Strategic Analysis: India-EU Trade Agreement Poses Existential Threat to Kashmir's Apple Industry

INTELLIGENCE REPORT: The recently negotiated India-European Union trade agreement, while positioned as a landmark economic partnership, has triggered significant sectoral vulnerabilities within India's domestic agricultural framework. Our analysis indicates that Kashmir's apple industry—a critical economic pillar supporting approximately 3.5 million livelihoods in the region—faces unprecedented competitive pressures. The agreement's provisions for reduced import duties on European apples are projected to lower landing prices by an estimated 30-40%, creating a direct price disadvantage for domestic produce. Market intelligence suggests this could destabilize the entire supply chain, from orchard-level growers to regional traders, potentially triggering economic displacement and social unrest in an already geopolitically sensitive territory. The strategic miscalculation appears to be a failure to implement adequate safeguard mechanisms or transitional support structures for vulnerable sectors. This development warrants immediate policy recalibration, including potential renegotiation of agricultural clauses or implementation of countervailing domestic support measures, to prevent the collapse of a strategically important industry with far-reaching socioeconomic and security implications.