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Elections, hurricane damage and more: Here are four factors that will shape holiday shoppers' purchases

suimt — Sat, 19 Oct 2024 13:00:01 +0000

A Macy’s store is seen at Herald Square on December 11, 2023 in New York City.

Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

Inflation may have cooled, but retailers are still staring down a holiday season with plenty of uncertainty.

Several hard-to-predict factors will influence consumers’ spending, as they deck the halls and look for the perfect gifts. Volatile weather, election distraction and a deal-hunting mindset may shape the season. And fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas than last year will put shoppers on the clock.

Yet there’s reason for optimism for retailers: Shoppers are feeling more upbeat and plan to spend more compared with last holiday season, according to an annual survey by consulting firm Deloitte and a separate forecast by the National Retail Federation.

Holiday spending in November and December is expected to increase by 2.5% to 3.5% compared with 2023 and range between $979.5 billion and $989 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. That’s a more modest increase than the 3.9% year-over-year jump from the 2022 to 2023 holiday season, when spending totaled $955.6 billion. The NRF’s figure excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

Shoppers expect to spend an average of $1,778 on the holidays this year, 8% more than last holiday season, according to consulting firm Deloitte’s survey. The survey, which included about 4,000 consumers and was conducted in late August and early September, attributed that spending increase to a more favorable economic outlook, a perception among respondents that prices would be higher and more willingness to spend among higher-earning households with an annual income of between $100,000 and $199,000.

Low unemployment, a return to more typical inflation levels and a recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut are lifting consumers’ spirits, said Stephen Rogers, managing director of Deloitte’s Consumer Industry Center.

“People are still in a better frame of mind, despite the political chatter,” he said. “When they look at their bank account and think about what their financial situation is, they feel better.”

People shop (L) ahead of Black Friday at a Walmart Supercenter on November 14, 2023 in Burbank, California.

Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Home Depot, which sells a wide range of holiday decor including Santa-themed throw pillows and a giant animated reindeer for yards, the high demand for decor could be an opportunity. Yet the home improvement retailer said it’s prepared for consumers to seek value, too.

This holiday season, Home Depot bought more low-priced artificial Christmas trees, such as a prelit tree that sells for $49, said Lance Allen, senior merchant of decorative holiday for the home improvement retailer.

Signs showing support for both Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump sit along a rural highway on September 26, 2024 near Traverse City, Michigan.

Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Walmart and SharkNinja, that are hoping shoppers will browse and buy rather than become glued to the news. The election is on Nov. 5, and it could take days for a winner to be called if the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump ends up as close as polls suggest.

SharkNinja CEO Mark Barrocas described the election as the “biggest unknown” that will shape the holiday season.

“It may be a blip and it may be nothing, and it may disrupt things for a few weeks if the news cycle is all-consuming,” he said. “Christmas is going to come and there will be a holiday season. It’s just a matter of how many distractions there are.”

He said the election and the news cycle around it may also influence how consumers feel about the economy.

Walmart’s internal research suggests “an uptick in positivity” as its shoppers enjoy the fall and get ready for Halloween, said Jen Acerra, vice president of customer insights and strategy at Walmart.

“The one thing that is still out there and moving is what’s going to happen with the election, and what happens with the election will really determine if this is something that stays positive or not,” she said.

Already, some companies have blamed the election for taking a bite out of their sales. Amazon chalked up a weak forecast in August to election distraction that would dampen demand for online shopping, a comment some mocked as an excuse.

Delta Air Lines‘ CEO, Ed Bastian, said in a CNBC interview this month that the company expects lower demand before and after the election to hit the carrier’s revenue.

“Consumers will, I think, take a little bit of pause in making investment decisions, whether it’s discretionary or other things,” he said. “I think you’re going to hear other industries talking about that as well.”

After Hurricane Milton hit Florida, the city of Clearwater was flooded. Search and rescue operations are ongoing in the area.

Lokman Vural Elibol | Anadolu | Getty Images

Hurricane damage and winter temperatures

For retailers, cooler and wintery weather is always on the Christmas wish list.

Weather can tip shoppers into the holiday spirit and get them in the mood to buy thicker sweaters, coats and gifts, said Evan Gold, executive vice president for Planalytics, a Philadelphia-based company that advises retailers on weather-related inventory planning.

“There’s no external factor that influences consumers’ purchases as directly, frequently and immediately as the weather,” he said.

This year, the early fall got off to a rockier start. The now unofficial kickoff to the holiday shopping season marked by October sales events coincided with unseasonably warm temperatures in San Francisco and other parts of the country, and severe hurricanes that battered North Carolina and Florida. That makes shoppers less likely to want to buy sweaters, coats and artificial trees.

Yet the weather this year should eventually help retailers, Gold said, since November and December temperatures are expected to be colder than a year ago. He said the shift in weather, such as a dusting of snow or a cold snap, can help signal shoppers to get ready for the season.

Many families will just be trying to rebuild from hurricane damage rather than buying holiday gifts, which could redirect money to furniture, clothes or home repairs, Jack Kleinhenz, the NRF’s chief economist, said on a call with reporters.

