking about is the National Conference.

In his speeches, Prime Minister Modi has been dissuading people from voting for dynastic parties that have a separatist and terrorist agenda.

It’s again dishonest on the part of the Prime Minister to take this line against parties like the National Conference that have lost thousands of members, senior party workers, office bearers, Ministers, and elected representatives. I think we deserve better. By all means, criticise us on our governance, the BJP is well within its rights to talk about a family that is connected to the leadership of this party. Fine. But to say we have a terrorist or separatist agenda is a gross injustice and an insult to the thousands of people who died simply because the National Conference didn’t raise the flag of separatism. Whenever we talked about a solution to the problems of J&K, we talked about them within the scope of the Constitution. In 75 years, when has the National Conference carried out a secessionist or a pro-terrorist agenda?

This is probably the first time since 1987, that the NC itself is facing such a raft of candidates wherever it is contesting—Independents, Jamaat-e-Islam, Engineer Rashid, etc. How do you view this phenomenon?

One way of looking at it is as a concerted effort being made to divide votes. Why are all these parties and candidates only present on this side of the Peer Panchal, on the Kashmir side, and not in Jammu?

Why is this sort of division of votes being attempted in seats where the BJP has no stakes? So you don’t see it happening in seats where the BJP believes they have a standard chance of winning. That’s one way of looking at it. The BJP will, of course, tell you that this is part of the naya [new] J&K and that people feel more enthused about democracy. I know what I believe. Individuals will have to form their own opinions.

Also Read | Kashmir braces for its first Assembly election in a decade with hope and scepticism

But if you have your constituents with you, then it shouldn’t be a problem whether there are vote cutters and vote dividers.

I’m sure that when push comes to shove, ultimately none of this will work. But that doesn’t mean that we go silent about it now because people need to realise what is happening. One of the dangers we face as a result of a fractured mandate is the possibility that the Indian government will just continue to extend Governor’s rule.

Central rule will be maintained indefinitely and they’ll leave the Assembly in suspended animation. One of the risks that we face is the BJP forming a government. But the second risk we face is that the BJP will then impress upon the Union government to leave the Assembly suspended. All this would have been for nothing. So, the people of J&K need to realise that this election, perhaps more than the previous ones, is important. So, that they vote carefully while considering the fallout of their vote.

Concerning fractured mandates, what are the options if you are in a scenario where you have the most number of seats but you are not in a position to form a government?

At the moment we are concerned with offering the people with the best route to an elected government with the understanding that we have with the Congress. Therefore, it would be highly premature to contemplate the possibility that this alliance will not come to part with its own majority.

I just want to push this a bit further.

No, I know you’d want to but my answer won’t change. We are not looking at that possibility.

What is the main issue in this election?

I don’t think there is any one main issue. There is the overwhelming issue of what was done to J&K on August 2019. There is the whole sort of humiliation that was heaped on us with the downgrading to a Union Territory status. But then, coupled with this, there are the day-to-day governance issues on which the administration, over the last 5-6 years, has failed miserably. So whether it is services like electricity, health, education, clean drinking water, unemployment, which has only grown worse, or the debt. Today, J&K’s GDP to debt ratio is 49 per cent. We are, along with Punjab, the most debt-ridden territory in this country and a lot of that has to do with this double-engine, so-called government that we’ve had in J&K for the past 10 years.

“One of the things that holds us back is violence in Jammu and Kashmir. The BJP has been responsible for this through its failures in promoting and allowing militancy to regroup in the Jammu region.”

So, if you form the government, what would your first order of business be?

Well, of course, there is the legislative business, which I believe any incoming administration will have to initially battle, that includes restoration of statehood. Enough commitments have been made publicly, privately, in Parliament, and in the Supreme Court, about statehood being restored to J&K. So, I think the first thing any government should do is to demand the restoration of that, failing which, they should explore legal options.

Before this election, you said this Chief Minister would have no powers and that you don’t see yourself waiting outside his office for files to be cleared. So if you form the government and you are the chief ministerial face of this campaign…

Again, this is all very premature because none of these things are a factor until the results are out.

How do you foresee the equation between the Chief Minister and the elected government?

Obviously, any elected Chief Minister in the current scenario will find the going difficult. Even with States like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, etc., opposition-ruled governments have found it very difficult to get their work done thanks to the BJP using the Raj Bhavan to scuttle their agenda. More often than not they end up approaching the Supreme Court to have pressure put on Raj Bhavan to make sure proposals are cleared.

