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WATCH | Saba Naqvi breaks down the Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir election results

Saba Naqvi discusses the electoral strategies adopted by various players, the saffron party’s electoral resurgence, and more.
| Video Credit:
Camera: Dipesh Arora; Editing: Samson Ronald K.; Produced By: Jinoy Jose P. 

Last week, Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir wrapped up their Assembly elections. The BJP surprised everyone with a hat-trick victory in Haryana, while Kashmir made a statement on issues such as statehood by voting the INDIA bloc to power. Veteran journalist Saba Naqvi digs into the results for Frontline, spotlighting how the BJP, Congress, and local parties fared.

In this video, Naqvi unpacks the game plans each party used to woo voters. She sheds light on how caste still sways ballots and how parties juggle different social groups to win. Naqvi also tracks how these regions’ political sentiments are shifting. She zeroes in on the BJP’s hat-trick in Haryana and how the National Conference (NC)-Congress team scored in Kashmir but stumbled in Jammu. Naqvi ponders what these outcomes mean for the BJP’s standing across India. She also probes how Hindu nationalism continues to power the BJP’s moves in the Hindi belt.

Saba Naqvi is a Delhi based journalist and author of four books who writes on politics and identity issues.

LISTEN | Amit Baruah in conversation with Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami

The CPI (M) leader says this election was the only option for the people of Jammu and Kashmir to express themselves. 
| Video Credit:
Interview by Amit Baruah; Editing by Samson Ronald K.; Produced by: Jinoy Jose P.

In a conversation with senior journalist Amit Baruah, Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami, a veteran CPI(M) leader and MLA from Jammu and Kashmir’s Kulgam, offers a candid and nuanced perspective on the region’s recent Assembly election—the first since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Speaking after securing his fifth term as an MLA, Tarigami paints a complex picture of a populace eager for democratic expression yet constrained by years of political turmoil and centralised control.

He describes the elections as a watershed moment, where citizens across all demographics seized a rare opportunity to voice their concerns through the ballot, breaking a long spell of enforced silence. However, Tarigami’s optimism is tempered with caution as he outlines the challenges ahead: a polarised political landscape, diminished local autonomy, and the delicate balancing act required in dealing with the Central government.

Amit Baruah is a senior journalist.

The Haryana Assembly election in 2024 threw up a historic victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party. For the first time since the State’s formation in 1966, a party has formed a government for a third successive term. This victory marks the BJP’s largest win in the last three Assembly elections. The BJP won 48 of the 90 Assembly seats, while the Congress won 37 seats. The electoral contest was nail-biting and bipolar in terms of vote share, with the two major parties receiving nearly 80 per cent of the votes polled in the election. In terms of vote share, the gap between the BJP and Congress was just 0.8 per cent in favour of the BJP.

It is important to note that in Haryana, the combined vote share of the two major parties had never touched 70 per cent. Even in the 2019 Assembly election, the BJP and the Congress together polled only 64 per cent. What does this number explain? How did the BJP manage to get another term with a bigger share of seats and votes despite facing a palpable anti-incumbency in the State?

The BJP has been ruling the State since 2014. Just before that, in the 2009 Assembly election, the party secured only four seats with 9 per cent of the votes. It won double-digit seats in 1996 only, when it formed an alliance with the Haryana Vikas Party. In that election, the BJP won 11 seats with 9 per cent of the votes. The party has grown remarkably since then in the State, particularly with decisive victories in 2014 and 2019, leveraging caste-based strategies and nationalistic sentiments.

For a long time, the Congress and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) were the two major parties in the State. However, their combined vote share never crossed two-thirds of the total votes, which means that one-third of the electoral support was for the smaller parties and independent candidates. This trend changed in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, when the BJP and the Congress got 87 per cent of the votes. However, in the 2019 Assembly election, this came down to 64 per cent, with the reason for the decline being the BJP. The party lost 22 per cent of the votes within six months. Once again, in the 2024 parliamentary election, both the BJP and the Congress polled 90 per cent of the total votes. In terms of alliances, the NDA and the INDIA bloc together polled 94 per cent of the votes.

From the 2024 Lok Sabha election to the 2024 Assembly election, the BJP and the Congress lost 6 and 4 per cent votes, respectively. However, this time, the two parties polled 40 and 39 per cent votes, respectively (Chart 1). Two parties have never consolidated this large a vote share in any Assembly election in the State.

