NEW DELHI: Mahayuti leaders, including Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde, on Wednesday shared videos of their bags being checked by poll body officials in response to Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray‘s criticism of the Election Commission.
Sharing a video on X, NCP chief Ajit Pawar wrote: “Today, while on my way for election campaigning, the Election Commission conducted a routine check of my bags and helicopter. I fully cooperated and believe that such measures are essential to ensure free and fair elections.”
“Let us all respect the law and support efforts to uphold the integrity of our democracy,” the NCP chief wrote.

The bags of chief minister Eknath Shinde being checked by the poll officials was also shared by Shiv Sena. The party said Shinde’s bags were checked at Palghar Police ground helipad when he reached for the election campaign.

Ramdas Athawale’s party, which is a BJP ally, also shared video of party chief’s frisking video in Pune.
Earlier in the day, BJP shared a video of its leader Devendra Fadnavis being checked at an airport, saying it was a normal procedure ahead of the election.
The frisking by poll officials became the latest flashpoint in Maharashtra after UBT chief Uddhav Thackeray’s bags were checked twice in Yavatmal and Latur.
Criticising the EC, Uddhav asked if the election authorities would also inspect the bags of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other senior leaders.
The sources in the Election Commission, however, told PTI that aircraft and helicopters of top leaders across political spectrum are checked as part of standard operating procedure.
They said in the previous polls too, planes and helicopters of BJP president JP Nadda and Home Minister Amit Shah were checked.
“There have been strict SOPs followed by enforcement agencies for a level playing field. During the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a similar issue was raised in Bihar and it was clarified that the helicopters of prominent leaders, including Nadda was checked in district Bhagalpur on April 24 and Shah in district Katihar on April 21 were also checked as per SOP,” a functionary pointed out.
The sources also recalled the statement of Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar during the announcement of ongoing assembly elections that directions have been given to the enforcement agencies to ensure checking of helicopters of all leaders for a level playing field.

Before the formation of the BJP in 1980, the Congress dominated Maharashtra’s politics with the formidable support of Marathas, Dalits, Kunbis, tribal people, and Muslims. The appeal of the BJP’s predecessor, the Jana Sangh, was limited to Brahmins and, very nominally, some other castes. In order to break this equation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the ideological parent of the saffron parties, decided to change tack. It brought its ideologue and full-time member Vasantrao Bhagwat to the helm of organisational affairs in the State. Bhagwat, a Brahmin from Ratnagiri district of the Konkan region, was asked to make the BJP a statewide party. Towards this, he introduced the Ma-Dha-Va formula.

Ma-Dha-Va is a Marathi acronym for Mali (gardener), Dhangar (shepherd), and Vanjari (a semi-nomadic caste from Marathwada). Bhagwat understood the crux of the politics of the time: the Marathas, the State’s ruling caste, which accounted for 32 per cent of the population, made up the majority of the Congress vote bank. The BJP had little scope for getting Muslims, Dalits, and tribal people into its fold. What remained were the smaller castes, which had no political representation in the Congress.

Those were the days of the Mandal Commission (its recommendations were submitted in 1980), which laid emphasis on the “Other Backward Classes”. With many smaller communities eyeing OBC status, Bhagwat focussed on the Malis, Dhangars, and Vanjaris, which were the dominant communities in that category. Thus emerged the first generation of BJP leaders in Maharashtra: N.S. Farande (Mali), Anna Dange (Dhangar), and Gopinath Munde (Vanjari).

The BJP’s strategy to consolidate the non-Maratha smaller castes, or OBCs, paid off. It helped the party expand its influence among the Bahujan. The term “Bahujan” was in use a thousand years ago in the Pali language to describe the non-elite classes. In modern India, the social reformer Jyotirao Phule, himself from the Mali community, used it in his path-breaking essay on the history of non-Brahmins. Babasaheb Ambedkar expanded the concept further in his works.

Also Read | Maharashtra Assembly Election 2024: The talking heads

Bhagwat’s outreach gave the BJP, hitherto known as a Brahmin-dominated party, a Bahujan tag. In 2024, following the defeat of the Mahayuti (grand alliance) led by it in the Lok Sabha election held in April-May, and with the Maratha reservation movement emerging as a dominant political issue, the party has returned to the social engineering days of the Ma-Dha-Va formula to save the day.