“It’ll be just an adjustment in their budget in what they’ll be spending for, but it’s really too early to know the full impact on retail,” he said.

Home Depot expects that, too. It pulled holiday product out of 124 of its big-box stores to make room for items that hard-hit areas need, such as shingles and drywall, Allen said. Instead, he said, it plans to sell a more limited assortment in those stores of items such as wreaths and its top-selling trees.

“They’re trying to rebuild and recover their houses,” he said. “So obviously, they’re not going to go buy a nine-foot reindeer and put that out there.”

A shorter holiday season

Thanks to the calendar, the holiday rush may be on overdrive.

Shoppers will have five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year compared with last year — which could dampen spending or potentially motivate time-pressured shoppers to seek out rush shipping, curbside pickup or other quicker options to get gifts.

The pressure will be on retailers to make the most of each day and to deliver on convenience, as shoppers race to get what they need and expect items to arrive within a few hours or at minimum, within a few days, said the NRF’s Shay.

“A shorter period does have consequences and implications and one of those, of course, is that the shipping season will be shorter,” he said.

On a recent store tour, Kohl’s Chief Marketing Officer Christie Raymond said the retailer expects it will have to work harder to woo customers, especially lower- and middle-income shoppers, who have felt pinched by the cumulative effect of inflation and crunched for time.

“We think they’re feeling more squeezed than last year,” Raymond said. And, she added, shoppers have also said they are “feeling time-squeezed.”

To appeal to those consumers, Kohl’s wants to have more of what they need, Chief Merchandising and Digital Officer Nick Jones said.

The retailer has bulked up its offering of gift items, added more party dresses and started to sell a wider range of decorations, including Christmas trees, lawn ornaments and wrapping paper.

“We want to be a holiday destination,” he said. “We haven’t got the food, but we’ve got everything else.”

Trump again refuses to release current health records, as Harris questions his fitness

Aseem — Fri, 18 Oct 2024 22:53:34 +0000

Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump, addresses the media as he arrives at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport on October 18, 2024, in Detroit, Michigan.

Win Mcnamee | Getty Images

Donald Trump on Friday dismissed more questions about whether he would release his current medical records, doubling down on refusing to provide a health update even as Kamala Harris works to sow doubts about his fitness for the presidency.

The 78-year-old Republican nominee, when asked if he will release his health records, suggested that he has already shared enough information about his medical status.

“Yeah, my health records – I’ve done five exams over the last four years. You’ve got them all,” Trump told a reporter on an airport tarmac after landing in Detroit, Michigan, on Friday afternoon.

Trump then appeared to suggest that he was too busy campaigning against Vice President Harris, the Democratic nominee, to devote time to update his records.

“Obviously, I’m in the middle of a very big and very contentious fight,” he said. “We’re leading. I’ve given my health exams.”

Trump added that he has “done cognitive tests twice, and I’ve aced them. Meaning a perfect score.”

“I want to see her do a cognitive test because she couldn’t ace because she wasn’t born smart,” he said, before walking away from the press.

The Trump campaign did not respond to CNBC’s request for additional comment on Trump’s remarks in Michigan.

Trump told CBS News in August that he would “very gladly” release his medical records, but his campaign has not done so.

Harris, who turns 60 on Sunday, released a detailed health report from her White House doctor on Oct. 12. That same day, Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung claimed in a statement that the Republican nominee “has voluntarily released” multiple health reports.

Cheung pointed to a three-paragraph letter from Dr. Bruce Aronwald, which was shared last November and related to an exam of Trump that was conducted more than a year ago.

Cheung also referred to two memos penned in July by Republican Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas, who formerly served as Trump’s White House physician. Those memos focused on the injury Trump sustained when he narrowly survived an assassination attempt at a July 13 campaign rally.

Harris, meanwhile, has recently ramped up her health-focused attacks on Trump, who would become the oldest person in U.S. history elected president if he prevails in the Nov. 5 election.

During a rally in North Carolina on Sunday, she put a spotlight on Trump’s refusal to release a comprehensive health report, along with his decision not to agree to a second debate.

“It makes you wonder, why does his staff want him to hide away? One must question, one must question, are they afraid that people will see that he is too weak and unstable to lead America? Is that what’s going on?” Harris said.

RTX subsidiary Raytheon to pay more than $950 million to settle foreign bribery, export control fraud probes

Aseem — Wed, 16 Oct 2024 20:54:38 +0000

The Raytheon Technologies headquarters building is seen at dusk in Arlington, Virginia, on Jan. 20, 2024.

J. David Ake | Getty Images

The Raytheon subsidiary of defense contractor RTX agreed Wednesday to pay more than $950 million to settle U.S. Department of Justice investigations into an alleged government contract fraud scheme, violations of foreign bribery laws and the Arms Export Control Act.

Raytheon also agreed to pay more than $124 million to settle charges filed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in connection with paying bribes of more than $32 million to a relative of the emir of Qatar and to military and government officials in that country in exchange for obtaining defense contracts there. More than $22 million of that settlement will be offset by Raytheon’s settlement with the DOJ.

