The Haryana Assembly election in 2024 threw up a historic victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party. For the first time since the State’s formation in 1966, a party has formed a government for a third successive term. This victory marks the BJP’s largest win in the last three Assembly elections. The BJP won 48 of the 90 Assembly seats, while the Congress won 37 seats. The electoral contest was nail-biting and bipolar in terms of vote share, with the two major parties receiving nearly 80 per cent of the votes polled in the election. In terms of vote share, the gap between the BJP and Congress was just 0.8 per cent in favour of the BJP.

It is important to note that in Haryana, the combined vote share of the two major parties had never touched 70 per cent. Even in the 2019 Assembly election, the BJP and the Congress together polled only 64 per cent. What does this number explain? How did the BJP manage to get another term with a bigger share of seats and votes despite facing a palpable anti-incumbency in the State?

The BJP has been ruling the State since 2014. Just before that, in the 2009 Assembly election, the party secured only four seats with 9 per cent of the votes. It won double-digit seats in 1996 only, when it formed an alliance with the Haryana Vikas Party. In that election, the BJP won 11 seats with 9 per cent of the votes. The party has grown remarkably since then in the State, particularly with decisive victories in 2014 and 2019, leveraging caste-based strategies and nationalistic sentiments.

For a long time, the Congress and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) were the two major parties in the State. However, their combined vote share never crossed two-thirds of the total votes, which means that one-third of the electoral support was for the smaller parties and independent candidates. This trend changed in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, when the BJP and the Congress got 87 per cent of the votes. However, in the 2019 Assembly election, this came down to 64 per cent, with the reason for the decline being the BJP. The party lost 22 per cent of the votes within six months. Once again, in the 2024 parliamentary election, both the BJP and the Congress polled 90 per cent of the total votes. In terms of alliances, the NDA and the INDIA bloc together polled 94 per cent of the votes.

From the 2024 Lok Sabha election to the 2024 Assembly election, the BJP and the Congress lost 6 and 4 per cent votes, respectively. However, this time, the two parties polled 40 and 39 per cent votes, respectively (Chart 1). Two parties have never consolidated this large a vote share in any Assembly election in the State.

Three trends

Apart from the vote consolidation, three trends emerge from the chart above: (1) Both the BJP and the Congress have been gaining votes in each Assembly election since 2014. The BJP’s continuous gain has been since 2009. (2) The INLD (and the Jannayak Janta Party), known to be a Jat-supported party, has been in continuous decline, and its vote share has come down to 5 per cent. (3) The space for smaller parties and Independents has been shrinking fast. These small players used to have around 30 per cent of the votes, which has reduced to 16 per cent in this election. However, there are a significant number of Independents whose votes were more than the margin of victory.

With the final numbers showing bipolarity, it is important to look into the reasons behind it.

Also Read | How did the BJP pull off an unexpected win in Haryana?

The central narrative of this election revolves around “kisan [farmer], naujawan [youth], pehelwan [wrestler]”. The farmers’ movement organised one of the biggest protests during the NDA’s second term. The protests, in which 700 farmers lost their lives, led the Narendra Modi government to take back the “three farm laws” through which the government intended to bring reform. Farmers of Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh were key to leading this movement, and in the case of Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, the Jat community participated in a big manner.

As many as 33 per cent of Haryana’s farmers fall under the medium or large category with more than 2 hectares of land. Among them, Jats form the majority. In Sonipat, Devender (35, Dhanak [Lower SC]) and Amit (38, Lohar [Lower OBC]), both auto drivers, said that in their villages, they (the Lower SC and Lower OBC communities) did not have much land of their own and that they worked on the land of Jats. In towns, they said, they were independent, but in rural areas, they had to be economically dependent on Jats. Sometimes the Jats exploited them. “Vo Chaudhary hai aur unki hi chalti hai” (which roughly means, “The writ of the landlords always holds”).

Lack of job opportunities

Among the youth, the main reason for unhappiness against the incumbent government was the lack of job opportunities. Again, this issue is not unique to Haryana. Data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) relating to 2023 (https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/chandigarh/haryana-tops-cmie-unemployment-chart-december-8359324/)indicate that Haryana had the highest unemployment rate in India, exceeding 30 per cent. This built a narrative that the State government was unable to generate/create job opportunities for youths.

The pehelwan movement began last year against the issue of sexual harassment of women wrestlers by the authorities. As a result of this, Brij Bhushan Singh, who was a BJP MP, did not get the ticket in the 2024 parliamentary election.

