In 2015, when Arvind Kejriwal was sworn in as Chief Minister after a historic win, he sang an old Hindi film song at New Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan: “Insaan ka insaan se ho bhaichara, yehi paigham hamara” (Let there be brotherhood between humankind, that is our message). In 2020, when Kerjriwal faced a communal campaign during the protests against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), he ducked the Hindu-Muslim trap the BJP had set for him, and won handsomely again. But in 2025 the AAP seems to believe that communalism is a social reality, that the BJP’s Hindutva campaign is so high-pitched and mainstream for some voters that it must hit back in the same way.

Things have changed in New Delhi over the past five years. Just weeks after the 2020 election, in the aftermath of the anti-CAA protests that had begun in Shaheen Bagh, there were riots in the north-eastern parts of the city, which claimed 53 lives; in 2022, there were clashes in the Jahangirpuri area when derogatory slogans were raised before a mosque during a Hanuman Jayanti procession; and in January 2024, during the inauguration of the Ram Mandir at Ayodhya, there was a scuffle in the Kalindi Kunj area when saffron storm troopers on motorbikes passed a mosque raising slogans.

The undercurrent of the 2025 Delhi Assembly election, therefore, is a campaign designed to keep the pot boiling and simultaneously paint all opponents of the BJP as “appeasers of Muslims”. This effort appears to have succeeded as Rahul Gandhi keeps quoting from Hindu scriptures, presumably to underline his Hindu credentials. On the other hand, Kejriwal has always held that the BJP must not be allowed to position itself as the sole representative of Hindus.

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When 240 imams protested outside Kejriwal’s residence asking the Delhi government to release money to the Waqf Board since they had not been paid their salaries (Rs.18,000 a month) for 17 months, the former Delhi Chief Minister seized the moment to announce that he would also give temple pujaris and gurdwara Granthis Rs.18,000 a month. The fact that some of the imams went on to tell the media there could be political consequences for the AAP actually suited the party because it blunted the BJP’s charge of Muslim appeasement (more so because there are fewer imams than pujaris and Granthis).

Refugees and immigrants

But the big obsession of right-wing formations today the world over is immigrants, and so it is in Delhi. The rhetoric is woven around Rohingya refugees and immigrants from Bangladesh. The BJP began this round with the Lieutenant Governor ordering a drive to throw out alleged “illegals”. Since then, there are daily reports of people being taken to detention centres.

The AAP has responded with an eye-for-an-eye approach: It has accused the BJP of settling Rohingyas in New Delhi and then creating an issue around them. At the same time, Chief Minister Atishi has declared that schools must ensure that they do not admit illegal immigrants as it would mean taking away the rights of the people of New Delhi. Simultaneously, the AAP has accused the BJP of deleting names from voters list. There are thus many calisthenics on the Hindu-Muslim front but the AAP avoids using the word Muslim.

Hindutva is just one element. The bigger battle is being fought over direct cash transfer schemes. From the beginning, the AAP has been a believer in subsidy schemes that the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi once dismissed as revdis (freebies) but have now enthusiastically embraced. The bureaucracy and the police are being used to actively thwart the AAP’s attempts to register people under more schemes.

Consider what is happening in the shadow of the Qutb Minar. Mehrauli village, with its many monuments and narrow lanes, is believed to be Delhi’s oldest settlement to have been continuously inhabited. The new year saw a political slugfest begin here. Near a monument known locally as Bhool Bhulaiya (maze), AAP volunteers set up a table with a heart-shaped motif showing Kejriwal’s face to enlist women’s names for a direct cash transfer scheme launched by the party. Half an hour into the exercise, the police stopped it, forcing the crowd to disperse. The AAP volunteers then announced that they would reach out to the women at their doorsteps.