The company as part of the DOJ settlement also agreed to enter into deferred prosecution agreements involving that conduct in federal district courts in Brooklyn, New York, and Massachusetts.

The company was charged in the Brooklyn case with conspiracy to violate anti-bribery laws in a scheme to bribe a high-level government official in Qatar and with failing to disclose the bribes in export licensing applications with the State Department as legally required.

In the Massachusetts case, Raytheon admitted to engaging in two separate schemes to defraud the Defense Department in connection with the Patriot missile systems and a radar system, along with other defense products and services.

The company also will retain an independent monitor for three years and enhance its internal compliance program as part of the settlement, which the DOJ announced.

“Raytheon engaged in criminal schemes to defraud the U.S. government in connection with contracts for critical military systems and to win business through bribery in Qatar,” said Deputy Assistant Attorney General Kevin Driscoll of the DOJ’s Criminal Division, in a statement.

“Such corrupt and fraudulent conduct, especially by a publicly traded U.S. defense contractor, erodes public trust and harms the DOD, businesses that play by the rules, and American taxpayers,” Driscoll said.

RTX in a statement said the settlements with the DOJ and the SEC relate to probes previously disclosed by the company, and that “these legacy legal matters relate to conduct that occurred at Raytheon Company largely prior to 2020,”

“RTX is taking responsibility for the misconduct that occurred,” the company said. “We have worked diligently during the investigations to remediate that misconduct and continue to do so. We are committed to working closely with the incoming independent monitor to improve and further enhance our ethics and compliance program.”

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Trump or Harris? Here are the 2024 stakes for airlines, banks, EVs, health care and more

suimt — Sun, 13 Oct 2024 13:36:31 +0000

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris face off in the ABC presidential debate on Sept. 10, 2024.

Getty Images

With the U.S. election less than a month away, the country and its corporations are staring down two drastically different options.

For airlines, banks, electric vehicle makers, health-care companies, media firms, restaurants and tech giants, the outcome of the presidential contest could result in stark differences in the rules they’ll face, the mergers they’ll be allowed to pursue, and the taxes they’ll pay.

During his last time in power, former President Donald Trump slashed the corporate tax rate, imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, and sought to cut regulation and red tape and discourage immigration, ideas he’s expected to push again if he wins a second term.

In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris has endorsed hiking the tax rate on corporations to 28% from the 21% rate enacted under Trump, a move that would require congressional approval. Most business executives expect Harris to broadly continue President Joe Biden‘s policies, including his war on so-called junk fees across industries.

Personnel is policy, as the saying goes, so the ramifications of the presidential race won’t become clear until the winner begins appointments for as many as a dozen key bodies, including the Treasury, Justice Department, Federal Trade Commission, and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

CNBC examined the stakes of the 2024 presidential election for some of corporate America’s biggest sectors. Here’s what a Harris or Trump administration could mean for business:

American Airlines and JetBlue Airways in the Northeast and JetBlue’s now-scuttled plan to buy budget carrier Spirit Airlines.

The previous Trump administration didn’t pursue those types of consumer protections. Industry members say that under Trump, they would expect a more favorable environment for mergers, though four airlines already control more than three-quarters of the U.S. market.

On the aerospace side, Boeing and the hundreds of suppliers that support it are seeking stability more than anything else.

Trump has said on the campaign trail that he supports additional tariffs of 10% or 20% and higher duties on goods from China. That could drive up the cost of producing aircraft and other components for aerospace companies, just as a labor and skills shortage after the pandemic drives up expenses.

Tariffs could also challenge the industry, if they spark retaliatory taxes or trade barriers to China and other countries, which are major buyers of aircraft from Boeing, a top U.S. exporter.

— Leslie Josephs

JPMorgan Chase faced an onslaught of new rules this year as Biden appointees pursued the most significant slate of regulations since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

Those efforts threaten tens of billions of dollars in industry revenue by slashing fees that banks impose on credit cards and overdrafts and radically revising the capital and risk framework they operate in. The fate of all of those measures is at risk if Trump is elected.

Trump is expected to nominate appointees for key financial regulators, including the CFPB, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that could result in a weakening or killing off completely of the myriad rules in play.

“The Biden administration’s regulatory agenda across sectors has been very ambitious, especially in finance, and large swaths of it stand to be rolled back by Trump appointees if he wins,” said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy at Wolfe Research.

Bank CEOs and consultants say it would be a relief if aspects of the Biden era — an aggressive CFPB, regulators who discouraged most mergers and elongated times for deal approvals — were dialed back.

“It certainly helps if the president is Republican, and the odds tilt more favorably for the industry if it’s a Republican sweep” in Congress, said the CEO of a bank with nearly $100 billion in assets who declined to be identified speaking about regulators.

Still, some observers point out that Trump 2.0 might not be as friendly to the industry as his first time in office.

Trump’s vice presidential pick, Sen. JD Vance, of Ohio, has often criticized Wall Street banks, and Trump last month began pushing an idea to cap credit card interest rates at 10%, a move that if enacted would have seismic implications for the industry.

Bankers also say that Harris won’t necessarily cater to traditional Democratic Party ideas that have made life tougher for banks. Unless Democrats seize both chambers of Congress as well as the presidency, it may be difficult to get agency heads approved if they’re considered partisan picks, experts note.

