The Election Commission of India has announced the schedule for the Maharashtra Assembly election. Voting will take place in a single phase on November 20, with the counting on November 23. The current Assembly’s tenure ends on November 26, so the oath-taking ceremony for newly elected MLAs must be completed before that date. While the last five Assembly elections in Maharashtra were held in October, this marks the first time voting will occur in November, near the end of the Assembly’s term. An electorate of 9.59 crore voters (4.95 crore men and 4.64 crore women) will decide the fate of candidates across 288 constituencies. Nearly 19.48 lakh are first-time voters. As many as 25 seats are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs) and 29 for the Scheduled Castes (SCs).

Following the Haryana Assembly election results on October 8, in which the ruling BJP trumped the Congress despite the perceived widespread anti-incumbency sentiment, political pundits have been quick to draw parallels between the two States and see the Haryana result as a pointer to the possibilities in Maharashtra. However, caste dynamics and agrarian issues, mostly involving the dominant Jat community, differ in both States. Moreover, in Maharashtra, the focus will be on the State’s progressive identity, legacy of social justice politics, shifting political dynamics, and declining social indicators.

Political stability will be an important factor in the election. Between 2019 and 2024, Maharashtra saw three Chief Ministers, one of whom was in office for only 70 hours (Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP). The past five years also saw four Deputy Chief Ministers, with Ajit Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) being sworn in three times (from two different political parties). Besides Pawar, Fadnavis too is a Deputy Chief Minister in this government.

The split within the Shiv Sena (into the Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde factions) and the NCP (into the Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar factions) has increased the number of key political players to six, and this election could well decide which faction of these parties truly represents the cadre.

In the recent Lok Sabha election, Maharashtra voted in favour of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) consisting of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar), and the Congress. The MVA won 31 of 48 seats in the State, while the ruling Mahayuti (the Shiv Sena led by Shinde, the BJP, and the NCP led by Ajit Pawar) could win only 17. The Congress increased its tally from just 1 seat in the 2019 election to 13 this time. The BJP’s tally fell from 23 to 9. The Shiv Sena (UBT) won 9 seats, two more than the Shinde-led faction. The NCP(SP) won 8 seats, and Ajit Pawar’s party only 1. An Independent who won extended support to the Congress.

The MVA’s success is attributed to the BJP’s ambivalence over the Maratha reservation issue, the agricultural crisis, and subnationalism. These issues will be potent in the Assembly election too. The Maratha community, which accounts for 30 per cent of the State’s population, has been agitating since August last year for reservation.

Also Read | Haryana’s surprise election result: A sign of things to come in Maharashtra?

Their leader, Manoj Jarange-Patil, went on a fast demanding the Kunbi certificate for Marathas of the Marathwada region, which would help them get reservation in jobs and education.

Kunbis belong to the Other Backward Classes (OBCs). Chief Minister Shinde promised them reservation in the OBC category, but the OBCs objected on the grounds that it would encroach on their rights. The issue had an impact on voting behaviour in at least 12 Lok Sabha seats, and the government’s failure to resolve the issue meant that the Mahayuti won only one of the 12 seats.

Jarange-Patil’s agitation has not lost momentum. On September 17, he went on his sixth hunger strike; he ended it eight days later because of ill health.

Cabinet’s approval of Justice Shinde Committee report

On September 30, the Maharashtra Cabinet approved the report of the Justice Sandeep Shinde Committee, which was constituted to expedite the process of issuing the Kunbi certificate on the basis of historical records. This is viewed as a significant step to appease the Maratha community ahead of the Assembly election.

Unlike in Haryana, where non-Jats rallied behind the BJP, the issue of reservation has sharpened the identity consciousness in many castes in Maharashtra. The fact that the Mahayuti government has accepted the Maratha reservation demand but has not yet implemented it is a sore point among them.

Then comes the issue of the Dhangar community, which now belongs to the OBC-Nomadic Tribes category, wanting ST status. The government has formed a committee to look into their demand, but this has disturbed the STs, who constitute 9 per cent of the total population. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Mahayuti (National Democratic Alliance) won only one of the four seats reserved for STs in Maharashtra, as against all four in 2014 and 2019.

Another issue that affected the BJP’s chances in the Lok Sabha election in Maharashtra was the falling prices of onion, cotton, and soya bean. The onion farmers’ crisis cost the Mahayuti eight Lok Sabha seats. The Union government has now suspended the export duty on onions. However, onion prices at Agriculture Produce Market Committees (APMCs) in Maharashtra have not improved much.

To placate cotton and soya bean farmers, who wield huge influence in 11 Lok Sabha constituencies, the government has offered to pay Rs.2,500 crore in subsidies to 65 lakh farmers. This is the difference in the market price and the minimum support price (MSP) for both crops. On September 30, the government transferred Rs.5,000 for an acre to every cotton and soya bean farmer. A farmer is entitled to subsidy for his crop on 2 hectares. These measures are aimed particularly at farmers of Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, once BJP strongholds that have since shifted their allegiance to the Congress.