Three trends

Apart from the vote consolidation, three trends emerge from the chart above: (1) Both the BJP and the Congress have been gaining votes in each Assembly election since 2014. The BJP’s continuous gain has been since 2009. (2) The INLD (and the Jannayak Janta Party), known to be a Jat-supported party, has been in continuous decline, and its vote share has come down to 5 per cent. (3) The space for smaller parties and Independents has been shrinking fast. These small players used to have around 30 per cent of the votes, which has reduced to 16 per cent in this election. However, there are a significant number of Independents whose votes were more than the margin of victory.

With the final numbers showing bipolarity, it is important to look into the reasons behind it.

Also Read | How did the BJP pull off an unexpected win in Haryana?

The central narrative of this election revolves around “kisan [farmer], naujawan [youth], pehelwan [wrestler]”. The farmers’ movement organised one of the biggest protests during the NDA’s second term. The protests, in which 700 farmers lost their lives, led the Narendra Modi government to take back the “three farm laws” through which the government intended to bring reform. Farmers of Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh were key to leading this movement, and in the case of Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, the Jat community participated in a big manner.

As many as 33 per cent of Haryana’s farmers fall under the medium or large category with more than 2 hectares of land. Among them, Jats form the majority. In Sonipat, Devender (35, Dhanak [Lower SC]) and Amit (38, Lohar [Lower OBC]), both auto drivers, said that in their villages, they (the Lower SC and Lower OBC communities) did not have much land of their own and that they worked on the land of Jats. In towns, they said, they were independent, but in rural areas, they had to be economically dependent on Jats. Sometimes the Jats exploited them. “Vo Chaudhary hai aur unki hi chalti hai” (which roughly means, “The writ of the landlords always holds”).

Lack of job opportunities

Among the youth, the main reason for unhappiness against the incumbent government was the lack of job opportunities. Again, this issue is not unique to Haryana. Data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) relating to 2023 (https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/chandigarh/haryana-tops-cmie-unemployment-chart-december-8359324/)indicate that Haryana had the highest unemployment rate in India, exceeding 30 per cent. This built a narrative that the State government was unable to generate/create job opportunities for youths.

The pehelwan movement began last year against the issue of sexual harassment of women wrestlers by the authorities. As a result of this, Brij Bhushan Singh, who was a BJP MP, did not get the ticket in the 2024 parliamentary election.

The“kisan, naujawan, pehelwan” narrative seemed to suggest that a new segment was aligning itself with the Congress. However, it is significant to note that both farmers and wrestlers are essentially representatives of the Jat community. Additionally, a significant proportion of the youth demographic also belongs to this same community. This alignment highlights how the Congress’ appeal was primarily concentrated within specific social groups, rather than genuinely expanding beyond the party’s traditional constituents.

On the other side, BJP leaders used the campaign slogan that during their government, youth had got jobs “bina kharchi, bina parchi” (without paying a bribe and without expecting favouritism).

A notable example of this sentiment emerged during our ground visit in Haryana when a member of the Nai community named Vinod (40) in Panipat told us that one of his brothers got a job in the Haryana Police without spending a paisa. He said it was not possible in the Bhupinder Singh Hooda government. He remarked that during the Hooda government, when they asked for assistance, they were often told: “You can set up a chair anywhere and cut hair, but what will our Jat boys do?”

Congress workers at the Haryana Vijay Sankalp Jansabha, in Julana on October 2.
| Photo Credit:
Manvender Vashist Lav/PTI

The example of Lower SCs and OBCs illustrates the growing rift between the backward and Dalit communities and the Jat community, which has directly benefited the BJP. This can be understood from a data point that shows the changing support base of the BJP and the Congress in the Jat belt since 2009. Bhiwani, Charkhi Dadri, Hisar, Jhajjar, Jind, Panipat, Rohtak, and Sonipat districts have a high concentration of Jats. In these districts, the aggregate share of Balmiki and Dhanak is 41 per cent (Census 2011) of the total SC population.

Chart 2 suggests that the Congress’ support base has come to the point where the party was in 2009, and that its support base has returned in the Assembly election. However, it needs to be noted that the Congress party’s highest vote share was in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, at 51 per cent. The BJP was 7 per cent behind the Congress in the Jat belt. It suggests that despite the kisan, naujawan, and pehelwan movements, the Congress lost its ground in the Jat belt.