There is literally and metaphorically a maze in place in Delhi, with the ruling party, the AAP, not having control over the police, and the Central government continuing to pass laws (in the face of Supreme Court judgments). The bureaucracy does not answer to the elected government but to the unelected Lieutenant Governor. On principle, this is an assault on democracy and federalism that has been challenged in the Supreme Court, but for the moment it is what it is.

Let us not forget that all top leaders of the AAP have endured jail terms and are currently out on bail. Despite being battered, the AAP is seeking survival and success on a high-wire trapeze act. It had also come out with its list of candidates ahead of the announcement of the polling date by the Election Commission and has hit the ground running unveiling a slew of benefits and cash transfers.

Although the Election Commission announced only on January 7 that voting will take place in a single phase on February 5, the Lieutenant Governor had earlier issued instructions that registration for welfare schemes must not take place, which raises the ethical question as to why the BJP offers pre-election cash transfer schemes in States where it is in power.

The New Delhi contest is intense and significant for several reasons. After a handsome win in Maharashtra, a defeat in New Delhi could again slow the BJP’s momentum.

India’s ruling party seems to harbour particular enmity towards the AAP, clearly intent on succeeding in its project to crush the upstart. After all, the AAP has not only dared to defeat the BJP but has also emerged as the most successful political startup of contemporary times.

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The RSS is again expected to play a big role in the BJP’s campaign, with 2025 being its centenary year. In recent contests in Haryana and Maharashtra, the RSS is credited for course correction and phenomenal outreach work. The BJP’s dependence on the RSS has been emphatically seen in recent elections.

Since the Anna Hazare–led anti-corruption protest of 2011 and the subsequent formation of the AAP in 2012, the national capital has seen dramatic political events, in the course of which the AAP won two huge mandates: 67of 70 seats in 2015 and 62 of 70 seats in 2020. In the last two outings, the AAP’s vote share was over 53 per cent while the BJP’s dropped to 32 per cent in 2015 but rose to 38.5 per cent in 2020 (the Congress’ vote plummeted to 4.3 per cent). The RSS/BJP blueprint involves focussing on some seats where the margin of victory is small.

There are also segments of the population, such as Purvanchalis—Bhojpuri-speaking migrants from eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar—whom the BJP will particularly target through Hindutva pop and storm trooper campaigns.

Saba Naqvi is a Delhi-based journalist and author of four books who writes on politics and identity issues.

AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal during an event outside the party office, in Delhi on December 12, 2024. He announced the launch of the Mukhya Mantri Mahila Samman Yojna to provide monthly assistance of Rs.1,000 to women in Delhi and promised the amount would be raised to Rs.2,100 after the election.
| Photo Credit: PTI

The Aam Aadmi Party and the autorickshaws of the national capital share a special bond. In the 2013 Assembly election, which saw the AAP’s electoral debut, autorickshaws played a crucial role in its outreach. Posters featuring a determined-looking Arvind Kejriwal waving the broom—AAP’s election symbol—carried slogans such as “Is Baar Chalegi Jhadu” (The Broom Will Sweep All) and “Sheila Hatao, Kejriwal Lao, Dilli Bachao” (Remove Sheila [Dikshit], Bring Kejriwal, Save Delhi).

It was only apt, since autorickshaws were the common man’s mode of transport, and the newbie party had positioned itself as one formed by the “aam aadmi” (common man) to serve the “aam aadmi”.

The AAP made an impressive debut in 2013. It won 28 seats in the 70 Member Assembly and formed the government with support from the Congress. Though that government lasted just 49 days, the party went on to win 67 seats in the 2015 Assembly election and maintained its dominance in 2020 with 63 seats.

Wooing autowallahs

Now, in the run-up to the February 2025 Assembly election, Kejriwal, the party’s national convenor and chief ministerial face, has returned to the autowallahs. He and his wife Sunita shared a meal with an auto driver and family at their New Kondli home on December 10. Following this visit, Kejriwal announced his party’s first electoral guarantee: if re-elected, AAP would provide every auto driver with Rs.10 lakh life insurance and Rs.5 lakh accident insurance. “Auto drivers were instrumental in our first victory, and I trust they will rally for us again,” Kejriwal said.

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The AAP is aware that the coming election could be its toughest yet in Delhi. It is saddled with anti-incumbency and has been battling corruption allegations, especially regarding the capital’s excise policy. This seems to have forced the party to formulate a strategy where it gets back to the basics—play up welfare schemes, acknowledge challenges, and rebuild trust. This became evident when Kejriwal returned to the auto drivers. The party’s first election guarantee targets this crucial constituency.

Kejriwal faces allegations over the excise policy scam and criticism for the reportedly lavish renovation of his former chief ministerial residence at 6, Flagstaff Road, now occupied by Chief Minister Atishi. His renewed connection with auto drivers and images of sharing a meal with a driver’s family in their modest home aim to counter perceptions that Kejriwal and his party have drifted from their foundational values.

In the AAP’s analysis, Delhi’s women voters have been instrumental in the party’s major victories in 2015 and 2020. To maintain this support, Kejriwal has announced a monthly allowance of Rs.2,100 for women aged 18 to 60 who fall below the tax bracket.

“If the sisters and mothers of Delhi continue to bless us, nobody can stop us from winning more than 65 seats,” Kejriwal said while launching the scheme at the AAP headquarters on December 12. The AAP supremo, who remains the party’s emblem and chief vote-getter, has undertaken a padayatra in the capital. During these walks, he discusses government welfare measures and criticises the BJP for creating hurdles in Delhi’s development.

Ticket distribution

Kejriwal has maintained candour with party workers about the challenges of these elections. In party meetings, he has stated that ticket distribution would rest solely on winnability, warning sitting MLAs against taking their renomination for granted.

The party has already taken some tough decisions, replacing incumbent MLAs. Of the 31 candidates named in two lists, the party has dropped 16 sitting MLAs. The new lineup includes 13 defectors from the BJP and the Congress, with several candidates being councillors who have proven their mettle in their constituencies.

The party has repositioned key figures to counter anti-incumbency: former Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia and Vidhan Sabha Deputy Speaker Rakhi Birla have been moved to new constituencies following feedback about potential vulnerability in their original seats. In two cases, MLAs Prahlad Singh Sawhney and S.K. Bagga have been succeeded by their sons.

“Most of the candidates have been actively working with the AAP at the grassroots level and were selected based on feedback from the people of Delhi,” said Gopal Rai, Minister for Environment, Forest & Wildlife, Development and General Administration and AAP’s Delhi convenor.

Welfare in focus

The party’s campaign centres on its welfare measures: free electricity and water, education, healthcare, free bus rides for women, pilgrimage schemes for the elderly, and now the cash transfer scheme for women. Its “Revdi Par Charcha” (discussion on freebies) initiative engages party workers in citywide meetings to gather public feedback on these schemes. The party has chosen the term “revdis” (freebies), aiming to counter the BJP’s criticism about vote-buying through welfare programmes.

“Over 2,000 meetings are being held daily as part of ‘Revdi Par Charcha’. We are discussing the Delhi government’s achievements under Arvind Kejriwal’s leadership. We’re also conducting separate programmes focussed on women’s issues,” Rai said.

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While targeting the BJP, the AAP remains watchful of the Congress’s potential resurgence in the upcoming election. A Congress recovery could damage AAP’s prospects, as AAP’s Delhi growth has largely come at Congress’s expense, having captured its traditional vote bank of Muslims, Dalits, and residents of unauthorised colonies and slums.

“The Congress’ vote share was negligible in the last two elections. However, any recovery would dent the AAP’s share, making it harder for them to secure a convincing victory,” said Abhay Kumar Dubey, Professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

Clearly, the AAP realises this election’s unprecedented challenges. The party knows it needs at least 50 seats to vindicate itself against corruption allegations and criticism that it has abandoned its founding principles of honest and transparent governance.