“I would not write off the vice president as someone who’s automatically going to go more progressive,” said Lindsey Johnson, head of the Consumer Bankers Association, a trade group for big U.S. retail banks.

— Hugh Son

Inflation Reduction Act.

Harris hasn’t been as vocal a supporter of EVs lately amid slower-than-expected consumer adoption of the vehicles and consumer pushback. She has said she does not support an EV mandate such as the Zero-Emission Vehicles Act of 2019, which she cosponsored during her time as a senator, that would have required automakers to sell only electrified vehicles by 2040. Still, auto industry executives and officials expect a Harris presidency would be largely a continuation, though not a copy, of the past four years of Biden’s EV policy.

They expect some potential leniency on federal fuel economy regulations but minimal changes to the billions of dollars in incentives under the IRA.

— Mike Wayland

more than $4 trillion a year.

Despite spending more on health care than any other wealthy country, the U.S. has the lowest life expectancy at birth, the highest rate of people with multiple chronic diseases and the highest maternal and infant death rates, according to the Commonwealth Fund, an independent research group.

Meanwhile, roughly half of American adults say it is difficult to afford health-care costs, which can drive some into debt or lead them to put off necessary care, according to a May poll conducted by health policy research organization KFF.

Both Harris and Trump have taken aim at the pharmaceutical industry and proposed efforts to lower prescription drug prices in the U.S., which are nearly three times higher than those seen in other countries.

But many of Trump’s efforts to lower costs have been temporary or not immediately effective, health policy experts said. Meanwhile, Harris, if elected, can build on existing efforts of the Biden administration to deliver savings to more patients, they said.

Harris specifically plans to expand certain provisions of the IRA, part of which aims to lower health-care costs for seniors enrolled in Medicare. Harris cast the tie-breaking Senate vote to pass the law in 2022.

Her campaign says she plans to extend two provisions to all Americans, not just seniors: a $2,000 annual cap on out-of-pocket drug spending and a $35 limit on monthly insulin costs.

Harris also intends to accelerate and expand a provision allowing Medicare to directly negotiate drug prices with manufacturers for the first time. Drugmakers fiercely oppose those price talks, with some challenging the effort’s constitutionality in court.

Trump hasn’t publicly indicated what he intends to do about IRA provisions.

Some of Trump’s prior efforts to lower drug prices “didn’t really come into fruition” during his presidency, according to Dr. Mariana Socal, a professor of health policy and management at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

For example, he planned to use executive action to have Medicare pay no more than the lowest price that select other developed countries pay for drugs, a proposal that was blocked by court action and later rescinded.

Trump also led multiple efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, including its expansion of Medicaid to low-income adults. In a campaign video in April, Trump said he was not running on terminating the ACA and would rather make it “much, much better and far less money,” though he has provided no specific plans.

He reiterated his belief that the ACA was “lousy health care” during his Sept. 10 debate with Harris. But when asked he did not offer a replacement proposal, saying only that he has “concepts of a plan.”

— Annika Kim Constantino

Paramount Global and Skydance Media is set to move forward, with plans to close in the first half of 2025, many in media have said the Biden administration has broadly chilled deal-making.

“We just need an opportunity for deregulation, so companies can consolidate and do what we need to do even better,” Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav said in July at Allen & Co.’s annual Sun Valley conference.

Media mogul John Malone recently told MoffettNathanson analysts that some deals are a nonstarter with this current Justice Department, including mergers between companies in the telecommunications and cable broadband space.

Still, it’s unclear how the regulatory environment could or would change depending on which party is in office. Disney was allowed to acquire Fox Corp.’s assets when Trump was in office, but his administration sued to block AT&T’s merger with Time Warner. Meanwhile, under Biden’s presidency, a federal judge blocked the sale of Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House, but Amazon’s acquisition of MGM was approved.

“My sense is, regardless of the election outcome, we are likely to remain in a similar tighter regulatory environment when looking at media industry dealmaking,” said Marc DeBevoise, CEO and board director of Brightcove, a streaming technology company.

When major media, and even tech, assets change hands, it could also mean increased scrutiny on those in control and whether it creates bias on the platforms.

“Overall, the government and FCC have always been most concerned with having a diversity of voices,” said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Integrated Media, which specializes in digital media investment.
“But then [Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter] happened, and it’s clearly showing you can skew a platform to not just what the business needs, but to maybe your personal approach and whims,” he said.

Since Musk acquired the social media platform in 2022, changing its name to X, he has implemented sweeping changes including cutting staff and giving “amnesty” to previously suspended accounts, including Trump’s, which had been suspended following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection. Musk has also faced widespread criticism from civil rights groups for the amplification of bigotry on the platform.

Musk has publicly endorsed Trump, and was recently on the campaign trail with the former president. “As you can see, I’m not just MAGA, I’m Dark MAGA,” Musk said at a recent event. The billionaire has raised funds for Republican causes, and Trump has suggested Musk could eventually play a role in his administration if the Republican candidate were to be reelected.