The“kisan, naujawan, pehelwan” narrative seemed to suggest that a new segment was aligning itself with the Congress. However, it is significant to note that both farmers and wrestlers are essentially representatives of the Jat community. Additionally, a significant proportion of the youth demographic also belongs to this same community. This alignment highlights how the Congress’ appeal was primarily concentrated within specific social groups, rather than genuinely expanding beyond the party’s traditional constituents.

On the other side, BJP leaders used the campaign slogan that during their government, youth had got jobs “bina kharchi, bina parchi” (without paying a bribe and without expecting favouritism).

A notable example of this sentiment emerged during our ground visit in Haryana when a member of the Nai community named Vinod (40) in Panipat told us that one of his brothers got a job in the Haryana Police without spending a paisa. He said it was not possible in the Bhupinder Singh Hooda government. He remarked that during the Hooda government, when they asked for assistance, they were often told: “You can set up a chair anywhere and cut hair, but what will our Jat boys do?”

The example of Lower SCs and OBCs illustrates the growing rift between the backward and Dalit communities and the Jat community, which has directly benefited the BJP. This can be understood from a data point that shows the changing support base of the BJP and the Congress in the Jat belt since 2009. Bhiwani, Charkhi Dadri, Hisar, Jhajjar, Jind, Panipat, Rohtak, and Sonipat districts have a high concentration of Jats. In these districts, the aggregate share of Balmiki and Dhanak is 41 per cent (Census 2011) of the total SC population.

Chart 2 suggests that the Congress’ support base has come to the point where the party was in 2009, and that its support base has returned in the Assembly election. However, it needs to be noted that the Congress party’s highest vote share was in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, at 51 per cent. The BJP was 7 per cent behind the Congress in the Jat belt. It suggests that despite the kisan, naujawan, and pehelwan movements, the Congress lost its ground in the Jat belt.

Congress’ failure to retain non-Jat votes

Any analysis of the Haryana election will show that the lion’s share of Jats voted for the Congress, but the party failed to retain its support among the non-Jats, thereby losing a significant share (12 per cent, double the State-wise loss) of votes in the Jat belt. Contrary to this, the BJP has been able to mobilise its core support, primarily from the OBC and non-Jat privileged-caste Hindus, which is more evenly distributed. This allowed its vote share to translate more efficiently into Assembly seats. This homogeneous distribution of the BJP’s voter base gave it a strategic advantage, resulting in a higher conversion rate of votes to seats compared with the Congress. Of the 36 seats in the Jat belt, the BJP won 20, while the Congress could manage only 13.

Two decades ago in Haryana, the Congress had leaders such as Bansi Lal from the Vishnoe (Bishnoi) community; Rao Inderjit Singh and Captain Ajay Singh Yadav from among the Ahir community; Bhupinder Hooda, Chaudhary Birender Singh, and Kiran Choudhry from the Jat community; and Kumari Selja and Ashok Tanwar from the SC community—all of whom had a say in party affairs, but this time it was Hooda who dominated.

Also Read | Vinesh Phogat and the Julana dangal

The different movements and the one-sided dominance of Hooda created the buzz that if the Congress government came to power, it would be a Jat dominance (Jatshahi), which reminded the lower sections of society about the exploitation and dominance they had faced in the past. As Vinod (Panipat) said: “Abhi to hamse 10 rupaye lete hai,lekin ye satta me aa gaye to 100 rupaye lene lagenge, aur hame dena padega” (Right now, the auto drivers near Panipat bus stand charge us Rs.10, but if they come to power, we will be forced to pay Rs.100).

It is not that only Jats supported the Congress this time; other castes did too. But the majority of the party’s votes came from Jats, Jatavs (Upper SC), and Muslims. Together, they constitute around 40 per cent of the electorate. On the other hand, the BJP has been using social engineering since 2014 to form a coalition of non-dominant castes. In States such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, and Haryana the BJP did its best to build an ethnic coalition of politically marginalised communities.

The BJP also made a smart move on the Supreme Court’s August verdict on sub-categorisation for SCs and ST. In Haryana, SC voters account for 21 per cent of the electorate, with around 12 per cent belonging to the most vulnerable and deprived sections of the SC community, such as Balmiki and Dhanak. Ahead of the election, when the Supreme Court allowed the subclassification of SCs and STs, to create separate quotas within these groups, the BJP astutely embraced the decision at the State level.

In the previous general election, the Dalit community had largely supported the Congress because Rahul Gandhi’s “Save the Constitution” narrative had resonated strongly among them. However, when the issue of subclassification emerged with the Supreme Court’s decision, the Congress chose to remain silent. This silence cost the party dearly, as the most marginalised sections of the Dalit community felt neglected and abandoned.