With a Union Territory, things are going to be worse. That said, an elected government is still able to push back. The Governor will not have free rein as he has had for the last 5 or 6 years. There will be a certain amount of checks and balances that will automatically get built into the system which will come into play. But as I said, most importantly, the elected government, the incoming Chief Minister will have to fight for the restoration of statehood. And then, of course, the scenario changes.

National Conference supporters hold a rally in support of Reyaz Bedar from Pattan assembly constituency for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election at Pattan in Baramulla on Sept. 15, 2024.
| Photo Credit:
ANI

Home Minister Amit Shah said, in a statement, that statehood has to be given by the government at the Centre.

It is not a gift to be bestowed upon us. They had no business taking it away from us in the first instance. And what are they trying to suggest? That the people of J&K have to beg, bow, and scrape before them before we get it. Let’s not forget that this election is hardly something they willingly conducted in J&K. It has been forced on them as a result of the observations of the Supreme Court, while the Article 370 issue was being adjudicated. Left to the Central government, these elections would not have been happening. This is why I previously mentioned that we now have Supreme Court’s records which state that the government committed itself to the restoration of statehood. So if they don’t do it willingly, we’ll ask the Supreme Court to remind them of their promise.

If the intention is to keep the BJP out, why is it that the Gupkar Alliance fell apart?

Well, it was never an electoral alliance, but the PDP needs to answer for the fact that they never supported the alliance in the parliamentary election. They put their own interest ahead of that of the people of J&K. When they were told, in no uncertain terms, it looked like five parliament seats, of which the National Conference already held three, the possibility of a seat-sharing arrangement for the Lok Sabha election was highly unlikely. But should the PDP work to support alliance candidates, we would have no hesitation in opening a dialogue with them for seat sharing in the Assembly election. But clearly that was something that was unacceptable to the PDP.

Their campaign is singularly focussed on the National Conference. It’s almost as if the BJP doesn’t exist. I guess in some ways they’re embarrassed by the fact that they were the ones who were responsible for bringing the BJP into the fold. Look, we always knew that the BJP was going to be the villains in J&K. The PDP didn’t need to bring them in and show them where all the treasure lay. But that’s what they did. They brought the BJP in and showed them the route to dismembering J&K. And that’s what the BJP did.

But the NC also allied with the BJP once…

Well, if you can’t see the difference between that NDA and this BJP, then there’s nothing in my answer that will convince you. If you can’t see the difference between [former Prime Minister Atal Bihari] Vajpayee sahib’ssort of dealings with J&K and Prime Minister Modi’s, then again nothing I say will convince you. Prime Minister Vajpayee’s approach to contentious issues like [Article] 370, like dialogue with Pakistan, like how to handle an internal dialogue, opening up the routes like the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road. These are all part of the record. And, I mean, compare that to how this current government and its muscular approach has been used to deal with Jammu and Kashmir.

Would a government headed by you push for peace with Pakistan? Would that be one of the agendas?

So clearly normalising relations with Pakistan is not sort of the domain of an elected State government. That said, we can at least, any elected State government should try and create conditions that are conducive for such a dialogue. One of the things that holds us back is violence in J&K. The BJP has been responsible for this through its failures in promoting and allowing militancy to regroup in the Jammu region. The BJP has said that if the Congress is elected, militancy will start again, yatris will be targeted, so on and so forth. In reality, yatriswere targeted while the BJP and the PDP were allies. Militancy has regrouped and restarted in Jammu during their regime. We were the ones who had actually cleared Jammu of militancy. It was their failures that have led to this situation. So instead of blaming or accusing us of being the ones who will restart militancy, they need to explain why militancy started again during their regime.

Also Read | Jammu and Kashmir Lieutenant Governor gets more power, and it doesn’t bode well for democracy

How do you see the Jammu region’s response to the BJP and what it has done in removing Article 370?

I don’t think we can quantify that response right now because we have no results on which to base it. Let the election results come and then we’ll understand. There is certainly a lot of anger in large sections of the Jammu population, whether it’s to do with the Darbar move and what that has meant for the status of Jammu, whether it has meant, it has been about the system of recruitment into the army, the Agniveer system, whether it has been about the sort of regrouping of militancy, but to what extent Jammu will move away from voting on religious lines and vote to express this anger and this unhappiness, we’ll wait and see.