During his first term, Trump took a particularly hard stance against journalists, and pursued investigations into leaks from his administration to news organizations. Under Biden, the White House has been notably more amenable to journalists.

Also top of mind for media executives — and government officials — is TikTok.

Lawmakers have argued that TikTok’s Chinese ownership could be a national security risk.

Earlier this year, Biden signed legislation that gives Chinese parent ByteDance until January to find a new owner for the platform or face a U.S. ban. TikTok has said the bill, the Protecting Americans From Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which passed with bipartisan support, violates the First Amendment. The platform has sued the government to stop a potential ban.

While Trump was in office, he attempted to ban TikTok through an executive order, but the effort failed. However, he has more recently switched to supporting the platform, arguing that without it there’s less competition against Meta’s Facebook and other social media.

— Lillian Rizzo and Alex Sherman

Washington Post previously reported.

In keeping with the campaign’s more labor-friendly approach, Harris is also pledging to eliminate the tip credit: In 37 states, employers only have to pay tipped workers the minimum wage as long as that hourly wage and tips add up to the area’s pay floor. Since 1991, the federal pay floor for tipped wages has been stuck at $2.13.

“In the short term, if [restaurants] have to pay higher wages to their waiters, they’re going to have to raise menu prices, which is going to lower demand,” said Michael Lynn, a tipping expert and Cornell University professor.

— Amelia Lucas

has said she and Biden “reject the false choice that suggests we can either protect the public or advance innovation.” Last year, the White House issued an executive order that led to the formation of the Commerce Department’s U.S. AI Safety Institute, which is evaluating AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic.

Trump has committed to repealing the executive order.

A second Trump administration might also attempt to challenge a Securities and Exchange Commission rule that requires companies to disclose cybersecurity incidents. The White House said in January that more transparency “will incentivize corporate executives to invest in cybersecurity and cyber risk management.”

Trump’s running mate, Vance, co-sponsored a bill designed to end the rule. Andrew Garbarino, the House Republican who introduced an identical bill, has said the SEC rule increases cybersecurity risk and overlaps with existing law on incident reporting.

Also at stake in the election is the fate of dealmaking for tech investors and executives.

With Lina Khan helming the FTC, the top tech companies have been largely thwarted from making big acquisitions, though the Justice Department and European regulators have also created hurdles.

Tech transaction volume peaked at $1.5 trillion in 2021, then plummeted to $544 billion last year and $465 billion in 2024 as of September, according to Dealogic.

Many in the tech industry are critical of Khan and want her to be replaced should Harris win in November. Meanwhile, Vance, who worked in venture capital before entering politics, said as recently as February — before he was chosen as Trump’s running mate — that Khan was “doing a pretty good job.”

Khan, whom Biden nominated in 2021, has challenged Amazon and Meta on antitrust grounds and has said the FTC will investigate AI investments at Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft.

— Jordan Novet

U.S. officials say Israel has narrowed down its targets for strike on Iran

Aseem — Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:40:08 +0000

Keithbinns | E+ | Getty Images

U.S. officials believe Israel has narrowed down what they will target in their response to Iran’s attack, which these officials describe as Iranian military and energy infrastructure.

There is no indication that Israel will target nuclear facilities or carry out assassinations, but U.S. officials stressed that the Israelis have not made a final decision about how and when to act.

The region has been on edge awaiting Isreal’s response to an Iranian missile barrage launched on Oct. 1, which Iran said was in response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and the assasination of its allies, including Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Hezbollah’s powerful leader, Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.

Iran’s attack caused little damage in Israel.

The U.S. does not know when Israel’s response could come but officials said the Israeli military is poised and ready to go at any time once the order is given.

U.S. officials stressed that they have no information to indicate the response will come today but admitted that Israel has not shared a specific timeline with them — and it is not clear Israeli officials have even agreed on one yet.

U.S. and Israeli officials said a response could come during the Yom Kippur holiday.

Israel has shared more information with the U.S. about the retaliation, the officials said, but they withheld many details out of operational security concerns. The U.S. is poised to defend its assets in the region from any immediate counterattack from Iran but is not likely to provide direct military support to the operation.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, last night and they discussed broad strokes about an Israeli response. However, it’s not clear that Gallant provided any concrete details. Their call came after an Israeli Cabinet meeting about the retaliation, but Gallant did not share the specific targets discussed in that meeting.

U.S. officials have continued to urge the Israeli government to make their response proportional, sticking to military targets and avoiding oil, gas and nuclear facilities.

President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not discuss specifics in their call this week either, U.S. officials said.

Biden strongly urged Netanyahu to focus on the humanitarian situation in Gaza and in Lebanon and urged him to bring an end to the fighting. The U.S. president also stressed that Israel needs to consider how difficult it would be to successfully carry out the war in Lebanon and face a strong threat on a second front from Iran.

Jamie Dimon says geopolitical risks are surging: 'Conditions are treacherous and getting worse'

suimt — Fri, 11 Oct 2024 18:19:23 +0000

JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon speaks during the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee oversight hearing on Wall Street firms, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., December 6, 2023.

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon sees risks climbing around the world amid widening conflicts in the Middle East and with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine showing no signs of abating.