As a result, these most vulnerable groups, which had earlier backed the Congress, shifted support away from the party, giving the BJP a crucial advantage. The BJP’s ability to address the specific needs of this deprived segment helped it consolidate support and gain momentum in key constituencies where the Congress had previously held sway.

The BJP adopted a mixed strategy to mitigate the impact of anti-incumbency. Prime Minister Modi’s rallies were reduced, and fewer posters featuring him were displayed at the local level. At the State level, several key Ministers, including the Chief Minister, were replaced with new faces before the election. The BJP fielded new candidates in 61 of the 90 constituencies, compared with 2019. This move sent a message to voters that their grievances were being heard and that the party cared about their concerns. And the BJP won 34 of the 61 Assembly seats. In contrast, during the 2019 Assembly election, the BJP won only 18 seats of the same 61 constituencies. Thus, the BJP effectively neutralised the effects of anti-incumbency.

This victory reflects the BJP’s successful narrative to build an ethnic coalition against the politics of dominance of a particular caste. What the Congress needs to do is not to leave its social base but to add some new constituencies to its kitty.

Ashish Ranjan is an election researcher and co-founder of the Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies (DALES). Atul Kumar Pandey is an election researcher.

Defying all exit polls as well as election pundits, the BJP wrested Haryana for the third consecutive time—and entirely on its own. It secured a simple majority, winning 48 seats in the 90-member Assembly.

The outcome shows that the election was largely a bipolar one, with both national parties securing 79.03 per cent of the vote share between themselves and around 11.64 per cent going to independent candidates. The regional parties were more or less sidelined in this election.

The Congress, which was expected to win due to a range of reasons, including a perceived anti-incumbency, secured 37 seats, 9 less than the simple majority required to form the government. If it was some solace, the party secured six more seats than its 2019 tally and bettered its vote share by 12 percentage points.

Politically, the results have been a major setback to former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, under whose leadership the election was fought. The reasons why the Congress could not make a mark are manifold. Among them are the Congress’ failure to assess the extent of anti-incumbency, the infighting in the party, the high command’s interference in candidate selection that possibly led to poor picks, the party’s obduracy to go it alone sans alliances, and just plain hubris. It is likely that the party was overconfident of a victory after it won 5 of the State’s 10 seats in the Lok Sabha election. At the time, it was in an alliance with the AAP and the Left. In the Assembly polls, however, it preferred to stand on its own, save for a seat-sharing arrangement with the CPI(M) for the Bhiwani seat.

Close contest between national parties

The contest between the two national parties was close, with the BJP having secured 39.94 per cent of the vote share and the Congress 39.09 per cent. In Ucchana Kalan where the BJP candidate narrowly defeated former Hisar MP Brajendra Singh, the victory margin was as small as 32 votes. The highest margin, of over 98,000 votes, was secured by the Congress’ Mamman Khan who won the Ferozepur Jhirka seat with a total of 1,30,497 votes. Thirteen women were elected this time: five from the BJP, seven from the Congress and one Independent.

Also Read | BJP scores hat-trick in Haryana, NC-Congress combine sweeps Jammu and Kashmir

The vote share of both parties suggests that held on to their support base and also added a bit more, edging out the regional parties. The BJP bettered its 2019 vote share by 2.94 per cent. Both parties improved their vote shares considerably at the expense of regional parties such as the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and even the Aam Aadmi Party.

Congress, BJP gain at JJP’s expense

The JJP, as Frontline had written earlier, was reduced to a cipher, failing to win even a single seat. Its alliance with the Aazad Samaj Party did not yield any dividends. Its vote share fell to less than 1 per cent from 14.84 per cent in 2019, when it had won 10 seats and formed the government along with the BJP. The gains of the Congress and partly of the BJP seem to have come entirely at the expense of the JJP. Dushyant Chautala, the JJP chief, came a poor fifth in Ucchana Kalan.

The INLD too was confined to two seats in Sirsa but in contrast to its breakaway party, the JJP, it bettered its vote share. The INLD, which had an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), secured 5.96 per cent of the vote share, denting the Jat-Dalit vote base to an extent that otherwise would have benefitted the Congress. Abhay Chautala, the INLD national general secretary, lost the Ellenabad seat to the Congress’ Bharat Beniwal by over 14,000 votes. Chautala had been winning this seat from 2010 onwards.