Congress’ failure to retain non-Jat votes

Any analysis of the Haryana election will show that the lion’s share of Jats voted for the Congress, but the party failed to retain its support among the non-Jats, thereby losing a significant share (12 per cent, double the State-wise loss) of votes in the Jat belt. Contrary to this, the BJP has been able to mobilise its core support, primarily from the OBC and non-Jat privileged-caste Hindus, which is more evenly distributed. This allowed its vote share to translate more efficiently into Assembly seats. This homogeneous distribution of the BJP’s voter base gave it a strategic advantage, resulting in a higher conversion rate of votes to seats compared with the Congress. Of the 36 seats in the Jat belt, the BJP won 20, while the Congress could manage only 13.

Two decades ago in Haryana, the Congress had leaders such as Bansi Lal from the Vishnoe (Bishnoi) community; Rao Inderjit Singh and Captain Ajay Singh Yadav from among the Ahir community; Bhupinder Hooda, Chaudhary Birender Singh, and Kiran Choudhry from the Jat community; and Kumari Selja and Ashok Tanwar from the SC community—all of whom had a say in party affairs, but this time it was Hooda who dominated.

Also Read | Vinesh Phogat and the Julana dangal

The different movements and the one-sided dominance of Hooda created the buzz that if the Congress government came to power, it would be a Jat dominance (Jatshahi), which reminded the lower sections of society about the exploitation and dominance they had faced in the past. As Vinod (Panipat) said: “Abhi to hamse 10 rupaye lete hai,lekin ye satta me aa gaye to 100 rupaye lene lagenge, aur hame dena padega” (Right now, the auto drivers near Panipat bus stand charge us Rs.10, but if they come to power, we will be forced to pay Rs.100).

It is not that only Jats supported the Congress this time; other castes did too. But the majority of the party’s votes came from Jats, Jatavs (Upper SC), and Muslims. Together, they constitute around 40 per cent of the electorate. On the other hand, the BJP has been using social engineering since 2014 to form a coalition of non-dominant castes. In States such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, and Haryana the BJP did its best to build an ethnic coalition of politically marginalised communities.

The BJP also made a smart move on the Supreme Court’s August verdict on sub-categorisation for SCs and ST. In Haryana, SC voters account for 21 per cent of the electorate, with around 12 per cent belonging to the most vulnerable and deprived sections of the SC community, such as Balmiki and Dhanak. Ahead of the election, when the Supreme Court allowed the subclassification of SCs and STs, to create separate quotas within these groups, the BJP astutely embraced the decision at the State level.

In the previous general election, the Dalit community had largely supported the Congress because Rahul Gandhi’s “Save the Constitution” narrative had resonated strongly among them. However, when the issue of subclassification emerged with the Supreme Court’s decision, the Congress chose to remain silent. This silence cost the party dearly, as the most marginalised sections of the Dalit community felt neglected and abandoned.

Vinesh Phogat celebrates her win as Congress candidate from Julana, in Jind district, on October 8.
| Photo Credit:
Shahbaz Khan/PTI

As a result, these most vulnerable groups, which had earlier backed the Congress, shifted support away from the party, giving the BJP a crucial advantage. The BJP’s ability to address the specific needs of this deprived segment helped it consolidate support and gain momentum in key constituencies where the Congress had previously held sway.

The BJP adopted a mixed strategy to mitigate the impact of anti-incumbency. Prime Minister Modi’s rallies were reduced, and fewer posters featuring him were displayed at the local level. At the State level, several key Ministers, including the Chief Minister, were replaced with new faces before the election. The BJP fielded new candidates in 61 of the 90 constituencies, compared with 2019. This move sent a message to voters that their grievances were being heard and that the party cared about their concerns. And the BJP won 34 of the 61 Assembly seats. In contrast, during the 2019 Assembly election, the BJP won only 18 seats of the same 61 constituencies. Thus, the BJP effectively neutralised the effects of anti-incumbency.

This victory reflects the BJP’s successful narrative to build an ethnic coalition against the politics of dominance of a particular caste. What the Congress needs to do is not to leave its social base but to add some new constituencies to its kitty.

Ashish Ranjan is an election researcher and co-founder of the Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies (DALES). Atul Kumar Pandey is an election researcher.

The BJP hits back sharply to Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge’s allegation of labelling them a “party of terrorists,” alleging that the opposition party has a history of supporting terrorism.