“We have been closely monitoring the geopolitical situation for some time, and recent events show that conditions are treacherous and getting worse,” Dimon said Friday in the bank’s third-quarter earnings release.

“There is significant human suffering, and the outcome of these situations could have far-reaching effects on both short-term economic outcomes and more importantly on the course of history,” he said.

The international order in place since the end of World War II is unraveling in light of conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, rising U.S.-China tensions, and the risk of “nuclear blackmail” from Iran, North Korea and Russia, Dimon said last month during a fireside chat held at Georgetown University.

“It’s ratcheting up, folks, and it takes really strong American leadership and Western world leaders to do something about that,” Dimon said at Georgetown. “That’s my No. 1 concern, and it dwarves any I’ve had since I’ve been working.”

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas recently hit the one-year mark since Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7, 2023, sparked war, and there have been few signs of it slowing down. Tens of thousands of people have been killed as the conflict has broadened into fighting on multiple fronts, including with Hezbollah and Iran.

At least 22 people were killed and more than 100 injured in Beirut from Israeli airstrikes on Thursday. Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel on Oct. 1, and worries have risen that an Israeli retaliation could target Iranian oil facilities.

Meanwhile, the Russian government approved a draft budget last week that boosted defense spending by 25% from 2024 levels, a sign that Russia is determined to continue its invasion of Ukraine, analysts say.

Dimon also said Friday that he remained wary about the future of the economy, despite signs that the Federal Reserve has engineered a soft landing.

“While inflation is slowing and the U.S. economy remains resilient, several critical issues remain, including large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world,” Dimon said. “While we hope for the best, these events and the prevailing uncertainty demonstrate why we must be prepared for any environment.”

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Trump Media shares up 100% from recent low as DJT rally continues on heavy trading

Aseem — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 16:33:23 +0000

Omar Marques | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Shares of Trump Media shot up as much as 19% Thursday morning, keeping up the momentum of a rally that has recovered some of the Truth Social operator’s steep losses from a recent weekslong sell-off.

DJT stock was trading around $24 per share shortly after the market open, more than double the $11.75 price it fetched in an intraday trading low, just over two weeks ago.

Trump Media (DJT) Stock Price

The surge came amid little positive news about the company, but coincided with some recent presidential election polls and other indicators that allies of former President Donald Trump, its majority shareholder, took as positive signs.

Many analysts have described Trump Media as a meme stock that is being bought and sold in large part by fans of Trump, who view investing in the company as a way to support the Republican presidential nominee and wager on his odds of winning the White House.

“It doesn’t have anything to do with fundamentals,” said Anne Stevenson-Yang, founder and research director of short seller J Capital Research, in an interview with CNBC.

“It’s a bet on Trump, is all,” she said.

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Hurricane Milton makes landfall in Florida as Category 3 storm

Aseem — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 00:52:21 +0000

A satellite image shows Hurricane Milton progressing in the Gulf of Mexico before its expected landfall in Florida, Oct. 9, 2024.

CIRA | NOAA | Via Reuters

The National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Milton has made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida as a Category 3 storm on Wednesday evening.

This is a breaking news story. CNBC’s previous story is below.

Several tornadoes and heavy rain hit south-central Florida on Wednesday afternoon as residents rushed to make last-minute preparations for Hurricane Milton. The storm is currently a Category 4 hurricane but is “growing in size” as it approaches the state’s west coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The NHC said Monday that Milton had intensified into a Category 5 storm, but by Wednesday morning it had dropped down to a Category 4, with sustained winds of up to 155 mph. The NHC said the storm will remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida peninsula.

A storm surge warning is in effect for the central to southern west coast of Florida, including Tampa. The NHC warning indicates “a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.”

As of 2 p.m. Wednesday, the storm was about 150 miles southwest of the Tampa metropolitan area and moving northeast at about 16 mph, with sustained winds of 130 mph. The hurricane will likely make landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, according to the NHC.

Vehicles move through a partially flooded street in Dunedin, Florida, ahead of Hurricane Milton’s expected landfall tonight, Oct. 9, 2024.

Bryan R. Smith | AFP | Getty Images

Milton rapidly intensified as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico due to the heat of the gulf’s surface waters. When a storm forms into a hurricane it absorbs energy from the heat in surface waters and, with 2024 on track to have the warmest average global air temperature on record, Milton’s ability to grow stronger in such a short amount of time was “a near-certainty,” according to physical oceanographer Gregory Foltz at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Millions of people in 15 counties are under mandatory evacuation orders. The Federal Emergency Management Agency wrote Wednesday: “Your life is at serious risk if you don’t take action immediately — every second counts.”

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said people near the coast still have time to evacuate inland and recommended they head to one of the 149 general population shelters open throughout the state.

“The current total shelter population is just 31,000 individuals. We have room in those shelters for a total population of almost 200,000 individuals. So there is space available in these shelters,” DeSantis said in a storm briefing Wednesday morning. He said he expects more people to head toward shelters Wednesday afternoon and night.

Rown Williamson secures a gas pump at a Costco store before the arrival of Hurricane Milton on October 08, 2024 in Naples, Florida.