On the whole, the prominent winners include the outgoing Haryana Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Olympian Vinesh Phogat, Aditya Surjewala, Shruti Choudhry, Jindal Group chairperson Savitri Jindal, Arjun Chautala, and outgoing Home Minister Anil Vij. Vij retained the Ambala Cantt seat for the fourth time defeating his nearest rival Chitra Sarwara, a Congress rebel who contested as an Independent, by 7,277 votes. It is possible that had there been no rebel candidate, the results would have swung in favour of the Congress. The official Congress candidate, who got slightly over 14,000 votes, forfeited his security deposit.

A total of 17 sitting Congress candidates lost in the election. Prominent among those who lost across parties include Abhay Chautala, Dushyant Chautala, Bhavya Bishnoi, outgoing Haryana Speaker Gian Chand Gupta, Captain Abhimanyu, and O.P. Dhankar. Five outgoing Ministers lost in this election, including prominent Jat leaders in the BJP such as Captain Abhimanyu and O.P. Dhankar.

Hooda has much to answer for

The outcome in Haryana was a surprise even for the BJP. It could not have bargained for a better result. As for the Congress, its State leadership under Hooda has a lot to answer for. Sources said that some five candidates who were picks of the Congress high command lost. The expected Jat-Dalit consolidation also did not take place to the desired extent in favour of the Congress as this vote got diversified among other parties, especially the INLD-BSP which together secured a vote share of 6.96 per cent.

It also cannot be said that the BJP got most of the non-Jat vote in the State. It has been argued that some of its prominent Jat candidates like O.P. Dhankar or Captain Abhimanyu would not have lost had they received the full backing of the non-Jat votes in their respective constituencies.

Also Read | Haryana: Caste as the swing factor

Likewise, the defeat of almost all the sitting Ministers barring Chief Minister Saini needs explanation. They would have won if all it took was smart social engineering in the nature of a non-Jat OBC consolidation behind the BJP. Similarly, it cannot be said that the Congress secured only the votes of the Jats or that the Dalits moved away from the party because Ambala MP Kumari Selja was sidelined. Of the 17 reserved constituencies, the Congress won in 9 and the BJP in 8.

In Ambala, Selja’s own Lok Sabha constituency, the Congress won all the segments barring the Ambala Cantt seat. It lost this seat only because of a rebel Congress candidate. But this candidate’s father, who was the official Congress candidate from Ambala city, won.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the INDIA bloc as a whole had secured 47.61 per cent of the vote share, with the Congress alone getting 43.67 per cent. In contrast, the BJP secured 46.11 per cent on its own, without any alliance. The Congress was perhaps optimistic because it had secured a lead in 46 Assembly segments compared to the BJP’s 44. But then, overconfidence always has a price.

The BJP coasted towards a hat-trick win with its biggest tally in Haryana and the National Conference (NC)-Congress combine was set to form the government in Jammu and Kashmir, voters in both places giving the victors a decisive edge as counting day progressed with many a surprise on October 8.

One State, one Union Territory, and three main stakeholders. Bucking exit poll predictions and pollsters in the first elections after the June 2024 Lok Sabha verdict, the results threw up a mixed bag for the BJP, sobering lessons for the Congress but clear-cut unambiguous victory for the NC, which led the alliance to power in Jammu and Kashmir.

With wins or leads in 48 of the 90 seats, according to the Election Commission website, Haryana’s ruling BJP readied for a third consecutive term—after early morning trends showed it trailing behind the Congress. However, trends showed the saffron party ahead or winning only in 29 of 90 seats in Jammu and Kashmir.

If the results were a timely boost for the BJP ahead of the election in Maharashtra later this year, they were a massive downer for the Congress, hoping to consolidate its gains from the Lok Sabha verdict and had begun the morning with enthusiastic leaders distributing sweets.

Battling discord in its top leadership in Haryana, where it was expecting to come to power, the Congress had won or was leading in 36 seats in the State, five more than it got last time but far below the 46 needed to form the government. In Jammu and Kashmir, the party piggybacked on the NC to come to power but was ahead only in six of the 32 seats it contested.

Haryana: Writing on the wall

The party raised with the Election Commission the issue of an “unexplained slowdown” in updating results of the Haryana election and urged it to direct officials to update accurate figures so “false news and malicious narratives” can be countered immediately.

But the writing on the wall was loud and clear. As the vote count in Haryana oscillated between the ruling and the opposition parties with the morning hours delivering a nail-biter, the vote share was also tantalisingly close. Three hours after counting began at 8 am, the BJP was at 38.7 per cent and the Congress a little more at 40.5 per cent. By 3.45 pm, the Congress was down to 39.05 per cent and the BJP had inched ahead at 39.89.