BJP spokesperson Sudhanshu Trivedi condemned Congress for supporting traditional Islamic practices like triple talaq, halala, and hijab, asserting that they are now making baseless accusations against Hindu society, PTI reported.

“This is the design of the urban Naxal mindset that Prime Minister Narendra Modi talks about,” Trivedi said.

Kharge had earlier called the BJP a “party of terrorists”, as he hit back at Modi over his recent remarks that the opposition party was being run by a “gang of urban Naxals”.

Union minister Giriraj Singh claimed that Kharge’s remarks show his reflections on his own party as it was the Congress which always supported terrorists.

Another Union minister, Pralhad Joshi, claimed Kharge “mistakenly” called the BJP a party of terrorists as a slip of tongue.

Taking to X, Joshi said, “It was Sonia Gandhi who shed tears for terrorists who died in Batla House. It was Congress which went soft on Afzal Guru. It was Congress which repealed POTA in 2004. It was their PM Manmohan Singh who shook hands with separatist militants.”

Joshi also said it was under Modi that terrorist activities saw a significant decline.

BJP spokesperson C R Kesavan said Kharge’s comments have exposed Congress’ “prejudiced and toxic mindset and ideology of divide and rule”, similar to that of the colonial British.

“The nation should not forget how the Congress equated terrorism with the Hindu community in 2013. It was no less then a Union minister in the Congress-led UPA government, Sushil Kumar Shinde, who derogatorily and demeaningly talked about Hindu terrorism,” he said.

Earlier, Kharge had also hit out at Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat over his remarks on the condition of minorities in Bangladesh, with party president Mallikarjun Kharge accused him of supporting a party “which wants disunity in the country.”

Kharge said, “You (Bhagwat) are the one who supports the party (BJP) which wants disunity in the country. It starts with changing the Constitution, ending reservation, and then speaking different things about Muslims.”

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in Madhya Pradesh is facing internal crisis over the past few days as many legislators have expressed their dissatisfaction publicly, with someone of them even quitting.

There have been instances of protests and social media outburst, with at least 6 MLAs of ruling party voicing their concerns, indicating growing tensions with the ruling party in Madhya Pradesh.

Deori MLA, Brij Bihari Pateria, send his resignation to the speaker of Madhya Pradesh assembly on Thursday night. Pateria was unhappy over police’s refusal to register an FIR in a snake bite case. Hours later, Pateria withdrew his resignation. He called it a result of “temporary outrage” and said everything is resolved now.

Pateriya was among the 22 Congress MLAs, who had resigned from the party to pull down the 15-month-old Kamal Nath government in March 2020.

He had later joined BJP and retained his Deori Assembly constituency in a by-election a few months later. He was re-elected to the Assembly in the November 2023 Assembly elections. Pateria staged a protest too before resigning and eventually withdrawing his resignation.

MLAs as SP office

Before Pateriya, BJP MLA from Mauganj, Pradeep Patel sparked a row by arriving at the the Superintendent of Police’s office. Patel accused the police of protecting the liquor mafia. He even alleged that he feared to be killed leaving the ruling party in a fix.

BJP MLA from Patan and former minister Ajay Vishnoi took to social media supporting Patel. “Pradeep ji, you have raised the right issue, but what can we do? The entire government is bowing down before liquor contractors,” Vishnoi wrote.

In a similar grievance, former minister and BJP MLA Sanjay Pathak also raised concerns about his safety, claiming his Aadhaar card had been tampered with and suspicious individuals were seen outside his residences in Jabalpur, Katni, and Bhopal. He also said that he feared for his life.

“I feel my life is in danger. This is not just about Aadhaar tampering-it’s a deep conspiracy,” said Mr Pathak. Gadhakota MLA and former minister, Gopal Bhargava, questioned whether they were even entitled to burn Ravana in the current situation.

The BJP has downplayed these incidents.” In any family, discussions happen among members. BJP operates with discipline, and everything is under control. Pateria Ji clarified in one minute that all is well,” state BJP President VD Sharma was quoted as saying in a report in NDTV.

The opposition Congress has been quick to call it an internal fight within the ruling party. “Earlier, when we raised these issues, VD Sharma would accuse us of defaming the BJP. Now, a dozen of their MLAs are raising the same concerns. What will they say now?” asked senior congress leader Mukesh Nayak.