Regarding [Article] 370, there was this fear that there would be a demographic change and that people would come purchase land and take our jobs. Have those fears come true?

Well, it is never going to be an overnight thing. It is always going to be a creeping effect and you have started to see that, and again, more in parts of Jammu than here but it’s not sort of gone totally unnoticed even in the way in which assets here are now being sort of mortgaged off or sold or handed out to people who don’t belong to J&K. Again, it is there for you to see how the Centaur Hotel in Srinagar has been given to people who don’t belong to J&K, how this government is trying to part with the club and other tourist assets in Pahalgam. There are similar instances and stories Jammu side. I mean, as I said, it’s more a sort of creeping effect rather than a sudden overnight change.

So would the State government be able to reverse those decisions?

Certainly. All States have the right to frame their own domicile laws and our domicile laws in J&K today are amongst the weakest. We only have to look at States like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and others to see their domicile laws and compare them to ours. Or even for that matter, look, Ladakh and J&K were born out of the same sort of decision: the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act. Look at the laws that have been implemented in Ladakh in terms of domicile, land and purchase and other things. And then look at J&K. So there is certainly scope for building in further protections.

Would you also push for reunification of Ladakh and J&K?

People of Kargil were not happy with what was done but Leh was more celebratory. Today, that euphoria, that sense of celebration has all but disappeared. Whether that territory would want to come back to J&K is something that one can only sort of figure out after sort of talking to the people there. But at least we can continue to highlight the government’s failures to address their concerns.

One last question. Your sons are campaigning in this election and they were as well in the looks of our election. Is that the new generation of the NC’s leadership?

No. They are just helping out in a small way, as families do. You have, of course, the biggest example in the Engineer Rashid campaign, where his sons helped out. More recently, there is Ghulam Nabi Azad’s campaign, where I recently saw a video of his daughter campaigning. Families help out in campaigns, as families help out in most sorts of work, but nothing beyond that. Left to me, I’d be more than happy for this campaign to end and they can go back to building their law practice, which I think is far more important than anything else.

Nirupama Subramanian is an independent journalist who has worked earlier at The Hindu and at The Indian Express.

Jammu and Kashmir: Back to the ballot

Aseem — Mon, 02 Sep 2024 13:15:59 +0000

The Election Commission of India’s announcement of dates for the long-awaited Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir has triggered a surge in political activity across the region. With the election scheduled to be held in three phases—on September 18, September 25, and October 1 to elect 90 members—the political scene is buzzing after a long time, with candidates preparing to campaign for their first Assembly election in a decade, parties unveiling manifestos, and MLA hopefuls switching sides.

The election is significant as it is the first since the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status under Article 370 of the Constitution and the dissolution of its statehood in August 2019. The people are eagerly awaiting the restoration of a stable State government in Jammu and Kashmir after the six-year hiatus. The results will be announced on October 4.

Mohammad Latif, a resident of Awantipora in south Kashmir, told Frontline that even if the election did not bring complete relief, it would at least get rid of an excessive bureaucracy. “Restoring statehood along with full powers to the Chief Minister will bring significant change to J&K. Only time will tell whether statehood will be restored after the elections or whether the Lieutenant Governor [L-G] will continue to make key decisions,” he said.

In Bandipora’s Bangladesh village in north Kashmir, Ghulam Hassan Bhat, a fisherman, said that while the Assembly election might spur development, the ground situation could remain unchanged. “Unlike the Lieutenant Governor, MLAs will be more accessible to the common man, allowing local issues to be addressed easily. However, we don’t expect significant changes on the ground. For instance, Article 370 is unlikely to be restored unless J&K regains statehood and a regional party secures a majority to pass legislation in the Assembly.”

2014 election and a fractured mandate

The previous Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir, held in 2014, resulted in a fractured mandate. The coalition government of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the BJP collapsed midway, leading to the imposition of Governor’s Rule in June 2018. In December 2018, following the expiration of six months of the Governor’s Rule, the Central government imposed President’s Rule.

On August 5, 2019, the Centre revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status under Article 370 of the Constitution and bifurcated the State into two Union Territories: Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. In December 2023, the Supreme Court directed the Election Commission to conduct the Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir by September 30 of this year, with no representation from Ladakh.

Also Read | Kashmir braces for its first Assembly election in a decade with hope and scepticism

A senior journalist who has covered Jammu and Kashmir since 1999 said that there was a fresh wave of political excitement, but mostly on social media, after a prolonged period of political stagnation in the Valley. According to him, the enthusiasm on the ground appeared to be subdued for now but it would be interesting to see how this evolved in the coming weeks.

