The BJP was a fairly insignificant player in the political landscape of Haryana until 2014. The Narendra Modi wave in the Lok Sabha election that year was enough to carry the BJP to a convincing victory in the Assembly election held later that year; the party won 47 of the 90 seats and tasted power on its own for the first time in the State. In 2019, it won 40 seats—46 is needed for a simple majority—but was able to return to power with the support of Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which won 10 seats.

In October, the party will complete a decade in office, but a third term appears a bleak prospect as of now: it has the baggage of anti-incumbency and a below par performance in the general election that might go against it. However, the BJP is pulling out all the stops to ensure a hat trick of wins because a loss in Haryana will dent its image further after its less than stellar performance in the Lok Sabha election. In Haryana, the BJP and the Congress shared the 10 seats in the State equally; in 2019 the BJP had won all the seats.

Also Read | Is BJP losing its grip on Haryana?

The Congress is the favourite as of now but is grappling with internal strife as its leaders talk in different tongues and do not appear to be on the same page. Indeed, the coming Assembly election, most analysts say, is the Congress’ to lose.

JJP, Azad in alliance

The JJP on August 27 announced an alliance with Chandrashekhar Azad’s Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) for the upcoming Assembly election. Azad, the Bhim Army leader, who was elected to the Lok Sabha from Nagina in Uttar Pradesh, will be making his first foray into Haryana. The JJP will contest 70 seats and the Aazad Samaj Party 20.

Regional outfits that once ruled the roost in Haryana, such as the Indian National Lok Dal led by Abhay Chautala, son of former Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala, and the JJP were decimated in the general election. Yet, these Jat-dominated outfits are confident of making a comeback in the Assembly election.

The Aam Aadmi Party, too, fancies its chances. In the general election, it contested, unsuccessfully, the Kurukshetra seat as an ally of the Congress. The utterances of some Congress leaders indicate that the alliance is unlikely to extend to the Assembly election.

Confident BJP

Despite the odds stacked against it, the BJP is not unduly rattled. Party leaders said that they had learnt their lessons from the Lok Sabha electoral setback and were confident of the party overcoming the odds. The party is hopeful of harnessing the strength and resourcefulness of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh cadre in the campaign, unlike last time when the cadre’s efforts were seemingly half-hearted.

The BJP’s confidence stems from its vote share in the general election. Despite losing half of the seats, it garnered a healthy vote share of over 46 per cent. However, this is a sharp fall of about 12 per cent from the 58 per cent it had in 2019. The Congress ended up with 43.6 per cent, a bump of more than 15 per cent from 2019.

The contest, for now, is more or less evenly poised, with the Congress enjoying a slight advantage.

Consider this: At the Assembly segment level in the Lok Sabha election, the BJP won 44 of the 90 Assembly segments. The Congress was a close second, leading in 42 segments; the AAP led in 4 segments in Kurukshetra.

This performance in the Assembly segments puts the INDIA bloc marginally ahead, and the onus is on the Congress to keep the momentum going. The party is known to inflict self-goals and has not been very good at converting votes into seats in elections.

Congress infighting

Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and other senior Congress leaders in the State, such as Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala, are often at loggerheads. Despite the All India Congress Committee’s efforts to put out internal fires, the embers continue to glow—the warring factions have even announced separate statewide yatras to underscore their clout.

The 76-year-old Hooda has indicated that this could be his last election, which has in a way worsened the crisis within the party. The senior Hooda, much to the chagrin of Selja and Surjewala, will want the high command to name him as the chief ministerial face. Besides, he is also keen on passing the baton to his son Deepender Singh Hooda (46), an MP.

The pre-eminence of the junior Hooda could sharpen the existing fault lines. Selja, MP from Sirsa, has already made her dissent noticeable by objecting to attempts to name Bhupinder Hooda as the Chief Minister face. She has maintained that the party does not project a chief ministerial face when in the opposition.

Ticket allocation is another process that is likely to fuel dissent. It was in play ahead of the general election when senior leaders Kiran Choudhry and her daughter, Shruti Choudhry, left the party to join the BJP after Shruti was denied the ticket. The Congress high command knows full well that the senior Hooda is indispensable as a Jat leader with a pan-Haryana appeal; Selja and Surjewala are not in his league.

However, for all its confidence, the BJP has a lot of ground to cover. In May, just before the Lok Sabha election, three independent MLAs withdrew thei support to the government, leaving it with a wafer-thin majority.

The party’s strategy is to take steps to offset anti-incumbency and also woo the sizeable Dalit vote. It has not tasted much success in the latter, losing the reserved seats of Ambala and Sirsa in the general election.

The party’s electoral strategy lays emphasis on the consolidation of the non-Jat vote, including Dalits and Punjabis. The flip side, though, is that this has led to counter-polarisation of the Jat vote, which cost the BJP dear. The Congress gained by pitching the “alienation of Jat” theory against the BJP.

Other factors

The Jat vote share, a sizeable 33 per cent, will remain crucial to the outcome of any election in Haryana. The Congress’ gain in vote share in the Lok Sabha election can be attributed not just to gains in Jat-dominated constituencies such as Rohtak, Hisar, and Sonipat, but also to the split in the Dalit vote.

The Congress is keeping its ammunition dry, even as the party’s draft manifesto promises a social security pension of Rs.6,000 a month, restoration of the old pension scheme, a 100 square yard plot for the poor, and 300 units of free electricity, among others.

Also Read | Even stevens in Haryana as Congress scripts resounding comeback

The AAP is riding high after its senior leader Manish Sisodia was released on bail in early August. AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal’s wife, Sunita, is leading the charge in what is Kejriwal’s home State.

Although the AAP lost in Kurukshetra, its vote share in Haryana rose from 0.3 per cent to 3.94 per cent. Ahead of the election, Sunita Kejriwal launched five “Kejriwal’s guarantees”, including free electricity, education, medical treatment, and employment. The party also announced a monthly aid of Rs.1,000 to every woman in the State, a promise that was also made in Punjab but remains unfulfilled.

The JJP was unceremoniously axed by the BJP as an ally just ahead of the Lok Sabha election. Party leaders believe the Assembly election is a different ball game altogether. In the 2019 Assembly election, the JJP emerged kingmaker when the BJP won 40 seats and the Congress 31. The JJP, with 10 seats and a sizeable 14.8 per cent vote share, held the key then. It brokered a deal with the BJP, and Dushyant Chautala was made Deputy Chief Minister.

Skewed ticket allocation is likely to throw up turncoats and Independents galore, and that may have an impact on government formation in case there is a hung Assembly this year.

Gautam Dheer has been covering policy and politics in Punjab, Haryana, and Himachal Pradesh for over two decades.