Just as in Haryana, the agrarian crisis is of great significance in Maharashtra too. However, the election in the western State will be held when it is harvesting time for cotton and soya bean. More than the subsidies, the government will have to see that farmers get the desired price in this season. Managing the agricultural market in real time could pose a tough challenge.

Mahayuti’s trump card

What looks bright for the Mahayuti are the good monsoon season and the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin (Chief Minister’s My Beloved Sister) Yojana, a cash-transfer scheme that aims to reach 2.5 crore women aged between 21 and 65 with Rs.1,500 a month (see “Maharashtra’s Ladki Bahin scheme: Great expectations?”, Frontline website, September 26, 2024). Its leaders hope that this single scheme will change the “narrative” of the election. For the Ladki Bahin scheme, the government has already reached out to 1.85 crore women. But if the Mahayuti is seen as leveraging the government machinery, it could backfire.

What matters more is that voters seemed not to have taken kindly to the BJP’s political manouevres in splitting the Shiv Sena and the NCP in order to gain power. This was seen as an attack on Maharashtra by Delhi. The first sign of voter discontent manifested itself in the Lok Sabha election, although other issues such as the Ram temple, unemployment, and inflation too played a role.

Additionally, the relocation of industrial projects to Gujarat has raised concerns about the Central government’s neglect of Maharashtra. This becomes stronger with the connection of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah to Gujarat. MVA campaigns revolving around this could work to its advantage.

Then there is the polarising tactics of the BJP, with leaders such as Nitesh Rane making communal speeches at rallies. Fadnavis recently accused the minorities of engaging in “vote jehad” in 11 constituencies in the Lok Sabha election, where the party believes that Muslims voted en bloc for one party. Organisations affiliated with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh have also taken an aggressive stance over the recent communal tension in western Maharashtra’s Kolhapur (over removal of encroachments near the Vishalgad fort) and Konkan’s Bhiwandi (over rumours of stone throwing on a Ganesh idol immersion procession).

There will in all likelihood be three alliances in the election, with smaller parties such as Bachchu Kadu’s Prahar Janshakti Party (PJP), Raju Shetti’s Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana, and Sambhajiraje Chhatrapati’s Swarajya Sanghatana engaging in talks to form an alliance. Bachchu Kadu, who has been with the Shiv Sena, founded a sociopolitical organisation called Prahar in the early 2000s. It later became the PJP, gaining influence in the Achalpur and Chandur Bajar tehsils. In 2004, Kadu was elected to the Assembly and is now expanding his influence across 32 Assembly seats in western Vidarbha.

Shetti’s Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana is a splinter group of the once-strong farmers’ movement in the State. Shetti believes that farmers’ interests can be safeguarded without aligning with the major parties. As such, he contested the Hatkanangle Lok Sabha constituency in Kolhapur district. Although he lost, his organisation has a presence in 40 Assembly constituencies in the sugar belt of western Maharashtra.

Sambhajiraje Chhatrapati is the son of Shahu Maharaj, a descendant of the Maratha king Shivaji Maharaj. He has been trying to mobilise the Maratha community for reservation over the past three years. However, he lost prominence when Jarange-Patil entered the scene. He claims to have a sizeable influence in 120 Assembly constituencies in north Maharashtra, Marathwada, and western Maharashtra.

Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) have significant influence in different pockets of the State. Both leaders have already started announcing their candidates in various constituencies. Raj Thackeray supported the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha election, but he has decided to go solo in the Assembly election. Although his party has only one MLA, its influence is spread across some 65 constituencies in the Mumbai, Pune, and Nashik regions.

Also Read | Maharashtra’s Ladki Bahin scheme: Great expectations?

The VBA polled 2.75 per cent votes in the Lok Sabha election. It does not have any MLA. It is banking on the 11 per cent Dalit votes in the State.

Critics see the creation of a third front as the BJP’s ploy to split the MVA votes. But the Mahayuti’s seat-sharing has been problematic just as it was during the Lok Sabha election. If the MVA capitalises on this as an example of divisive tactics, it would be able to consolidate non-Mahayuti votes.

Dominant political families

Another significant shift in Maharashtra politics is the resurgence of the erstwhile dominant political families, which started with the Lok Sabha election and has gained momentum ahead of the Assembly election. Many of them who faced setbacks in the past 10 to 15 years hope to regain their hold in their respective areas and have joined hands overtly or covertly. (“Reviving a dormant legacy”, Frontline, April 26, 2024). Although it may seem to be to the advantage of the MVA, the outcome could be different if Mahayuti leaders portray it as a battle between feudal lords and the people.

Apart from the political alliances, ideological battles are also intensifying. The RSS has reportedly deployed senior office-bearers to coordinate with the BJP in the State. They are holding district-wise meetings to activate the organisational machinery.

Meanwhile, citizens’ initiatives such as the Bharat Jodo Abhiyan, Lok Morcha 2024, and Nirbhay Bano have started awareness campaigns among the people about the election. Haryana’s results may have given the BJP a shot in the arm, but it has definitely served notice to the MVA to get its act together.

As the clock ticks down to November 20, the coming weeks will show if the MVA can address the State’s complex issues effectively, or if the Mahayuti will follow Haryana’s path to victory in this crucial election.