BJP scripted landslide victory against the Congress in the 2023 Madhya Pradesh assembly elections . The saffron party won 163 seats in the House. The Congress secured a meagre 66 seats. Mohan Yadav was sworn in as Chief Minister as Shivraj Singh Chouhan was sent to centre and is now Union Agriculture Minister.

After former US President Donlad Trump praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his response to perceived threats to India’s national security, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Thursday took a jibe at the previous Congress-led UPA government for its “insipid response” during the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks.

In a podcast, Trump calling PM Modi his “friend”, “the nicest human being”, and a “total killer” when “somebody” threatens India.

Sharing the viral clip of Trump at the Flagrant podcast, BJP’s official X handle compared PM Modi’s aggressive retaliation with UPA’s “insipid response” to the terror attack in Mumbai.

“Former American President Donald Trump, in the Flagrant podcast, describes Prime Minister Modi as the nicest human being but also a total killer,” BJP said in the post.

BJP, in the post quoted Trump as saying that Modi took him by surprise with his threat of aggressive retaliation against Pakistan when he said we would handle them; “India has defeated them for hundreds of years.”

“Compare this to Congress-led UPA’s insipid response in the wake of the horrific terror attack in Mumbai,” the saffron party quipped.

Donald Trump praises PM Modi at Flagrant podcast

In the podcast hosted by Andrew Schulz and Akash Singh, Trump also described PM Modi’s change in demeanour in response to perceived threats and said that while the Prime Minister is the nicest, he can also be a total killer.

While speaking about his assessment of world leaders on the podcast, Trump said, “Modi (India), he’s a friend of mine and also the nicest human being. On the outside, he looks like he’s your father. He is the nicest and a total killer.”

Trump also said that before Narendra Modi assumed office as India’s Prime Minister in 2014, there was instability due to frequent changes in the leadership.

Recalling the iconic “Howdy, Modi” of 2019, Trump said, “They did a thing called Howdy, Modi in Houston, Texas. It was me and him and it was beautiful. It was a gathering of around 80,000 people and it felt like crazy. We were walking about. Today, maybe I won’t be able to do something like that.”

He also claimed that he shares a “very good relationship” with Narendra Modi.

Lavishing high praise on PM Modi, Trump described as a leader who is tough in dealing with India’s adversaries when required. He then imitated PM Modi’s remarks and his tough tone and tenor on the question of dealing with the western neighbour who has been sponsoring cross-border terrorism.

Without directly naming Pakistan, Trump said, “We have a very good relationship. He is the nicest human being, but we had a couple of occasions where somebody was threatening India, and I told Modi, let me help as I am very good with those people. To which he (Modi) aggressively responded, ‘I do it, I will handle it and would do anything necessary. We have defeated them for hundreds of years.’ And I said, whoa, what just happened there.”

Trump spoke about his relationship with PM Modi around the 37-minute mark of the 88-minute-long interview.

Defying all exit polls as well as election pundits, the BJP wrested Haryana for the third consecutive time—and entirely on its own. It secured a simple majority, winning 48 seats in the 90-member Assembly.

The outcome shows that the election was largely a bipolar one, with both national parties securing 79.03 per cent of the vote share between themselves and around 11.64 per cent going to independent candidates. The regional parties were more or less sidelined in this election.

The Congress, which was expected to win due to a range of reasons, including a perceived anti-incumbency, secured 37 seats, 9 less than the simple majority required to form the government. If it was some solace, the party secured six more seats than its 2019 tally and bettered its vote share by 12 percentage points.

Politically, the results have been a major setback to former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, under whose leadership the election was fought. The reasons why the Congress could not make a mark are manifold. Among them are the Congress’ failure to assess the extent of anti-incumbency, the infighting in the party, the high command’s interference in candidate selection that possibly led to poor picks, the party’s obduracy to go it alone sans alliances, and just plain hubris. It is likely that the party was overconfident of a victory after it won 5 of the State’s 10 seats in the Lok Sabha election. At the time, it was in an alliance with the AAP and the Left. In the Assembly polls, however, it preferred to stand on its own, save for a seat-sharing arrangement with the CPI(M) for the Bhiwani seat.

Close contest between national parties

The contest between the two national parties was close, with the BJP having secured 39.94 per cent of the vote share and the Congress 39.09 per cent. In Ucchana Kalan where the BJP candidate narrowly defeated former Hisar MP Brajendra Singh, the victory margin was as small as 32 votes. The highest margin, of over 98,000 votes, was secured by the Congress’ Mamman Khan who won the Ferozepur Jhirka seat with a total of 1,30,497 votes. Thirteen women were elected this time: five from the BJP, seven from the Congress and one Independent.

Also Read | BJP scores hat-trick in Haryana, NC-Congress combine sweeps Jammu and Kashmir

The vote share of both parties suggests that held on to their support base and also added a bit more, edging out the regional parties. The BJP bettered its 2019 vote share by 2.94 per cent. Both parties improved their vote shares considerably at the expense of regional parties such as the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and even the Aam Aadmi Party.

Congress, BJP gain at JJP’s expense

The JJP, as Frontline had written earlier, was reduced to a cipher, failing to win even a single seat. Its alliance with the Aazad Samaj Party did not yield any dividends. Its vote share fell to less than 1 per cent from 14.84 per cent in 2019, when it had won 10 seats and formed the government along with the BJP. The gains of the Congress and partly of the BJP seem to have come entirely at the expense of the JJP. Dushyant Chautala, the JJP chief, came a poor fifth in Ucchana Kalan.

The INLD too was confined to two seats in Sirsa but in contrast to its breakaway party, the JJP, it bettered its vote share. The INLD, which had an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), secured 5.96 per cent of the vote share, denting the Jat-Dalit vote base to an extent that otherwise would have benefitted the Congress. Abhay Chautala, the INLD national general secretary, lost the Ellenabad seat to the Congress’ Bharat Beniwal by over 14,000 votes. Chautala had been winning this seat from 2010 onwards.

On the whole, the prominent winners include the outgoing Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Olympian Vinesh Phogat, Aditya Surjewala, Shruti Choudhry, Jindal Group chairperson Savitri Jindal, Arjun Chautala, and outgoing Home Minister Anil Vij. Vij retained the Ambala Cantt seat for the fourth time defeating his nearest rival Chitra Sarwara, a Congress rebel who contested as an Independent, by 7,277 votes. It is possible that had there been no rebel candidate, the results would have swung in favour of the Congress. The official Congress candidate, who got slightly over 14,000 votes, forfeited his security deposit.

A total of 17 sitting Congress candidates lost in the election. Prominent among those who lost across parties include Abhay Chautala, Dushyant Chautala, Bhavya Bishnoi, outgoing Haryana Speaker Gian Chand Gupta, Captain Abhimanyu, and O.P. Dhankar. Five outgoing Ministers lost in this election, including prominent Jat leaders in the BJP such as Captain Abhimanyu and O.P. Dhankar.

Hooda has much to answer for

The outcome in Haryana was a surprise even for the BJP. It could not have bargained for a better result. As for the Congress, its State leadership under Hooda has a lot to answer for. Sources said that some five candidates who were picks of the Congress high command lost. The expected Jat-Dalit consolidation also did not take place to the desired extent in favour of the Congress as this vote got diversified among other parties, especially the INLD-BSP which together secured a vote share of 6.96 per cent.

It also cannot be said that the BJP got most of the non-Jat vote in the State. It has been argued that some of its prominent Jat candidates like O.P. Dhankar or Captain Abhimanyu would not have lost had they received the full backing of the non-Jat votes in their respective constituencies.

Also Read | Haryana: Caste as the swing factor

Likewise, the defeat of almost all the sitting Ministers barring Chief Minister Saini needs explanation. They would have won if all it took was smart social engineering in the nature of a non-Jat OBC consolidation behind the BJP. Similarly, it cannot be said that the Congress secured only the votes of the Jats or that the Dalits moved away from the party because Ambala MP Kumari Selja was sidelined. Of the 17 reserved constituencies, the Congress won in 9 and the BJP in 8.

In Ambala, Selja’s own Lok Sabha constituency, the Congress won all the segments barring the Ambala Cantt seat. It lost this seat only because of a rebel Congress candidate. But this candidate’s father, who was the official Congress candidate from Ambala city, won.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the INDIA bloc as a whole had secured 47.61 per cent of the vote share, with the Congress alone getting 43.67 per cent. In contrast, the BJP secured 46.11 per cent on its own, without any alliance. The Congress was perhaps optimistic because it had secured a lead in 46 Assembly segments compared to the BJP’s 44. But then, overconfidence always has a price.