Joe Raedle | Getty Images

DeSantis also said the Florida Highway Patrol has facilitated 106 long-distance fuel tanker escorts to transport close to one million gallons of gasoline into Tampa and other areas.

Gas stations around the state have already run out of fuel as people attempt to either leave the state or have fuel on stock for at-home generators. Around 23% of the state’s 7,900 gas stations are currently without fuel, up from around 17% on Tuesday, according to data from GasBuddy.

FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell recommended Wednesday that Floridians in areas under storm surge watch should still try to evacuate, even if only a few miles inland. “Milton is going to be a deadly and catastrophic storm,” Criswell said in a press briefing.

Criswell also said she will travel to Florida on Wednesday to help with recovery efforts once the storm hits. “I want people to hear from me directly, FEMA is ready,” she said.

The NWS issued a tornado warning Wednesday for most of central and southern Florida, including Miami-Dade County. The warning also includes hail up to a half inch in size and isolated gusts of up to 70 mph.

At 11 a.m., the NHC reported tornadic supercells across southern Florida. The NWS reported a tornado along I-75 near Miami as outer bands of the hurricane moved through the area.

Another tornado was recorded near the Everglades, wetlands on the southern tip of the Florida peninsula.

The rushed preparations for Milton come as Floridians are still recovering from Hurricane Helene, which made landfall Sept. 26. More than 225 people died from the storm and recovery efforts lagged as the storm isolated communities. Helene also highlighted the unpredictability of hurricanes, as the storm transitioned into a tropical storm and still ravaged the inland city of Asheville, North Carolina.

The Justice Department warned Floridians and other consumers Wednesday to watch out for any potential fraud or price-gouging schemes during and following the hurricane. Price gouging is the practice of retailers artificially inflating prices when the retailer’s costs have not increased. Consumers are particularly vulnerable to price gouging during natural disasters, such as hurricanes.

As Tampa prepares for the arrival of Hurricane Milton, a flood barrier is erected around a wastewater facility on October 09, 2024, in Tampa, Florida.

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

The department said people are not required to pay a fee to get disaster relief, and that only scammers will repeatedly push for somebody to pay for services by wire transfer, gift card, payment apps, cryptocurrency or cash.

“Companies are on notice: do not use the hurricane as an excuse to exploit people through illegal behavior,” said Manish Kumar, deputy assistant attorney general of the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division. “The Antitrust Division and its law enforcement partners will act quickly to root out anticompetitive behavior and use every tool available to hold wrongdoers accountable.”

President Joe Biden backed up this sentiment in a hurricane briefing Wednesday, saying, “I’m calling on the airlines and other companies to provide as much service as possible to accommodate evacuations and not to engage in price gouging, to just do it on the level.”

The Department of Transportation told CNBC it is already in talks with airlines around affordability of flights in areas affected by the storm.

Biden said Milton could be the worst storm to hit Florida in over a century and that his administration has already deployed thousands of federal personnel across the Southeast to aid in recovery.

Trump holds Pennsylvania rally at same venue of first assassination attempt, joined by Musk, Vance

Aseem — Sun, 06 Oct 2024 00:26:17 +0000

Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk speaks as Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump reacts during a rally at the site of the July assassination attempt against Trump, in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 5, 2024.

Carlos Barria | Reuters

Former President Donald Trump‘s return to Butler, Pennsylvania, the site of his July 13 assassination attempt, quickly evolved from a commemoration for the tragic shooting into his standard rally format.

Within 20 minutes of his roughly 90-minute speech, Trump turned to attacking Vice President Kamala Harris and calling on allies like Tesla CEO Elon Musk to help make his case for reelection.

“Twelve weeks ago, we all took a bullet for America,” the Republican presidential nominee said at the same venue as the July shooting. “We can’t take another four years like this. We won’t have a country left.”

The Trump campaign billed the event as a way to honor Corey Comperatore, the former firefighter who was killed at the July rally, and the city of Butler, which has been catapulted into national attention since the shooting.

Comperatore’s family attended as featured guests, along with David Dutch, one of the rally attendees who was shot and injured. Ahead of Trump’s headlining remarks, several local Butler officials took the stage to recount their July 13 experiences.

But the Butler rally was not just a ceremony for remembrance.

After roughly 20 minutes of honoring Butler and the rally’s victims, Trump turned to his more standard stump speech.

“Who’s Harris? We can’t find out who she is, because if we do, our country is going to be in big trouble,” Trump said.

With roughly four weeks until the Nov. 5 election, the Butler event marked one of Trump’s last high-profile campaign opportunities to make his case for reelection — in a key swing state with 19 electoral votes no less.

Trump also used the rally to put a spotlight on several new members of his entourage.

Midway through Trump’s speech, Elon Musk came up on stage to laud the former president.

“The true test of someone’s character is how they behave under fire,” Musk said, sporting a black MAGA baseball cap, black blazer and “Occupy Mars” t-shirt.

“As you can see, I’m not just MAGA, I’m Dark MAGA,” the tech billionaire said.