“The Congress will get a majority. Congress will form government in Haryana,” veteran Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda told reporters in Rohtak earlier in the morning. Kumari Selja, his party colleague and a rival for the chief ministerial post had the Congress won Haryana, was also sure her party would emerge victorious. “Hold your horses. Congress will form a government with overwhelming majority,” she said. After that though, the party was mostly silent.

Among the party’s high profile winners was Vinesh Phogat, the wrestler-turned-politician who broke a million hearts when she lost out on her Olympic medals. She won the Julana seat by 6,015 votes. However, hers was also a seesaw battle for much of the day.

Also Read | Haryana: Caste as the swing factor

The BJP, which had 41 seats in the outgoing assembly, was triumphant with its largest tally till date. “I am confident of forming the government for a third time in Haryana. In less than 45 minutes, Ashok Tanwar joined Rahul Gandhi from the BJP rally… that shows the quality of infrastructure and roads the BJP government developed,” outgoing Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini said, tongue firmly in cheek as he took a swipe at his former party colleague Tanwar.

With the BJP set to form power, party leader Anil Vij also threw his hat into the ring. “In our party, individuals do not announce these things. Earlier, I had only made it clear that I am not averse to it [being named Chief Minister]. The decision will be taken by the high command,” Vij, who was set to win from Ambala Cantt after trailing in the morning, said.

Interestingly, the numbers in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir almost mirrored each other: both 90-member assemblies, the BJP winning or leading in the former with 48 seats and the NC-Congress-CPI(M) firmly ahead in the latter with a similar number (49).

Jammu and Kashmir: Clear victory for NC-led combine

The NC scored big in Jammu and Kashmir, where the Assembly election is being held for the first time since Article 370 of the Constitution was abrogated and the State bifurcated into two Union Territories. It won 41 seats (leading in one more seat) of the 51 it contested while its “junior partner” Congress bagged six of the 32 it fought. The BJP was leading in 29 seats, Independents in seven, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in four. Among those who lost her election was PDP’s Iltija Mufti, daughter of party president Mehbooba Mufti.

“I accept the verdict of the people. The love & affection I received from everyone in Bijbehara will always stay with me. Gratitude to my PDP workers who worked so hard throughout this campaign,” Iltija Mufti posted on X.

BJP candidate Devender Rana won from the Nagrota segment with the highest margin in the Assembly election. Rana, who had won in the 2014 Assembly election on the NC ticket, retained the Nagrota seat on the BJP ticket by a margin of 30,472 votes. His nearest rival, NC’s Joginder Singh, got 17,641 votes.

AICC general secretary Ghulam Ahmad Mir also won big with a margin of 29,728 votes, closely followed by Rana’s fellow NC defector to the BJP, Surjit Singh Slathia, who won by a margin of 29,481 votes from the Samba seat. Also among the prominent winners was CPI(M) leader M.Y. Tarigami, who won from Kulgam for the fifth time by defeating the former head of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), Sayar Ahmad Reshi, by over 7,800 votes. The AAP also opened its account in Jammu and Kashmir, with its candidate Mehraj Malik emerging victor in Doda by polling 23,228 votes against the BJP candidate Gajay Singh Rana’s 18,690 votes.

Baramulla MP Sheikh Abdul “Engineer” Rashid, who had made headlines after defeating NC’s Omar Abdullah earlier this year in the Lok Sabha election, however failed to make an impact, with his Awami Ittehad Party bagging just one seat in Langate, where his brother Khursheed Ahmad Sheikh won by a margin of over 1,600 votes.

The day, however, belonged to NC leader Omar Abdullah, who won from both Budgam and Ganderbal seats in the Valley he contested.

Ready for a second stint as Chief Minister—he was last Chief Minister from 2009-14—he told reporters that efforts had been underway to finish his party. “But those who wanted to finish us have been wiped out. Our responsibilities have increased,” he said. As the party readied for power along with the Congress, his father, NC president Farooq Abdullah, said categorically: “Omar Abdullah will be the chief minister.” The NC president also said the verdict was proof that the people of Jammu and Kashmir were against the abrogation of Article 370.

Also Read | Jammu and Kashmir: The battle that lies beyond elections

“The people have given their verdict and proven that the decisions taken on August 5, 2019, are not acceptable to them,” he said. “I am thankful to everyone that the people participated in the polls and did so freely. I am grateful to God for the results.”

Farooq Abdullah said the elected government would have to do a lot of work to end the “sufferings” of the people. “We have to end unemployment and address issues like inflation and drug menace. Now, there will be no LG and his advisors. Now, there will be 90 MLAs who will work for people,” he said.

(with inputs from agencies)