The BJP coasted towards a hat-trick win with its biggest tally in Haryana and the National Conference (NC)-Congress combine was set to form the government in Jammu and Kashmir, voters in both places giving the victors a decisive edge as counting day progressed with many a surprise on October 8.

One State, one Union Territory, and three main stakeholders. Bucking exit poll predictions and pollsters in the first elections after the June 2024 Lok Sabha verdict, the results threw up a mixed bag for the BJP, sobering lessons for the Congress but clear-cut unambiguous victory for the NC, which led the alliance to power in Jammu and Kashmir.

With wins or leads in 48 of the 90 seats, according to the Election Commission website, Haryana’s ruling BJP readied for a third consecutive term—after early morning trends showed it trailing behind the Congress. However, trends showed the saffron party ahead or winning only in 29 of 90 seats in Jammu and Kashmir.

If the results were a timely boost for the BJP ahead of the election in Maharashtra later this year, they were a massive downer for the Congress, hoping to consolidate its gains from the Lok Sabha verdict and had begun the morning with enthusiastic leaders distributing sweets.

Battling discord in its top leadership in Haryana, where it was expecting to come to power, the Congress had won or was leading in 36 seats in the State, five more than it got last time but far below the 46 needed to form the government. In Jammu and Kashmir, the party piggybacked on the NC to come to power but was ahead only in six of the 32 seats it contested.

Haryana: Writing on the wall

The party raised with the Election Commission the issue of an “unexplained slowdown” in updating results of the Haryana election and urged it to direct officials to update accurate figures so “false news and malicious narratives” can be countered immediately.

But the writing on the wall was loud and clear. As the vote count in Haryana oscillated between the ruling and the opposition parties with the morning hours delivering a nail-biter, the vote share was also tantalisingly close. Three hours after counting began at 8 am, the BJP was at 38.7 per cent and the Congress a little more at 40.5 per cent. By 3.45 pm, the Congress was down to 39.05 per cent and the BJP had inched ahead at 39.89.

“The Congress will get a majority. Congress will form government in Haryana,” veteran Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda told reporters in Rohtak earlier in the morning. Kumari Selja, his party colleague and a rival for the chief ministerial post had the Congress won Haryana, was also sure her party would emerge victorious. “Hold your horses. Congress will form a government with overwhelming majority,” she said. After that though, the party was mostly silent.

Among the party’s high profile winners was Vinesh Phogat, the wrestler-turned-politician who broke a million hearts when she lost out on her Olympic medals. She won the Julana seat by 6,015 votes. However, hers was also a seesaw battle for much of the day.

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The BJP, which had 41 seats in the outgoing assembly, was triumphant with its largest tally till date. “I am confident of forming the government for a third time in Haryana. In less than 45 minutes, Ashok Tanwar joined Rahul Gandhi from the BJP rally… that shows the quality of infrastructure and roads the BJP government developed,” outgoing Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini said, tongue firmly in cheek as he took a swipe at his former party colleague Tanwar.

With the BJP set to form power, party leader Anil Vij also threw his hat into the ring. “In our party, individuals do not announce these things. Earlier, I had only made it clear that I am not averse to it [being named Chief Minister]. The decision will be taken by the high command,” Vij, who was set to win from Ambala Cantt after trailing in the morning, said.

Interestingly, the numbers in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir almost mirrored each other: both 90-member assemblies, the BJP winning or leading in the former with 48 seats and the NC-Congress-CPI(M) firmly ahead in the latter with a similar number (49).

Jammu and Kashmir: Clear victory for NC-led combine

The NC scored big in Jammu and Kashmir, where the Assembly election is being held for the first time since Article 370 of the Constitution was abrogated and the State bifurcated into two Union Territories. It won 41 seats (leading in one more seat) of the 51 it contested while its “junior partner” Congress bagged six of the 32 it fought. The BJP was leading in 29 seats, Independents in seven, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in four. Among those who lost her election was PDP’s Iltija Mufti, daughter of party president Mehbooba Mufti.

“I accept the verdict of the people. The love & affection I received from everyone in Bijbehara will always stay with me. Gratitude to my PDP workers who worked so hard throughout this campaign,” Iltija Mufti posted on X.

BJP candidate Devender Rana won from the Nagrota segment with the highest margin in the Assembly election. Rana, who had won in the 2014 Assembly election on the NC ticket, retained the Nagrota seat on the BJP ticket by a margin of 30,472 votes. His nearest rival, NC’s Joginder Singh, got 17,641 votes.

AICC general secretary Ghulam Ahmad Mir also won big with a margin of 29,728 votes, closely followed by Rana’s fellow NC defector to the BJP, Surjit Singh Slathia, who won by a margin of 29,481 votes from the Samba seat. Also among the prominent winners was CPI(M) leader M.Y. Tarigami, who won from Kulgam for the fifth time by defeating the former head of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), Sayar Ahmad Reshi, by over 7,800 votes. The AAP also opened its account in Jammu and Kashmir, with its candidate Mehraj Malik emerging victor in Doda by polling 23,228 votes against the BJP candidate Gajay Singh Rana’s 18,690 votes.

Baramulla MP Sheikh Abdul “Engineer” Rashid, who had made headlines after defeating NC’s Omar Abdullah earlier this year in the Lok Sabha election, however failed to make an impact, with his Awami Ittehad Party bagging just one seat in Langate, where his brother Khursheed Ahmad Sheikh won by a margin of over 1,600 votes.

The day, however, belonged to NC leader Omar Abdullah, who won from both Budgam and Ganderbal seats in the Valley he contested.

Ready for a second stint as Chief Minister—he was last Chief Minister from 2009-14—he told reporters that efforts had been underway to finish his party. “But those who wanted to finish us have been wiped out. Our responsibilities have increased,” he said. As the party readied for power along with the Congress, his father, NC president Farooq Abdullah, said categorically: “Omar Abdullah will be the chief minister.” The NC president also said the verdict was proof that the people of Jammu and Kashmir were against the abrogation of Article 370.

Also Read | Jammu and Kashmir: The battle that lies beyond elections

“The people have given their verdict and proven that the decisions taken on August 5, 2019, are not acceptable to them,” he said. “I am thankful to everyone that the people participated in the polls and did so freely. I am grateful to God for the results.”

Farooq Abdullah said the elected government would have to do a lot of work to end the “sufferings” of the people. “We have to end unemployment and address issues like inflation and drug menace. Now, there will be no LG and his advisors. Now, there will be 90 MLAs who will work for people,” he said.

(with inputs from agencies)