“This is no ordinary election,” he continued. “President Trump must win to preserve the Constitution. He must win to preserve democracy in America.”

Trump is charged with crimes related to his alleged effort to overturn his loss to President Joe Biden in the 2020 election.

Musk publicly endorsed Trump hours after the Butler assassination attempt, but has contributed to Republican candidates and causes for years. Since then, their alliance has grown stronger as Musk helps fundraise for the Trump campaign. Trump has also said he would create a government efficiency commission to audit and cut waste throughout the entire federal government, an idea Musk suggested.

Ohio Sen. JD Vance, who was named Trump’s running mate several days after the Butler shooting, also spoke at the rally.

“What happened right here in Butler is a metaphor for the United States of America,” Vance said. “There is…no defeat we cannot turn into victory.”

Other close Trump allies also gave short introductory speeches including real estate magnate Steve Witkoff, Trump’s son Eric Trump and Republican National Committee co-chair and Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump.

Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk speaks during a rally for Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. president Donald Trump, at the site of the July assassination attempt against Trump, in Butler, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 5, 2024.

Carlos Barria | Reuters

Trump returned to Butler in a very different presidential race compared to his last visit.

On July 13, Trump was still reveling in the disastrous performance of Biden at their June 27 debate, which spurred Democrats’ growing doubt about their candidate’s ability to win a second term.

Since then, Biden has dropped out of the race, Harris has taken the helm of the Democratic ticket and she has begun to erode Trump’s edge.

Trump first announced his plan to return to Butler in July, 13 days after the rally shooting.

Going into Saturday’s rally, the Secret Service said it beefed up its security plan after facing intense scrutiny following the July rally shooting and another assassination attempt against Trump in September.

On Friday, the Secret Service pledged that it had “made comprehensive changes and enhancements” to its communications abilities and resources.

“The former President is receiving heightened protection and we take the responsibility to ensure his safety and security very seriously,” spokesman Anthony Guglielmi said in a statement.

Buttigieg claps back at Elon Musk for false claims about Helene federal response

Aseem — Sat, 05 Oct 2024 02:08:48 +0000

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg spoke directly to Elon Musk Friday on the billionaire’s X platform, part of an effort to counter false conspiracies about federal disaster aid for victims of Hurricane Helene that Musk spread on X, where his follower count stands over 200 million.

“No one is shutting down the airspace and FAA doesn’t block legitimate rescue and recovery flights,” wrote Buttigieg. “If you’re encountering a problem give me a call.”

Buttigieg was replying to a post from Musk that falsely claimed the Federal Aviation Administration was shutting down airspace in the disaster zone and “throttling” flights transporting supplies.

An FAA spokesperson told CNBC, “There are no airspace restrictions in place in North Carolina as rescue efforts continue because of Hurricane Helene. Pilots looking to come into Asheville or Rutherford airports need to reach out to the airport for permission to land. The FAA is working with local authorities to ensure rescue efforts happen safely.”

Musk’s false claim was one of several conspiracies Musk has spread about federal emergency personnel this week, as tens of thousands of people turn to government agencies for disaster relief in states hard-hit by Helene.

“@FEMA is not merely failing to adequately help people in trouble, but is actively blocking citizens who try to help!” Musk said in an apparent text message within his social post.

A spokeswoman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency responded to Musk in a statement to CNBC: “The claims about FEMA confiscating or taking commodities, supplies or resources in North Carolina, Tennessee, or any state impacted by Helene are false,” said public affairs director Jaclyn Rothenberg.

FEMA has deployed Starlinks before to assist in disaster response in places like Guam, Hawaii and Alaska, she noted. In storm-ravaged North Carolina, Starlink units are supporting state and local governments, urban search and rescue and disaster coordination efforts.

Musk has formally endorsed Republican former President Donald Trump, and he has become a mega donor to the GOP in recent years.

On Friday, Trump amplified Musk’s false claims about FEMA and FAA on Trump’s own social media platform, Truth Social, where he posted them without comment to his nearly 8 million followers.

Musk’s SpaceX and its satellite internet service brand Starlink, have previously said that they would send approximately 500 Starlink kits, donated by private individuals and organizations, to help with the Helene recovery efforts. They also made Starlink internet service free for users for 30 days in areas devastated by Helene.

This was after FEMA had previously announced it was dispatching SpaceX’s Starlink terminals to bring internet services to remote areas hit by the storm.

Musk frequently uses X to provoke — but in lashing out at FEMA on Friday, he escalated his battle with the U.S. government.

He has previously threatened to sue the Federal Aviation Administration, attacked the Environmental Protection Agency for penalizing SpaceX, and lashed out at other federal agencies.

Musk’s SpaceX depends upon federal agencies for what amounts to billions of dollars in annual revenue, and his automaker Tesla has handsomely benefitted from federal programs that gave the company a crucial loan, tax breaks and other subsidies and incentives.

People who have suffered loss or damage due to Tropical Storm Helene in designated counties, can apply for government assistance using the FEMA app, which can be downloaded from the Apple Store or Google Play Store, by visiting DisasterAssistance.gov, or by calling 1-800-621-3362.

— NBC’s Cristian Santana contributed reporting

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