The Maratha reservation demand

The Maratha reservation demand is not new, but it gained fresh momentum under the leadership of Manoj Jarange-Patil. On October 1, 2023, following a police lathicharge on protesters that Jarange-Patil led in the Jalna district of Marathwada, the agitation for Maratha reservation turned violent for the first time in its 20-year history (“Maratha quota agitation: A cat among the pigeons”, Frontline, published online on November 11, 2023).

The protest by the dominant community of Marathas put pressure on the State government. Jarange-Patil’s demand was to include the Marathas from the Marathwada region in the Kunbi category. The Kunbi community, which is predominant in the Vidarbha region, comes under the OBC category. In a way, Jarange-Patil was demanding OBC status for the Marathas too. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde accepted his demand and announced a committee headed by a retired judge to look into it.

At this point, the government faced a backlash from the OBCs in the State, who were against sharing the space with the Marathas. In late 2023, Chhagan Bhujbal, a Cabinet Minister in the Shinde government, opposed the government decision publicly. He addressed rallies in Marathwada, where the Maratha reservation issue was central to the political discourse. Jarange-Patil’s rallies demanding Kunbi status for Marathas and Bhujbal’s rallies opposing it split the State vertically along caste lines.

The BJP was already in trouble because of careless remarks made by its members ahead of the Lok Sabha election that the party wanted a three-fourths majority in Parliament in order to change the Constitution. This angered Dalits; Muslims were already preparing for tactical voting, and tribal communities were exploring alternatives after incidents of atrocities against them in Manipur and Madhya Pradesh. With the Maratha bloc also turning against it, the Mahayuti won only 17 seats in Maharashtra as against the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) 31. This prompted the BJP to introspect.

Interestingly, the plot thickened soon after the Lok Sabha election results were announced when a protest by Lakshman Hake and Navnath Waghmare on June 13 over the dilution of the OBC quota grabbed the headlines. The protest venue was Vadi Godri village in Ambad tehsil of Jalna district, barely 4 km from Jarange-Patil’s village and his protest venue at Antarvali Sarathi.

Hake was a little-known OBC leader who contested the Lok Sabha election from the Madha constituency and secured just 5,134 votes. He comes from the Dhangar community, a large section of which has been demanding reservation under the Scheduled Tribes category. He highlighted a promise made by the BJP in 2014 to give the community reservation under the ST status if it came to power. Hake’s protest against the inclusion of Marathas in the Kunbi category saying that it will reduce the existing share of OBCs resonated among members of the latter.

The Lok Sabha results came as a shocker not just to the Mahayuti, which won just one of the eight seats in the Marathwada region, but to the OBCs too. Two OBC leaders, Mahadev Jankar of the Dhangar community and Pankaja Munde of the Vanjari community, lost the elections from Parbhani and Beed, respectively. In this context, Hake’s protest became immediately popular among OBC youth. Over the past three months, a perception has been created that Hake has consolidated OBC support across the State.

Hake has asked his supporters to defeat the “wrong candidates”, specifically naming Rajesh Tope and Rohit Pawar, both MLAs of the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) faction, which is a constituent of the MVA along with the Congress and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena faction.

Meanwhile, in the Maratha camp, Jarange-Patil, who had refused to contest the Lok Sabha election on the grounds that he would not enter electoral politics, was under pressure to field candidates for the Assembly election. He held talks with Muslim leaders, mainly the Islamic scholar Sajjad Nomani, with a view to fielding joint candidates in a few seats. But, by the morning of November 4, Jarange Patil seemed to realise that by doing so he would be dividing the Maratha vote, which would ultimately help the BJP. He decided not to contest the election and asked his supporters “to vote for anyone of their choice while keeping the community’s interests in mind”.

A clear picture emerges

From the outset, Jarange-Patil was seen as a front for the NCP (Sharad Pawar). Many BJP MLCs such as Pravin Darekar, Sadabhau Khot, and Prasad Lad had called him a mask for Pawar. The tallest Maratha leader in the State, Pawar was widely believed to be the hand behind the Maratha movement. However, with Jarange-Patil appealing to his supporters to defeat the BJP’s candidates and Hake asking his followers to defeat Pawar’s candidates, the picture is beginning to get clearer in Maharashtra.