Anuradha Bhasin, Executive Editor of Kashmir Times, told Frontline that the upcoming Assembly election could be more significant than ever because of the extensive changes in constituencies following the 2022 delimitation exercise and the evolving political landscape over the past five years.

“The National Conference [NC] is expected to emerge as the single largest party in Kashmir, while Jammu will see a tight contest between the Congress and the BJP. Despite the J&K Assembly’s limited powers, political leaders are eager to contest to assert their legitimacy,” she said.

As the election draws near, several parties, but especially the PDP, are facing internal rebellions. Leaders have shifted allegiances, primarily due to being denied a ticket. For instance, Suhail Bukhari, who was a close associate of PDP president Mehbooba Mufti and a former party spokesperson, resigned after his candidature was shot down. He expressed disappointment over the party’s decision to support former Minister Basharat Bukhari, who recently rejoined the PDP after stints with the NC and Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference.

Another PDP leader, Aijaz Mir, has also resigned. This was followed by the resignations of two District Development Council (DDC) chairpersons from Shopian.

Dr Harbaksh Singh, a senior PDP leader and DDC member from Tral in south Kashmir, has joined the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) led by Sheikh Abdul Rashid, also known as Engineer Rashid.

On the other hand, former Minister Abdul Haq Khan has rejoined the PDP after having left the party following the government’s collapse in 2018.

Asiea Naqash, former PDP Minister and the party’s additional general secretary, told Frontline that there was a growing demand from the public and workers for the return of former leaders. “We have reintegrated our old leaders and are bringing some new faces for the upcoming election. We are starting on a positive note, aware that every political journey has its ups and downs.”

Highlights

The Election Commission of India has announced the dates for the Assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir, marking the first since the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status under Article 370 of the Constitution.

The upcoming Assembly election could be more significant than ever due to the extensive changes in constituencies following the 2022 delimitation exercise and the evolving political landscape over the past five years.

As the election draws near, several parties, especially the PDP, are facing internal rebellions. Leaders have shifted allegiances due to being denied a ticket. Analysts predict a fractured mandate yet again, which may prompt regional parties to ally with national parties.

The PDP’s challenging road ahead

Cracks within the PDP began to surface following the dissolution of its alliance with the BJP in June 2018. The fallout saw 19 MLAs abandon the party.

Mufti, who herself faced defeats in the past two Lok Sabha elections in what was once considered the party’s stronghold of South Kashmir, attributed the exodus of her MLAs to the Central government’s alleged efforts to undermine the party. The PDP’s alliance with the BJP had previously attracted considerable public criticism, with many describing it as an “unholy alliance”.

Iltija Mufti, daughter of PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti and the party’s candidate from Bijbehara constituency, in Anantnag on August 27 after filing her nomination papers.
| Photo Credit:
PTI

Political analysts say the PDP faces a challenging road ahead. Despite the return of some senior leaders, the party is projected to secure only three to five seats. For instance, the party’s recent decision to overlook four-time MLA Abdul Rehman Veeri from Bijbehara in favour of Mehbooba’s daughter Iltija Mufti—a move seen as an attempt to bolster her political career—has fuelled concerns about the party’s electoral prospects.

The Altaf Bukhari-led Apni Party and the Ghulam Nabi Azad-led Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), both formed after the abrogation of Article 370, have struggled to establish themselves in Jammu and Kashmir’s political landscape, losing several founding members and senior leaders.

Noor Ahmad Baba, a political analyst and former professor at the University of Kashmir, said that new political parties are viewed as implanted groups and have struggled to gain traction in the Valley. “Many see these parties as mere extensions of the BJP, which itself lacks influence in Kashmir. After the abrogation of Article 370, many leaders, especially from the PDP, joined newly formed parties such as the Apni Party and the DPAP, expecting strong Central backing and success. However, the poor performance of these parties in the recent Lok Sabha election has undermined public trust in them. As a result, many of these leaders are now either returning to the PDP or choosing to contest independently.”

Zafar Iqbal Manhas, vice president of the Apni Party, resigned following his defeat in the Lok Sabha election from the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency. He and his son, Irfan Manhas, are expected to join the Congress.

