BJP in UP – TheNewsHub https://thenewshub.in Thu, 21 Nov 2024 11:57:58 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1 Yogi’s mid-term test in Uttar Pradesh https://thenewshub.in/2024/11/21/yogis-mid-term-test-in-uttar-pradesh/ https://thenewshub.in/2024/11/21/yogis-mid-term-test-in-uttar-pradesh/?noamp=mobile#respond Thu, 21 Nov 2024 11:57:58 +0000 https://thenewshub.in/2024/11/21/yogis-mid-term-test-in-uttar-pradesh/

The just-concluded byelections in nine Assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh have attracted unusual media attention. This could perhaps be attributed to the fact that many see the byelections as a referendum on the future of Chief Minister Adityanath, whom many in the BJP consider the most popular leader after Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The outcome will also determine whether the 2024 Lok Sabha result, which saw the Samajwadi Party (SP) rising as a force to reckon with once again in Uttar Pradesh, marked a permanent shift in the State’s politics.

Political analyst Sharat Pradhan, who has followed Uttar Pradesh politics closely and co-authored the book Yogi Adityanath: Religion, Politics and Power, The Untold Story, told Frontline that no byelection has ever drawn as much attention from the ruling dispensation as these elections have.

“Thanks to Adityanath, these byelections have become a matter of prestige for both the BJP and the opposition, which is represented largely by the SP. The reason is not far to seek: BJP bigwigs in Delhi are believed to have linked Adityanath’s future to the byelections outcome. The Modi-Shah duo is known to have held him responsible for the party’s poor show in the Lok Sabha election, which left the BJP relegated to the number-two position in the country’s most populous State. Amit Shah is believed to have always perceived Adityanath as the biggest obstacle in the way of realising his dream of emerging as Modi’s ‘rightful’ successor, and BJP leaders in Delhi seemed quite inclined to move him out of Lucknow. But Adityanath managed to save his skin by seeking the good offices of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat. It is widely believed that the final deal was that he would be given another chance to prove himself in the byelections,” Pradhan said. No wonder Adityanath moved heaven and earth to project himself as the “biggest Hindu Hriday Samrat”, he remarked.

Pradhan also pointed out that in the 2022 Assembly election, the BJP won only three of the 10 seats where byelections became necessary (byelections were held in nine of them), and its allies won two. The SP, on the other hand, had won five.

Also Read | Can the BJP recover in Uttar Pradesh?

Adityanath was indeed the most visible Chief Minister during the campaign for the byelections. No matter what his equations are with the party bosses in Delhi, the BJP clearly cannot afford to ignore him. He campaigned extensively in a number of NDA-ruled States, particularly where the chips were down for the saffron alliance, and his usual polarising tactics were on full display. In Maharashtra, where he addressed 11 public meetings, his “batenge toh katenge” (divided we fall) slogan aimed at consolidating Hindu votes raised hackles not only among the opposition parties but even within the BJP. In Jharkhand too, where he addressed 13 rallies, he stirred up a controversy with his provocative statements.

The spotlight, however, is on Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 Members of Parliament (MPs) to the Lok Sabha, with the outcome expected to impact the political future of not only Adityanath but also that of his party.

A security official checks a voter at a polling booth in Sisamau, Kanpur district, on November 20.
| Photo Credit:
PTI

Adityanath addressed 13 election rallies and held two roadshows—an unusual effort for just nine Assembly seats in a State with 403, especially since no byelection was announced for the Milkipur Assembly segment of Ayodhya. This seat fell vacant after Samajwadi Party MLA Awadhesh Prasad won the Ayodhya Lok Sabha seat, delivering a significant jolt to the BJP.

It was also not as if the outcome would impact the government’s majority in the Assembly, where the BJP had 255 members. The Congress had just two seats and the SP was a distant second with 105. Yet, the byelection outcome was expected to have a ripple effect for the State’s politics.

The Congress chose not to field candidates against the SP after seat-sharing talks fell through, making it a direct BJP versus SP contest. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party fielded candidates in all nine seats. Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) tried its luck in three seats including Ghaziabad, which incidentally had the maximum number of candidates—14.

Blame on party leadership

The SP-Congress alliance walked away with 44 seats in the recent Lok Sabha election (the SP got 37; the Congress, seven). The saffron party got 33, marking a dramatic decline from the 71 seats it won in 2014 and 62 in 2019. Modi’s third term was robbed of the glow of the brute majority that marked his previous terms, making the government dependent on support from the Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal (United). Soon, a blame game followed with some pointing fingers at the party’s central leadership, which had apparently chosen the candidates.

“Adityanath’s hands were tied,” went the refrain as there were whispers of an intense tug of war between the Chief Minister and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who had allegedly thrown his weight behind some rebel State leaders. Though the party leadership dismissed all this as rumour-mongering, Adityanath reportedly faced an internal rebellion for months after the Lok Sabha results were out. But he got a free hand in picking candidates for the byelections and in the campaigning.

In August, he deployed 30 Ministers and 15 other senior party leaders as “caretakers” in the poll-bound seats and assigned cluster-wise responsibilities to them. The party organised “gram chaupals” for last-mile connection with the voters. Still betting on Hindu consolidation and the “Ayodhya effect”, it organised “Ayodhya Deepotsava” on October 30, lighting 25 lakh diyas along the Saryu river.

The seats where byelections were held were Ghaziabad in the National Capital Region, Sisamau in Kanpur, Meerapur in Muzaffarnagar, Phulpur in Prayagraj, Karhal in Mainpuri, Khair in Aligarh, Katehari in Ambedkar Nagar, Majhawan in Mirzapur, and Kundarki in Moradabad. Eight of these seats fell vacant as the sitting legislators got elected as MPs.

Samajwadi Party MP Dimple Yadav with party candidate Naseem Solanki during a roadshow in Sisamau on November 18. The seat fell vacant after the candidate’s husband, Irfan Solanki, was convicted in a criminal case earlier this year.

Samajwadi Party MP Dimple Yadav with party candidate Naseem Solanki during a roadshow in Sisamau on November 18. The seat fell vacant after the candidate’s husband, Irfan Solanki, was convicted in a criminal case earlier this year.
| Photo Credit:
PTI

The SP won four of these in 2022—Karhal, Katehari, Kundarki and Sisamu; the BJP won Ghaziabad, Phulpur and Khair, and its ally NISHAD Party won Majhawan. Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which had won Meerapur, is now with the NDA. So the NDA has to win at least five of the nine seats if it wants to claim to have retained all its seats.

A byelection for the Sisamau Assembly seat became a necessity after Irfan Solanki, the SP MLA, was convicted in a criminal case.

The BJP fielded candidates in eight seats, leaving one for its ally RLD. Adityanath has often faced criticism for allegedly ignoring Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Dalits, but this time he tried to counter the SP’s PDA pitch─pichchda (OBC), Dalit (Scheduled Castes), and alpsankhyak (minority). The BJP fielded four OBC and one Dalit candidate in the byelections, a move that also probably marked an attempt to silence dissenters within the party and create a parallel OBC leadership within the State unit.

Also Read | Why the BJP suffered a shocking defeat in Faizabad, the home of the Ram Mandir

This time, the BJP also depended on party veterans and their kin to win. Former MP Rajveer Diler’s son Surendra Diler contested from Khair and former MLA Deepak Patel (whose mother was a former MP) from Phulpur. In Katehari, the BJP fielded three-term MLA and former BSP leader Dharmraj Nishad.

Future strategies

The Assembly byelection outcome will indicate whether the BJP will change its course ahead of the 2027 Assembly election in the State, when it will seek a third straight term. It will also determine whether the party will stick to Adityanath as its chief ministerial face.

Political commentator and author Rasheed Kidwai told Frontline that the byelections were “a litmus test for Chief Minister Adityanath and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav”. “If the BJP fails to get six seats in the byelections, the clamour for Adityanath’s removal, currently spearheaded by Keshav Prasad Maurya, will continue. Behind the scenes, Adityanath also faces stiff opposition from a section of the BJP at the national level that views him as Modi’s possible successor in 2029 or earlier. According to this school of thought, if Adityanath retains Uttar Pradesh in 2027 and gets a third term as chief minister in the country’s most populous and politically significant State, his claim as Modi’s successor would become substantially stronger,” Kidwai said.

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Was the Bahraich communal flare-up motivated? https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/24/was-the-bahraich-communal-flare-up-motivated/ https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/24/was-the-bahraich-communal-flare-up-motivated/?noamp=mobile#respond Thu, 24 Oct 2024 13:45:53 +0000 https://thenewshub.in/2024/10/24/was-the-bahraich-communal-flare-up-motivated/

Yogi Adityanath-ruled Uttar Pradesh is witnessing a political row over another possible instance of bulldozer force a month before the byelection, scheduled for nine Assembly seats in the State on November 13.

On October 13, communal clashes in the Maharajganj area of Bahraich district left one person, identified as Ram Gopal Mishra, dead and several wounded. The police have arrested over 80 accused persons, mostly Muslims, while several young men have reportedly fled the area fearing police action.

The accused have been booked under sections of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, including 121 (voluntarily causing hurt or grievous hurt to deter public servant from his duty), 132 (assault or criminal force to deter public servant from discharge of his duty), 309 (robbery) and 191 (every member of an unlawful assembly guilty of offence committed in prosecution of common object).

But opposition leaders have condemned the riots as “pre-planned,” alleging that the BJP is deliberately engineering communal tensions to sway the upcoming November election.

Also Read | India’s bulldozer raj: Over 1,50,000 homes razed, 7,38,000 left homeless in two years

In the immediate aftermath of the violence, the Public Works Department (PWD) declared the Kundasar-Mahasi-Nanpara road—the focal point of the disturbances—as a major district road. Between October 17 and October 23, notices were issued to 23 houses and shops owners in the area, with a striking 20 from the Muslim community.

The notices mandated the removal of illegal constructions within three days, citing regulations that prohibit structures within 60 feet of the road’s centre without prior approval. Though the PWD notices gave three days time, the affected families have got relief from the Allahabad High Court.

Meanwhile, the Adityanath government’s action is being seen as part of his larger politics wherein bulldozers symbolise his communal aggression. Ever since Adityanath became Chief Minister, the State has witnessed liberal use of police encounters and demolition drives against alleged criminals from the Muslim community. No wonder, bulldozers were made the engine of his electoral campaign in the run-up to the 2022 State Assembly election.

But the row over the intended use of bulldozers in Bahraich has taken an intriguing turn after a BJP MLA filed an FIR against members of his own party, accusing them of inciting communal violence during the Durga idol immersion on October 13.

This unprecedented move ahead of Assembly byelection has brought the ruling party under the scanner. Javed Ali Khan, a Samajwadi Party (SP) Rajya Sabha MP, lambasted the State government for the communal flare-up. “Since the bypolls are round the corner, the ruling party is completely relying on Hindu-Muslim polarisation. The BJP-led State government has abdicated its responsibilities completely,” Khan told Frontline, adding that, “A riot is always planned and organised. In Bahraich too, the rioters were deputed whereas the local people have acted very responsibly.”

Locals in the region vacated their shops after the Public Works Department pasted notices on several properties asking them to remove any illegal construction and warning of action, in the violence-hit Maharajganj area of Bahraich, Uttar Pradesh on October 19, 2024.
| Photo Credit:
PTI

Khan referred to a viral video in which two accused persons, Prem Kumar Mishra and Saburi Mishra, purportedly claimed that violence in Bahraich was “sponsored”. They confessed to having taken part in it. Both of them were later arrested. Earlier, the Bahraich Superintendent of Police Vrinda Shukla had termed the claims made in the video clip as the “rambling of drunk men”.

“Shame on BJP’s politics and its hunger for power,” Akhilesh Yadav, the SP supremo and former Chief Minister, said in a video appearance on social media as he accused the ruling party of conspiring to incite riots. “The BJP has lost its face in the wake of new revelations,” he said, referring to BJP MLA Sureshwar Singh’s FIR.

Singh’s FIR incidentally names BJP workers, including Aarpit Srivastava, the president of the BJP youth wing, Anuj Singh Raikwar, and Shubham Mishra. The FIR accuses them of violent acts such as rioting, stone-pelting, and attempted murder. It details the violent protests surrounding the deceased Ram Gopal Mishra, during which Singh and his associates were reportedly attacked with stones and faced gunfire.

The role of electronic media

On October 23, Singh clarified his position at a press conference held at his residence. “It was only after the case was registered that I learned Arpit Srivastava is the city president of the BJP’s youth wing. Beyond that, I do not believe anyone from the BJP was involved,” he stated. “I have made it clear that filing a case does not equate to someone being guilty. There are CCTV cameras at the incident location. Investigators will review the footage, and appropriate action will be taken against anyone found guilty, including those who fired shots or threw stones.”

Also Read | Uttar Pradesh’s halal branding ban: Strategy to subjugate Muslims?

Notably, the role of electronic media has also come under scrutiny for adding fuel to the communal fire. Several TV channels and media outlets claimed that Ram Gopal Mishra was allegedly brutalised before he was killed, quoting a purported postmortem report. The police have rejected such claims. Without referring to media reports, the Bahraich police wrote on social media that the misleading claims were aimed at disturbing communal harmony.

On October 21, the Allahabad High Court granted relief to individuals served with demolition notices for alleged illegal structures, extending the deadline for filing responses by 15 days. This decision followed a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) filed by the Association for Protection of Civil Rights, represented by its Vice President for UP East, Sayed Mehfuzur Rehman. The petition challenged the notices issued in the Mahsi area of Bahraich district, where recent violence occurred amid claims that the UP government intends to demolish properties belonging to those allegedly involved in the unrest. The case is scheduled for its next hearing on November 4.

On October 22, the Supreme Court indirectly warned the Adityanath government regarding potential bulldozer action. The court emphasised that it is the State government’s “choice” to risk contravening its directives. However, the court clarified that it would not intervene if the structures in question are deemed illegal.

Previously, on October 1, the Supreme Court had reserved judgment on petitions challenging the demolition of homes as a punitive measure, a practice commonly referred to as “bulldozer justice”. A bench of Justices B.R. Gavai and K.V. Viswanathan clarified that demolitions cannot occur solely because an individual is an accused or convicted criminal. During the hearings, the bench discussed guidelines to prevent the misuse of local laws regarding demolition, ensuring due process is followed. They announced plans to issue “pan-India guidelines” that will apply equally to all communities.

“Of late, the higher judiciary has sent a positive signal, we are hopeful that it will discourage the BJP’s ‘bulldozer’ politics in the days to come,” said Javed Ali Khan.

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