Given the widespread opinion that a Jat-versus-non-Jat binary helped the BJP retain Haryana for a third consecutive time in the recently held Assembly election, it seems likely that the Maharashtra election is being worked along the same lines.

The BJP has tasted success with its social engineering formula on many occasions. In 2016, when Devendra Fadnavis was Chief Minister, the Maratha community hit the streets in large numbers over the sexual abuse of a Maratha girl from Ahmednagar (now Ahilya Nagar) district. The community held 52 rallies across the State, which were seen as attempts by the opposition parties to stir public sentiment against the BJP. At that time too the BJP’s strategy of consolidating non-Maratha Hindu votes in the State paid off. Within four months, in the local body elections (2016-17), the BJP emerged a clear winner, securing almost 200 municipal councils of 320 and 21 municipalities of 26.

Also Read | This battle is for the soul of Maharashtra: Balasaheb Thorat

Political observers, however, point to one difference between 2017 and 2024. Jaydeo Dole, a senior journalist from Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, said: “In 2017, the BJP’s novelty factor under Prime Minister Modi was intact. Also, Dalits and tribal people were not a part of the anti-BJP consolidation at that time. This time, Dalits, Muslims, and tribal people are strongly against the BJP. That is why the 2017 non-Maratha consolidation formula is no longer useful for the BJP.”

According to the 1931 Census, Marathas account for 32 per cent of the State’s population, with Dalits at 14 per cent, Muslims at 11.54 per cent, and tribal communities at 9.35 per cent. Although OBC leaders claim that they constitute 54 per cent of the population, there is no authentic data to substantiate this. However, it is clear that if the Maratha–Muslim–Dalit–Tribal consolidation takes place, accounting for more than 60 per cent of the population, any counter-consolidation will not work.

Recognising this, the BJP has focussed on consolidating OBCs along non-Maratha lines while still trying to get a big chunk of the Maratha vote. To achieve this, it has deployed its Maratha leaders to take aggressive stands on religious lines. Leaders such as Nitesh Rane and Pravin Darekar have been vocal on right-wing Hindutva issues, aiming to appeal to religious sentiments.

Another shrewd move by the BJP is to deploy its alliance partners strategically. Chief Minister Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, both Marathas, are campaigning in every constituency where the party has a Maratha candidate. Of the 152 seats the saffron party is contesting, it has given an almost equal number to OBCs (46) and Marathas (44), which shows its intent to avoid antagonising the Maratha community while appealing to the OBCs.

Maharashtra has around 100 Assembly seats where Maratha voters constitute 25 to 40 per cent, 40 constituencies where Kunbi voters constitute 20 to 30 per cent, and around 35 constituencies where non-Kunbi OBC voters make up 20 to 30 per cent. Polarisation along caste lines will matter in these 170 Assembly constituencies, a significant segment of the total 288 Assembly seats. The outcome of this election will depend solely on which caste consolidation strategy proves successful this time.

 Shiv Sena supporters during the nomination filing rally of party candidate Mahendra Thorve for the Assembly election.
| Photo Credit: PTI

The electorally crucial State of Maharashtra will elect Members to its Legislative Assembly later this month. An electorate of 9.59 crore voters (4.95 crore men and 4.64 crore women) will decide the fate of candidates across 288 constituencies. Nearly 20 lakh people are first-time voters. The ruling Mahayuti is pitted against the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

The split within the Shiv Sena party (into the Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde factions) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) (into the Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar factions)—the two major regional parties—has increased the number of key political players to six. This election will determine which faction of these parties best represents the cadre. The focus areas for the election are progressive identity, the legacy of social justice politics, shifting political dynamics, and declining social indicators.

In the recent Lok Sabha election, the MVA, consisting of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar), and the Congress, secured 31 of the 48 seats while the BJP-led Mahayuti won only 17. This was attributed to the Maratha reservation issue (the Maratha community, which accounts for 30 percent of the State’s population, has been agitating for reservation for over a year). This, along with the agricultural crisis, the falling prices of onion, cotton, and soyabean, and subnationalism will be crucial factors in this election.