Chowdhary Zulfikar Ali, a prominent Gujjar leader and former Minister, has joined the BJP after leaving the Apni Party. Usman Majid, Apni Party vice president and senior leader from north Kashmir’s Bandipora, and Noor Muhammad, former Srinagar MLA, too have resigned from the party. Meanwhile, former Jammu and Kashmir Minister Taj Mohiuddin has left the DPAP.

Former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti has declined to take part in the upcoming Assembly election but remains actively involved in party affairs. Omar Abdullah, former Chief Minister, is planning to contest from Ganderbal.In their manifestos, the two main regional parties have made a slew of promises, including fighting for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood.

“Analysts say the pre-election alliance between the NC and the Congress will result in growing resentment because of the sidelining of senior party leaders and workers.”

The PDP promises to abolish contentious laws such as the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) and the Enemy Act. Apart from repealing the Public Safety Act, the NC has promised to encourage dialogue between India and Pakistan.

NC spokesperson Ifra Jan told Frontline that if the people stood by Article 370 and opposed the Central government’s decisions from August 2019, they would vote for the NC; otherwise, they would support the BJP. “An elected government is better equipped to challenge the LG compared with anyone else. For instance, only an elected Chief Minister like Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi had the authority to stand up to the BJP and the LG. Similarly, an elected government in J&K will be better positioned to approach the Supreme Court again for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood.”

The NC and the Congress will fight the election together, with the NC contesting in 51 seats and the Congress fielding candidates in 32 constituencies. One seat each has been allocated to the CPI(M) and the J&K National Panthers Party. A “friendly contest” is anticipated in five constituencies where both parties have fielded candidates.

Analysts say the pre-election alliance between the NC and the Congress will result in growing resentment because of the sidelining of senior party leaders and workers. They argue that a post-election alliance would have been a more strategic approach to mitigate internal conflicts and ensure a fairer representation within the parties.

Mehbooba Mufti has stated that her party will support the Congress-NC alliance in the election provided they adopt the PDP’s agenda, including on the Kashmir issue. Talking to reporters following the release of the PDP’s manifesto, she ruled out any alliance with the BJP, emphasising that resolving the Kashmir problem was her top priority.

The jailed politician Engineer Rashid, who defeated Omar Abdullah from Baramulla in the recent Lok Sabha election, has also announced his party’s candidates for the election. Abrar Rashid Sheikh, Rashid’s 26-year-old son and leader of the AIP’s Lok Sabha campaign, told Frontline that the party would contest in 30 to 35 seats in Jammu and Kashmir. On potential alliances, he indicated that the party leadership would make the final decision but confirmed that there would be no alliance with the BJP.

Rakesh Thakur, the BJP candidate from Ramban constituency. In Jammu, it will be a close contest between the BJP and the Congress.
| Photo Credit:
ANI

However, analysts are sceptical about the party’s growing confidence. “The emotional appeal that boosted Rashid’s Lok Sabha success may not translate into similar support for the Assembly election,” said an analyst.

After opting out of the recent Lok Sabha election in Kashmir, the BJP has announced candidates from both Jammu and Kashmir in the Assembly election. Its list of 16 candidates for the first phase of polling is out, but its release was marred by dissent within the party’s State unit over the selection process.

Regional parties

Besides national and prominent regional political parties, a significant development is that the banned Jamaat-e-Islami Jammu and Kashmir (JeI) is also planning a return to the electoral landscape after 37 years. It will do so by supporting independent candidates. A Jamaat member who is in the know of things told Frontline that given the shifting geopolitical scenario, Jamaat had decided to enter the electoral arena. “We aimed to contest the election directly, but the ban on Jamaat prevented it. We made considerable efforts to persuade the Central government to lift the ban but to no avail. Despite the restrictions, the JeI will support its own independent candidates in key constituencies across the Valley.”

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Sarjan Ahmad Wagay, a popular religious cleric known as Sarjan Barkati and currently jailed in a terror-funding case, sought to run as an independent candidate. However, his nomination form was rejected.

The All Parties Sikh Coordination Committee has also announced its decision to contest the election, starting with three seats in the Kashmir Valley.

In Kashmir, the main contest is expected to be among the NC-Congress alliance, the PDP and the AIP, while in Jammu, it will be a close contest between the BJP and the Congress.

Analysts predict a fractured mandate yet again, which may prompt regional parties to ally with national parties such as the Congress or the BJP. They also see the possibility of a hung Assembly, which could result in another election next year.

Irfan Amin Malik is a journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir.