Intelligence Assessment: El Niño Threat Emerges During Critical Monsoon Period, Posing Drought Risks to India

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated a developing probability of El Niño conditions coinciding with the upcoming monsoon season, though definitive clarity remains elusive until April. This meteorological phenomenon, characterized by anomalous warming of Pacific Ocean surface waters, historically correlates with diminished monsoon rainfall across the Indian subcontinent. Concurrent analysis from private weather forecaster Skymet reinforces this concern, citing early climate model projections that signal a likely El Niño event materializing in 2026. The convergence of these forecasts elevates the strategic risk profile for agricultural output, water resource management, and economic stability. A sub-par monsoon, as anticipated under such conditions, could precipitate widespread drought, impacting crop yields and exacerbating regional water scarcity. The current intelligence underscores a critical monitoring period through spring, with the April assessment window pivotal for refining predictive accuracy and enabling proactive contingency planning by governmental and agricultural stakeholders to mitigate potential socio-economic disruptions.