Washington, DC
CNN
 — 

Spending at US retailers fell in March as consumers pulled back after the banking crisis fueled recession fears.

Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not for inflation, fell by 1% in March from the prior month, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. That was steeper than an expected 0.4% decline, according to Refinitiv, and above the revised 0.2% decline in the prior month.

Investors chalk up some of the weakness to a lack of tax returns and concerns about a slowing labor market. The IRS issued $84 billion in tax refunds this March, about $25 billion less than they issued in March of 2022, according to BofA analysts.

That led consumers to pull back in spending at department stores and on durable goods, such as appliances and furniture. Spending at general merchandise stores fell 3% in March from the prior month and spending at gas stations declined 5.5% during the same period. Excluding gas station sales, retail spending retreated 0.6% in March from February.

However, retail spending rose 2.9% year-over-year.

Smaller tax returns likely played a role in last month’s decline in retail sales, along with the expiration of enhanced food assistance benefits, economists say.

“March is a really important month for refunds. Some folks might have been expecting something similar to last year,” Aditya Bhave, senior US economist at BofA Global Research, told CNN.

Credit and debit card spending per household tracked by Bank of America researchers moderated in March to its slowest pace in more than two years, which was likely the result of smaller returns and expired benefits, coupled with slowing wage growth.

Enhanced pandemic-era benefits provided through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program expired in February, which might have also held back spending in March, according to a Bank of America Institute report.

Average hourly earnings grew 4.2% in March from a year earlier, down from the prior month’s annualized 4.6% increase and the smallest annual rise since June 2021, according to figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Employment Cost Index, a more comprehensive measure of wages, has also shown that worker pay gains have moderated this past year. ECI data for the first quarter of this year will be released later this month.

Still, the US labor market remains solid, even though it has lost momentum recently. That could hold up consumer spending in the coming months, said Michelle Meyer, North America chief economist at Mastercard Economics Institute.

“The big picture is still favorable for the consumer when you think about their income growth, their balance sheet and the health of the labor market,” Meyer said.

Employers added 236,000 jobs in March, a robust gain by historical standards but smaller than the average monthly pace of job growth in the prior six months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, showed that the number of available jobs remained elevated in February — but was down more than 17% from its peak of 12 million in March 2022, and revised data showed that weekly claims for US unemployment benefits were higher than previously reported.

The job market could cool further in the coming months. Economists at the Federal Reserve expect the US economy to head into a recession later in the year as the lagged effects of higher interest rates take a deeper hold. Fed economists had forecast subdued growth, with risks of a recession, prior to the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

For consumers, the effects of last month’s turbulence in the banking industry have been limited so far. Consumer sentiment tracked by the University of Michigan worsened slightly in March during the bank failures, but it had already shown signs of deteriorating before then.

The latest consumer sentiment reading, released Friday morning, showed that sentiment held steady in April despite the banking crisis, but that higher gas prices helped push up year-ahead inflation expectations by a full percentage point, rising from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April.

“On net, consumers did not perceive material changes in the economic environment in April,” Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys of consumers at the University of Michigan, said in a news release.

“Consumers are expecting a downturn, they’re not feeling as dismal as they were last summer, but they’re waiting for the other shoe to drop,” Hsu told Bloomberg TV in an interview Friday morning.

This story has been updated with context and more details.

CNN
 — 

When customers at Silicon Valley Bank rushed to withdraw billions of dollars last month, venture capitalist Arlan Hamilton stepped in to help some of the founders of color who panicked about losing access to payroll funds.

As a Black woman with nearly 10 years of business experience, Hamilton knew the options for those startup founders were limited.

SVB had a reputation for servicing people from underrepresented communities like hers. Its failure has reignited concerns from industry experts about lending discrimination in the banking industry and the resulting disparities in capital for people of color.

Hamilton, the 43-year-old founder and managing partner of Backstage Capital, said that when it comes to entrepreneurs of color, “we’re already in the smaller house. We already have the rickety door and the thinner walls. And so, when a tornado comes by, we’re going to get hit harder.”

Established in 1983, the midsize California tech lender was America’s 16th largest bank at the end of 2022 before it collapsed on March 10. SVB provided banking services to nearly half of all venture-backed technology and life-sciences companies in the United States.

Hamilton, industry experts and other investors told CNN the bank was committed to fostering a community of minority entrepreneurs and provided them with both social and financial capital.

SVB regularly sponsored conferences and networking events for minority entrepreneurs, said Hamilton, and it was well known for funding the annual State of Black Venture Report spearheaded by BLK VC, a nonprofit organization that connects and empowers Black investors.

“When other banks were saying no, SVB would say yes,” said Joynicole Martinez, a 25-year entrepreneur and chief advancement and innovation officer for Rising Tide Capital, a nonprofit organization founded in 2004 to connect entrepreneurs with investors and mentors.

Martinez is also an official member of the Forbes Coaches Council, an invitation-only organization for business and career coaches. She said SVB was an invaluable resource for entrepreneurs of color and offered their clients discounted tech tools and research funding.

Many women and people of color say they are turned away

Minority business owners have long faced challenges accessing capital due to discriminatory lending practices, experts say. Data from the Small Business Credit Survey, a collaboration of all 12 Federal Reserve banks, shows disparities on denial rates for bank and nonbank loans.

In 2021, about 16% of Black-led companies acquired the total amount of business financing they sought from banks, compared to 35% of White-owned companies, the survey shows.

“We know there’s historic, systemic, and just blatant racism that’s inherent in lending and banking. We have to start there and not tip-toe around it,” Martinez told CNN.

Asya Bradley is an immigrant founder of multiple tech companies like Kinley, a financial services business aiming to help Black Americans build generational wealth. Following SVB’s collapse, Bradley said she joined a WhatsApp group of more than 1,000 immigrant business founders. Members of the group quickly mobilized to support one another, she said.

Immigrant founders often don’t have Social Security numbers nor permanent addresses in the United States, Bradley said, and it was crucial to brainstorm different ways to find funding in a system that doesn’t recognize them.

“The community was really special because a lot of these folks then were sharing different things that they had done to achieve success in terms of getting accounts in different places. They also were able to share different regional banks that have stood up and been like, ‘Hey, if you have accounts at SVB, we can help you guys,’” Bradley said.

Many women, people of color and immigrants opt for community or regional banks like SVB, Bradley says, because they are often rejected from the “top four banks” — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citibank.

In her case, Bradley said her gender might have been an issue when she could only open a business account at one of the “top four banks” when her brother co-signed for her.

“The top four don’t want our business. The top four are rejecting us consistently. The top four do not give us the service that we deserve. And that’s why we’ve gone to community banks and regional banks such as SVB,” Bradley said.

None of the top four banks provided a comment to CNN. The Financial Services Forum, an organization representing the eight largest financial institutions in the United States has said the banks have committed millions of dollars since 2020 to address economic and racial inequality.

Last week, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNN’s Poppy Harlow that his bank has 30% of its branches in lower-income neighborhoods as part of a $30 billion commitment to Black and Brown communities across the country.

Wells Fargo specifically pointed to its 2022 Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion report, which discusses the bank’s recent initiatives to reach underserved communities.

The bank partnered last year with the Black Economic Alliance to initiate the Black Entrepreneur Fund — a $50 million seed, startup, and early-stage capital fund for businesses founded or led by Black and African American entrepreneurs. And since May 2021, Wells Fargo has invested in 13 Minority Depository Institutions, fulfilling its $50 million pledge to support Black-owned banks.

Black-owned banks work to close the lending gap and foster economic empowerment in these traditionally excluded communities, but their numbers have been dwindling over the years, and they have far fewer assets at their disposal than the top banks.

OneUnited Bank, the largest Black-owned bank in the United States, manages a little over $650 million in assets. By comparison, JPMorgan Chase manages $3.7 trillion in assets.

Because of these disparities, entrepreneurs also seek funding from venture capitalists. In the early 2010s, Hamilton intended to start her own tech company — but as she searched for investors, she saw that White men control nearly all venture capital dollars. That experience led her to establish Backstage Capital, a venture capital fund that invests in new companies led by underrepresented founders.

“I said, ‘Well, instead of trying to raise money for one company, let me try to raise for a venture fund that will invest in underrepresented — and now we call them underestimated — founders who are women, people of color, and LGBTQ specifically,’ because I am all three,” Hamilton told CNN.

Since then, Backstage Capital has amassed a portfolio of nearly 150 different companies and has made over 120 diversity investments, according to data from Crunchbase.

But Bradley, who is also an ‘angel investor’ of minority-owned businesses, said she remains “really hopeful” that community banks, regional banks and fintechs “will all stand up and say, ‘Hey, we are not going to let the good work of SVB go to waste.’”

London
CNN
 — 

The British pound crashed to a record low last fall as investors rebelled against budget plans by former Prime Minister Liz Truss. Now, it’s enjoying a comeback.

Sterling hit its highest level against the US dollar in 10 months on Tuesday, topping $1.25 for the first time since June 2022. The pound, which has advanced about 3.3% versus the greenback since the start of 2023, is the best-performing currency among developed economies this year.

The UK currency has been boosted by indications the country’s economy is holding up better than expected. Activity is now thought to have expanded 0.1% in the final three months of last year, up from a previous estimate of no growth at all. Gross domestic product growth in January has been estimated at 0.3% after dropping 0.5% in December.

This resilience is bolstering expectations the Bank of England will maintain aggressive interest rate hikes despite concerns about the health of the global banking sector. Rising rates can boost the domestic currency because they help attract foreign investors searching for higher returns.

Inflation in the United Kingdom also jumped to an annual rate of 10.4% in February, underscoring the need for the Bank of England to maintain its tough approach.

The pound plunged close to $1.03 in September 2022 after the Truss government unveiled plans to boost borrowing while slashing taxes, unleashing panic in financial markets that fueled fears of a recession in the United Kingdom.

The International Monetary Fund predicted in January that the UK economy would contract by 0.6% this year, while all other advanced economies would grow, if only slightly.

“There was a lot of pessimism being priced into the pound,” said Francesco Pesole, a currency strategist at ING.

But the sharp pullback in energy prices and China’s reopening have provided some relief about the economic outlook since the start of the year.

“There was a big re-rating of growth expectations around Europe, and that impacted the UK,” Pesole said.

The euro has also been lifted by these dynamics, rising 2.3% against the US dollar in 2023. The pound’s rally has been sharper in large part because its 2022 declines were more severe, according to Pesole.

Both currencies have been aided by the greenback’s sharp drop from highs reached last September as recession fears have percolated in the United States.

A lack of clarity around the Federal Reserve’s next steps has also restrained the dollar in recent weeks. Investor speculation has increased that the Fed could pause or stop rate hikes due to concerns about the economy following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank last month.

Jordan Rochester, a currency strategist at Nomura, said he thinks the pound could rise to $1.30 this year and “potentially higher.” But he still sees risks given the uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England’s plans and how rate rises will feed back through the country’s economy. And Pesole cautioned that currency fluctuations are often overdone when markets are choppy, as they are now.

“In a volatile market environment, moves are exacerbated,” he said.

Hong Kong
CNN
 — 

HSBC’s top brass defended their strategy Monday to frustrated shareholders in the lender’s largest market, as Europe’s biggest bank continued to face calls to be split up.

At an informal shareholder meeting in Hong Kong, Chairman Mark Tucker and CEO Noel Quinn took questions from investors on issues ranging from how the bank was approaching demands for an overhaul of its business to its purchase of Silicon Valley Bank’s UK arm.

In prepared remarks, Tucker and Quinn each reiterated the board’s recommendation that shareholders vote against a resolution on the docket for its annual general meeting in May that would force the bank to come up with a plan to spin off or reorganize its Asian business — the lender’s main source of profits.

Tucker said the board was unanimous in its opposition to the resolution, stating plainly: “It would not be in your interest to split the bank.”

He said the board had previously reviewed a range of options for restructuring the bank, and concluded that such alternatives would “materially destroy value for shareholders,” including dividends.

“Our strategy is working,” Tucker told the room of more than 1,000 shareholders. “Our current strategy is moving dividends up.”

HSBC has been facing calls to separate its Asian business from the rest of the bank over the past year.

Shareholders in Hong Kong — where HSBC is a mainstay of many retail investors’ portfolios — contend that the London-based lender’s performance has been dragged down by its businesses in other regions.

Quinn addressed those complaints head-on Monday, saying “our profits in Hong Kong and the UK are no longer being dragged down by underperformance elsewhere. The group is performing well as a whole.”

Pressed later by a shareholder on the issue, Quinn said a breakup of the bank would result in “significant revenue loss” because much of its business relied on cross-border transactions.

Investors have also been unhappy with HSBC scrapping its dividend in 2020, at the request of British regulators. They argue that if the lender cordoned off its activities in Asia, it would no longer have to expose Hong Kong shareholders to requests in other jurisdictions.

Christine Fong, a district council member in Hong Kong, said she represented about 500 small shareholders who had been affected by the dividend cancellation.

“Street hawkers, taxi drivers or teachers — they all relied on the dividend to pay for their regular expenses, like mortgage, insurance payments, school fees,” Fong told CNN.

“That’s why, three years ago, what HSBC did upset those small minority shareholders.”

Fong has now joined calls for shareholders to vote in favor of the proposal for the bank to spin off its Asian business, despite the lender bringing back its dividend in 2021, albeit at a lower level.

Ken Lui, an activist shareholder in Hong Kong who put the resolution together, doubled down on his call for support ahead of the meeting Monday.

The resolution will require 75% of votes to be passed in May, but “nothing is impossible,” he told reporters outside the meeting venue.

Lui, who said he personally held a stake worth 100 million Hong Kong dollars ($12.7 million), laid out plans for his team to focus on “targeted outreach to institutional shareholders to present our case and gain their support.”

His group will also canvass 18 districts of Hong Kong “to tell HSBC shareholders that they finally have a chance to speak for themselves and protect their rights through voting,” he added.

HSBC is also facing pressure from its largest shareholder.

Ping An

(PNGAY), China’s biggest insurer, holds an 8% stake in HSBC and has backed calls for the bank to rethink its structure.

In a series of remarks made public by the Chinese firm last November, Huang Yong, chairman of Ping An’s asset management arm, said “we will support any initiatives including a spinoff that are conducive to improve HSBC’s performance and value.”

Since then, the insurance giant’s views haven’t changed, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The source told CNN that Ping An has been calling for HSBC to explore a reorganization, with an eye on boosting its valuation and simplifying its regulatory obligations around the globe.

The insurer has not recommended a specific path forward but will support any initiatives, including a spinoff of its Asian business, that could boost its stock performance or value, the person added. Ping An did not immediately respond to a request for comment on how it planned to vote at the upcoming general meeting.

HSBC’s leaders were also asked Monfday why the bank had scooped up the British unit of SVB following the stunning collapse of its parent in the United States. The purchase was made for £1 ($1.20) last month, just days after SVB had folded.

Critics have questioned HSBC’s ability to perform adequate due diligence on SVB UK’s customers because of how quickly the deal came together.

“Did HSBC look into the clients of SVB in detail? Say, the financial statement — whether they can pay back the loan?” said Fong.

Quinn and Tucker defended the acquisition, calling it a good business opportunity that allowed the bank to gain hundreds of innovative startups as customers. They pushed back on the notion that management hadn’t had time to carry out proper due diligence.

Tucker also weighed in on recent tumult in the banking industry, saying he did not expect an “immediate impact” on HSBC.

“After the collapse of a number of smaller regional banks and the takeover of Credit Suisse, the share prices of all banks have been suppressed,” he noted.

But he said he did not believe such developments represented “a systemic risk” to the sector. “I do expect a period of uncertainty” before nerves settle, he added.