Other factors include intensifying ideological battles and the resurgence of erstwhile dominant political families. However, the battle is fragmented across the six major parties in the two opposing coalitions. The outcome will be seen in the weeks to come. In this backdrop, Frontline is on the battleground talking to the who’s who of Maharashtra politics to understand the pulse on the ground. Our correspondent Amey Tirodkar is giving you the views from the ground as well as literally from above (he boarded a chopper to talk to veteran Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat). Here’s a list of interviews we did recently.

Stay tuned, keep refreshing the page every day. We will be adding more.

The MP says that the people of Maharashtra know that the Mahayuti government won’t provide employment opportunities.
| Photo Credit: EMMANUAL YOGINI

The Mumbai Congress chief and Member of Parliament, Varsha Gaikwad speaks to Frontline about the issues facing the city, the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi campaign’s focus for the upcoming State Assembly election, and how this election will determine ideological perspectives. Gaikwad also discusses the rampant unemployment in the State, the Dharavi redevelopment project, the MVA’s alliance partners, and more. 

Also Read | We’re Ahead by 2 Lakh Votes in Mumbai: BJP’s Ashish Shelar on Dharavi, Development, & Elections

Also Read | I would say ‘absolute majority’ for the Mahayuti: Sunil Tatkare

Aaditya Thackeray on his way to file his nomination papers in Worli, Mumbai, on October 24, 2024.
| Photo Credit: EMMANUAL YOGINI

Former Minister and leader of Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) Aaditya Thackeray weighs in on his party’s agenda for the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly election in an exclusive interview with Frontline. He says his party will contest with the backing of people’s love and the hard work put in over the past two-and-a-half years by the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Excerpts:

How do you see your first term as an MLA? Maharashtra has seen many developments over the past five years. Your party broke away from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), then you formed the government, which was later toppled. We also saw that the Shiv Sena as a party unit went to the Eknath Shinde faction with the Election Commission’s verdict.

I see it in two compartments. First, there was our government. Now for the last two years, there has been an illegal government. Uddhavji was Chief Minister. In our times, there was the pandemic. But the world praised our work during this phase: WHO praised our work in Mumbai. Despite COVID-19, Maharashtra’s growth did not stop. We brought in investments of Rs.80,000 crore to the State in two years. We waived farmer loans.

But compare this to the two years of the Shinde-led government. There is zero investment. Industrialists are running away from Maharashtra. There is an extreme level of corruption. This government has failed to protect the State’s interests. It has failed to hold the Foxconn Vedanta project, which was supposed to create one lakh jobs in the State. On the law-and-order front, this government has failed.

Also Read | Maharashtra election: Will the promise of mega infrastructure projects win NDA votes?

You have been talking about industries going out of Maharashtra and mainly to Gujarat. Do you believe people are accepting this narrative?

The people of Maharashtra believe there is a conspiracy against the State. Our State has been a leader in industry. We are the biggest manufacturers of pharma products. But the pharma hub shifted out of Maharashtra. Why? We are the most suitable for semiconductor manufacturing. And yet, Foxconn Vedanta was shifted out of Maharashtra. Why? Not even one Magnetic Maharashtra, a programme for the investment in the State, has been held. Why? We are being denied our share in GST. All these developments tell us one thing: they want Maharashtra to lose its leadership.

So, will the industrial setback and the law and order situation be your focus for this election?

My focus for the elections is jobs. We are going to create jobs by bringing in new investments, setting up industries, filling vacant government posts.

You have also mentioned law and order. Does this mean your focus of attack will be on the failure of Home Minister Devendra Fadnavis?

I would say the failure of the government as a whole. When our corporator Abhishek Ghosalkar was killed on the Facebook live Fadnavis made an insensitive statement. This is the arrogance of power. This has come from earning huge money through corruption and uncontrolled power.

You have talked about several alleged corruption cases, be it the Dharavi redevelopment issue or industrial failure. How you are going to deal with these if you come to power?

