Strategic Arms Control at Precipice: New START Expiry Threatens Global Nuclear Stability Framework

The impending expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the United States and Russian Federation represents a critical inflection point in global security architecture. As the final major bilateral nuclear arms control agreement approaches its terminus in February 2026, strategic analysts observe concerning developments: Moscow continues advanced testing of next-generation nuclear delivery systems, while Washington signals potential resumption of previously restricted missile testing programs. This convergence of events occurs amidst escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf region, where renewed nuclear concerns regarding Iran further complicate the strategic landscape. The potential dissolution of New START's verification mechanisms and numerical limits would mark the first time since 1972 that the world's two largest nuclear powers operate without mutual constraints on their strategic arsenals. This development threatens to undermine decades of arms control architecture and could precipitate renewed quantitative and qualitative nuclear competition. The timing coincides with broader geopolitical realignments, creating conditions where miscalculation risks increase significantly. Without diplomatic intervention to extend or replace the existing framework, the international community faces the prospect of returning to an unconstrained nuclear environment with potentially destabilizing consequences for global security.