Let us start with Dharavi redevelopment. We are neither against redevelopment nor against any particular industrialist. We are against the way the government has given control of Mumbai’s real estate to one person. Dharavi should have been redeveloped on the same plot of 540 acres. But the State government has allotted another 540 acres of land to Adani. Why? This is illegal. Then there is TDR scam where all the developers of the city will have to buy 40 per cent of the TDR from Dharavi. We are against it. Once we come to power, we will cancel this tender. We will also form a team to investigate the allotments of all plots by this government.

“What is wrong in Muslims voting for us? They are citizens of India and have a right to vote for whoever they want to.”Aaditya ThackerayLeader of the Shiv Sena (UBT)

There is a buzz that you have recently said in your party meetings that the MVA government was toppled because powerful people wanted such decisions regarding Mumbai to be taken and you were a hurdle.

I am saying this on record. We would not have allowed this loot to happen. We would not have allowed our Mumbai to be ruled by industrialists in such a brazen way. That is why our government was toppled using all means. We are now seeing an extensive loot of Mumbai be it in real estate or the industry sector.

There is a Maratha reservation protest. How do you see it?

I believe the core of the issue is jobs. People are lacking jobs. So, they believe that reservations is the way out. I agree with their demand. I am saying that we will have to give more and more job opportunities to our young people. We will only then see the changes.

How do you see going an alliance with Congress and NCP for the Assembly election? There was never an electoral alliance between you.

We had supported the Congress’s Presidential candidate Pratibha Patil and later Pranab Mukherjee. So, there was always a cordial relationship between us. Actually, this is what the BJP started in Maharashtra. Otherwise, there would have been no vindictive politics here. What the BJP has done in the last few years is an attack on Maharashtra’s political culture. On Maharashtra’s asmita (pride). Maharashtra’s sanskruti (healthy culture). We have never seen this kind of politics here.

A recent survey done by the Lokniti programme of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, published by The Hindu, shows that Uddhav Thackeray is the most popular choice for the Chief Minister’s post with 28 per cent acceptance. The incumbent Chief Minister Eknath Shinde came in at 20 per cent. Do you think MVA should announce Uddhav Thackeray as its Chief Ministerial candidate?

I have read this survey. I have also read a similar survey and tracker in recent times. But I take it in a different way. I see it as the love of the people of the State. Uddhav ji as Chief Minister did a fantastic job during the pandemic, and calamities such as the cyclone and landslide. But for us, the priority is to remove this government from the State. We want to bring back Maharashtra on track again. The Chief Minister’s post is not that important.

It is also being said that this is election will decide who the real Shiv Sena is. Do you believe that?

I think people know who the real Shiv Sena is. A thief cannot claim what is not his.

Also Read | Maharashtra: A State in flux

You are attacking the BJP and the Mahayuti. But after the Lok Sabha election, they launched the Ladki Bahin (beloved sister) scheme. They are also pushing other welfare schemes. Don’t you think this is going to affect the election?

The BJP came to power by promising to transfer Rs.15 lakh to each person’s account. After 10 years of power, they are transferring Rs.1,500. But their industrialist friends are getting Rs.1 lakh crore. I have also heard from somebody in the BJP that after the election, if they win, they will pull down the Ladki Bahin scheme. But if we come to power, we will increase the amount.

BJP leaders often bring up another issue in their campaign speeches: Muslims voting en bloc for MVA. BJP leaders are calling it “Vote Jihad”. How do you see this?

If Muslims voting for us is Vote Jihad, then what kind of jihad is Prime Minister Modi hugging Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan? What happens when the RSS chief visits a dargah? What is wrong with Muslims voting for us? They are citizens of India and have a right to vote for whoever they want to.

There is a criticism that you have given only one ticket to a Muslim. You want their votes but have not given them representation.

Our party never gives candidature on the lines of caste, religion and other identities. We only see acceptance among workers and the possibility of a candidate winning a particular constituency. Haroon Khan, our Muslim candidate in Versova has been working with the Shiv Sena for a long time. He is popular in Versova among all castes and religions. We have given him a ticket for his work and not for his religion.

So, where do you see the MVA in the final results?

An absolute, clean majority for MVA for sure. Because people know that what Maharashtra needs today is a clean, strong and trustworthy government. A government that will not compromise on the interests of the State.